For November 9th 2009

For November 9th 2009

Questions and suggestions? Contact me at [email protected] Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy. FX charts were generated using Alpari UK’s Metatrader 4.0 platform using its live data. CFD charts were generated using MetaTrader 4.0 with price data obtained from Google Finance. Beta numbers are obtained from Reuters.com.

EURUSD

Not exactly hitting the forecast level at 1.4617, EURUSD dipped on Tuesday to 1.4625 before it rebounded on the following day. Despite it fell off the daily price channel, the pair had managed to climb back as well. However, weak daily outlook weighs at the moment and that the bounce off 1.4625 might have been a mere corrective rally instead of building up momentum for subsequent rise. Upside, the resistances lie at 1.4917 and 1.4954. The first is the Thursday’s high, which was within proximity of Wednesday and Friday’s high and also situated near the 61.8% retracement level; while the second is the 76.4% retracement level. Only above 1.4954 will convince me that the downside is over. At the moment however, downward zigzag projection from 1.5059-1.4625-1.4917 is aiming at 1.4625 (0.618x), 1.4479 (equivalent), and 1.4222 (1.618x). So, while below 1.4954, look for another slide towards 1.4625. Above 1.4954 may trigger the bullish outlook and a rally towards 1.5059 may commence, subsequently aiming at 1.5159 and then 1.5200.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has been able to recover most of its post-GDP losses and ended the week at 1.6610. Since the last update last week, the pair had fell towards 1.6261 mostly as expected. It could not however, crack the key low at 1.6249 and subsequently rallied to 1.6635. At the moment, both weekly and daily charts look bullish. On the weekly scale, last week’s low was merely a retest of an old trendline, while the failure to break 1.6249 had set up two zigzag structures: 1.5707-1.66921.6249 and 1.6249-1.6603-1.6261. The smaller structure had met its equivalent objective at 1.6613, leaving its subsequent projection (1.618x) at 1.6830 to be tested in the coming week. This target is adjacent to the bigger structure’s projected 0.618x move at 1.6857. So, 1.6830/57 area will be the third resistance level after 1.6740 and 1.6692. Downside, we have no better supports than 1.6249 and 1.6261. To maintain the current bullish view, the pair must hold above 1.6249. Note that since 1.6261 low, the daily low has been rising. This obviously set Friday’s low at 1.6517 as the near-term support.

USDJPY

Well, the pair opened way down at 89.56 at last week’s open. Anyone who attempted to short at 90.80 would have to endure higher rally towards 91.30 first before the bearish pressure set in again, bringing the pair to hit 89.60 on Friday before it settled the week at 89.86. As we can see from the daily chart, USDJPY has been drifting farther from the recent peak at 92.32. Now, it is eyeing for 89.02, the next fibo retracement and later 88.42, the fibo projection of the zigzag movement off 92.32 high. Afterwards, it will be the key 88.00 that stands in the way towards stronger yen. Look for corrective rally early next week to enter SHORT as long as 91.30 resistance holds. Above 91.30 may indicate that we may have a flat correction in progress, setting the focus back to the 92.32 high.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (TYO:7267)

Beta: 0.95 Unable to follow up the rally during prior weeks, Honda set up a completed shooting star pattern which aims at the downside in the coming week. The recent top at 2985 retraced 61.8% of the fall from 3230 to 2590, and this will be the key resistance. Last week’s peak at 2865 will be the nearest resistance as the focus has shifted towards the ascending trendline support around 2700. The trendline had held up well so far when the price fell towards 2590, but now both the trendline and the 2590 low may be tested. Should the price falls below 2590, the next key support will be 2300/2345. Note also that the MACD on the weekly chart has started to fall. Look to SHORT with stop above 2985, aiming for 2700 first, then 2590 before finally the 2300/2345 area.

Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. (HKG:2038)

Beta: 1.36 There are two potential scenarios regarding FIH. The first is that the corrective rally might have ended at 7.87, which was approximately 23.6% of the entire fall from 27.70 to 1.57. The corrective rally since late October last year formed a 5-legged sequence and based on the fibo projection, the end of the fifth was just above 7.50, the 0.618x projection of the length of the first leg to the end of the third (1.57 – 6.30) from 4.60. If these assumptions are correct, the next move would be to retrace the entire move from 1.57 to 7.87 which aims at 6.30 first. From the daily chart, we can also calculate the trajectory of the zigzag movement from 7.87 – 6.80 – 7.79 at 7.12, 6.71 and 6.06. The second scenario is that there’s still one more attempt to rise beyond 7.87. This view is mainly due to the lack of support from the weekly MACD, then higher-high-higher-low pattern on the daily chart (5 consecutive candles so far), and also the absence of bearish divergence between the daily MACD and the price. First, the daily candle needs to set a lower low to break the higher-highhigher-low pattern; then a new peak will add the bearish divergence to the picture. While taking a SHORT position immediately bears some risk of getting wrong-footed, an alternative is to wait for the Friday’s low (7.31) to be broken first. This will at least negate the higher-highhigher-low pattern. Another alternative is to look at the possibility that FIH will score a new peak above 7.87 one more time and to go straight down afterwards. If so, this will add a bearish divergence into the picture. The problem with the latter is that if FIH is to go straight down, the opportunity will be lost. Either way, should a SHORT position is taken, the target will be as low as 6.06.

Bumi Resources Tbk. (JSX:BUMI)

Beta: 1.70 Still struggling around the pivotal 2300, Bumi Resources has yet given up its attempt downwards towards 1930 and 1825. The first is the 50% retracement level of the move from 385 to 3475 and also the approximate target for the confirmed head-and-shoulders pattern, while the latter is the 1.618x projection of the zigzag move from 3475 peak. Daily MACD is falling and there’s yet any bullish divergence to indicate that the bottom has been set, so stay bearish on Bumi for 1930 and 1825. Near-term, resistance lies at 2575 and later at the broken neckline and descending trendline at 2750. The bearish pressure will subside once the price rallies past 2750.

PP London Sumatera Tbk. (JSX:LSIP)

Beta: 1.28 The bearish divergence on the daily chart between the price and MACD painted a bearish outlook for LSIP. It appears that the 23.6% retracement at 7000 is likely to be tested once more. This time, a successful break will probably drag the stock towards the next support at 6250 or even the 38.2% retracement level of the rally from 1350 low at 5950. The nearest resistance is at 8000 before this year’s peak at 8750. Stay bearish for the coming session as long as 8000 holds, targeting at 6250 and then 5950.

MARKET DATA – 6/11/2009 JAPAN - NIKKEI 225

Advantest Corp. Canon Inc. Daikin Industries Ltd. Honda Motor Co. Ltd Kyocera Corp Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd Nikon Corp Nippon Oil Corp Nippon Steel Corp Nissan Motor Co Ltd Sony Corp Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd TDK Corp Tokyo Electron Ltd Toyota Motor Corp Nikkei 225 HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX

Bank of China Bank of Communications Bank of East Asia BOC Hongkong Ltd Cathay Pacific Air Cheung Kong Ltd China Construction Bank Corp. China Life Insurance Company Ltd. China Merchants Holdings Co. Ltd. China Mobile China Overseas Land & Investment China Petroleum& Chemical Corp. China Resources Enterprise, Ltd. China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. China TelecomCorporation Ltd. CITIC Pacific Ltd. COSCO Pacific Ltd. Esprit Holdings Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. Hang Lung Properties Ltd. Hangseng Bank Ltd. Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. HK Electric Holdings Ltd. HK Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. Hong Kong & China Gas Company Ltd. HSBC Holdings Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. MTR Corporation Ltd. New World Development Company Ltd. PetroChina Company Ltd. Ping An Insurance Company of China Ltd. Sino Land Co. Ltd. Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. Swire Pacific Ltd. Wharf Holdings Ltd. Hang Seng Index

Open 1,998 3,400 3,100 2,825 7,540 1,360 1,693 434 341 673 2,600 232 5,100 4,990 3,610 9,812.73

High 2,005 3,480 3,110 2,840 7,610 1,362 1,693 434 343 674 2,630 233 5,160 5,030 3,640 9,849.72

Low 1,960 3,390 3,070 2,790 7,500 1,316 1,644 422 338 657 2,580 230 5,050 4,870 3,500 9,767.00

Close 1,967 3,410 3,090 2,800 7,530 1,323 1,656 424 343 657 2,590 231 5,090 4,910 3,520 9,789.35

Prv Dy 1,958 3,350 3,050 2,785 7,430 1,352 1,644 433 336 663 2,550 230 4,980 4,850 3,580 9,717.44

Open High Low Close Prv Dy 4.64 4.66 4.54 4.61 4.54 9.54 9.73 9.54 9.61 9.40 28.40 29.40 28.20 28.70 27.90 18.20 18.58 18.20 18.42 17.84 12.44 12.72 12.44 12.68 12.32 96.50 98.00 96.50 97.25 95.70 6.87 6.90 6.76 6.77 6.70 37.50 37.70 37.25 37.45 36.70 25.20 25.30 24.70 24.70 24.90 74.50 74.80 73.20 74.10 73.25 16.90 17.00 16.86 16.96 16.58 6.84 6.85 6.76 6.82 6.73 26.60 26.80 26.10 26.35 26.05 36.55 37.20 36.50 37.20 35.95 3.49 3.52 3.46 3.51 3.43 20.10 20.50 20.10 20.35 19.80 10.90 11.08 10.80 11.00 10.58 53.10 53.45 52.90 53.00 52.20 7.70 7.79 7.31 7.40 7.52 29.90 30.60 29.90 30.15 29.80 112.80 114.20 112.80 113.60 112.60 56.50 56.70 56.05 56.25 56.20 41.65 41.80 41.60 41.60 41.40 140.00 140.90 139.40 140.00 137.70 18.20 18.28 18.00 18.00 17.92 86.65 87.20 86.50 86.85 85.25 54.00 54.40 53.60 53.75 53.35 6.50 6.51 6.46 6.47 6.35 26.95 27.10 26.90 27.05 26.65 16.56 16.90 16.56 16.74 16.42 9.89 9.98 9.82 9.83 9.67 71.50 71.90 70.65 71.35 70.15 14.36 14.78 14.34 14.66 14.18 115.00 116.50 114.70 116.30 113.50 93.50 93.80 92.15 93.15 92.10 42.30 42.45 41.90 41.90 41.65 21,866.72 21,931.36 21,372.99 21,829.72 21,479.08

Dy Chg Prv Wk 0.46% 2,060 1.79% 3,530 1.31% 3,150 0.54% 2,880 1.35% 7,750 -2.14% 1,404 0.73% 1,734 -2.08% 453 2.08% 353 -0.90% 672 1.57% 2,785 0.43% 237 2.21% 5,340 1.24% 5,240 -1.68% 3,660 0.74% 10,034.74

Wk Chg -4.51% -3.40% -1.90% -2.78% -2.84% -5.77% -4.50% -6.40% -2.83% -2.23% -7.00% -2.53% -4.68% -6.30% -3.83% -2.45%

Dy Chg Prv Wk 1.54% 4.54 2.23% 9.50 2.87% 27.80 3.25% 18.20 2.92% 12.74 1.62% 100.80 1.04% 6.81 2.04% 36.50 -0.80% 25.40 1.16% 74.00 2.29% 17.08 1.34% 6.72 1.15% 26.50 3.48% 35.65 2.33% 3.51 2.78% 20.20 3.97% 10.94 1.53% 52.60 -1.60% 6.99 1.17% 29.85 0.89% 111.30 0.09% 55.85 0.48% 41.50 1.67% 139.60 0.45% 18.90 1.88% 87.30 0.75% 55.35 1.89% 6.29 1.50% 27.85 1.95% 17.00 1.65% 9.60 1.71% 69.55 3.39% 15.16 2.47% 119.30 1.14% 95.55 0.60% 42.90 1.63% 21,752.87

Wk Chg 1.54% 1.16% 3.24% 1.21% -0.47% -3.52% -0.59% 2.60% -2.76% 0.14% -0.70% 1.49% -0.57% 4.35% 0.00% 0.74% 0.55% 0.76% 5.87% 1.01% 2.07% 0.72% 0.24% 0.29% -4.76% -0.52% -2.89% 2.86% -2.87% -1.53% 2.40% 2.59% -3.30% -2.51% -2.51% -2.33% 0.35%

Indonesia - Jakarta Stock Exchange

Astra Agro Lestari Tbk Adaro Energy Tbk Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk Astra International Tbk Bank Central Asia Tbk Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk Bank Danamon Tbk Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Barito Pacific Tbk Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk Bakrie TelecomTbk Bumi Resources Tbk Central Proteinaprima Tbk Ciputra Property Tbk Bakrieland Development Tbk Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Indika Energy Tbk Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Kalbe Farma Tbk Lippo Karawaci Tbk PP London Sumatera Tbk Medco Energi International Tbk Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam HolcimIndonesia Tbk Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk Truba AlamManunggal E. Tbk Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk United Tractors Tbk JSX Composite

Open 21,700 1,570 2,375 30,100 4,650 1,860 7,350 4,500 700 4,625 1,370 800 123 2,450 69 285 290 3,125 2,175 11,600 23,950 1,840 116 1,280 640 7,700 2,700 3,675 14,750 1,590 7,450 8,800 130 700 14,650 2,367.63

High 21,850 1,570 2,400 30,400 4,725 1,890 7,500 4,575 710 4,650 1,370 810 124 2,450 69 300 295 3,125 2,175 11,800 24,000 1,850 124 1,280 640 7,800 2,725 3,700 14,750 1,600 7,550 8,800 131 710 15,100 2,403.27

Low 21,550 1,540 2,300 29,850 4,625 1,840 7,300 4,450 680 4,575 1,340 790 119 2,325 67 285 280 3,050 2,125 11,500 23,450 1,810 116 1,260 620 7,600 2,650 3,650 14,450 1,580 7,400 8,650 125 680 14,600 2,367.63

Close 21,850 1,540 2,325 30,350 4,725 1,890 7,450 4,550 680 4,625 1,350 800 120 2,325 68 290 285 3,050 2,175 11,800 23,600 1,830 123 1,280 630 7,650 2,700 3,700 14,450 1,580 7,400 8,700 126 690 15,000 2,395.11

Prv Dy 21,500 1,540 2,300 29,800 4,600 1,820 7,200 4,425 690 4,550 1,340 800 120 2,375 68 285 280 3,050 2,150 11,450 23,600 1,820 116 1,260 640 7,650 2,650 3,650 14,450 1,550 7,350 8,700 126 680 14,350 2,367.21

Dy Chg 1.63% 0.00% 1.09% 1.85% 2.72% 3.85% 3.47% 2.82% -1.45% 1.65% 0.75% 0.00% 0.00% -2.11% 0.00% 1.75% 1.79% 0.00% 1.16% 3.06% 0.00% 0.55% 6.03% 1.59% -1.56% 0.00% 1.89% 1.37% 0.00% 1.94% 0.68% 0.00% 0.00% 1.47% 4.53% 1.18%

Prv Wk 21,650 1,540 2,275 31,300 4,575 1,850 7,100 4,550 710 4,675 1,390 740 113 2,375 67 295 275 3,075 2,250 11,050 22,750 1,790 117 1,220 650 7,800 2,725 3,625 15,200 1,620 6,850 8,400 126 700 15,000 2,367.70

Wk Chg 0.92% 0.00% 2.20% -3.04% 3.28% 2.16% 4.93% 0.00% -4.23% -1.07% -2.88% 8.11% 6.19% -2.11% 1.49% -1.69% 3.64% -0.81% -3.33% 6.79% 3.74% 2.23% 5.13% 4.92% -3.08% -1.92% -0.92% 2.07% -4.93% -2.47% 8.03% 3.57% 0.00% -1.43% 0.00% 1.16%

Author’s Note I am adding the Indonesian stocks to the watchlist, but will remove six stocks from the Hong Kong watchlist: Cheung Kong Ltd., Hangseng Bank Ltd., HK Exchanges & Clearing Ltd., HSBC Holdings, Swire Pacific Ltd., and Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd. European and North American stocks are now off from my watchlist completely because I intend to focus on the Asian stocks. Each day, the analyzed stocks will be one from Japan, one from Hong Kong and two from Indonesia. I simply analyze the stocks from my watchlist, I do not own any of these stocks. As for forex analysis, I will still feature them but probably not on a frequent basis due to the continuous nature of the forex market. To reiterate my principle, the analysis will be strictly of technical analysis. I lack the interest on the fundamentals analysis and I am not interested to spend my time covering news. I hope the readers will be able to gain something from reading my writings. As always, should anyone wants to suggest something or send comments, please send an e-mail to: [email protected].