Thayer Vietnam And Climate Change

Vietnam Carlyle A. Thayer

Climate Change and Regional Security Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, December 12, 2007

Vietnam’s geo-strategic position

13th Most Populous Country • 1

• China

• 1,321,851,888

• 2

• India

• 1,129,866,154

• 3

• United States

• 301,139,947

• 4

• Indonesia

• 234,693,997

• 5

• Brazil

• 190,010,647

• 6

• Pakistan

• 169,270,617

• 7

• Bangladesh

• 150,448,339

• 8

• Russia

• 141,377,752

• 9

• Nigeria

• 135,031,164

• 10 • Japan

• 127,467,972

• 11 • Mexico

• 108,700,891

• 12 • Philippines

• 91,077,287

• 13 • Vietnam

• 85,262,356

57th in GDP Rankings (US $m) • 2 • 4

• Japan • China

• 10 • 12 • 25 • 35 • 37 • 42 • 48 • 57

• India • South Korea • Indonesia • Thailand • Malaysia • Singapore • Philippines • Vietnam

• 4,533,965 • 2,234,297 • 805,714 • 787,624 • 287,217 • 176,634 • 130,326 • 116,764 • 99,029 • 52,408

Former US DepSec Defense  

‘Perhaps the greatest opportunity over the next 15 years lies in Vietnam, where political reforms need to complement the economic reforms already well underway if the nation is to reach its potential and contribute more to the overall effectiveness of ASEAN. ASEAN has been central to the fostering of a regional consciousness and is a driver of proliferating pan-Asian groupings.’  

Richard Armitage and Joseph Nye, February 2007

Former U.S. Defense Secretary  

‘[regarding rise of PLA] Washington must also maintain and expand U.S. alliances in Asia, including with Japan, South Korea and Australia, pursuing deeper military partnerships with the Philippines, Singapore, India and possibly Vietnam’.  

William Perry, April 2007.

• Red River delta the heartland • Central Mountain Range • Historic ‘march south’ • Settlement of the Mekong Delta • Regionalism • Provincial autonomy

Administrative Divisions 59 provinces 5 municipalities Hanoi Haiphong Da Nang Ho Chi Minh City Can Tho

Land Border December 1999 Land Border Agreement 227 sq. km disputed area China received 114 sq km Vietnam received 113 sq km Aim complete demarcation by end 2007 Reach new border management agreement in 2008

Gulf of Tonkin Agreement on demarcation (December 2000) Agreement on fisheries (2000) April and December 2006 joint naval patrols

South China Sea

South China Sea Territorial Claims

Off-Shore Oil Platform

Dam near Dalat

Incidence of Poverty

Human Geography                

Kinh 86% Tay 1.9% Thai 1.7% Muong 1.5% Khmer 1.5% Hoa 1.1% Nung 1% Others 4.1%

Central Highlands - Tay Nguyen

Inundation Zone

Inundation Zone

Inundation Zone

Exposed Population 5m SLR

Assets Exposed to SLR, Storm Surge and Subsidence

Population Exposed to SLR, Storm Surge & Subsidence

Climate Change & Disruptive Impacts Strong state and strong society   Traditional political cultured and ‘mandate of heaven’   Capacity for mass mobilization   Climate impacts will put strain on system   Unlikely to trigger disruptive internal change as long as state is competent in mitigating effects of climate change  

Search and Rescue

Search and Rescue

Flight or Fight?  

Flight Lowlanders in central region will push into Highlands sparking ethnic minority resistance   Ethnic minorities will flee to Laos/Cambodia   Mekong Delta farmers push into Cambodia   “South Vietnamese” will emigrate   Waves of boat people will not reach levels of 1970s   Chinese could flee south  

Complete State Failure? Complete state failure unlikely   Resilient rural society   Strong state   Provincial autonomy   Regionalism  

 

- the South/Mekong Delta -v- Hanoi

Social Resilience and Institutional Capital Dual role elite   Considerable capacity for communication, mass mobilization and maintenance of public order   Trajectory unified state not fragmentation   Village communal solidarity  

Aggressive War/Migrant Flows Cambodia and Laos too weak   Chinese migrants likely  

 

Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and beyond

Chinese state acquiescence   Regional integration a likely constraint   South China Sea an exception  

Vietnam’s External Engagement    

Climate change a non-traditional threat Layered multilateral strategy  

 

 

UN, WB, IMF, ADB, ASEAN, ARF, APT, APEC, East Asian Summit, NAM

ASEAN prime but not exclusive institutional vehicle Open to engagement with US & EU    

Opposed to exclusive arrangements US must be part of solution no part of problem

Appendix Climate Change and Regional Security Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, December 12, 2007

OECD 2007

OECD 2007

Top 10 Countries Exposed by Assets Today and 2070

Top 15 Countries Population Exposed Today & by 2070

2070 Top 20 Cities Highest Proportional Increase Exposed Populations

2070 Top 20 Cities Highest Proportional Increase Exposed Assets

Top 10 Countries by Population Currently Exposed to 1:100 Extreme Event Compared to Potential to Protect

Cities in Countries Classified as Having Limited Capacity to Protect based on GDP Class

Climate Change and Its Impact on Australia’s National Security: Vietnam Case Study Carlyle A. Thayer

Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability Research Showcase The University of New South Wales May 18 & 19, 2009

Congressionally-Mandated NIA

Vietnam: One of the Ten Most Impacted Countries

Scientific Data   Aggregate

temperature rise vulnerability   Fresh water availability   Agricultural productivity impact   Sea level rise in elevated coastal zones   Altered weather patterns

Impact of Sea Level Rise   Land

area   Population   Gross Domestic Product   Urban area   Agricultural area   Wetlands

Inundation Zone

Land Area

Population

Gross Domestic Product

Urban Extent

Wetlands

Agriculture Extent

Climate Change & Disruptive Impacts

1. 

2. 

How will Vietnam’s state evolve over the next two decades? How will Vietnam respond to environmental stress – fight or flight?

Climate Change & Disruptive Impacts 3. 

4. 

Will climate change result in a breakdown or failure of the Vietnamese state? Does Vietnam possess latent reserves of social resilience and ingenuity, and institutional capital to meet challenges of climate change?

Climate Change & Disruptive Impacts 5. 

6. 

Will Vietnam become a destination for migrants or the object of aggression? Will Vietnam be open to engagement with external states? To leadership by external states to address climate change?

Implications for Australia   Aid

for mitigation efforts   Response to failed states   Regional instability   Disrupted trade   Illegal arrivals

Climate Change and Its Impact on Australia’s National Security: Vietnam Case Study Carlyle A. Thayer

Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability Research Showcase The University of New South Wales May 18 & 19, 2009

Regional Threats and  Opportuni3es: Southeast Asia  Presenta3on made to   [client name deleted]  June 7, 2009