Thayer Cambodia And Vietnam Strategic Situation

Cambodia

Vietnam

Khmer (90%) Vietnamese (86%) Ethnic minorities overlap Cambodia-Vietnam border Khmer Krom Ethnic Vietnamese in Cambodia Vietnamese (Hoa people) in China

Geo-Strategic Setting Cambodia   Borders with Vietnam, Laos and Thailand   Asymmetric power relations with two neighbours   Maritime disputes with Thailand and Vietnam impact on development

Vietnam   Borders with China, Laos and Cambodia   Asymmetric power relations with one neighbour   Maritime disputes with China and Cambodia impact on development

Geo-strategic setting

• Border protection • Territorial integrity • Internal security and stability • Reform of RCAF

The unsettled problems relating to disputes on border, land and maritime territories, especially the conflicting claims to sovereignty over the East Sea, together with other nontraditional security issues such as: White Paper 2004

• Exchange of Defence Ministers (2003 and 2006) • IMET • President Ngueyn Minh Triet meets President Bush at the White House 2007 • US Navy port visits

December 1999 Land Border Agreement 227 sq. km disputed area China received 114 sq km Vietnam received 113 sq km Aim complete demarcation by end 2008 Reach new border management agreement end of 2008

Gulf of Tonkin Agreements on maritime boundary demarcation and fisheries (December 2000) Agreements ratified June 2004 April and December 2006 joint naval patrols

Beibu Gulf

Type 094 SSBN

Mekong Basin Subregion Cambodia and Vietnam are down stream states affected by up stream developments

Yunan province

China plans a cascade of eight dams. Two already built, two under construction and four to be built. Dams are entirely within China without consultation with downstream states.

Dams on the Se San River, Gia Lai province, have downstream impact on Cambodia

CAMBODIA   Monarchy   1993 Constitution: neutral and nonaligned   Coalition government   One-party dominant Cambodian People’s Party (CPP)   Ideology diluted

VIETNAM   Anti-imperialists –vintegrationists   Peaceful evolution   National interests   Fear of lagging behind   ‘rich people, strong country’   Comprehensive integration

Party/ Position

Commune Chiefs

1st Deputy Chiefs

2nd Deputy Chiefs

Council members

Total

CPP

1591

1125

185

5092

7993

SRP

28

403

963

1266

2660

FUNCINPEC

2

47

155

70

274

NRP

0

46

317

62

425

Two plausible outcomes: (1) authoritarian rule by entrenched CPP (2) loosening of system to become more pluralist.