Seb Country Analysis 2008 Uae

United Arab Emirates SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

Jan 20, 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 8392. E-mail : [email protected] =

In 2008 the UAE will be heading for its fifth consecutive year of outstanding economic and financial performance, with the only caveat being the recent pick-up in consumer price inflation.

Country Risk Analysis _ìçó~åí=ÖêçïíÜ=ãçÇÉê~íÉëK=dêçïíÜ=áå=OMMT=áë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íç=Ü~îÉ=ëäçïÉÇ=íç=TKRB= ÑçääçïáåÖ=~=êÉÅçêÇ=áå=OMMS=ïÜÉå=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Éñé~åÇÉÇ=~í=ê~íÉë=àìëí=ëÜó=çÑ= ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=äÉîÉäëK=få=OMMUI=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íáçå=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=RKUB=ÖêçïíÜ= ÑçääçïÉÇ=Äó=ïÉ~âÉê=óÉ~êë=~ÜÉ~ÇK=qÜÉêÉ=~êÉ=íïç=ã~áå=êÉ~ëçåë=Ñçê=íÜáë=ÅçêêÉÅíáçåK= ^í=íÜÉ=çåÉ=Ü~åÇI=çáä=çìíéìí=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=Åçåëíê~áåÉÇ=Äó==lmb`=èìçí~ë=~åÇ= Å~é~Åáíó=äáãáíë=ÄÉÑçêÉ=åÉï= éêçÇìÅíáçå=ìåáíë=ÅçãÉ=çå= äáåÉ=åÉñí=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉ=íç==áåÅêÉ~ëÉ= çìíéìí=Å~é~Åáíó=íç=PKR=ãáääK= 15% Ä~êêÉäë=~=Ç~ó=EãÄéÇF=Ñêçã= íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=äáãáí=çÑ=OKT=ãÄéÇ= çÑ=ïÜáÅÜ=ëçãÉ=VRB=áë= 10% ìíáäáòÉÇ=çå=~=Ç~áäó=Ä~ëáëK=lå= íÜÉ=çíÜÉê=Ü~åÇI=íÜÉ= 5% ÅçåëíêìÅíáçå=Äççã=ëáåÅÉ= É~êäó=íÜáë=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç= ÅçãÉ=çÑ=~ÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=íÜ~í= 0% åÉÅÉëë~êáäó=ÜÉê~äÇáåÖ=~= Åçää~éëÉK=qÜÉ=ÖêçïáåÖ= äáâÉäáÜççÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ= ëìêÖÉ=Ü~ë=éÉ~âÉÇ=áå=íÜáë= ÅóÅäÉ=ÅçìäÇ=~äëç=ÄÉÖáå=íç=ÇÉåí= ÄìëáåÉëë=~åÇ=ÅçåëìãÉê=çéíáãáëã=ÖçáåÖ=Ñçêï~êÇK== = qÜÉ=ëäçïÇçïå=ã~ó=ÜÉäé=Åçåí~áå=éêáÅÉ=éêÉëëìêÉëK==oáëáåÖ=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=ÑççÇ=~åÇ= ëÉêîáÅÉë=Äìí=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=çÑ=ÜçìëáåÖ=ÄêçìÖÜí=íÜÉ=~ååìä=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=íç=VKPB=áå= OMMSK===qÜáë=áë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íç=Ü~îÉ=êáëÉå=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=NNB=áå=OMMT=ÄççëíÉÇ=Äó=ê~éáÇ= ãçåÉó=ÖêçïíÜ=ïÜáÅÜ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=PQB=áå=ä~ëí=gìåÉ=çå=~=óÉ~êJçåJóÉ~ê=EóçóF= Ä~ëáëI=~ë=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇáÇ=åçí=ëìÅÅÉÉÇ=áå=Ñìääó=ëíÉêáäáòáåÖ=íÜÉ=áåÑäçï=çÑ= äáèìáÇáíó=ÇìÉ=íç=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉ=ëìêéäìë=çå=íÜÉ=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ÅìêêÉåí=~åÇ=Å~éáí~ä=~ÅÅçìåíë= çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíëK===qÜ~í=Ü~ë=íêáÖÖÉêÉÇ=~=ÇáëÅìëëáçå=~ãçåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ= ~åÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=çÄëÉêîÉêë=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅó=~åÇ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=êÉÖáãÉ= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=äçåÖJëí~åÇáåÖ=éÉÖ=íç=íÜÉ=Ççää~ê=~ë=áíë=ã~áå=~åÅÜçêK==qÜÉ=çåÖçáåÖ= ïÉ~âÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ççää~êI=ïÜáÅÜ=ã~åó=ëìëéÉÅí=Ü~ë=óÉí=íç=êìå=áíë=Ñìää=ÅçìêëÉI=Ü~ë= ê~áëÉÇ=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=áãéçêíÉÇ=ÅçåëìãÉê=ÖççÇëI=íÜÉêÉÄó=~ÇÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=ìåÇÉêäóáåÖ= éêáÅÉ=éêÉëëìêÉK=cçê=íÜ~í=êÉ~ëçåI=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=hìï~áí=ÄêçâÉ=áíë=éêÉîáçìë=íáÖÜí=äáåâ=íç= íÜÉ=Ççää~ê=~åÇ=êÉJéÉÖÖÉÇ=íç=~=Ä~ëâÉí=çÑ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉëK=fí=áë=~êÖìÉÇ=íÜ~í=~=ëáãáä~ê=

20 0 20 2 0 20 3 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 09

GDP, real change

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Jan. 20, 2008

Percent pa.

ãçîÉ=ÅçìäÇ=ÜÉäé=ëí~ÄáäáòÉ=ÅçåëìãÉê=éêáÅÉë=áå=íÜÉ=r^b=ìåÇÉê=íÜÉ=áãéäáÅáí= ~ëëìãéíáçå=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ïçìäÇ=~ääçï=íÜÉ=åçãáå~ä=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉ=íç=~ééêÉÅá~íÉK=^äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜ~í=ã~ó=Üìêí=ëçãÉ=ÉñéçêíÉêëI=íÜÉ=fjc=êÉÅÉåíäó= àìÇÖÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=íçÇ~ó=áë=åçí=çîÉêî~äìÉÇK==_ó=áãéäáÅ~íáçå=çåÉ=ã~ó= ë~ó=íÜ~í=ëçãÉ=åçãáå~ä= Consumer prices ~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=ã~ó=Çç=äÉëë=Ü~êã= 20 íÜ~å=ÖççÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~éé~êÉåíäó= 15 êÉã~áåë=ÅçããáííÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ= 10 éêçàÉÅí=Ñçê=~=Åçããçå=d``= ÅìêêÉåÅóI=éä~ååÉÇ=Ñçê=OMNMI= 5 ~åÇ=~åó=ÄêÉ~â=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=Ççää~ê= 0 éÉÖ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜ~í=áë=ÅçåëáÇÉêÉÇ= ìåäáâÉäó=Äó=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêëK== -5 == -10 bñíÉêå~ä=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉë= 2000 2002 2004 2006 êÉã~áå=ëíêçåÖK===få=OMMTI=íÜÉ= r^b=éçëíÉÇ=~=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí= House Rent [ar 1 year] ëìêéäìë=çÑ=~å=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=APN= General CPI [ar 1 year] ÄáääK=ENTB=çÑ=damFI=AQ=ÄáääK=äÉëë= Source: Reuters EcoWin íÜ~å=áå=OMMSI=~ë=ëìêÖáåÖ= áãéçêíë=çìíé~ÅÉÇ=ÉñéçêíëK==qÜ~í=ï~ë=áå=ëéáíÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=NMB=ÜáÖÜÉê=éêáÅÉ=çÑ=r^bÛë= ã~áå=Éñéçêí=éêçÇìÅíI=ÅêìÇÉ=çáäI=ïÜáÅÜ=Åçìåíë=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=PMB=çÑ=íçí~ä= ãÉêÅÜ~åÇáëÉ=ÉñéçêíëK====líÜÉê=Éñéçêíë=êÉéêÉëÉåí=~=î~êáÉíó=çÑ=éêçÇìÅíë=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ= r^bÛë=ìåáèìÉ=éçëáíáçå=~ë=~=ÖäçÄ~ä=íê~ÇáåÖ=ÜìÄ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=É~ëí=~åÇ=ïÉëíI=åçêíÜ=~åÇ= ëçìíÜK==qÜ~í=áë=åçï=ÄÉáåÖ=ÅçãéäÉãÉåíÉÇ=Äó=~=ÖêçïáåÖ=ëÉêîáÅÉë=ëÉÅíçê=ÅÉåíÉêÉÇ= êçìåÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉêîáÅÉë=~åÇ=íçìêáëãK=^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=êÉã~áå= ìåÅçåÅÉêåÉÇ=~Äçìí=r^bÛë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éçëáíáçå=ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=áãéêÉëëáîÉ=ÅìêêÉåí= ~ÅÅçìåí=ëìêéäìë=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=áå=ÅçãáåÖ=óÉ~êë=íçï~êÇ=ëçãÉ=ANM=ÄáääK=ERB=çÑ= damFK==qÜÉ=Çêçé=ÅçìäÇ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉ=ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=Ñ~ää=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=éêçàÉÅíÉÇI= Äìí=ÉîÉå=~í=AQMLÄ~êêÉä=çÄëÉêîÉêë=êÉã~áå=ìåÅçåÅÉêåÉÇ=~Äçìí=r^bÛë=ÉñíÉêå~ä= éçëáíáçåK=qÜ~í=áë=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=ã~åó=óÉ~êëÛ=çÑ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíë=ëìêéäìëÉë=Ü~îÉ= Ñ~Åáäáí~íÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÄìáäÇáåÖ=çÑ=ÜìÖÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=~åÇ=çíÜÉê= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~ÖÉåÅáÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=^af^E^Äì=aÜ~Äá=fåîÉëíãÉåí=^ìíÜçêáíóFK==qÜÉ= ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Ü~ë=~Äçìí=AQM=ÄáääK=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉëK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=áë= äáâÉäó=íç=Ü~îÉ=~í=äÉ~ëí=~åçíÜÉê=AOMM=ÄáääK=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~ëëÉíë=çÑ=äçï= äáèìáÇáíóK==qçÖÉíÜÉê=íÜÉó=Çï~êÑ=r^bÛë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=~í=~êçìåÇ=AQM=ÄáääKI=ãçëí=çÑ=áí= íê~ÇÉ=êÉä~íÉÇK=qÜÉ=ÜÉ~äíÜó=ÉñíÉêå~ä=éçëáíáçå=áë=ëÜ~êÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK==fí=áë=íÜÉ= ëçäÉ=çïåÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=Ççãáå~íáåÖ=çáä=~åÇ=Ö~ë=Åçãé~åóI=^akl`I=ïÜáÅÜ=áë= Éëíáã~íÉÇ=íç=Ü~îÉ=éçëíÉÇ=~ååì~ä=ëìêéäìëÉë=~êçìåÇ=NMB=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMS=~åÇ=OMMTK=== = líÜÉê=êáëâ=Ñ~ÅíçêëW==qÜÉ=r^b=áë=~å=ìåìëì~ä=Åçìåíêó=áå=ã~åó=êÉëéÉÅíëK=qÜÉ= ÑçääçïáåÖ=äáëíë=íÜÉ=î~êáçìë=êáëâ=Ñ~Åíçêë=çÑíÉå=ÅáíÉÇ=áå=ÅçåíÉñí=çÑ=íÜáë=ÅçìåíêóW= NK t~ê=ÄÉíïÉÉå=fê~å=~åÇ=íÜÉ=rpI=Å~ìëáåÖ=fê~å=íç=ÅäçëÉ=íÜÉ=eçêãìò=píê~áí= EéêÉëÉåíäó=íÜÉ=çåäó=Éñéçêí=êçìíÉ=Ñçê=r^b=ÅêìÇÉ=éÉåÇáåÖ=~=éä~ååÉÇ= éáéÉäáåÉ=Ñçê=çáä=íç=Äóé~ëë=íÜÉ=ëíê~áíFK= OK ^=ÇÉÉé=~åÇ=äçåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=Çêçé=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=AOMLÄ~êêÉä= PK pçÅá~ä=ÇáëíìêÄ~åÅÉë=~ãçåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ïçêâÉêë=JJ=VMB=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçå= QK `çåÑäáÅíë=ÄÉíïÉÉå=~åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=T=áåÇáîáÇì~ä=Éãáê~íÉë=áå=íÜÉ=ÑÉÇÉê~íáçå= RK `çää~éëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Éèìáíó=~åÇLçê=íÜÉ=éêçéÉêíó=ã~êâÉíë= SK cáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=íêçìÄäÉ= jçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=~ééÉ~ê=íç=êÉÖ~êÇ=íÜÉëÉ=êáëâë=~ë=ã~å~ÖÉ~ÄäÉK==qÜÉ=ä~ëí=íïçI= ÜçïÉîÉêI=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ïÉ~â=ëí~íáëíáÅëI=ã~ó=ï~êê~åí=ÑìêíÜÉê=ãçåáíçêáåÖK=== = `çìäÇ=~=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçå=áå=íÜÉ=r^b=Åçää~éëÉ\==j~åó=çÄëÉêîÉêë=í~âÉ=ëçä~ÅÉ= Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=ä~êÖÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=éìí=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=áå=~=ëíêçåÖ=éçëáíáçå=íç= Ä~áä=çìí=Ñ~áäáåÖ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçåëK==eçïÉîÉêI=~Äáäáíó=áë=åçí=ÅçããÉåëìê~íÉ=ïáíÜ= ïáääáåÖåÉëëI=~åÇ=r^bÛë=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=Ü~ë=~å=ìåÑçêíìå~íÉ=Üáëíçêó=çÑ=êçÖìÉ= 2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Jan. 20, 2008

ÉäÉãÉåíëI=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=~ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=ã~åó=ÑçêÉáÖå=Ä~åâë=ïÜáÅÜ=çéÉê~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ= Åçìåíêó=~åÇ=í~âÉ=~Çî~åí~ÖÉ=çÑ=r^bÛë=çéÉååÉëë=~åÇ=ëçãÉíáãÉë=áå~ÇÉèì~íÉ= ëìéÉêîáëáçåK==tÜÉå=Ñê~ìÇ=Ü~ë=çÅÅìêêÉÇ=áí=Ü~ë=ã~áåäó=ÄÉÉå=ÇÉ~äí=ïáíÜ=áå=~=ÇáëÅêÉíÉ= ~åÇ=ÉîÉå=ëÉÅêÉíáîÉ=ã~ååÉêK=qÜ~í=ã~ó=åçí=êÉã~áå=íÜÉ=Å~ëÉ=ÑçêÉîÉêK==oÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êÛë= ÅêÉÇáí=Äççã=ã~ó=ê~áëÉ=ÑìíìêÉ=äÉîÉäë=çÑ=Ä~Ç=äç~åë=áå=ëçãÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçåë= çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=óÉ~êë=íç=ìåéêÉÅÉÇÉåíÉÇ=äÉîÉäë=ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ëäçï=ãçêÉ= íÜ~å=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜáë=ÅçãÄáåÉë=ïáíÜ=~=ëÜ~êé=çáä=éêáÅÉ=ÇêçéK=få=ëìÅÜ=~=ëáíì~íáçå= áí=áë=åçí=çÄîáçìë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=ïçìäÇ=ÑÉÉä=ÅçããáííÉÇ=çê=ÉîÉå=ÑáåÇ=áí= éêìÇÉåí=íç=ë~îÉ=~åó=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçåI=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=áÑ=íêçìÄäÉ=ïÉêÉ=íç=Üáí=~= ÑçêÉáÖå=Ñáêã=ïáíÜ=èìÉëíáçå~ÄäÉ=êÉéìí~íáçåK==eçïÉîÉêI=ëìÅÜ=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=~êÉ=Ä~ëÉÇ= çå=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇ=ÅçåëáÇÉê~íáçå=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉÇ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâë=íÜ~å=r^bÛë= Ü~îÉ=Ñ~áäÉÇ=íÜáë=íÉëí=~åÇ=ìåáåíÉåíáçå~ääó=ÉñéçëÉÇ=~äëç=ëçìåÇ=Ä~åâë=íç=~ÇîÉêëÉ= ã~êâÉí=êÉ~ÅíáçåëK==tÉ=ÑÉ~ê=íÜ~í=ëìÅÜ=êáëâë=ã~ó=åçí=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=~ÇÉèì~íÉäó=Ñ~ÅíçêÉÇ= áåíç=ã~êâÉí=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=r^b=~ëëÉíëK==få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=íÜÉ=ä~Åâ=çÑ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=~Äçìí= áãéçêí~åí=~ëéÉÅíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=r^b=ÉÅçåçãóI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíëI= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~ÅÅçìåíëI=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçåë=ÉíÅKI=ÅçìäÇ=äÉ~Ç=çÄëÉêîÉêë=íç=ãáëàìÇÖÉ= íÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=íç=ëÜçÅâëK=== = JJGJJ= = qÜÉ=r^b=áë=çÑíÉå=êÉÖ~êÇÉÇ=~ë=~å=ìåÇáëéìíÉÇ=ëìÅÅÉëë=ëíçêóK=fí=áë=êáÅÜ=áå=çáä=~åÇ=Ö~ë= êÉëÉêîÉë=Äìí=Ü~ë=~äëç=ã~å~ÖÉÇ=íç=ÄìáäÇ=çíÜÉê=áåÇìëíêáÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=~åÇ= ëÉêîáÅÉë=Ó=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=~äëç=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉêîáÅÉë=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~îÉ=éêçîÉÇ=~ÄäÉ=íç=ÅçãéÉíÉ= ïáíÜ=Éëí~ÄäáëÜÉÇ=ÖäçÄ~ä=éä~óÉêëK=oÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëÛ=ÜáÖÜ=çáä=êÉîÉåìÉë=Ü~ë=ÅêÉ~íÉÇ=çéíáãáëã=~åÇ= ~=ëìêÖÉ=áå=åÉï=~ÅíáîáíáÉë=ÄççëíáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=íç=áíë=äáãáíë=~åÇ=íÜÉêÉÄó=Å~ìëáåÖ=~ååì~ä= ÅçåëìãÉê=éêáÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=íç=êáëÉ=áåíç=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=äÉîÉäëK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=ãçëí= çÄëÉêîÉêë=êÉÖ~êÇ=çáä=êÉîÉåìÉë=íç=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ìëÉÇ=áå=~å=çîÉê~ää=éêìÇÉåí=ã~ååÉêI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ= Ñçê=íÜÉ=~ÅÅìãìä~íáçå=çÑ=ä~êÖÉ=êÉëÉêîÉëI=ãçëí=çÑ=áí=áå=íÜÉ=Ü~åÇë=çÑ=^af^=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= áåîÉëíãÉåí=îÉÜáÅäÉ=çÑ=^Äì=aÜ~ÄáI==íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=~åÇ=ãçëí=çáä=êáÅÜ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëÉîÉå=Éãáê~íÉëK==lå= íÜ~í=Ä~ëáë=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=Ü~îÉ=ìéÖê~ÇÉÇ=r^b=áåíç=ÇçìÄäÉ=^=äÉîÉäëK=tÜáäÉ=ïÉ=ÅçåÅìê= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=~ëëÉëëãÉåí=çÑ=íÜçëÉ=~ÅÜáÉîÉãÉåíëI=ïÉ=~äëç=åçíÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=Å~îÉ~íëK=få=é~êíáÅìä~ê=ïÉ= éçáåí=íç=íÜÉ=éçíÉåíá~ä=Ñçê=ÅçãáåÖ=éêçÄäÉãë=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=ïÜÉêÉ=ëçãÉ=áåëíáíìíáçåë= ~åÇ=Ä~åâë=ã~ó=åçí=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=éêçéÉêäó=Éî~äì~íÉÇ=Äó=~ää=ã~êâÉí=é~êíáÅáé~åíë=ÇìÉ=íç= ïÉ~âåÉëë=çÑ=éìÄäáÅäó=~î~áä~ÄäÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=r^bK== =

hÉó=ê~íáçë

Resilience

OMMT

13

mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåF

QIT

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF

QM

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF

9 7

Macro balance

NMB

qê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

NTB

oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜë _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam mÉÉêë nì~í~ê== hìï~áí p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~

3

Liquidity

-1

Absence of event risk

NR UB JNRB

5

1

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fåÑä~íáçå=

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11

UAE

Information

Average all emergers

qÜÉ=ÅäçëÉê=íç=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíêÉ=íÜÉ=ïçêëÉ=áë=íÜÉ=ëÅçêÉ> dê~éÜW=r^bDë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ=áë=ëíêçåÖÉê=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=~îÉê~ÖÉ= Ñçê=~ää=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçìåíêáÉëK=qÜÉ=èì~äáíó=~åÇ= ~î~áä~Äáäáíó=çÑ=Ç~í~=áë=ÜçïÉîÉê=ïÉ~âK=

3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Jan. 20, 2008

hÉó=Ç~í~W dam=ErpAF damI=êÉ~ä=EÅÜ~åÖÉF fåîÉëíãÉåíëLdam _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam dçîí=ÇÉÄíLdam `mf=áåÑä~íáçå=EBF jçåÉó=ÇÉã~åÇ=EBF píçÅâ=éêáÅÉë=EBÅÜ~åÖÉF fåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë bñÅÜK=o~íÉ=EAF qê~ÇÉLdam=EBF láä=éêáÅÉ=E_êÉåíF _áääáçåë=rp=A bñéçêí=çÑ=ÖççÇë fãéçêíë=çÑ=ÖççÇë líÜÉêW `ìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí ===B=çÑ=dam kÉí=caf iç~å=êÉé~óãÉåíë kÉí=çíÜÉê=Å~éáí~ä=Ñäçïë _~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíë qçí~ä=ÇÉÄí ===çLï=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí

o~íáåÖ=Üáëíçêó cáíÅÜ=EÉçóF pCm=EÉçóF qóéÉ=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíW kÉñí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë líÜÉêW i~íÉëí=m`=ÇÉ~ä oÉÅÉåí=fjc=éêçÖê~ãë

OMMO TQ NITB OSB JNMIUB JRIPB OIVB OMIPB

OMMQ NMR NNIVB OPB JMIQB JUIVB RIMB NMIRB OVB OIUB PIST QNB APU

OMMR NPO VITB OPB UINB JVIOB SIOB NTISB TRB QITB PIST QNB ARQ

OMMS NSP UIOB OSB NOINB JNQIVB VIPB ONIOB STB RIQB PIST PVB ASR

OMMT NUT VIQB OVB TIUB JNQISB NMIOB NPIMB JQOB RISB PIST PVB ATO

OMMU ONV TIRB PNB TISB JOMIMB NMIOB NQIPB

OMMV OOQ RIUB PPB PIUB JOMIMB PIMB NQIPB

NISB PIST PQB AOR

OMMP UU OISB OQB JQIRB JSITB PINB TIVB UB NIPB PIST PSB AOV

SIOB PIST PVB ATU

SIMB PIST PVB ATM

NQIU NMIO MIT PIQ RB PIN JOIV JPIU JMIO NSIT TIS

NUIV NOIR NIO TIS VB PIP JOIU JQIS PIR NSIT VIS

ORIS NTIP NIP NMIS NMB TIU JPIM JNOIT OIT OTIU NRIM

PPIP OMIP NIV OQIQ NUB TIN JPIQ JONIQ SIS QNIR OMIO

PVIT OPIQ OIO PRIO OOB UIP JPIR JPNIP UIT QVIM OQIT

QQIT OUIS OIM PNIR NTB VIT JQIO JPQIP OIU RUIO OUIS

ROIQ PPIO OIM PVIM NUB NNIM JMIV JQRIU PIO NPIP SIS

RNIT PSIN NIS OQIV NNB NNIO JNIM JPMIP QIT NQIQ TIO

kK^K kK^K kç=ÉäÉÅíÉÇ=ÄçÇáÉë kK^K kK^K

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Source: Reuters EcoWin

4

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Jan. 20, 2008

fãéçêí~åí>=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíëK= = = afp`i^fjbo= = = ^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ= EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíë=~åÇ=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~= båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäFI=EíÜÉ=_~åâF=áë=åçí=ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK= = léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=~ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåF=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâDë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå= çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã= ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëë=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ= êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå=~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK= oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK= qç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=~ééäáÅ~ÄäÉ=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê= ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=çê=éêáåíÉÇ=ÇçÅìãÉåíë=çê=íÜÉáê=ÅçåíÉåíëK= = vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~åó=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI= çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë=ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí= éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=ÜÉêÉáåK= = pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=áë=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäã=pïÉÇÉå=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ=áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉK== = = `çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉW== íÜÉ=_~åâDë=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=É=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê=êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçå=çíÜÉê=íÜ~å= áíë=êÉÅáéáÉåí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ä~åâK=^åó=éêáåíÉÇ=çê=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=ÇìéäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=çê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë= ãìëí=áåÅäìÇÉ=íÜáë=ÇáëÅä~áãÉêK=qÜÉ=_~åâ=ÇçÉë=åçí=í~âÉ=~åó=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ñçê=ã~íÉêá~ä=ÖáîÉå=íç=íÜáêÇ= é~êíáÉë=Äó=êÉÅáéáÉåíëK=

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