Seb Country Analysis 2008 Ethiopia

Ethiopia SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

4 September, 2008

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail: [email protected] =

Country Risk Analysis = eáÖÜ=ìåëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ=ÖêçïíÜK=qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=Éñé~åÇÉÇ=ê~éáÇäó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí= Ñçìê=óÉ~êë=ÇÉëéáíÉ=êÉÖáçå~ä=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ïáíÜ=bêáíêÉ~=~åÇ=pçã~äá~K= qÜÉ=~ÖêáÅìäíìêÉ=Ä~ëÉÇ=ÉÅçåçãó=EQT=B=çÑ=damF=Ü~ë=ÄÉåÉÑáíÉÇ=Ñêçã=Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ= ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=~í=äÉ~ëí=ìåíáä=É~êäó=OMMU=~åÇ=ä~êÖÉ=éìÄäáÅ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=áå=éçïÉêI= íÉäÉÅçããìåáÅ~íáçå=~åÇ=íê~åëéçêíI= Real GDP growth êÉëìäíáåÖ=áå=~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ= 15.0% NN=B=ëáåÅÉ=OMMPLMQK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=íÜÉ= ÉñíÉåëáîÉ=éìÄäáÅ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=éêçÖê~ãë= 10.0% Ü~îÉ=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=ëÜ~êé=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=áå= 5.0% ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=ÄçíÜ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=~åÇ= 0.0% Åçåëìãéíáçå=ÖççÇë=Å~ìëáåÖ=ÖêçïáåÖ= 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ= -5.0% ÜáÖÜ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉë=~åÇ=~=ëÜ~êé=êáëÉ=áå= íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=_ÉëáÇÉëI=~=éêçäçåÖÉÇ=ÇêçìÖÜí=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëìããÉê=~Åêçëë=ä~êÖÉ=é~êí= çÑ=íÜÉ=eçêå=çÑ=^ÑêáÅ~=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=ëç~êáåÖ=Åçëíë=çÑ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë=Ü~ë= êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=äççãáåÖ=ÑççÇ=Åêáëáë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜáë=ëéêáåÖK= = qÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=Ü~ë=ëâóêçÅâÉíÉÇK=qÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=àìãéÉÇ=íç=RR=B=áå=gìåÉ=çå=NOJ ãçåíÜ=Ä~ëáë=ìé=Ñêçã=~äêÉ~Çó=ÜáÖÜ=NV=B=áå=g~åì~êóK=qÜÉ=êáëÉ=áë=äÉÇ=Äó=ëÜ~êéäó=êáëáåÖ= ÑççÇ=éêáÅÉë=Äìí=~äëç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ÇÉã~åÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=~åÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçå= ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåëK=jçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅó=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=íáÖÜíÉåÉÇ=íÜêçìÖÜ=~=íêáéäáåÖ=çÑ=êÉëÉêîÉ= êÉèìáêÉãÉåíë=íç=~ÅÜáÉîÉ=~=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=ãçåÉó=ÖêçïíÜ=í~êÖÉíK=eçïÉîÉêI=ãçåÉó=ÖêçïíÜ= êÉã~áåÉÇ=Äìçó~åí=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMU=ïáíÜ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ê~éáÇ=Éñé~åëáçå=íç=éìÄäáÅ= ÉåíÉêéêáëÉë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK=qÜÉ=ÜáÖÜ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= êÉ~ä=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=~ééêÉÅá~íáçå=ÇÉëéáíÉ=~=ëíÉ~Çó=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ= ëáåÅÉ=OMMTK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=fjc=íÜáë=áåÇáÅ~íÉë=ëçãÉ=çîÉêî~äì~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ= ê~íÉK= = tÉ~âÉåáåÖ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåí=éçëáíáçåK=qÜÉ=ä~êÖÉ=çáä=~åÇ=ÑÉêíáäáòÉêë=áãéçêí=Äáää= ~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=êÉä~íÉÇ=áãéçêíë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=ëÜ~êé=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉ= ÇÉÑáÅáí=íç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=OM=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMTLMUK=tÜáäÉ=ëíêçåÖ=áåÑäçïë=çÑ=êÉãáíí~åÅÉë= ~åÇ=~áÇ=ÜÉäéÉÇ=äáãáí=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=íç=~êçìåÇ=NM=B=çÑ=damK= kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=ÜáÖÜÉê=ëÅÜÉÇìäÉÇ=êÉé~óãÉåí=çÑ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉÄí=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=~=ÇÉéäÉíáçå=çÑ= ~äêÉ~Çó=äçï=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=çåäó=NKR=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêíëK=^äíÜçìÖÜ=êÉä~íáçåë= ïáíÜ=ëçãÉ=Ççåçêë=Ü~îÉ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=OMMR=é~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÉäÉÅíáçåëI=bíÜáçéá~= áë=ëíáää=~å=áãéçêí~åí=~ääó=çÑ=íÜÉ=rp=~åÇ=bìêçéÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ÑáÖÜí=çÑ=ÖäçÄ~ä=íÉêêçêáëã= êÉÅÉáîáåÖ=~êçìåÇ=rpa=O=Äáääáçå=çÑ=ïÉëíÉêå=~áÇ=ÉîÉêó=óÉ~êK= ==

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

`çåíáåìÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåëK=qÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=eçêå=çÑ=^ÑêáÅ~=êÉã~áåë= íÉåëÉI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÄçêÇÉê=ÅçåÑäáÅí=ïáíÜ=bíÜáçéá~=~åÇ=bêáíêÉ~=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=ïáíÜ= pçã~äá~K=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ëçãÉ=çÄëÉêîÉêëI=íÜÉ=ïáíÜÇê~ï~ä=çÑ=rk=éÉ~ÅÉâÉÉéÉêë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ= bíÜáçéá~JbêáíêÉ~=ÄçêÇÉê=êÉÖáçå=íÜáë=ëìããÉê=Ü~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=ï~êK=bíÜáçéá~å= íêççéë=Ü~îÉ=êÉã~áåÉÇ=áå=pçã~äá~=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=áåî~ëáçå=áå=aÉÅÉãÄÉê=OMMS=áå=ëìééçêí=çÑ= íÜÉ=qê~åëáíáçå~ä=cÉÇÉê~ä=dçîÉêåãÉåí=EqcdFI=íÜÉå=ìåÇÉê=éêÉëëìêÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ= jçÖ~ÇáëÜìJÄ~ëÉÇ=fëä~ãáÅ=`çìêíë=råáçåK=qÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëáíì~íáçå=Ü~ë= áãéêçîÉÇ=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=îáçäÉåí=~ÑíÉêã~íÜ=çÑ=íÜÉ=OMMR=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=~åÇ=çééçëáíáçå=äÉ~ÇÉêë= Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=êÉäÉ~ëÉÇ=Ñêçã=à~áäK=eçïÉîÉêI=êÉä~íáçåë=êÉã~áå=ëíê~áåÉÇ=~åÇ=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=~ÅÅìëÉÇ=çÑ=Üìã~å=êáÖÜíë=~ÄìëÉë=áå=áíë=ÑáÖÜí=çÑ=~å=ÉíÜåáÅ=pçã~äá= êÉÄÉä=Öêçìé=áå=íÜÉ=lÖ~ÇÉå=êÉÖáçå=ëÉÉâáåÖ=ëÉäÑJÇÉíÉêãáå~íáçåK== = JJ˘JJ= = aÉëéáíÉ=ÄçíÜ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=~åÇ=êÉÖáçå~ä=éçäáíáÅ~ä=íÉåëáçåëI=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=Éñé~åÇÉÇ= ê~éáÇäó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=Ñçìê=óÉ~êë=ëìééçêíÉÇ=Äó=Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ=ïÉ~íÜÉê=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=ìåíáä= OMMT=~åÇ=ä~êÖÉ=éìÄäáÅ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=éêçÖê~ãëK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=Éñé~åëáçå=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå= íçç=ê~éáÇ=Å~ìëáåÖ=ëÜ~êéäó=ÖêçïáåÖ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉë=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇ=çáä= ~åÇ=ÑççÇ=éêáÅÉ=ëÜçÅâ=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ=áå=îÉêó=ÜáÖÜ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉK=få=íÜÉ=ÉîÉåíI=~äêÉ~Çó= äçï=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=Ü~îÉ=êÉÇìÅÉÇ=ÑìêíÜÉê=íç=çåäó=NKR=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêí=ÅçîÉêK= qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅó=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=íÜÉ=çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖ=Ü~ë=ëç=Ñ~ê=ÄÉÉå=ÄäÉ~â=~åÇ=áë= êÉëíêáÅíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=ÑççÇ=ÅêáëáëK=^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=íÜÉ=êáëâ=Ñçê=~=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåí= Åêáëáë=Ü~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ã~êâÉÇäóK==bíÜáçéá~Ûë=ÅäçëÉ=êÉä~íáçåë=ïáíÜ=ãçëí=tÉëíÉêå=Ççåçêë= ëÜçìäÇ=éêçîáÇÉ=ëçãÉ=~áÇ=íç=ÄêáÇÖÉ=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅÉ=Ö~éK=eçïÉîÉêI=êÉéçêíë=çå=Üìã~å= êáÖÜíë=~ÄìëÉë=áå=íÜÉ=lÖ~ÇÉåJêÉÖáçå=~åÇ=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÄçêÇÉê=ÅçåÑäáÅí=ïáíÜ=bêáíêÉ~= ÉëÅ~ä~íáåÖ=íç=~=ï~ê=ÅçìäÇ=êáëâ=ÜìêíáåÖ=Ççåçê=êÉä~íáçåë=~åÇ=êÉëíêáÅí=íÜÉ=áåÑäçï=çÑ=~áÇK== = = = = hÉó=ê~íáçë

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2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

Key data: GDP (bill. US$) GDP/capita (US$) GDP (change) Investments/GDP Budget balance/GDP Govt debt/GDP CPI inflation (%) Money demand (%) Stock prices (%change) Interest rates (T-bill) Exch. Rate ($) Trade/GDP (%) Oil price (Brent) Billions US $ Export of goods Imports of goods Other: Current account (% of GDP) FDI Loan repayments Net other capital flows Balance of payments Reserves Total debt o/w short term debt Rating history Fitch (eoy) Moody's (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Recent IMF programs

2003/04 8.0 107 -3.5% 22% -7% 124% 17.7%

2004/05 9.5 123 13.1% 23% -6% 114% 3.3%

2005/06 11.4 144 11.6% 24% -4% 68% 12.3%

2006/07 19.4 239 11.4% 24% -5% 38% 15.8%

2007/08 24.6 296 8.4% 27% -5% 34% 22.4%

2008/09 29.2 343 6.0% 34% -6% 35% 22.2%

2009/10 31.7 363 6.5% 38% -6% 37% 12.9%

2010/11 33.7 376 7.0% 40% -6% 39% 9.3%

1.3 8.60 30% $29

0.6 8.64 47% $38

0.3 11.60 49% $54

0.1 8.81 33% $65

0.0 9.32 31% $73

10.09 32% $117

11.11 32% $113

12.22 34% $101

0.5 1.9 1.3 -0.1 -1.7% 0.2 -1.2 1.2 0.1 0.9 7.3 0.5

0.8 3.6 1.3 -1.5 -16.1% 0.2 -1.5 3.4 0.5 1.5 6.6 0.9

1.0 4.6 1.3 -2.3 -19.8% 0.4 -1.7 3.2 -0.3 1.2 6.3 1.1

1.2 5.1 1.9 -2.1 -10.7% 0.5 -1.4 3.2 0.2 1.3 2.3 1.3

1.5 6.2 2.2 -2.5 -10.1% 0.6 -1.6 3.3 -0.1 1.2 1.8 1.5

1.7 7.7 2.7 -3.3 -11.2% 0.6 -2.0 4.9 0.4 1.6 2.3 1.9

1.8 8.4 3.1 -3.6 -11.2% 0.8 -2.2 5.4 0.4 2.0 3.4 2.1

2.0 9.3 3 .3 -4.0 -11.9% 1.0 -2.6 5.8 0 .2 2 .2 5.1 2.3

N.R. N.R. N.R. Federal republic 2010 Debt cancellation, 2004 PRGF,2001

Exchange rate 9.75 9.50

USD/ETB

9.25 9.00 8.75 8.50 8.25 02

03

04

05

06

07

08

Source: Reuters EcoWin

3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

= = = = = fãéçêí~åí>=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíëK= = = afp`i^fjbo= = = ^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ= EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíë=~åÇ=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~= båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäFI=EíÜÉ=_~åâF=áë=åçí=ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK= = léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=~ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåF=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâDë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå= çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã= ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëë=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ= êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå=~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK= oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK= qç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=~ééäáÅ~ÄäÉ=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê= ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=çê=éêáåíÉÇ=ÇçÅìãÉåíë=çê=íÜÉáê=ÅçåíÉåíëK= = vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~åó=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI= çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë=ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí= éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=ÜÉêÉáåK= = pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=áë=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäã=pïÉÇÉå=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ=áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉK== = = `çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉW== íÜÉ=_~åâDë=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=É=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê=êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçå=çíÜÉê=íÜ~å= áíë=êÉÅáéáÉåí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ä~åâK=^åó=éêáåíÉÇ=çê=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=ÇìéäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=çê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë= ãìëí=áåÅäìÇÉ=íÜáë=ÇáëÅä~áãÉêK=qÜÉ=_~åâ=ÇçÉë=åçí=í~âÉ=~åó=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ñçê=ã~íÉêá~ä=ÖáîÉå=íç=íÜáêÇ= é~êíáÉë=Äó=êÉÅáéáÉåíëK=

4