Seb Country Analysis 2008 Iceland

Iceland SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

28 Sept. 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 8392. E-mail : [email protected] qÜÉ=ÅççäáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çîÉêÜÉ~íÉÇ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ÄÉÖìå=ïáíÜ=ÖêçïíÜ=Ñ~ääáåÖ=áåíç=êÉÅÉëëáçå=ãççÇ=íÜ~í= ïáää= äáâÉäó= ä~ëí= íÜêçìÖÜ= OMMU= ~åÇ= áåíç= OMMVK= qÜ~í= ÅçãÄáåÉÇ= ïáíÜ= íÜÉ= çåJÖçáåÖ= ÅççäáåÖ= çÑ= íÜÉ= ïçêäÇ= ÉÅçåçãó=~åÇ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=íìêÄìäÉåÅÉ=ïáää=éìí=íÜÉ=çîÉêÉñéçëÉÇ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=íç=~=îÉêó= ëÉêáçìë=íÉëí=áå=íÜÉ=åÉ~ê=ÑìíìêÉK==EmäëK=cáåÇ=~å=ìéÇ~íÉ=çå=“oÉÅÉåí=ÉîÉåíëÒ=çå=é~ÖÉ=VKF=

Country Risk Analysis

Percent

R=óÉ~êë=çîÉê=çîÉêJéÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=íìêåë=áåíç=êÉÅÉëëáçåK=cçê=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êë=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ= ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉÇ=Éñíê~çêÇáå~êó=ÜáÖÜ=ÖêçïíÜ=ê~íÉë=~í=~å=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çÑ=RB=~= óÉ~êI=ëéìêêÉÇ=Äó=ä~êÖÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=éêçàÉÅíë=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=Åçãé~ê~íáîÉ= ~Çî~åí~ÖÉë=áå=ÉåÉêÖó=áåíÉåëáîÉ=éêçÇìÅíáçåI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~äìãáåáìãK==qÜ~í=ï~ë= ÑçääçïÉÇ=Äó=ÇÉêÉÖìä~íáçå=çÑ=ÅêÉÇáí=ã~êâÉíë=ïÜáÅÜ=íêáÖÖÉêÉÇ=~=ëÜ~êé=êáëÉ=áå=ÅçåëìãÉê= ÉñéÉåÇáíìêÉ=~åÇ=áå=íÜÉ=ÜçìëáåÖ=ã~êâÉíK==qÜÉåI=ëáåÅÉ=OMMQI=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=ÅçããÉêÅá~ä= Ä~åâë=ä~ìåÅÜÉÇ=~å=ìåìëì~ä=ê~éáÇ=Éñé~åëáçå=áåíç=ÑçêÉáÖå=ã~êâÉíë=ÑìåÇÉÇ=Äó=ÖäçÄ~ä= áåîÉëíçê=ÉìéÜçêá~=~åÇ=É~ëó=ãçåÉó=ÉîÉêóïÜÉêÉK==qÜ~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=íêáéäÉÇ=íÜÉáê=íçí~ä= Ä~ä~åÅÉë=~åÇ=ÉñéçëÉÇ=íÜÉã=íç=ã~êâÉíë=ïáíÜ=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜÉó=Ü~Ç=äáííäÉ=éêáçê=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉK== íÜ qçÇ~óI=~ë=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅÉ=áë=êÉÉäáåÖ=ìåÇÉê=íÜÉ=ÅêÉÇáí=Åêáëáë=åçï=áå=áíë=NR =ãçåíÜ=~åÇ= ëíáää=Ü~êÇäó=ãìÅÜ=äáÖÜí=áå=íÜÉ=íìååÉäI=ÉóÉë=Ü~îÉ=íìêåÉÇ=íç=fÅÉä~åÇ=~ë=íÜÉ=ìÖäó=ÇìÅâäáåÖ= áå=íÜÉ=éçåÇK==qÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=Ü~ë=~ää=Äìí=Åçää~éëÉÇI=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ëçãÉ=PMB=áå=íÜÉ=ã~ííÉê= çÑ=~=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜë=ä~ëí=ëéêáåÖI=~åÇ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ=åçï=~å=Éñíê~çêÇáå~êó=Ü~êÇ= íáãÉ=~ééêç~ÅÜáåÖ=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=áåíÉêJÄ~åâ=ã~êâÉíI=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉ= ÜáâÉë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâK==^ë=~=êÉëìäí=íÜÉó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=ëä~ã=íÜÉ=Äê~âÉë=çå= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÅêÉÇáíëI=ïáíÜ= Consumer Prices íÜÉ=áåÉîáí~ÄäÉ= 20 ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ÅççäáåÖ= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇK== eçìëÉ=éêáÅÉë=Ü~îÉ= Housing ÄÉÖìå=íç=ëäáÇÉ=Ó=ëç=Ñ~ê= 15 íÜáë=óÉ~ê=çåäó=OBI= ïÜáÅÜI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=áë= ~êçìåÇ=TB=áå=êÉ~ä=íÉêãë= 10 ~ë=áåÑä~íáçå=Ü~ë=ëÜçí=ìé= íç=~êçìåÇNRBK====== = 5 fë=íÜáë=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=íç=íÜÉ= Total fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÖêçïíÜ=ëíçêó\== ^äíÜçìÖÜ=dam=ï~ë=ìé= Äó=QB=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ëáñ= 0 ãçåíÜë=çÑ=OMMU= 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Åçãé~êÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ= All items (1997:3=100) [ar 12 months] Housing [ar 12 months] Source: Reuters EcoWin éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=OMMT=JJ=óÉ~êJ çåJóÉ~ê=EóçóFI=åçÄçÇó=~êÖìÉë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=åçí=äáâÉäó=íç=Ñ~ÅÉ=~= ëÉêáçìë=Ççïåíìêå=ëíêÉíÅÜáåÖ=áåíç=OMMVI=~ë=ÅçåëìãÉêë=ÄÉÖáå=íç=êÉé~áê=íÜÉáê=Ä~ä~åÅÉë= ~åÇ=ëÉÉ=íÜÉáê=ïÉ~äíÜ=Ç~ã~ÖÉÇ=~ë=ÜçìëÉ=éêáÅÉë=Ñ~ää=Äó=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=PMB=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí= ÑÉï=óÉ~êë=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ëçãÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=éêçàÉÅíáçåëK=^ë=~=êÉëìäí=éêáî~íÉ= Åçåëìãéíáçå=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=íìêå=ëçìíÜI=éÉêÜ~éë=ÇêçééáåÖ=Äó=~å=~ÅÅìãìä~íÉÇ=NRB=áå= important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

êÉ~ä=íÉêãë=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉK==fåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉã~åÇI=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=êÉ~ä=Éëí~íÉ= ÅçåëíêìÅíáçåI=ÅçìäÇ=~äãçëí=ÅçãÉ=íç=~=ëí~åÇëíáääI=~äíÜçìÖÜ=åÉï=ãÉÖ~=éêçàÉÅíë=Ñçê= ~äìãáåáìã=éêçÇìÅíáçå=äáâÉäó=íç=ëí~êí=ìé=áå=íÜÉ=åÉ~ê=íÉêã=ëÜçìäÇ=ëçÑíÉå=íÜÉ=ÇçïåÑ~ääK== qÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ëìêéäìë=çÑ=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëI=íÜÉ=àÉïÉä=áå=íÜÉ=Åêçïå=çÑ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=éçäáÅó=~åÇ=~= ã~àçê=ê~íáåÖ=ëíêÉåÖíÜ=ëç=Ñ~êI=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=Éî~éçê~íÉ=áå=OMMU=~åÇ=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉ=ÑìêíÜÉê=íç=~= ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=éÉêÜ~éë=UBLdam=áå=íÜÉ=åÉ~ê=íÉêã=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ëçãÉ=Éëíáã~íÉëK==qÜ~í= ïçìäÇ=ëÉí=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=åÉí=ÇÉÄí=~í=~=ê~éáÇäó=êáëáåÖ=íê~àÉÅíçêóI=~äÄÉáí=Ñêçã=~=äçï=äÉîÉä= ~í=äÉëë=íÜ~å=PMBLdamK= = eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉêÉ=~êÉ=~äëç=ÖäáããÉêë=çÑ=ÜçéÉK==qÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=íê~ÇÉ=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áë=ÅçêêÉÅíáåÖ= áíëÉäÑ=ê~éáÇäó=~åÇ=Ü~ë=~äêÉ~Çó=ÄÉÖìå=íç=ëÜçï=ëã~ää=ãçåíÜäó=ëìêéäìëÉëK==qÜ~í=áë= ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=Éñéçêíë=Ñêçã=êáëáåÖ=~äìãáåáìã=çìíéìíI=ëÉí=íç=êáëÉ=SRB=íÜáë=óÉ~êI=~åÇ= ÇÉëéáíÉ=ïÉ~âÉê= ëÜáéãÉåíë=çÑ= ã~êáåÉ=éêçÇìÅíë= JJ=ëíáää=fÅÉä~åÇÛë= ãçëí=áãéçêí~åí= Éñéçêí=áíÉãI=ÇìÉ= íç=äçïÉê=Å~íÅÜ= èìçí~ëK==fãéçêí= 20 ÖêçïíÜI=áå= Åçåíê~ëíI=áë= 10 ëÜ~êéäó=Ççïå=~ë= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ë~äÉë= 0 çÑ=Å~êë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê= ÄáÖJíáÅâÉí=áíÉãë= -10 Ü~îÉ=éäìããÉíK== qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí= ~ÅÅçìåí=áë=Ççïå= -20 Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ëÅ~êó= êÉëìäí=çÑ= -30 OTBLdam= ÇÉÑáÅáí=éçëíÉÇ=áå= OMMSI=Äìí=ïáää=áå= OMMU=ëíáää=ëÉÉ=~= ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=ëçãÉ= GDP % chng. CA balance/GDP NRB=çÑ=damI= ~äãçëí= ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=Ñêçã=OMMTK==qÜÉ=ïÉ~â=áãéêçîÉãÉåí=áå=OMMU=áë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=îçä~íáäÉ=åÉí= áåÅçãÉ=é~óãÉåíëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=êÉé~íêá~íáçå=çÑ=éêçÑáíë=Ñêçã=éêÉîáçìë=ä~êÖÉ=caf=áåÑäçïëK== eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=Ñ~ää=ÑìêíÜÉê=íç=ëáåÖäÉ=ÇáÖáí= åìãÄÉêë=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=óÉ~êë=~ë=~äìãáåáìã=éêçÇìÅíáçå=ëç~êë=~åÇ=áãéçêíë= ÅçåíáåìÉ=íç=ëäçï=ÜÉäéÉÇ=Äó=ÇÉÅäáåáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉëK==qÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=ã~ó=~äëç=ÜÉäé=ÅìêÄ= áåÑä~íáçåK==få=^ìÖìëíI=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=NO=ãçåíÜ=éÉêáçÇI=éêáÅÉë=ëÜçïÉÇ= ëçãÉ=ëáÖåë=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íáçåI=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=ëíÉÉé=ÅìêêÉåÅó=ÇÉéêÉÅá~íáçåI=ëç~êáåÖ=çáä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ= ëíáää=ÖççÇ=ï~ÖÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=çÑ=VB=óçóI=Ü~Ç=ëÉÉå=áí=êáëÉ=áåíç=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=íÉêêáíçêó=áå=íÜÉ= Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êK==fí=ëÜçìäÇ=~äëç=ÄÉ=åçíÉÇI=íÜ~í=ÇÉëéáíÉ=ÖêçïáåÖ=ÑáëÅ~ä=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉë= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄí=ê~íáçë=ëí~êíáåÖ=Ñêçã=~=äçï=äÉîÉä=~êÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=íç=êÉ~ÅÜ=íÉêêáÑóáåÖ= äÉîÉäë=áå=íÜÉ=åÉ~ê=íÉêãK== = ^ää=íÜ~í=ë~áÇI=~í=äÉ~ëí=íïç=óÉ~êë=çÑ=ÅäÉ~ê=ìåÇÉêéÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=áë=~ää=Äìí=~=ÇçåÉ=ÇÉ~äK== qÜ~í=áåÉîáí~Ääó=ê~áëÉë=íÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=ïÜÉíÜÉê=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëÛ=éçäáÅáÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ïÉääJ íìåÉÇI=~åÇ=áÑ=åçí=~=ãçêÉ=ëãççíÜ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=éêÉÑÉê~ÄäÉ=~åÇ=ÅçìäÇ= Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=~ÅÅçãéäáëÜÉÇ=Äó=íáÖÜíÉê=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=éçäáÅáÉë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=í~êÖÉíáåÖ=~å=ÉîÉå= ÜáÖÜÉê=~ååì~ä=ÑáëÅ~ä=ëìêéäìëK==tÜáäÉ=ïÉ=Çç=åçí=~êÖìÉ=~Ö~áåëí=~åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=áãéêÉëëáîÉ= ~ÅÜáÉîÉãÉåíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÉÅçåçãó=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉ=çå=~=Å~ëÉJ Äó=Ä~ëÉ=Ä~ëáëI=íçÖÉíÜÉê=íÜÉó=Ü~îÉ=ÉñéçëÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=íç=~ÇîÉêëÉ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåíë= ÄÉóçåÇ=íÜÉ=Åçåíêçä=çÑ=áíë=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=~åÇ=ÄìëáåÉëëÉëK==qÜ~í=áå=é~êíáÅìä~ê=êÉä~íÉë=íç=íÜÉ= Éñé~åëáçå=çÑ=áíë=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=áåíç=ÑçêÉáÖå=ã~êâÉíëI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉë=çÑ=íÜáë= ÉñéçëìêÉ=~êÉ=åçï=ÄÉáåÖ=ä~áÇ=Öä~êáåÖäó=çéÉåK= = 2

06

20

04

20

02

20

00

20

98

19

19

96

percent

GDP growth and Current Account deficit/GDP

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

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Financial Stability , Reykjavik 2008 3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

Basis point

áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉí~áä=ëÉÅíçêëI=ïÜáÅÜ=~êÉ=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=Üáí=Ñáêëí=áå=~=ÇçïåíìêåK==få= é~êíáÅìä~ê=íÜ~í=ëÉÉãë=íç=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=íÜÉ=Å~ëÉ=ïáå=íÜÉ=rhI=~=Åçìåíêó=ïÜáÅÜ=áë=åçï= Ñ~ÅáåÖ=~=ê~íÜÉê=Ü~êÇ=ä~åÇáåÖ=Ñçê=áíë=ÅçåëìãÉêëK==få=íÜÉ=kçêÇáÅ=ÅçìåíêáÉëI=Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI= áí=~ééÉ~êë=íÜ~í=íÜÉó=~êÉ=ã~áåäó=ÉñéçëÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇ=ëÉÅíçê=íÜêçìÖÜ=ãçêíÖ~ÖÉëI= ~åÇ=íÜáë=ã~ó=êÉéêÉëÉåí=~=ë~ÑÉê=ÄÉí=àìÇÖÉÇ=Äó=ÜáëíçêáÅ~ä=ÉñéÉêáÉåÅÉ=çÑ=íÜçëÉ=ÅçìåíêáÉëK= = qÜÉ=íÜáêÇ=êáëâ=áë=áãéçêí~åí=~ë=ÉñéçëìêÉ=íç=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÜçäÇáåÖ=Åçãé~åáÉë=ã~âÉë=ìé=~= èì~êíÉê=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÉñéçëìêÉ=ïÜáÅÜ=ÅçåëíáíìíÉë=~=äáííäÉ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å= QMB=çÑ=íÜÉáê=íçí~ä=äç~å=éçêíÑçäáçK==jçêÉçîÉêI=íÜÉ=`_fLcjb=~Çãáíë=íÜ~í=íÜáë=êÉéêÉëÉåíë= ~=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉáê=äç~å=Äççâ=íÜ~í=áë=ãçêÉ=çÄëÅìêÉ=íÜ~å=åçêã~ä=Äìí=ïÜÉêÉ=íÜÉêÉ=áë=~=ëíêçåÖ= ëìëéáÅáçå=íÜ~í=ëíçÅâ=ã~êâÉí=ÉñéçëìêÉ=Ççãáå~íÉëK== = få=~=ïçêëí=Å~ëÉ=ëÅÉå~êáç=`_fLcjb=Ü~ë=íÉëíÉÇ=íÜÉ=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=íç=~= ÅçãÄáå~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=~åÇ=íÜáêÇ=êáëâ=~åÇ=ÑçìåÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Ä~åâë=áå=~ÖÖêÉÖ~íÉ= ïçìäÇ=ëíáää=ÄÉ=ëçäîÉåí=Äìí=ïçìäÇ=ÄÉ=áå=ìêÖÉåí=åÉÉÇ=çÑ=êÉÅ~éáí~äáò~íáçå=Eíç=íÜÉ=íìåÉ=çÑ= ëçãÉ=SB=çÑ=íÜÉáê=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ=Ä~ä~åÅÉëFK==fÑ=íÜ~í=ëÜçìäÇ=ÅçãÉ=Äó=~=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Å~éáí~ä= áåàÉÅíáçå=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâI=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå~êó=áãé~Åí=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ä~ëíáåÖ=~åÇ= Ç~ã~ÖáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK==== = kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=áí=áë=íÜÉ= Currency composition of deposits `_fLcjbÛë=ÅçåÅäìëáçå= 2007 íÜ~í=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ= ëóëíÉã=áë=êÉëáäáÉåí=íç=~= ïçêëí=Å~ëÉ=ëÅÉå~êáç=~í=äÉ~ëí= áå=íÉêãë=çÑ=ëçäîÉåÅóK= Other ISK eçïÉîÉêI=íÜáë=îÉêó= ÅçããÉåÇ~ÄäÉ=êÉéçêí=~äëç= åçíÉë=íÜÉ=ÑçääçïáåÖW= “`êáíáÅë=Ü~îÉ=~ëëÉêíÉÇ=íÜ~í= íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=_~åâë=Ü~îÉ= EUR Öêçïå=íçç=ä~êÖÉK==qÜáë= GBP ãáÖÜí=ÄÉ=íêìÉ=áÑ=~=ã~àçê= USD Ñáå~åÅá~ä=Åêáëáë=ï~ë= áããáåÉåí=~åÇ=íÜÉ= fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ïÉêÉ=ÑçêÅÉÇ=íç=êÉëçäîÉ=~=ÅêáíáÅ~ä= Source: Sedlabanki 2008 ëáíì~íáçå=~ÑÑÉÅíáåÖ=Ä~åâáåÖ= çéÉê~íáçåë=ÄçíÜ=áå=fÅÉä~åÇ=~åÇ=~Äêç~ÇKÒ==tÉ=Ñìääó=~ÖêÉÉ=Äìí=ÑÉ~ê=ëìÅÜ=~=ëáíì~íáçå=Ü~ë= ÄÉÅçãÉ=ÅçåëáÇÉê~Ääó=ÅäçëÉê=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêí=ï~ë=éìÄäáëÜÉÇ=ä~ëí=j~óK== = iáèìáÇáíóW==qÜ~í=íìêåë=íÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=íç=íÜÉ=äáèìáÇáíó=éçëáíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâëK== ^ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ãáåá=Åêáëáë=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=áå=OMMSI=Ä~åâë=ïÉêÉ=èìáÅâ=áå= ë~ÑÉÖì~êÇáåÖ=íÜÉáê=äáèìáÇáíó=éçëáíáçå=~åÇ=ë~îÉÇ=ãçåÉó=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ä~êÖÉ=áåëí~äãÉåíë= çå=íÜÉáê=ÑçêÉáÖå=ïÜçäÉë~äÉ=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Eã~áåäó=ÄçåÇ=áëëìÉëF=ÇìÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMU=~åÇ=É~êäó= OMMVK==qÜÉ=åÉ~ê=íÉêã=îá~Äáäáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâë=îáëJ¶Jîáë=íÜÉáê=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅêÉÇáíçêë=ÇçÉë= íÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=åçí=ëÉÉã=~í=êáëâ=Ñçê= CDS spreads íÜÉ=ãçãÉåíI=éêçîáÇÉÇ=íÜ~í= 1500 çíÜÉê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉáê=ÑìåÇáåÖI= ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉéçëáíë=~åÇ=ÅêÉÇáí= 1250 äáåÉë=Ñêçã=ÑçêÉáÖå=Ä~åâë=Çç= åçí=Çêó=ìéK== 1000 = e~Ç=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= 750 Kaupthing Åêáëáë=ÄÉÉå=íÜÉ=êÉÖìä~ê=çåÉI= ~ë=Ñáêëí=~åíáÅáé~íÉÇI=íÜÉ= 500 Landsbanki fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=ãáÖÜí=Ü~îÉ= 250 íìêåÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÅçêåÉê=Äó=åçïK== Glitnir eçïÉîÉêI=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=äáèìáÇáíó= 0 ëáíì~íáçå=ëíáää=ÜáÖÜäó= jan apr jul okt jan apr jul ìåÅÉêí~áå=áå=íÜÉ= 2007 2008 áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=áåíÉêÄ~åâ= 4

Glitnir Banki Senior, Bid Landsbanki Senior, Ask Kaupthing Banki Senior, Bid

Source: Reuters EcoWin

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

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20

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ã~êâÉí=~ë=ëÉÉå=áå=íÜÉ=~Äåçêã~ääó=ÜáÖÜ=ëéêÉ~Çë=~Ö~áåëí=rp=íêÉ~ëìêáÉë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅêáëáëI=áåîÉëíçêë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÅçãÉ=åÉêîçìë=~Äçìí=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâëÛ=~Äáäáíó= íç=ãÉÉí=ÉîÉå=ä~êÖÉê=çÄäáÖ~íáçåë=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÇìÉ=áå=OMMVI=~åÇ=ÖêçïáåÖ=ÑìêíÜÉê=áåíç=OMNMK== qÜáë=óÉ~ê=íÜÉ=Ä~åâë=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=íç=êÉé~ó=ëçãÉ=TMM=ÄáääK=fphI=kÉñí=óÉ~ê=íÜ~í=Öêçïë=íç=TRM= ÄáääK=fph=~åÇ=íÜÉå=íç=UMM=ÄáääK=fph=áå=OMNMK=qÜÉëÉ=~êÉ=íÜÉ=~ãçìåíë=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÇìÉ=áå=~= éêçÖê~ããÉÇ=Ñ~ëÜáçåK=få=~ÇÇáíáçå=Ä~åâë=ã~ó=êáëâ=ÇÉéçëáíçê=êìåëK=^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ= cjb=êÉéçêí=ëçãÉ=QRB=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=íçí~ä=ÇÉéçëáíçê=ÑìåÇáåÖ=áë=áå=_êáíáëÜ=éçìåÇëI= ïÜáÅÜ=ã~ó=ëìÖÖÉëí=~=ëáãáä~ê=ÉñéçëìêÉ=íç=ÇÉéçëáíçêë=ïÜç=åçí=äçåÖ=~Öç=ïÉêÉ=èìÉìáåÖ= ìé=~êçìåÇ=íÜÉ=ÄäçÅâ=íç=Éãéíó=íÜÉáê=~ÅÅçìåíë=áå=~åÇ=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=~= ëçäîÉåí=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâK== = ^ë=íÜáë=Åêáëáë=Ü~ë=íìêåÉÇ=çìí=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=~=åçêã~ä=çåÉI=ã~êâÉí=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áå=fÅÉä~åÇ=Ü~ë= ÄÉÅçãÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=Ñê~ÖáäÉI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=`ap=ã~êâÉí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÅçãÉ=íÜÉ=ÄÉääïÉíÜÉê=çÑ= ã~êâÉí=ëÉåíáãÉåíK=qÜáë=ã~êâÉí=Ñáêëí=ÉñéäçÇÉÇ=áå=ä~ëí=ïáåíÉê=ëÉåÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=éêáÅÉ=çÑ= éêçíÉÅíáåÖ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÉñéçëìêÉ=íç=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=íç=ÜÉáÖÜíë=áãéäóáåÖ=~=ÇÉÑ~ìäí= éêçÄ~Äáäáíó=çÑ=ëçãÉ=RMB=çîÉê=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~êëK=qÜÉ=åçêã~ä=Ñçê==Ä~åâë=áå=íÜÉ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉ= ÅêÉÇáí=êáëâ=Åä~ëëÉë=~ë=ÇÉíÉêãáåÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=éêáÅÉë= êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=~=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=ê~íáç=çÑ=äÉëë=íÜ~å=OBK=qÜ~í=ëÉÉãÉÇ=íç=áåÇáÅ~íÉ=íÜ~í=ÉáíÜÉê=íÜÉ= ê~íáåÖë=çê=íÜÉ=`ap=ã~êâÉíë=ïÉêÉ=ïêçåÖK==^ë=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâë=~í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=ï~ë= ~ÄäÉ=íç=ê~áëÉ=ãçåÉó=áå=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=ã~êâÉíë=~í=ÅäÉ~êäó=äçïÉê=éêáÅÉëI=ÉîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ= åçí=Éñ~Åíäó=äçï=éêáÅÉëI=åìêíìêÉÇ=íÜÉ=ëìëéáÅáçå=çÑ=Ñçìä=éä~óI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=éêáãÉ=ãáåáëíÉê= ~ååçìåÅÉÇ=~=ÑáÖÜí=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=`ap=ã~êâÉíëK==cçê=~=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜë=íÜ~í=ëÉÉãÉÇ=íç=Ü~îÉ= ëçãÉ=ëìÅÅÉëëI=~ë=`ap=éêáÅÉë=Å~ãÉ=Ççïå=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=ÇìêáåÖ=^éêáä=~åÇ=j~óI=Äìí=áå= gìäó=íÜÉó=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=Öêçï=~Ö~áå=~åÇ=Ü~ë=êÉã~áåÉÇ=ÉñíêÉãÉ=îçä~íáäÉ=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉåK=qÜ~í= äÉëëÉåë=íÜÉ=ïÉáÖÜí=çÑ=íÜÉ=~êÖìãÉåí=íÜ~í=ã~êâÉíë=~êÉ=ïêçåÖI=çê=~í=äÉ~ëí=íÜ~í=íÜÉó=Å~å= É~ëáäó=ÄÉ=í~äâÉÇ=ÇçïåK==^í=äÉ~ëíI=ïÜ~íÉîÉê=~êÉ=íÜÉ=ìäíáã~íÉ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äëI=áå= íìêÄìäÉåí=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ã~êâÉíë=íÜÉ=íêìíÜ=áë=~äï~óë=ïÜ~í=óçì=Å~å=ÖÉí=çíÜÉêë=íç=ÄÉäáÉîÉK= E`çåÑK=^ééÉåÇáñNW=`ap=Ñçê=ÇìããáÉëKF== = `Éåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=êÉëÅìÉ\==qÜ~í=íìêåë=íÜÉ=èìÉëíáçå=íç=íÜÉ=Å~é~Åáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=íç= ë~îÉ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãK==qÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉã=áë=êÉéêÉëÉåíÉÇ=Äó=íÜêÉÉ=ä~êÖÉ= ìåáîÉêë~ä=Ä~åâë=~ää=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=çÑ=ëóëíÉãáÅ=áãéçêí~åÅÉ=áå=~=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅêáëáëK=tÜáäÉ= íÜÉáê=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=fph=çéÉê~íáçåë=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ë~ÑÉÖì~êÇÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉëI=áÖåçêáåÖ=íÜÉ= áåÑä~íáçå=êáëâ=çÑ=ëìÅÜ=çéÉê~íáçåëI=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=Å~ååçí=ÄÉ=ë~áÇ=~Äçìí=íÜÉáê=ÑçêÉáÖå= çéÉê~íáçåëK==qÜÉ=fph=TRM=Äáää=Ñ~ääáåÖ=ÇìÉ=áå=OMMV=áë=~í=äÉ~ëí=íïç=íáãÉë=ä~êÖÉê=íÜ~å=íÜÉ= éêÉëÉåí=äÉîÉä=çÑ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=êÉëÉêîÉë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíÉÇ=€NIR=Äáää=ëï~é= ~êê~åÖÉãÉåí=Ñêçã=çíÜÉê=kçêÇáÅ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâë=áÑ=åÉÉÇ=ëÜçìäÇ=~êáëÉK==eçïÉîÉêI= íÉÅÜåáÅ~ääó=áí=áë=åçí=èìáíÉ=ÅäÉ~ê=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=ïçìäÇ=Ñ~ÅÉ=íÜáë=ëáíì~íáçå= ~äçåÉK==cçêÉáÖå=ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë=~êÉ=áå=éêáåÅáéäÉ=ìåÇÉê=íÜÉ=éêçíÉÅíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉ= ÜçãÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉëI=~åÇ=íÜÉ=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=ëÜ~êáåÖ=ÄÉíïÉÉå=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâë=Ñçê= ëìÄëáÇá~êáÉë=áë=~éé~êÉåíäó=åçí= èìáíÉ=ÅäÉ~êK==eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ= êÉéìí~íáçå=êáëâ=Ñçê=~åó=é~êÉåí= Maturity profile of market Ä~åâ=ïçìäÇ=ãçìåí=ëÜçìäÇ=áí= funding (bill. ISK) äÉí=~=ëìÄëáÇá~êó=Ñ~ääK==qÜ~í=ã~ó= Source: Sedlabanki 2008 ìäíáã~íÉäó=ëÉåÇ=íÜÉ= êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ä~Åâ=íç=íÜÉ= 900 ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=é~êÉåí= 800 Ä~åâK=== 700 = 600 tÜáäÉ=åçÄçÇó=Ü~ë=óÉí= 500 éêÉÇáÅíÉÇ=~å=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÇÉÄíJ 400 ãçê~íçêáìãI=íÜÉ=êÉÄìáäÇáåÖ=çÑ= 300 ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áë=ÅäÉ~êäó=íÜÉ=ãçëí= 200 ìêÖÉåí=í~ëâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë= 100 ~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=~åÇ=Ä~åâëK==lå=íÜáë= 0 ëÅçêÉ=íÜÉó=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ= ÅçããÉåÇÉÇ=çå=ÇçáåÖ=~=îÉêó= ÇÉÅÉåí=àçÄI=~ë=àìÇÖÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ= åìãÄÉê=çÑ=èì~äáíó=êÉéçêíë= éìëÜÉÇ=çìí=Äó=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâI=pÉÇä~Ä~åâáI=áíë=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëìéÉêîáëçêó=~ìíÜçêáíóI=íÜÉ=cjbI=~åÇ=Äó=~ää=íÜÉ= ã~àçê=Ä~åâë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåëíáíìíáçåë=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ=îáëáíÉÇ=áå=oÉóâà~îáâK=== = ^äìãáåáìãK==qÜáë=áë=íÜÉ=ìåÇáëéìíÉÇ=ëìÅÅÉëëJëíçêó=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇK==fíë=~ÄìåÇ~åÅÉ=çÑ=ÅÜÉ~é= ~åÇ=ÅäÉ~å=êÉåÉï~ÄäÉ=ÉåÉêÖóI=ÖÉçíÜÉêã=~åÇ=ÜóÇêçJéçïÉêI=áë=Ñ~ê=Ñêçã=Ñìääó=ÉñéäçáíÉÇK== qÜÉ=Éñé~åëáçå=çÑ=~äìãáåáìã=Å~é~Åáíó=Ü~ë=ëç=Ñ~ê=éêçÖêÉëëÉÇ=ïáíÜçìí=ã~àçê=åÉÖ~íáîÉ= áåÅáÇÉåíë=~åÇ=áë=åçï=ÅçãáåÖ=çåJäáåÉ=~ë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇK==qÜÉ=êáëâ=áë=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=~äìãáåáìã= éêáÅÉ=ã~ó=Ñ~ää=~äçåÖ=ïáíÜ=çíÜÉê=ÅçããçÇáíáÉë=áå=íÜÉ=óÉ~êë=~ÜÉ~ÇK==qç=ëçãÉ=ÉñíÉåí= fÅÉä~åÇ=ïáää=ÄÉ=ëÜÉäíÉêÉÇ=Ñêçã=ëìÅÜ=éêáÅÉ=î~êá~íáçåë=Ä~êêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=ÉîÉåí=íÜ~í= éêáÅÉë=Ñ~ää=íçç=äçï=Ñçê=éêçÇìÅíáçå=íç=ÄÉ=ã~áåí~áåÉÇK==líÜÉêïáëÉI=äçïÉê=éêáÅÉë=ïáää=ëÉÉ= Éñéçêí=êÉîÉåìÉë=ÇêçéI=Äìí=éêçÄ~Ääó=åç=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=êÉé~íêá~íáçå=çÑ=éêçÑáíë=íç=íÜÉ= ÑçêÉáÖå=çïåÉêëK==^ë=ëìÅÜI=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ëÜçìäÇ=êÉã~áå= ìå~ÑÑÉÅíÉÇI=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=fÅÉä~åÇÛë=çïå=ÅçåíêáÄìíáçåI=ã~áåäó=ÉäÉÅíêáÅáíó=éêçîáÇÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~åÇ=ëçãÉ=äçÅ~ä=ãìåáÅáé~äëI=Ü~ë=áíë=éêáÅÉ=éêçíÉÅíÉÇ=Äó=äçåÖ=íÉêã=ëìééäó= ~ÖêÉÉãÉåíëK=eçïÉîÉêI=ëìÅÜ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåíë=~êÉ=ìëì~ääó=ÅçåëíêìÅíÉÇ=ïáíÜ=ëçãÉ=êÉÑÉêÉåÅÉ= íç=íÜÉ=éêáÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ã~áå=çìíéìíK==qÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=Ü~ë=åçí=óÉí=ÄÉÉå= ÇáëÅäçëÉÇ=ã~ó=ÖáîÉ=äÉÖáíáã~íÉ=êáëÉ=íç=ëéÉÅìä~íáçåë=íÜ~í=fÅÉä~åÇ=ã~ó=~ÑíÉê=~ää=åçí=ÄÉ= áãéÉêîáçìë=íç=~=Çêçé=çÑ=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=éêáÅÉ=çÑ=~äìãáåáìãK== = JGJ= = qÜÉ=áã~ÖÉ=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇI=íÜÉ=~êÅíáÅ=íáÖÉêI=Ü~ë=Ñ~ìäíÉÇK==qÜ~í=ÇçÉë=åçí=ãÉ~å=íÜ~í=íÜÉáê= ëíê~íÉÖó=íç=ÇáîÉêëáÑó=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ï~ë=ïêçåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=éä~ÅÉI=Äìí=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ëéÉÉÇ=çÑ= Éñé~åëáçå=áåíç=åÉï=íÉêêáíçêáÉë=Å~ãÉ=íç=çîÉêJÉñéçëÉ=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=íç=Ñ~íJí~áä=êáëâëI=íÜ~í= ãÉ~åë=êáëâë=íÜ~í=åçêã~ääó=ëÜçìäÇ=åçí=çÅÅìêI=Äìí=áÑ=íÜÉó=ÇçI=Üáí=ïáíÜ=ìåìëì~ä= ëÉîÉêáíóK==qÜ~í=áë=íÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=Ñ~ÅÉÇ=Äó=~ää=ÖäçÄ~ä=ã~êâÉíë=é~êíáÅáé~åíë=íçÇ~óI=áå= ïÜáÅÜ=ëìëéáÅáçå=ã~ó=êáëÉ=~í=íÜÉ=ëäáÖÜíÉëí=Üáåí=çÑ=~åó=íçñáÅ=~ëëÉíë=ÜáÇÇÉå=áå=íÜÉáê= éçêíÑçäáçë=çê=ÇìÉ=íç=çåÉêçìë=åÉ~ê=íÉêã=êÉÑáå~åÅáåÖ=åÉÉÇë=áå=~=ã~êâÉí=éä~ÅÉ=ïÜÉêÉ= åçÄçÇó=áë=ïáääáåÖ=íç=ÖáîÉ=~ï~ó=äáèìáÇáíó=~í=~åó=åçêã~ä=éêáÅÉK==qÜ~í=áë=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ=ëç= íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ëáíì~íáçå=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=~åÇ=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ã~ÖåáíìÇÉ=çÑ=íÜÉáê= ÉñéçëìêÉI=~åó=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Öì~ê~åíÉÉ=Å~êêáÉë=çåäó=äáãáíÉÇ=ïÉáÖÜíK==tÜáäÉ=íÜÉ= ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÉÅçåçãó=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=Ü~îÉ=ã~å~ÖÉÇ=íÜÉ=Åêáëáë=çå=áíë=çïåI=áíë=äáåâ~ÖÉ=íç=íÜÉ= ÑçêÉáÖå=~êãë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãI=áë=~å=~ÇÇáíáçå~ä=íÜêÉ~í=íç=áíë= êÉëáäáÉåÅÉK==^ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄ~ÅäÉ=áå=íÜÉ=rp=íç=ëÜçêÉ=ìé=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áå=rp=Ä~åâë=~åÇ=~ë=~= ÅçåëÉèìÉåÅÉ=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=Ñáå~åÅÉ=ã~êâÉíëI=íÜÉ=ëáíì~íáçå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë= ÅçìäÇ=ëççå=ÄÉÅçãÉ=îÉêó=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇK== =

hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë

OMMU

mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF

MIP

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF

JNB

fåÑä~íáçå=

NOB

`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

Macro balance

_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

11 9

5 3

Liquidity

1

Absence of event risk

P NB

dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam

13

-1

JNRB

oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF

Resilience

7

SN=VRS

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW===^HLåÉÖK cáíÅÜW===__JLéçë pCmW==^H=LåÉÖK= jççÇóDëW=_~P= jççÇóDëW=^~~ pCmW==__JLéçë=

How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.

Iceland

Information

Average EM

OSB mÉÉêëW eçåÖ=hçåÖ bëíçåá~= eìåÖ~êó

dê~éÜW=qÜÉ=éÉåí~Öçå=ëÜçïë=fÅÉä~åÇDë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ= Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worse ëâÉïÉÇ=íçï~êÇ=äçåÖÉê=íÉêã=Ñ~Åíçêë=JJïáíÜ=ëíêçåÖ= than average in all respects including to its ëÅçêáåÖë=çÑ=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉI=ïÜáäÉ=ÉîÉåí=êáëâ=~åÇ= traditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weaker áåÑçêã~íáçå=êáëâ=Ü~ë=ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇK=fí=ëÅçêÉë=ïÉ~â=çå= liquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk. äáèìáÇáíó=~åÇ=ã~Åêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉK

=

=

6

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

hÉó=Ç~í~W OMMO OMMP OMMQ OMMR OMMS OMMT dam=EÄáääK=rpAF UIV NNIM NPIO NSIP NSIT OMIM damLÅ~éáí~=ErpAF PNMSR PTUOR QRNRP RRNSP RSMVT SSPRM dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF MINB OIQB TITB TIRB QIQB PIUB fåîÉëíãÉåíëLdam NUB OMB OPB OVB PQB OUB _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam JOIRB JOIUB MIMB QIVB SIPB RIOB dçîí=ÇÉÄíLdam MB QNB PRB ORB PMB OVB `mf=áåÑä~íáçå=EBF RIOB OINB OIUB QIOB SITB RINB jçåÉó=ÇÉã~åÇ=EBF VIUB OMIPB NMITB ORIOB RPIQB NNISB píçÅâ=éêáÅÉë=EBÅÜ~åÖÉF NVB OQB TPB QOB PSB OTB fåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë NNIO RIO RIU VIM NOIQ NQIM bñÅÜK=o~íÉ=EAF VNIS TSIT TMIO SOIV SVIV SQIN qê~ÇÉLdam=EBF TPB TOB TQB TSB UOB UNB láä=éêáÅÉ=E_êÉåíFA OU OQ OR OV PU RS _áääáçåë=rp=A bñéçêí=çÑ=ÖççÇë PIP PIU QIR RIO RIQ TIN fãéçêíë=çÑ=ÖççÇë PIO QIN RIP TIO UIQ VIO líÜÉêW NIM NIS NIU NIP NIQ NIR `ìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí MIN JMIR JNIP JOIS JQIO JPIO ====B=çÑ=dam NISB JQIUB JVIVB JNSINB JORIMB JNRIUB kÉí=caf JMIO MIM JNIU JQIM JNIP JVIN iç~å=êÉé~óãÉåíë NIS NIT NIT OIM OIP QIS kÉí=çíÜÉê=Å~éáí~ä=Ñäçïë JNIQ JMIU NIT QIS QIQ TIV _~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíë MIN MIP MIP MIM NIP MIP oÉëÉêîÉë MIQ MIU NIM NIM OIP OIR qçí~ä=ÇÉÄí VIU NOIN NTIQ OVIO ROIV UOIR ===çLï=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí NIQ NIR PIT RIP UIO NPIT pçìêÅÉëW=lñÑçêÇ=bÅçåçãáÅë=~åÇ=pb_=Éëíáã~íÉë o~íáåÖ=Üáëíçêó cáíÅÜ=EÉçóF ^^J ^^J ^^J ^^J ^^J ^H pCm=EÉçóF ^H ^H ^H ^^J ^H ^H qóéÉ=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíW `ÉåíêÉJêáÖÜí=Åç~äáíáçå=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= kÉñí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë m~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÉäÉÅíáçåëW=OMMVK=mêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåëW=OMNM líÜÉêW i~íÉëí=m`=ÇÉ~ä kçåÉ oÉÅÉåí=fjc=éêçÖê~ãë NVUT=`cc=Éñéçêíë

OMMU NUIU SNVRS JNIPB ORB NIQB OSB NNIRB JNIQB

OMMV ONIM SUTOO NIOB OPB JNIPB OSB TIMB NIPB

NRIM TRIM VOB SQ

NNIM TOIR UTB RQ

TIT VIS NIR JOIV JNRIQB JUIN QIV SIO MIN OIT NPMIM QTIT

UIP VIV N IR JOIQ JNNISB JUIR NMIR MIS MIN O IU NPOIV QSIO

S h a r e p r ic e s

Exchange rates

( O M X p ric e re tu r n )

9000

130

8000 7000

110 Index

6000

90 70

5000 4000 3000 2000

50 96

98

00

02

04

EUR/ISK

06

08

1000 0 1998

USD/ISK

2000

2002

2004

2006

Source: Reuters EcoWin

In te r e s t ra te s

C onsum er P rices 20

15 13

Housing Percent

Percent

15

2008 S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W in

10

R e p o ra t e

11 9

T -N o te 2 0 1 0

7

T otal

5

M o rt g a g e ra t e (H F F )

5 3

0 1 998

01 2000

2002

A ll items (1997:3=10 0) [ar 12 months]

2004

2006

02

03

04

05

06

07

08

200 8 P o li c y R a te s , R e p o R a te Ic e la n d , G o ve rnm e nt B o nd s , T re a s ury N o te 2 0 1 0 , Yie ld , C lo s e , IS K M o rtg a g e B e nc hm a rk s , H o u s ing F ina nc in g F und B o nd (2 0 4 4 ), Yie ld , C lo s e S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in

Housing [ar 12 mo nths] S ou rce: R euters E coW in

=

7

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

= lÅíçÄÉê=UI=OMMU= =

oÉÅÉåí=ÉîÉåíëW= = páåÅÉ=íÜÉ=Ç~ó=íÜáë=ï~ë=ïêáííÉåI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=Ü~ë=áåíÉêîÉåÉÇ=íç=ë~îÉ=íïç=çÑ=íÜÉ= ÅçìåíêóÛë=ä~êÖÉëí=Ä~åâëK==lå=pÉéíÉãÄÉê=OVI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Ü~Ç=íç=áåàÉÅí=åÉï=Å~éáí~ä= áåíç=däáíåáêI=fÅÉä~åÇÛë==íÜáêÇ=ä~êÖÉëí=Ä~åâI=íç=ëíçé=íÜÉ=ÉêçÇáåÖ=çÑ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áå= íÜÉ=Ä~åâI=ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~Ç=ëÉÉå=áíë=ëÜ~êÉ=éêáÅÉ=Ñ~ää=ê~éáÇäóK==fí=áë=~äëç=äáâÉäóI=~äíÜçìÖÜ=ïÉ= Ü~îÉ=åçí=ëÉÉå=íÜ~í=ÅçåÑáêãÉÇI=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=Ü~Ç=ÉåÅçìåíÉêÉÇ=éêçÄäÉãë=áå=ëÉÅìêáåÖ= áíë=áããÉÇá~íÉ=ÑìåÇáåÖI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áå=áíë=~Äáäáíó=íç=~ééêç~ÅÜ=íÜÉ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=áåíÉêJ Ä~åâ=ã~êâÉíK==cçääçïáåÖ=íÜ~í=ÉéáëçÇÉI=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅáÉë=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉÇ=íÜÉ= Ä~åâë=~åÇ=~äëç=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖå=Äó=çåÉ=åçíÅÜK== = qÜÉåI=çå=lÅíçÄÉê=SI=~åçíÜÉê=ê~íáåÖ=~ÖÉåÅó=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉÇ=ëÉîÉê~ä=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâë=~åÇ= ~äëç=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖåK==cçê=íÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=íÜÉ=ÇçïåÖê~ÇÉ=ãçìåíÉÇ=íç=íïç=åçíÅÜÉëI=~å= ìåìëì~ä=ãçîÉ=ëÉäÇçã=ëÉÉå=çìíëáÇÉ=Åêáëáë=ëáíì~íáçåëK==qÜ~í=ï~ë=áåÇÉÉÇ=ÖççÇ=íáãáåÖI= ~ë=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=åÉñí=Ç~ó=ë~ï=áíë=ëÉÅçåÇ=ä~êÖÉëí=Ä~åâI=i~åÇëÄ~åâáI=~ëâ=Ñçê=Ä~åâêìéíÅó= éêçíÉÅíáçå=EêÉÅÉáîÉêëÜáéF=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK==^=ëíêáåÖ=çÑ=ÉîÉåíë=ÑçääçïÇI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ= ~å=~ååçìåÅÉãÉåí=çå=íÜÉ=Ñêçåí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä= pçãÉÄçÇó=Ü~ë=ë~áÇ=íÜ~í=áå= Ä~åâÛë=ïÉÄJëáíÉ=íÜ~í=oìëëá~=ëÜçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ= Ñáå~åÅÉ=~åÇ=ÉÅçåçãáÅë=íÜáåÖë= éêçãáëÉÇ=ëìééçêí=íç=íÜÉ=íìåÉ=çÑ=Éìêç=Q=ÄáääK= åÉîÉê=Ü~ééÉå=~ë=ëççå=~ë=óçì= çîÉê=P=óÉ~êëK===fí=ï~ë=~äëç=~ääìÇÉÇ=íç=éçëëáÄäÉ= íÜáåâ=íÜÉó=ïçìäÇI=Äìí=ïÜÉå= fjc=ëìééçêí=~åÇ=~=íÉ~ã=çÑ=fjc=ÉñéÉêíë=Ü~Ç= íÜÉó=Çç=Ü~ééÉåI=íÜÉó=Ü~ééÉå= êÉéçêíÉÇäó=~êêáîÉÇ=áå=oÉóâà~îáâ=çîÉê=íÜÉ= ãìÅÜ=Ñ~ëíÉê=íÜ~å=óçì=íÜáåâ= éêÉÅÉÇáåÖ=ïÉÉâJÉåÇK== íÜÉó=ÅçìäÇK= = fÅÉä~åÇ=~ééÉ~êë=åçï=áå=ÑêÉÉ=Ñ~ää=~åÇ=áå=Ä~Çäó= åÉÉÇ=çÑ=~=äáÑÉ=ë~îÉêK==pÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=åçï=Ñ~áä=áå=ãÉÉíáåÖ=íÜÉ=Å~ääë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ= ã~åó=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÇÉéçëáíçêë=áå=i~åÇëÄ~åâáÛë=~ííê~ÅíáîÉ=fÅÉë~îáåÖ=éêçÖê~ã=êÉÖ~êÇáåÖ=íÜÉ= ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâÛë=ÇÉéçëáí=Öì~ê~åíÉÉI=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïáää=ÉÑÑÉÅíáîÉäó=ÄÉ=áå=ÇÉÑ~ìäíK==tÉ= Çç=åçí=âåçï=íÜÉ=íçí~ä=ëáòÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÇÉéçëáíëI=Äìí=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=íÜÉëÉ=ïÉêÉ=ã~áåäó=ëçäÇ= áå=íÜÉ=rh=~åÇ=íÜ~í=d_m=ÇÉéçëáíë=ÅçãéêáëÉ=QRB=çÑ=~ää=ÇÉéçëáíë=áå=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâëI= ëìÖÖÉëíë=íÜÉ=éçëëáÄáäáíó=çÑ=~å=çåÉêçìëäó=ä~êÖÉ=åìãÄÉêI=éêçÄ~Ääó=çìíëáÇÉ=íÜÉ=Å~é~Åáíó= çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâK== = qÜÉ=ê~íáåÖ=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇ=áë=åçï=~å=~Å~ÇÉãáÅ=áëëìÉK==kÉ~ê=íÉêã=ìåÅÉêí~áåíó=áë=ëç=ÜáÖÜ=íÜ~í= íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=ÄÉ=ëÜìí=çìí=çÑ=~åó=êÉÖìä~ê=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ã~êâÉíK==qÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=áë= åçï=áå=åÉÉÇ=çÑ=~=äçåÖ=êÉÅçîÉêó=éÉêáçÇI=~ÑíÉê=Ü~îáåÖ=ÄáííÉå=íÜÉ=ÄìääÉí=~åÇ=ÖçåÉ=íç=íÜÉ= fjc=Å~é=áå=Ü~åÇK==qÜÉ=oìëëá~å=~êÉ=ìåäáâÉäó=íç=êÉé~áê=äçëí=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó= Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=ëÜçêí=íÉêãK==

8

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

= = = = ^mmbkafu= = `ap=Ñçê=ÇìããáÉë= = qÜÉ=`ap=E`êÉÇáí=ÇÉêáî~íáîÉ=ëï~éF=ã~êâÉí=áë=éêçÄ~Ääó=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇÛë=ä~êÖÉëí=ã~êâÉí=çÑ= ~åó=ÖççÇ=~åÇ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=Ää~ãÉÇ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=éêÉÇáÅ~ãÉåí=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâëK==qÜÉ= ÑçääçïáåÖ=íêáÉë=íç=Éñéä~áå=ëçãÉ=ÉäÉãÉåíë=çÑ=íÜáë=ã~êâÉíK==tÜáäÉ=íÜáë=Éñéä~å~íáçå=ïáää= åçí=ÄÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉI=ïÉ=ÜçéÉ=áí=ã~ó=ÄÉ=íç=ëçãÉ=ÜÉäé=íç=ëçãÉÄçÇóK== = ^ë=ÖçÉë=íÜÉ=çäÇ=~Ç~ÖÉI=äáííäÉ=áå=Ñáå~åÅÉ=áë=ëç=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇ=íÜ~í=éìí=áå=íÜÉ=~ééêçéêá~íÉ= ä~åÖì~ÖÉ=Å~ååçí=ÄÉ=Éñéä~áåÉÇ=íç=~åó=åçêã~ä=Ñáêëí=Öê~ÇÉêK==táíÜ=íÜáë=Ä~ÅâÖêçìåÇ=áí= ï~ë=áåÑçêã~íáîÉ=íç=äÉ~êå=~í=íÜÉ=çéÉåáåÖ=çÑ=~=êÉÅÉåí=`ap=Åä~ëë=áå=kÉï=vçêâ=íÜ~í= ~ãçåÖ=~ää=íÜÉ=ÉëçíÉêáÅ=ÇÉêáî~íáîÉë=íÜÉ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=áåÇìëíêó=Ü~ë=ÅçãÉ=ìé=ïáíÜ=ëç=Ñ~êI= `ap=êÉã~áåë=çåÉ=çÑ=ëáãéäÉêK==^êÉ=óçì=~ÄäÉ=íç=Äìó=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉ=óçì=ëÜçìäÇ=åçï=íÜÉ= Ä~ëáÅë=çÑ=íê~ÇáåÖ=`apK==få=ÄçíÜ=Å~ëÉë=óçì=Äìó=éêçíÉÅíáçå=~Ö~áåëí=~å=ìåÜ~ééó=ÉîÉåí= íÜ~í=ÉáíÜÉê=óçì=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=óçìê=Å~ê=çê=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=áëëìÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÄçåÇ=óçì=ÜçäÇ=ïçåÛí=êÉé~ó= óçì=~í=ã~íìêáíóK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉêÉ=~êÉ=ÅÉêí~áå=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåÅÉëI=ïÜáäÉ=éÉêÜ~éë=ëìéÉêÑáÅá~äI= ëíáää=ã~âÉ=~=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåÅÉK=== = qê~åëé~êÉåÅóW==iáâÉ=~åóÄçÇó=ïÜç=Ü~ë=ÉîÉê=Ü~Ç=íÜÉ=Åçìê~ÖÉ=íç=Äìó=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉI= óçì=âåçï=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÇÉîáä=áë=áå=íÜÉ=ÇÉí~áäëK==qÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=ÖçÉë=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ=Ñçê=`apI=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ= áÑ=óçìê=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉ=ã~ó=Åçåí~áå=OJP=é~ÖÉë=çÑ=ÑáåÉ=éêáåí=ïáíÜ=~ää=âáåÇë=çÑ=äáãáí~íáçåë= íç=íÜÉ=äá~ÄáäáíáÉë=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçäáÅó=ïêáíÉêI=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=Ñçê=`ap=ìëÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=ëçãÉ=ORJPM=é~ÖÉëI= ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=áåíêçÇìÅíáçå=çÑ=~=ëí~åÇ~êÇ=Åçåíê~Åí=ëáòÉÇ=íÜÉ=íÉñí=Ççïå=íç=R=é~ÖÉëK== få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉ=éçäáÅáÉë=~êÉ=çÑíÉå=~ÇîÉêíáëÉÇ=ïáíÜ=áåÇáÅ~íáîÉ=éêáÅáåÖK==qÜÉ= éêáÅáåÖ=çÑ=~=`ap=áë=åÉÖçíá~íÉÇ=çå=~=Å~ëÉ=Äó=Å~ëÉ=Ä~ëáëK==qÜÉó=~êÉ=ê~êÉäó=ëçäÇ=ëç=Å~ääÉÇ= “çîÉêJíÜÉJÅçìåíÉêÒI=íÜ~í=áë=åçí=áå=~å=çéÉå=ã~êâÉí=ïÜÉêÉ=çåÉ=Å~å=ëÉÉ=éêáÅÉë=ãçîÉ=áå= êÉ~ä=íáãÉK=== = oÉÖìä~íáçåW===tÜáäÉ=áå=ãçëí=ÅçìåíêáÉë=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉ=éçäáÅó=ïêáíÉêë=~êÉ=çîÉêëÉÉå=Äó= ëçãÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~ÖÉåÅó=çê=~åó=çíÜÉê=áãé~êíá~ä=çêÖ~åáò~íáçåI=áí=~ééÉ~êë=íÜ~í= ~åóÄçÇó=Å~å=í~âÉ=ìéçå=ÜáãëÉäÑ=íç=ëÉää=~=`apI=áKÉK=íç=áåëìêÉ=óçì=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=çÑ= íÜÉ=ÄçåÇ=çê=ëáãáä~ê=~ëëÉí=óçì=ã~ó=ÜçäÇK=fí=áë=ìé=íç=óçì=íç=îÉêáÑó=íÜÉ=éêçÑÉëëáçå~äáëãI= áåíÉÖêáíó=ÉíÅK=çÑ=íÜÉ=éçäáÅó=ïêáíÉêK== = “póåíÜÉíáÅ=éêçíÉÅíáçåÒW==fí=Ü~ë=éêçÄ~Ääó=åÉîÉê=çÅÅìêêÉÇ=íç=óçì=íç=Äìó=áåëìê~åÅÉ=çå=~= Å~ê=óçì=Çç=åçí=çïåI=Ñçê=Éñ~ãéäÉ=óçìê=åÉáÖÜÄçìêÛë=Å~êI=Äìí=íÜ~í=áë=~Åíì~ääó=ïÜ~í=óçì= Çç=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=áå=íÜÉ=`ap=ã~êâÉíK==qÜÉ=çìíëí~åÇáåÖ=~ãçìåí=áå=íÜÉ=`ap=ã~êâÉí= áë=~=ïÜçééáåÖ=ASP=íêáääáçåI=ëçãÉ=íÉå=íáãÉë=íÜÉ=ìåÇÉêäóáåÖ=î~äìÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=áåëìêÉÇ=~ëëÉíëK== qÜ~í=áë=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=íáãÉ=óçì=ëáãéäó=Äìó=éêçíÉÅíáçå=~Ö~áåëí=~ëëÉíë=óçì=Çç=åçí= çïåK==qç=éìí=áí=ëáãéäóW=óçì=~ÖêÉÉ=íç=é~ó=~=êÉÖìä~ê=~ãçìåí=íç=~åçíÜÉê=éÉêëçå=ïÜç= íÜÉå=áë=çÄäáÖÉÇ=íç=é~ó=óçì=~=ÅÉêí~áå=EäáâÉäó=ãìÅÜ=ÄáÖÖÉê=~ãçìåí>F=áå=Å~ëÉ=çÑ=~=ÅÉêí~áå= ëéÉÅáÑáÉÇ=ÑìíìêÉ=ÉîÉåí=ïÜáÅÜ=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉäó=ìåêÉä~íÉÇ=íç=óçìê=éêÉëÉåí=éçêíÑçäáçK== qÜ~í=ã~âÉë=áí=éçëëáÄäÉ=Ñçê=óçì=íç=Äìó=áåíç=ÅêÉÇáí=ÉñéçëìêÉ=ïáíÜçìí=ÉîÉê=Ü~îáåÖ=íç= äÉåÇ=~åó=ãçåÉó=íç=íÜÉ=ÖìóëK==^ë=ÉñÉãéäáÑáÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÅÜ~êí=ÄÉäçï=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Åä~ëë=áå= kÉï=vçêâI=ÜçäÇáåÖ=~=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~êë=qJÄáää=~åÇ=ëÉää=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=éêçíÉÅíáçå=çå=~=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~ê=f_j= ÄçåÇ=ÖáîÉë=óçì=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÉñéçëìêÉ=~ë=ÄìóáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÄçåÇ=áíëÉäÑ=éêçîáÇÉÇ=~å= ÉÑÑáÅáÉåí=ã~êâÉÇ=íÜ~í=Éèì~íÉë=íÜÉ=~ÇÇáíáçå~ä=ÅêÉÇáí=êáëâ=~ÄçîÉ=qJÄáääë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ==éêáÅÉ= çÑ=íÜÉ=`apK==qÜÉêÉ=~êÉ=ëÉîÉê~ä=êÉ~ëçåë=íÜáë=ã~âÉë=ëÉåëÉI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=êÉÖìä~íçêó=çê= çíÜÉê=êÉëíêáÅíáçåë=çå=íÜÉ=íóéÉ=çÑ=~ëëÉíë=óçì=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=áå=óçìê=éçêíÑçäáçK== = lççéëI=Äìí=f=åç=äçåÖÉê=ï~åí=íÜáë=éêçíÉÅíáçåLÉñéçëìêÉ>==få=ãçëí=ã~êâÉíë=óçì=Å~å= Üçé=~êçìåÇ=ïáíÜ=óçìê=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉ=ÉîÉêó=óÉ~ê=ïÜÉå=áí=áë=ìé=Ñçê=êÉåÉï~äI=Äìí=ãçëí= 9

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

`ap=~ÖêÉÉãÉåíë=Å~ååçí=ÄÉ=ÄêçâÉå=Ü~äÑ=ï~ó=íÜêçìÖÜK==qÜÉêÉÑçêÉ=áÑ=óçì=Çç=åç=äçåÖÉê= ï~åí=íç=Ü~îÉ=íÜÉ=éêçíÉÅíáçå=~Ö~áåëí=~=ëéÉÅáÑáÅ=ÇÉÑ~ìäíI=óçì=ïáää=Ü~îÉ=íç=ëÉää=áí=íç= ëçãÉÄçÇó=ÉäëÉK==få=íÜ~í=Å~ëÉ=óçì=ïáää=âÉÉé=óçìê=çêáÖáå~ä=Åçåíê~Åí=~åÇ=é~ó=íÜÉ=~ååì~ä= éêÉãáìãI=Äìí=~í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=êÉÅÉáîÉ=~å=~ååì~ä=éêÉãáìã=EéÉêÜ~éë=~=äÉëëÉê=~ãçìåíF= Ñêçã=íÜÉ=åÉï=éÉêëçå=ïÜç=ÄçìÖÜí=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=áåëìê~åÅÉ=Ñêçã=óçìK==få=íÜ~í=Å~ëÉI=ïÜ~í= ãáÖÜí=çêáÖáå~ääó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=~=`ap=ïêáííÉå=çå=çåÉ=~ëëÉíI=ÄÉÅçãÉë=íïç=`ap=ïêáííÉå=çå= íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=~ëëÉíëK==qÜ~í=áë=~åçíÜÉê=çÄîáçìë=êÉ~ëçå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ä~ääççåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíK== = pÉííäÉãÉåí=çÑ=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=é~óãÉåíK==iáâÉ=Å~ê=áåëìê~åÅÉ=áí=áë=çÑíÉå=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=íç=~ëëÉëë=íÜÉ= Ç~ã~ÖÉ=óçì=Ü~îÉ=ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=~åÇ=Üçï=ãìÅÜ=íÜÉ=áåëìêÉê=ëÜçìäÇ=é~ó=óçìK==qÜÉ=ë~ãÉ= ÖçÉë=Ñçê=`ap=Åçåíê~ÅíëK==jçëí=çÑ=íÜÉã=ïáää=åçí=ÖáîÉ=óçì=íÜÉ=Éñ~Åí=~ãçìåí=çÑ=íÜÉ= ÇÉÑ~ìäíÉÇ=ÄçåÇI=Äìí=çåäó=ÅçãéÉåë~íÉ=óçì=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=óçì=Ü~îÉ=ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=ïÜáÅÜ= ã~ó=ÄÉ=êÉä~íÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉí=éêáÅÉ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑ~ìäíK==bîÉå=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=íÜÉ= ÄçåÇ=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=ëçãÉ=ã~êâÉí=î~äìÉK==qÜ~í=ïáää=åçêã~ääó=ÄÉ=ãìÅÜ=äçïÉê=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí= Ç~óë=ÑçääçïáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=íÜ~å=~ÑíÉê=~=ÑÉï=ïÉÉâë=ïÜó=`ap=Åçåíê~Åíë=çÑíÉå=ëíáéìä~íÉ= ~=ÅÉêí~áå=“Öê~ÅÉÒ=éÉêáçÇ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=ÇÉÅáÇáåÖ=Ç~ã~ÖÉ=ÅçãéÉåë~íáçåK==qÜáë=Å~å=ÄÉ=~= ÇÉîáäáëÜäó=ÅçãéäáÅ~íÉÇ=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉ=`ap=Åçåíê~ÅíK== = fÅÉä~åÇW=eçï=íç=áåëìêÉ=~=cçêãìä~JN=Å~ê\==páåÅÉ=É~êäó=OMMU=`ap=ëéêÉ~Çë=çå=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ= Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ=Öóê~íÉÇ=ïáäÇäóK==få=íÜÉ=É~êäó=ëéêáåÖ=êìãçìêë=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=ÅáêÅìä~íÉ=çÑ=~= ëÅÜÉãÉ=Äó=ëçãÉ=íê~ÇÉêë=íç=ÜáâÉ=íÜÉ=`ap=éêáÅÉë=çå=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ãçíáîÉ=íç= íêáÖÖÉê=~=ÑáêÉ=ë~äÉ=çÑ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâ=ëÜ~êÉ=ïÜáÅÜ=íÜÉ=íê~ÇÉêë=Ü~Ç=~äêÉ~Çó=ëÜçêíÉÇK=== qÜ~í=ãáÖÜí=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÇÉÉãÉÇ=áääÉÖ~ä=ã~êâÉí=ã~åáéìä~íáçåI=Äìí=ÄÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= ëã~ääåÉëë=çÑ=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ã~êâÉíI=ëìÅÜ=~=ëÅÜÉãÉ=ÅçìäÇ=éêçÄ~Ääó=Öç=ìåÇÉíÉÅíÉÇ=äçåÖ= ÉåçìÖÜ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éÉêéÉíê~íçêë=íç=ã~âÉ=ãçåÉóK== = tÜáäÉ=áí=áë=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=íç=îÉêáÑó=ëìÅÜ=ÄÉÜ~îáçìê=ïáíÜ=~åó=ÅÉêí~áåíó=áí=áë=~äëç=ÅäÉ~ê=íÜ~í=íÜÉ= `ap=ëéêÉ~Ç=Ü~îÉ=~í=íáãÉë=ÄÉÉå=ïáäÇäó=çìí=çÑ=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=éêáÅÉë=çÄí~áåÉÇ=Äó= fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâë=ïÜÉå=áëëìáåÖ=åÉï=ÄçåÇëK==qÜÉ=éêÉãáìãë=EáåíÉêÉëí=ëéêÉ~ÇëF=é~áÇ=çå= íÜÉ=ä~ííÉê=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ëçãÉ=OMJPMB=äçïÉê=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=éêáÅáåÖ=çÑ=`ap=çå=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=Ä~åâëK== ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ëçãÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=ÉÅçåçãáëíëI=íÜÉêÉ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=ÑáîÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=Ä~åâë=~ÅíáîÉ=áå= çÑÑÉêáåÖ=`ap=çå=fÅÉä~åÇI=~åÇ=íÜÉó=Ü~îÉ=êÉéçêíÉÇäó=~ÇãáííÉÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉí=Ü~ë= ÄÉÉå=îÉêó=íÜáåI=éÉêÜ~éë=ÉîÉå=åçåJÉñáëíÉåíI=áå=éÉêáçÇë=çÑ=îÉêó=ÜáÖÜ=éêáÅÉëK==qÜÉ= éêáÅáåÖ=áå=éÉêáçÇë=çÑ=åç=íê~ÇÉ=Ü~ë=ã~áåäó=êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=íÜÉ=Ñ~ääçìí=Ñêçã=íÉÅÜåáÅ~ä=éêáÅáåÖ= Ñçêãìä~ëK== = ^ÑíÉê=íÜÉ=fÅÉä~åÇáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ=Åêáëáë=ÉêìéíÉÇ=íïç=ïÉÉâë=~ÖçI=íÜÉ=`ap=ëéêÉ~Çë=Ü~îÉ= ÖçåÉ=ÉîÉå=ÜáÖÜÉêI=ìé=íç=QRMMÄëé=EQRBF=çå=~=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~êë=áåëìê~åÅÉK==^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç= ÉñéÉêíë=ïÉ=Ü~îÉ=ÅçåëìäíÉÇ=íÜ~í=~éé~êÉåíäó=ãÉ~åë=íÜ~í=íç=éêçíÉÅí=óçìê=Åä~áãë=çå= íÜÉëÉ=Ä~åâë=óçì=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=íç=é~ó=~å=~ååì~ä=éêÉãáìã=çÑ=~äãçëí=Ü~äÑ=íÜÉ=î~äìÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= ~ëëÉí=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~êëK==fÑ=íÜ~í=Ü~Ç=ÄÉÉå=óçìê=Å~ê=áí=ãÉ~åë=íÜ~í=áå=ÑáîÉ=óÉ~êë= óçì=ïáää=ÉåÇ=ìé=é~óáåÖ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=íïáÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=î~äìÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Å~êK==tçìäÇåÛí=ãçëí= éÉçéäÉ=ê~íÜÉê=Å~ëÜ=áå=íÜÉ=ëÅê~é=î~äìÉ\== =

10

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis Sept. 28, 2008

= aáëÅä~áãÉê= = `çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉ= = qÜÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áå=íÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=ÄÉ=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê= êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçåK= = fãéçêí~åíW=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíë= = qÜÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áå=íÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=Äó=pb_=jÉêÅÜ~åí=_~åâáåÖI=~å= Éåíáíó=ïáíÜáå=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=E“pb_ÒFI=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä= áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=fí=áë=åçí=áåíÉåÇÉÇ=ÑçêI=~åÇ=ãìëí=åçí=ÄÉ=é~ëëÉÇ=íçI=oÉí~áä=`äáÉåíëK=fÑ=óçì= ~êÉ=åçí=~=ÅäáÉåí=çÑ=çìêëI=óçì=~êÉ=åçí=ÉåíáíäÉÇ=íç=íÜáë=êÉéçêíK=qÜáë=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áë= éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíëI=~åÇ=pb_=jÉêÅÜ~åí=_~åâáåÖ=áë=åçí= ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK= = léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=íÜáë=êÉéçêí=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâÛë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå=çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ= ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=íÜáë=êÉéçêí=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå= ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã=ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç= êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëëÉÇ=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ=êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ= ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=áíë=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå= ~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK=oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ= áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK=qÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=áë=ÄÉáåÖ=éêçîáÇÉÇ=Ñçê=óçìê= áåÑçêã~íáçå=çåäóI=~åÇ=åç=ëéÉÅáÑáÅ=~Åíáçåë=~êÉ=ÄÉáåÖ=ëçäáÅáíÉÇ=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=áíX=íç=íÜÉ= ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê= ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜáë=ÇçÅìãÉåí=çê=áíë=ÅçåíÉåíëK= = vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~å=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ= Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI=çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë= ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=E~F=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí=éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå= íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë=ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=ÜÉêÉáåI=EÄF=Äìó= çê=ëÉääI=ã~âÉ=~=ã~êâÉí=Eçê=éêçîáÇÉ=äáèìáÇáíóF=áåI=çê=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=~å=áëëìÉ=çÑ=ëìÅÜ= ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çê=çéíáçåëI=Ñçê=ïÜáÅÜ=pb_=ã~ó=êÉÅÉáîÉ=ÅçãéÉåë~íáçå= = pb_=áë=~=éìÄäáÅ=Åçãé~åó=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäãI=pïÉÇÉåI=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~ÄáäáíóK=fí= áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉI=íÜÉ=içåÇçå=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉI=íÜÉ=fmbI= ljI=bauI=bìêçåÉñí=iáÑÑÉI=bìêçåÉñí=m~êáëI=bìêÉñI=`jbI=~åÇ=`_lq=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉëK=pb_=áë= ~ìíÜçêáòÉÇ=~åÇ=êÉÖìä~íÉÇ=Äó=cáå~åëáåëéÉâíáçåÉå=áå=pïÉÇÉåI=Äó=íÜÉ=cáå~åÅá~ä= pÉêîáÅÉë=^ìíÜçêáíó=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÅçåÇìÅí=çÑ=ÇÉëáÖå~íÉÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÄìëáåÉëë=áå=íÜÉ=rhI=~åÇ= Äó=êÉäÉî~åí=êÉÖìä~íçêë=áå=~ää=çíÜÉê=àìêáëÇáÅíáçåë=ïÜÉêÉ=pb_=çéÉê~íÉë=áíë=ÄìëáåÉëëK= = = pb_=jÉêÅÜ~åí=_~åâáåÖK=^ää=êáÖÜíë=êÉëÉêîÉÇK= =

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