Seb Country Analysis 2006 Mexico

Mexico SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

August 27, 2006

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E-mail : [email protected] Recent opolitical turbulence should probably come as no surprise following seven decades of managed democracy, but is still disconcerting against a regional background of rising left-wing populism. So far the economy has remained unperturbed by these events and continued on a sound track.

Country Risk Analysis oÉÅÉåí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=Ü~îÉ=ëíáêêÉÇ=ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ëçÅá~ä=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåêÉëíK=qÜÉ=çìíÅçãÉ= çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=çÑ=É~êäó=gìåÉ=Ü~ë=ëç=Ñ~ê=åçí=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=~=ÅäÉ~ê=ïáååÉêK=jêK= `~äÇÉêçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=m^k=é~êíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=çìíÖçáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíI=jêK=cçñI=ïÜç=áë= Åçåëíáíìíáçå~ääó=Ä~êêÉÇ=Ñêçã=êÉÉäÉÅíáçåI=ïçå=ïáíÜ=PRKVB=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçíÉëI=çåäó=MISB=çîÉê= Üáë=ã~áå=ÅçåíÉåÇÉêI=jêK=^åÇêÉë=j~åì~ä=içéÉò=lÄê~Ççê=E^jilFK=qÜ~í=êÉëìäí=ï~ë= åçí=ÉåíáêÉäó=ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=~ë=ÄçíÜ=Å~åÇáÇ~íÉë=Ü~Ç=ÄÉÉå=áå=~=ÅäçëÉ=íáÉ=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ= Å~ãé~áÖå=~äíÜçìÖÜ=jêK=lÄê~Ççê=Ü~Ç=Ö~áåÉÇ=~=ëã~ää=äÉ~Ç=~ë=bäÉÅíáçå=a~ó= ~ééêç~ÅÜÉÇ=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ëÉîÉê~ä=éçääëK=jê=içéÉò=Ü~ë=ëÉáòÉÇ=íÜÉ=çééçêíìåáíó=íç= ÇÉÅä~êÉ=íÜÉ=çìíÅçãÉ=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=áêêÉÖìä~êáíáÉë=~åÇ=Ñê~ìÇI=ÜçéáåÖ=íç=ëíêáâÉ=~=åçíÉ=ïáíÜ= íÜÉ=ã~åó=ìåÇÉêéêáîáäÉÖÉÇ=jÉñáÅ~åë=ïÜç=~ÑíÉê=ëÉîÉå=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=íáÖÜíäó=ã~å~ÖÉÇ= ÇÉãçÅê~Åó=ìåÇÉê=éçéìäáëí=êáÖÜíJïáåÖ=é~êíó=mof=Em~êíáÇç=oÉîçäìÅáçå~êáç= fåëíáíìÅáçå~ä=F=ìåíáä=OMMM=êÉã~áå=ëìëéáÅáçìë=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÉäáíÉ=~åÇ=éçäáíáÅë=áå= ÖÉåÉê~äK==jêK=lÄê~ÇçêI=Å~åÇáÇ~íÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=^ääá~åÅÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=tÉäÑ~êÉ=çÑ=^ääI=çÑ=ïÜáÅÜ=Üáë= äÉÑíJïáåÖ=m~êíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=aÉãçÅê~íáÅ=oÉîçäìíáçå=EmoaF=áë=íÜÉ=ëÉåáçê=ãÉãÄÉêI=Ü~ë=ïçå=~= êÉéìí~íáçå=Ñçê=êìååáåÖ=jÉñáÅç=`áíó=èìáíÉ=ïÉää=~ë=ã~óçêI=~åÇ=áë=ÖÉåÉê~ääó=åçí=ëÉÉå=~ë= ~=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=çäÇ=Éëí~ÄäáëÜãÉåíK== = External balance and oil price eçïÉîÉêI=jêK=lÄê~ÇçêI=áë=åçï= éä~óáåÖ=~=Ç~åÖÉêçìë=Ö~ãÉK==cáêëí= $80 0% ÜÉ=ÇÉã~åÇÉÇ=~=Ñìää=êÉÅçìåíK=qÜ~í= $60 -1% ï~ë=êÉàÉÅíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=cÉÇÉê~ä= $40 bäÉÅíçê~ä=qêáÄìå~ä=EqêáÑÉFK==fí= -2% $20 Öê~åíÉÇI=íÜçìÖÜI=~=ëã~ääÉê=êÉÅçìåí= -3% $0 çÑ=VB=çÑ=~ää=éçääáåÖ=ëí~íáçåëK=qÜ~í= 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÉäÉÅíáçå=êÉëìäí=çåäó= (% of GDP) Oil price (Brent) ã~êÖáå~ääóI=~äíÜçìÖÜ=áå=jêK= lÄê~ÇçêDë=Ñ~îçêI=Äìí=ëíáää=íçç=äáííäÉ=íç=àìëíáÑó=~=íÜçêçìÖÜ=êÉÉñ~ãáå~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ïÜçäÉ= ÉäÉÅíáçå=êÉëìäíK=^ë=íÜ~í=ÇáÇ=åçí=ë~íáëÑó=jêK=lÄê~ÇçêI=ÜÉ=éêçãáëÉÇ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ê~ääáÉë= ~åÇ=ÇÉãçåëíê~íáçå=íç=ÇáëíìêÄ=íÜÉ=áå~ìÖìê~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=åÉï=éêÉëáÇÉåíI=ïÜçã=qêáÑÉ= ãìëí=éêçåçìåÅÉ=çå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=SK==aÉãçåëíê~íáçåë=áå=jÉñáÅç=`áíó=Ü~îÉ=~äêÉ~Çó= ÉåÇÉÇ=áå=Åä~ëÜÉë=ÄÉíïÉÉå=jêK=lÄê~ÇçêDë=ëìééçêíÉêë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=éçäáÅÉ=äÉ~îáåÖ=ëÉîÉê~ä= éÉçéäÉ=áåàìêÉÇI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=moa=ãÉãÄÉêë=çÑ=m~êäá~ãÉåíK=qÜÉ=ã~áå=ëíêÉÉí=~åÇ=çíÜÉê= íÜçêçìÖÜ=Ñ~êÉë=çÑ=jÉñáÅç=`áíó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=çÅÅìéáÉÇ=Äó=jêK=lÄê~ÇçêDë=ëìééçêíÉêë= ÅçãéäáÅ~íáåÖ=íê~ÑÑáÅ=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=áå=~=ÜÉ~îáäó=ÅçåÖÉëíÉÇ=ÅáíóK==tÜáäÉ=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë= êÉÅâçå=íÜ~í=~í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=jêK=lÄê~Ççê=ïáää=êÉ~äáòÉ=Ü~ë=äáãáíÉÇ=çéíáçåë=íÜ~å=~ÅÅÉéíáåÖ= important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis August 27, 2006

ÇÉÑÉ~íI=ÑÉï=éÉçéäÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉäó=ÇáëÅçìåí=íÜÉ=éçëëáÄáäáíó=çÑ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íìêãçáä=í~âáåÖ=áíë= çïå=Çóå~ãáÅë=áå=~å=ìåéêÉÇáÅí~ÄäÉ=ã~ååÉêK== = qÜÉëÉ=ìåÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=ìåÑçêíìå~íÉ=ÉîÉåíë=ëí~åÇ=áå=ëí~êâ=Åçåíê~ëí=íç=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK=qÜ~í= Ü~ë=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=íê~Åâë=çÑ=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êDë=Öê~Çì~ä=Äìí=ëíÉ~Çó=áãéêçîÉãÉåíëK=lîÉê= íÜÉ=ä~ëí=ÑÉï=óÉ~êë=ÖêçïíÜ=~êçìåÇ=QB=éK~K=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=Äêç~Ç=Ä~ëÉÇ=éêçéÉääÉÇ=Äó=ÄçíÜ= ÉñíÉêå~ä=~åÇ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇK=`äÉ~êäóI=ÜáÖÜ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=áåëíêìãÉåí~ä=íç= íÜáë=çìíÅçãÉI=ÄççëíáåÖ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=êÉîÉåìÉë=~åÇ=Ñ~Åáäáí~íÉÇ=~=ëçãÉïÜ~í= èìÉëíáçå~ÄäÉ=éêçÅóÅäáÅ~ä=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅóI=Äìí=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=âÉéí=ìåÇÉê= Åçåíêçä=~åÇ=ëìééçêíÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄí=ê~íáç=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=OQB=çÑ=damK= qáÖÜí=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅáÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Ç~ãéÉå=áåÑä~íáçå=íç=äÉëë=íÜ~å=QB=éK~K=ïÜáäÉ= ~ääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=éÉëç=íç=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íÉ=ëäçïäó=íç=ëí~îÉ=çÑÑ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=Ñêçã=`Üáå~=çå=íÜÉ=rp= ã~êâÉíK=oÉÅÉåí=ëí~íáëíáÅë=ÅçêêçÄçê~íÉ=íÜ~í=éáÅíìêÉ=çÑ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ëçìåÇåÉëë=~ë=gìäó= åìãÄÉêë=ÄêçìÖÜí=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=íç=Ç~íÉ=áåíç=~=ëã~ää=ëìêéäìë= Åçãé~êÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=APKO=ÄáääK=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇ=áå=OMMRK=qÜÉ=j~èìáä~Ççê~= ëÉÅíçê=áë=çåÅÉ=~Ö~áå=äÉ~ÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ï~ó=ïáíÜ=~ìíçãçíáîÉ=Éñéçêíë=êáëáåÖ=OSBK==fãéçêí= ÖêçïíÜ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=Äêç~Ç=Ä~ëÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=ëäáÖÜí=äÉ~Ç=Ñçê=Åçåëìãéíáçå=ÖççÇëK=Äìí=ïáíÜ= áåíÉêãÉÇá~íÉ=~åÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÖççÇë=íê~áäáåÖ=àìëí=ÄÉÜáåÇK==pìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=êÉåÉïÉÇ= áåíÉêÉëí=Ñêçã=ÑçêÉáÖå=áåîÉëíçêë=íÜÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ê~íáç=Ü~ë=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=íç=ONB=çÑ=damK= JJGJJ= oÉÅÉåí=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íìêãçáä=Ü~ë=ÅçãÉ=~ë=~=ëìêéêáëÉ=íç=ã~åó=çÄëÉêîÉêëK==`çãáåÖ=çå=íÜÉ= íê~áä=çÑ=ëáãáä~ê=ÉäÉÅíáçå=ÉîÉåíë=áå=çíÜÉê=i~íáå=^ãÉêáÅ~å=ÅçìåíêáÉëI=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=ïáíÜ= sÉåÉòìÉä~=~åÇ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=Äó=^êÖÉåíáå~=~åÇ=_çäáîá~=ïÜáäÉ=å~êêçïäó=ÉëÅ~éáåÖ=mÉêìI= jÉñáÅç=ÅçìäÇ=ê~áëÉ=ÑÉ~êë=çÑ=ÄÉáåÖ=íÜÉ=åÉñí=îáÅíáã=íç=ëáããÉêáåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ìåêÉëíK==fÑ=ëçI= íÜ~í=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÇáëÉåÅÜ~åí=áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=Üìêí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÖêçïíÜK=tÜáäÉ=ëìÅÜ=îáÉïë= ã~ó=ëíáää=ÄÉ=éêÉã~íìêÉ=íÜÉó=Å~ååçí=ÄÉ=ÇáëÅçìåíÉÇ=ÅçãéäÉíÉäóK==jÉñáÅç=áë=~=Åçìåíêó= çÑ=ïáÇÉ=áåÅçãÉ=Çáëé~êáíáÉë=~åÇ=ëçÅá~ä=ÇáîáëáçåëI=ïáíÜ=~å=áãã~íìêÉ=ÇÉãçÅê~Åó=~ÑíÉê= ëÉîÉå=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=çÑ=çåÉJé~êíó=êìäÉ=Äó=~=Åçêêìéí=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÉäáíÉK==c~áê=çê=åçêI=áí=ã~ó=åçí= ÄÉ=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=íç=éçêíê~ó=~=å~êêçï=ÉäÉÅíáçå=ÇÉÑÉ~í=Ñçê=?~=ã~å=çÑ=íÜÉ=éÉçéäÉ?=~ë=íÜÉ=éäçí= Äó=íÜÉ=çäÇ=Éëí~ÄäáëÜãÉåíK=pÜçìäÇ=Çáëêìéíáçåë=çÑ=ÇìÉ=éêçÅÉëëÉë=ëÅ~êÉ=~ï~ó=áåîÉëíçêëI= ~å=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=êÉ~ëçå~ÄäÉ=ëçìåÇ=ÉÅçåçãó=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ÇÉäáîÉêÉÇ=~=Ç~ã~ÖáåÖ=ÄäçïK=pç=Ñ~ê= ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=Ü~îÉ=í~âÉå=êÉÅÉåí=ÉîÉåíë=ëíçáÅ~ääóK=tÉ=ÅçåÅìê= Äìí=ÅÜççëÉ=íç=êÉëÉêîÉ=çìê=àìÇÖãÉåí=ìåíáä=Çìëí=ëÉííäÉë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=éçäáíáÅ~ä= íìêÄìäÉåÅÉK== =

Key ratios

2006

GDP/capita ($)

7901

GDP (change)

5%

Inflation

How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.

Reserves/imports (months) Budget balance/GDP

10 8 6

Macro balance

Liquidity

0

-1% 4

Absence of event risk Mexico

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW===___ jççÇóDëW=_~~N= pCmW==___

4 2

0%

Government debt/GDP

14 12

4%

Curr. Account balance/GDP

Resilience

Information Average EM

Russia

22% mÉÉêëW _ê~òáä oìëëá~ qÜ~áä~åÇ

Graph: Unlike similarly rated Russia the risk profile of Mexico is largely in line with the average emerging market country but for information where Mexico is better.

= 2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis August 27, 2006

= Key data: 2001 2002 2003 2004 GDP (mill.US$) 622 356 649 212 639 141 683 477 GDP/capita (US$) 6130 6306 6126 6466 GDP (change) -0,2% 0,8% 1,4% 4,2% Investments/GDP 20% 19% 19% 20% Budget balance/GDP -1% -2% -1% -1% Govt debt/GDP 25% 25% 26% 25% CPI inflation (%) 6,4% 5,0% 4,5% 4,7% Money demand (%) 14,8% 12,5% 11,4% 12,0% Stock prices (%change) -8% 7% 9% 49% Interest rates 12,2% 7,5% 6,5% 7,1% Exch. Rate ($) 9,3 9,7 10,8 11,3 Trade/GDP (%) 53% 51% 52% 56% Oil price (Brent) $24 $25 $29 $38 Millions US $ Export of goods 158 780 161 046 164 766 187 999 Imports of goods 168 396 168 679 170 546 196 810 Other: -8 062 -6 474 -3 055 2 129 Current account ($ mill) -17 678 -14 107 -8 835 -6 682 (% of GDP) -2,8% -2,2% -1,4% -1,0% FDI 22 745 17 384 12 932 14 242 Loan repayments -34 683 -32 656 -31 493 -40 557 Net other capital flows 37 349 34 322 35 332 39 142 Balance of payments 7 734 4 944 7 936 6 145 Reserves 41 777 46 720 54 656 60 801 Total debt 147 414 142 230 141 087 139 796 o/w short term debt 16 197 11 646 9 449 9 123 Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates. Rating history Fitch (eoy) Moody's (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Recent IMF programs

BB+ Ba2 BB+

BB+ Ba2 BB+

BBBBaa3 BBB-

BBBBaa2 BBB-

2005

2006

2007

2008

769 102 7186 3,0% 21% -1% 24% 4,0%

855 861 7901 4,7% 22% 0% 22% 3,7%

898 961 8203 3,9% 22% -1% 21% 3,7%

931 527 8405 3,7% 23% -1% 21% 3,0%

13,5%

13,9%

14,9%

15,3%

36% 9,3% 10,9 57% $54

7,3% 10,9 59% $65

7,0% 11,2 61% $60

6,9% 11,5 64% $58

214 233 221 820 2 940 -4 647 -0,6% 11 883 -33 565 32 638 6 309 67 110 139 732 9 058

251 026 256 024 -1 114 -6 112 -0,7% 15 745 -29 716 34 593 14 510 81 621 142 124 8 900

271 257 280 515 -3 815 -13 073 -1,5% 17 154 -29 944 34 518 8 655 90 275 144 989 8 756

293 040 301 516 -2 975 -11 451 -1,2% 18 283 -30 176 33 235 9 891 100 166 147 912 8 621

BBBBaa2 BBB-

BBB Baa1 BBB

2012 (presidential), 2009 (Congressional) 1989 1999 (Stand-by) US$/MX pesos

Risk Premium (spread)

12,0

1200 1100

11,5

1000

11,0

900

10,5

700 USD/MXN

Basis Points

800

600

10,0

500

9,5

400

9,0

300 200

8,5

100 0

97 98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

8,0

06

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Source: Reuters EcoWin

Foreign Reserves

Mexico Stock Exchange

($ bill.) 80

20000

70

17500

60

15000

50

USD (billions)

Index

(IPC general) 22500

12500

40

10000

30

7500

20

5000

10

2500

98

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

0

06

98

Source: Reuters EcoWin

3

99

00

01

02

03

04

05

06

Source: Reuters EcoWin

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis August 27, 2006

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