For November 24th 2009

For November 24th 2009

Questions and suggestions? Contact me at [email protected] Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy. CFD charts were generated using MetaTrader 4.0 with price data obtained from Google Finance. Beta numbers are obtained from Reuters.com.

Nikon Corp. (TYO:7731)

Beta: 1.58 Tokyo market was closed yesterday, so the week starts on Tuesday for Nikkei stocks. Having fallen for 7 days in a row, Nikon bounced off its 61.8% fibo retracement at ¥1577 and it looks set to end its losing streak. First objective will be ¥1,630, the 38.2% retracement level. Subsequent technical levels are ¥1,653, ¥1,675, and ¥1,704. Crucial resistance would be the pivotal ¥1,795 high which if broken would lead to a rally towards ¥1,909 or even back towards ¥2,010. To maintain the upside prospect however, support at ¥1,525 must hold. So far the fall stopped between the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement levels of the swing from ¥1,442 to ¥1,795. Also, we have a descending trendline and a rising trendline which formed a triangle. The upside of the triangle is seen at around ¥1,704 while the bottom is around ¥1,577. Whereas the triangle looks more like of a continuation pattern, the pattern is now on its fourth leg up assuming ¥1,557 holds. If this is the case, then expect another top to be formed around ¥1,704 before the stock falls again to complete the final leg which could be somewhere around ¥1,577 to ¥1,602. Thus, the expected sequence will be UP, then DOWN, then UP again once the triangle is complete. Translated into trading strategy, look to LONG with stop set below ¥1,525, and target set at ¥1,704. Once the target is reached, consider turning into SHORT position with stop set above

¥1,795 and target set at ¥1,602. The focus at the moment however, is to figure out the fourth leg. The SHORT position mentioned will be highly dependent on the result of the fourth leg.

Bank of Communications (HKG:3328)

Beta: 1.24 BoComm rallied on Monday after it bounced off 9.52 low set on Friday. This could mean the resumption of the corrective move from 9.1 which already reached 61.8% a few weeks ago. The stock must hold above 9.52 to keep its bullish bias with the focus set at 10.01/10.04 resistance and beyond 10.04 will validate a zigzag pattern up with the projected end points at 10.10 (0.618x), 10.45 (1x) and 11.03 (1.618x). Downside, supports come at 9.52, just above the 61.8% retracement at 9.46. More supports are seen at 9.32 and between 8.7 to 9.1 we have several swing lows. Look to enter LONG position with stop set below 9.52 and target set at 10.01/10.04 first. Once this initial target is achieved, we can aim higher at 10.23, 10.45, 10.52/10.58 by trailing the stop each time a resistance is broken. Alternatively, one can adopt a partial exit strategy instead of holding all trades altogether.

Bank Danamon, Tbk. (JSX:BDMN)

Beta: 1.29 Mostly stuck inside the trading range of 4,400-4,600 for nearly a month, BDMN is now closing into its trendline resistance around 4,525-4,550. It is too early to determine the direction of the stock, but the structure since 4,250 low suggests another corrective rally is to commence and this could be happening sometime this week. A break above 4,600 will trigger a shift of range by 200 points and this should point at 4,800. In addition, we have a set of fibo retracements at 4,675, 4,775, and 4,900. Downside, support at 4,225-4,250 will remain the key factor in maintaining the bulls’ dominance. Should this defensive line to make way, the larger corrective swing will follow and push the price towards 3,825 (38.2%). For now however, either play a range trade between 4,400 and 4,600 or to favor LONG with target set at 4,775-4,900 and stop below 4,225. Note that for sometime, I have been rounding off the fibonacci calculations both in retracements and projections to suit the analyzed stock’s price. For example, BDMN is of a fraction of 25, so I will round off the calculated levels to the nearest multiple of 25. This would give a better guidance in setting the applicable supports and resistances.

Kawasan Industri Jababeka, Tbk. (JSX:KIJA)

Beta: 1.58 KIJA attempted to rise on Monday, but eventually knocked off the intraday high and settled at 127. So far, the support at 124 (38.2% retracement) has been reliable to hold off the bears. However, it should be noted that it plays a more significant role now that a break below it will also mean a break of the rising trendline. On the upside, the descending trendline also became more solid as recent rally fizzled at 133, and this could set up a zigzag move down once 124 is cleared. Until then, the bias is slightly up following the rally from 109 to 133 and that the stock has been holding above 124. A move beyond 133 will set a zigzag structure as well, but biased upwards with objectives set at 139 and 148. From the tactical point of view, the best trade setup would be to exploit the LONG side where risk is just below 124 and the objective could be set at 130-133. From here, one can simply trail the stop upwards each time a higher resistance is hit, or utilizing the gradual exit strategy.

MARKET DATA – November 23rd 2009 HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX

Bank of China Bank of Communications Bank of East Asia BOC Hongkong Ltd Cathay Pacific Air China Construction Bank Corp. China Life Insurance Company Ltd. China Merchants Holdings Co. Ltd. China Mobile China Overseas Land & Investment China Petroleum& Chemical Corp. China Resources Enterprise, Ltd. China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. China TelecomCorporation Ltd. CITIC Pacific Ltd. COSCO Pacific Ltd. Esprit Holdings Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. Hang Lung Properties Ltd. Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. HK Electric Holdings Ltd. Hong Kong & China Gas Company Ltd. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. MTR Corporation Ltd. New World Development Company Ltd. PetroChina Company Ltd. Ping An Insurance Company of China Ltd. Sino Land Co. Ltd. Wharf Holdings Ltd. Hang Seng Index

Open High Low Close Prv Dy 4.75 4.82 4.72 4.81 4.72 9.59 9.83 9.56 9.79 9.60 33.30 33.45 32.80 33.00 33.10 19.00 19.10 18.94 19.08 18.78 13.64 13.92 13.46 13.70 13.52 7.15 7.43 7.13 7.42 7.11 38.45 39.45 38.45 39.35 38.45 25.10 25.20 24.80 24.80 24.90 77.10 77.15 76.30 76.65 76.55 16.92 16.94 16.74 16.90 16.74 6.70 6.77 6.67 6.68 6.67 24.90 25.60 24.90 25.40 24.85 38.60 39.50 37.75 39.30 38.30 3.51 3.53 3.46 3.47 3.49 21.55 21.60 20.95 21.30 21.15 11.02 11.16 10.92 11.04 11.06 53.20 53.45 53.20 53.35 53.30 6.60 6.92 6.60 6.73 6.60 30.00 30.00 29.65 29.80 30.00 55.20 56.00 54.70 55.35 54.30 42.00 42.30 41.85 42.15 42.15 18.72 18.82 18.62 18.74 18.70 53.40 54.00 53.40 53.85 53.55 6.84 7.00 6.78 6.97 6.75 26.80 27.15 26.80 27.05 26.90 16.20 16.38 16.06 16.34 16.18 9.88 10.06 9.88 10.02 9.95 70.90 74.00 70.70 73.25 70.25 14.40 14.60 14.32 14.58 14.32 40.80 41.35 40.50 41.00 40.45 22,541.69 22,794.13 22,376.36 22,771.39 22,455.84

Dy Chg 1.91% 1.98% -0.30% 1.60% 1.33% 4.36% 2.34% -0.40% 0.13% 0.96% 0.15% 2.21% 2.61% -0.57% 0.71% -0.18% 0.09% 1.97% -0.67% 1.93% 0.00% 0.21% 0.56% 3.26% 0.56% 0.99% 0.70% 4.27% 1.82% 1.36% 1.41%

Indonesia - Jakarta Stock Exchange

Astra Agro Lestari Tbk Adaro Energy Tbk Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk Astra International Tbk Bank Central Asia Tbk Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk Bank Danamon Tbk Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Barito Pacific Tbk Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk Bakrie TelecomTbk Bumi Resources Tbk Central Proteinaprima Tbk Ciputra Property Tbk Bakrieland Development Tbk Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Indika Energy Tbk Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Kalbe Farma Tbk Lippo Karawaci Tbk PP London Sumatera Tbk Medco Energi International Tbk Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Holcim Indonesia Tbk Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk Truba AlamManunggal E. Tbk Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk United Tractors Tbk JSX Composite

Open 22,700 1,710 2,425 33,250 4,700 1,990 7,700 4,500 690 4,750 1,380 850 157 2,825 73 280 295 3,225 2,200 11,900 26,900 1,900 126 1,290 570 7,850 2,775 3,875 15,700 1,650 7,450 9,050 150 820 15,700 2,487.78

High 22,950 1,770 2,450 33,350 4,725 2,025 7,750 4,500 690 4,750 1,380 880 163 2,875 74 290 300 3,250 2,200 11,900 27,250 1,900 130 1,310 570 7,950 2,775 3,875 16,000 1,650 7,450 9,050 152 830 15,700 2,494.83

Low 22,600 1,680 2,350 32,700 4,625 1,970 7,550 4,450 670 4,625 1,350 830 155 2,675 70 280 285 3,175 2,150 11,350 26,850 1,870 125 1,280 540 7,800 2,700 3,800 15,500 1,620 7,300 8,850 145 800 15,450 2,467.51

Close 22,750 1,770 2,400 33,150 4,650 2,000 7,650 4,500 690 4,700 1,370 850 163 2,750 72 290 295 3,250 2,200 11,600 27,150 1,900 127 1,290 560 7,900 2,725 3,800 15,900 1,630 7,400 8,950 148 810 15,450 2,481.42

Prv Dy 22,650 1,700 2,400 33,250 4,700 1,980 7,700 4,500 680 4,725 1,380 850 157 2,825 72 285 295 3,200 2,225 11,900 26,750 1,890 126 1,300 570 7,850 2,775 3,875 15,550 1,640 7,400 9,000 149 810 15,600 2,487.37

Dy Chg 0.44% 4.12% 0.00% -0.30% -1.06% 1.01% -0.65% 0.00% 1.47% -0.53% -0.72% 0.00% 3.82% -2.65% 0.00% 1.75% 0.00% 1.56% -1.12% -2.52% 1.50% 0.53% 0.79% -0.77% -1.75% 0.64% -1.80% -1.94% 2.25% -0.61% 0.00% -0.56% -0.67% 0.00% -0.96% -0.24%