Vietnam: A Review
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to United Services Institution of the A.C.T. July 5, 2006
Outline
1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On 2. The Military and Doi Moi 3. Vietnam’s Regional Role
1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On Economic Change • • • • • •
End of central planning Decollectivisation of agriculture Market economy with socialist orientations Encouragement of direct foreign investment Poverty reduction High GDP growth rates
Doi Moi: Twenty Years On Social Change • • • • •
Commercialization of services State control of religion Ethnic minority unrest Negative phenomena Spread of the Internet
Doi Moi: Twenty Years On Political Change • Regularisation of politics • New state Constitution (1992) and Electoral Laws • Enhancing the role of the National Assembly and rule by/of law • Administrative reform of state apparatus • Corruption
Tenth Party Congress April 2006
Nong Duc Manh re-elected Secretary General
Corruption • Nam Cam criminal network 2003 • Ministry of Transport, PMU 18 scandal 2006
Transparency International Corruption Index • • • • •
2001 75th of 91 countries 2002 85th of 102 countries 2003 100th of 233 countries 2004 102nd of 145 countries 2005 107th of 158 countries – Ranked above the Philippines, PNG, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Myanmar
2. The Military and Doi Moi Political Role • Defend the country and the socialist regime • Dual-role elites (party-military-government) • A bloc within the Vietnam Communist Party and National Assembly • Central Military Party Committee • ‘Tong Cuc 2’ – military intelligence
Dual Role Elites • Military delegates to 10th National Party Congress cast ballots for the party leadership • Military block on Central Committee (~10%)
General Phung Quang Thanh • Member of the Politburo (April 2006) • Senior LT GEN (2003) • Vice Minister of National Defence and Chief of the General Staff (2001-06) • Member of the Party Central Committee (2001-present) • Commander Military Region 1 • Trained in the Soviet Union
Minister of National Defence (June 2006)
The Military and Doi Moi • Politburo Resolution No. 2 (1987) – Withdrawal from Cambodia and Laos – Demobilisation – Budget
• Disciplinary Problems • Collapse of the Soviet Union
Vietnam’s Defence Expenditure 1990-02
The Military and Doi Moi
• • • •
Economic and commercial activities Military professionalisation Defence diplomacy Limited force modernisation
Defence Diplomacy •
Cold War alignments •
•
Non-Aligned Movement •
•
USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Yugoslavia
Defence relations with more than 60 countries (2003) • •
33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted
Defence Diplomacy • Accrediting of Defence Attaches • Protocol visits • Staff College/National Defence Institute exchanges • Goodwill visits – External Relations Department – Song and Dance Ensemble • Naval ship visits
High-Level Exchanges
Trends in High-Level Exchanges
Defence Diplomacy
Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand North Korea, Laos, Germany
Density of High-Level Exchanges 44% ASEAN 20% Traditional Allies 17% Major Powers China, United States, Japan
8% ‘New Europe’ 11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America and Others
Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005 • • • • • • • •
7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand 3 South Korea 3 United States 2 Italy
• • • • • • •
2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia 1 Japan 1 New Zealand
Memorandum of Understanding • Annual work plans – exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.
• Address specific bilateral issues – Border security (land and maritime) – MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay
• Combined military activities – Medical research – Search and Rescue – Coordinated naval patrols
Defence Cooperation Agreements • • • • •
India – (1994 and 2000) Russia (October 1998) Australia – post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs •
Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea and Germany
Vietnam’s Defence Expenditure, 1991-03
Procurement and Defence Industry Cooperation • • • • • • • •
Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities
Sales and Servicing Contracts
• • • • • •
Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003) Ukraine (2002) India (2002) Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland, Poland ASEAN States – Singapore Other Suppliers – Israel, North Korea
Air Force Modernization • Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22 fighter/ground attack aircraft • Su-30 preferred air superiority fighter – Funding a major constraint – May opt for less expensive Su-22
• Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles • Military communications satellite?
Air Force Modernisation
Czech L-39C Trainers
Su-27 UBK Flanker
MiG-21 Fishbed Upgrades
Su-22 M4 Fitter
4 Su-30 MKKs Fulcrums 2003
Air Defence
S-300PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) - 2003
Deterrence capability in South China Sea
Tarantul Class (Type 1241)
4 acquired from Russia in 1996-98
Tarantul 3 Corvette
Two Molnya 1241.8 FAC (M) delivered in 2005, eight to be assembled in Vietnam
Anti-shipping Capability Styx missile
Sunburn missile
BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)
2 acquired 1998 BPS 500 now under production in Vietnam
Yugo-Class Midget Submarine
Land Force Modernisation • Main Battle Tanks – Finland 70 (T-54 and T-55) – Poland (150 T-72)
• Multiple Rocket Launch System – Czech
• Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCs – Singapore?
Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher
Short Range Ballistic Missiles?
Scud C ballistic missile
Reportedly sold by North Korea
3. Vietnam’s Regional Role
• • • •
Political Bureau Resolution No. 13 (1988) 7th National Party Congress (1991) Membership in ASEAN and ARF Directions and Strategies for Defending Vietnam in the New Era – 8th Central Committee Plenum (July 2003)
Vietnam’s Neighbours •
Laos – ‘special solidarity and comprehensive cooperation’ •
• •
Cambodia – border security, MIAs China – border security • •
•
internal security,border control, MIAs
Military Region commanders Coordinated naval patrols
Thailand – maritime security
Defence Relations with China • Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1991) • Long-term Cooperative Framework Agreement (1999) – ‘looking to the future, boosting good neighborly friendship and exploring all-around collaboration’
• Coordinated naval patrols in Tonkin Gulf
Defence Relations with China • First round of consultations on defensive security (Beijing, April 2005) • Chinese Commission for Science, Technology and National Defence Industry delegation visits Hanoi (July 2005) • General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visits Beijing (July 2005)
Defence Relations with the United States • Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA) remains • Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1995) • Ministerial-level exchange visits • IMET – International Military Education and Training
U.S. Naval Port Visits USS Vandegrift, Saigon, November 2003
USS Curtis Wilbur, Da Nang, July 2004 USS Gary, Saigon, March 2005
Ministerial Exchange Visits
2003
2000
2006
Defence Relations with the U.S. • 15th Asia-Pacific Military Medicine Conference held in Hanoi co-sponsored by Vietnam and the U.S. (May 2005) • Prime Minister Phan Van Khai meets with President George Bush in Washington, D.C. ( June 21, 2005) • Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visits Hanoi (2006)
Conclusion • • • •
Bringing the ‘Military Back In’ VPA an important domestic political actor Military also a commercial actor Priority on naval, air defence and air force modernisation – South China Sea contingencies
• Potential regional role – ASEAN • Rising China – balance not containment
Future Developments • PNTR status with the U.S. • Membership in the World Trade Organisation • Host to APEC Summit • Visit by President George Bush • Non-permanent membership on UN Security Council • Modest contribution to UN peacekeeping?
Vietnam: A Review
Discussion Questions and Answers