Seb Country Analysis 2008 Tunisia

Tunisia SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

September 25, 2008

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : [email protected]

Country Risk Analysis

Percent

oçÄìëí=dam=ÖêçïíÜK=oÉ~ä=dam=ÖêçïíÜ=~ÅÅÉäÉê~íÉÇ=íç=SKP=B=áå=OMMT=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ= Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ=éÉêÑçêã~åÅÉ=áå=ãçëí=ëÉÅíçêëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~=êÉÅçîÉêó=áå=íÜÉ=íÉñíáäÉ=ëÉÅíçê=~åÇ= ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉêîáÅÉë=ëÉÅíçêë=ëéìêêÉÇ=Äó=ëíêçåÖ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=~åÇ=bìêçéÉ~å= ÇÉã~åÇK=mêìÇÉåí=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= Gross Domestic Product (YoY) éçäáÅáÉë=ÜÉäéÉÇ=âÉÉé=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí= 6.5 6.0 ~êçìåÇ=P=B=çÑ=dam=~åÇ=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ= 5.5 ~í=PKN=B=áå=OMMTK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=íÜÉ=êáëÉ=áå= 5.0 ÖäçÄ~ä=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë=Ü~ë=êÉëìäíÉÇ= 4.5 4.0 áå=~=éáÅâJìé=çÑ=áåÑä~íáçå=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=íç= 3.5 ~êçìåÇ=R=B=~ë=ïÉää=~ë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= 3.0 ëéÉåÇáåÖ=çå=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=ëìÄëáÇáÉë= 2.5 2.0 éìííáåÖ=éêÉëëìêÉ=çå=éìÄäáÅ=Ñáå~åÅÉëK= 1.5 02 03 04 05 06 07 bÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ëäçï=íç= ~êçìåÇ=R=B=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ÇìÉ=íç=~=ëÜ~êé= ëäçïÇçïå=áå=íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=råáçåI=áíë=ã~áå=Éñéçêí=ã~êâÉí=~åÇ=~=âÉó=ëçìêÅÉ=çÑ= íçìêáëíë=~åÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåíëK= = päáÖÜí=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíK==aÉëéáíÉ=êçÄìëí=Éñéçêí=ÖêçïíÜ=~åÇ= é~êíá~ä=ÅçîÉê~ÖÉ=çÑ=çáä=Åçåëìãéíáçå=Äó=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=éêçÇìÅíáçåI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí= ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=ëäáÖÜíäó=íç=OKS=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMTK=qÜáë=ï~ë=ã~áåäó=ÇìÉ=íç=êáëáåÖ= ÖäçÄ~ä=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉë=~åÇ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=áãéçêíë=çÑ=Å~éáí~ä=ÖççÇë=êÉëìäíáåÖ=áå=~= ëìÄëí~åíá~ä=íê~ÇÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ï~ë=ÅçãÑçêí~Ääó=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=Äó= caf=áåÑäçïë=ÉîÉå=~ääçïáåÖ=~å=~ÅÅìãìä~íáçå=çÑ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=êÉëÉêîÉë=íç=íÜÉ= Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=Q=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=áãéçêíëK=bñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=íç=damJê~íáç=Ü~ë=ÇÉÅäáåÉÇ=Äìí= êÉã~áåë=êÉä~íáîÉäó=ÜáÖÜ=~í=RR=BK=eçïÉîÉêI=ãçëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄí=áë=äçåÖJíÉêã=EUç=BF=~åÇ= çïÉÇ=íç=ãìäíáä~íÉê~ä=~åÇ=Äáä~íÉê~ä=ÅêÉÇáíçêë=ETM=BFK= = cìêíÜÉê=áåíÉÖê~íáçå=áåíç=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇ=ÉÅçåçãóK=qÜÉ=Öê~Çì~ä=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=äáÄÉê~äáò~íáçå= áåáíá~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=NVVR=br=^ëëçÅá~íáçå=^ÖêÉÉãÉåíë=Ebr^^F=ÅçåíáåìÉëK=qÜ~í=áåÅäìÇÉë= äáÄÉê~äáëáåÖ=çÑ=íê~ÇÉI=áãéêçîáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅçåîÉêíáÄáäáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=Çáå~ê=~åÇ=ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåáåÖ=íÜÉ= Ä~åâáåÖ=ëóëíÉãK=qÜÉ=íÉñíáäÉ=ëÉÅíçê=çéÉåÉÇ=ìé=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=ÅçãéÉíáíáçå=áå=OMMR=ïÜÉå=íÜÉ= jìäíáÑáÄêÉ=^ÖêÉÉãÉåí=ï~ë=ÉåÇÉÇ=~åÇ=ÑêÉÉ=íê~ÇÉ=áå=ã~åìÑ~ÅíìêÉë=EåçåJ~ÖêáÅìäíìê~äF= ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=br=ÄÉÅ~ãÉ=~=êÉ~äáíó=~í=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=OMMUK=qÜÉ=^Ö~Çáê=^ÖêÉÉãÉåí=áå= ÑçêÅÉ=ëáåÅÉ=j~êÅÜ=OMMT=~áãë=~í=ÑçëíÉêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ëíáää=äçï=áåíê~JêÉÖáçå~ä=íê~ÇÉ=ÄÉíïÉÉå= qìåáëá~I=jçêçÅÅçI=bÖóéí=~åÇ=gçêÇ~åK=qÜÉ=ÄìëáåÉëë=Åäáã~íÉ=Ü~ë=áãéêçîÉÇ=~ë=êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ= Äó=íÜÉ=àìãé=çå=íÜÉ=tçêäÇ=_~åâD=b~ëÉ=çÑ=açáåÖ=_ìëáåÉëë=áåÇÉñ=OMMV=íç=éä~ÅÉ=TP=çìí=çÑ= NUN=Ñêçã=éä~ÅÉ=UU=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê=áåÇáÅ~íáåÖ=íÜ~í=qìåáëá~=ïáää=êÉã~áå=~å=~ííê~ÅíáîÉ=caf= ÇÉëíáå~íáçå=Ñçê=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó=bìêçéÉ~å=ÅçìåíêáÉëK= Source: Reuters EcoWin

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

= réÅçãáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåëK=mêÉëáÇÉåí=wáåÉ=bä=^ÄáÇáåÉ=_Éå=^äáI=áå=çÑÑáÅÉ=ëáåÅÉ=NVUTI= ~ååçìåÅÉÇ=êÉÅÉåíäó=íÜ~í=ÜÉ=ïáää=ëÉÉâ=~=ÑáÑíÜ=íÉêã=áå=íÜÉ=OMMV=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=ÉäÉÅíáçåK= _Éå=^äá=ïçå=VQKQB=çÑ=íÜÉ=îçíÉ=áå=OMMQ=~åÇ=ÜÉ=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=âÉÉé=Üáë=Ççãáå~åí=éçëáíáçå= áå=qìåáëá~Dë=ÜÉ~îáäó=ÅçåíêçääÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëóëíÉã=áå=íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåëK=eçïÉîÉêI= íÜÉêÉ=áë=åç=åçãáå~íÉÇ=ëìÅÅÉëëçê=íç=_Éå=^äá=E~ÖÉÇ=TNF=~åÇ=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=qìåáëá~=Ü~ë= çåäó=ìåÇÉêÖçåÉ=çåÉ=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=çÑ=äÉ~ÇÉêëÜáé=ëáåÅÉ=áåÇÉéÉåÇÉåÅÉ=ëáåÅÉ=NVRS=ê~áëÉë=ëçãÉ= éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~Äáäáíó=ÅçåÅÉêå=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ÑìíìêÉK=jçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=~ëëìãÉ=íÜÉ=ëÉÅìêáíó=ëáíì~íáçå= áë=ìåÇÉê=Åçåíêçä=ÇÉëéáíÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=fëä~ãáÅ=ãáäáí~åí=~Åíáîáíó=~Åêçëë=kçêíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~K= qìåáëá~=ÅççéÉê~íÉë=ÅäçëÉäó=ïáíÜ=cê~åÅÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ÑáÖÜí=~Ö~áåëí=fëä~ãáëí=ÉñíêÉãáëã=~ë= ÅçåÑáêãÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=cêÉåÅÜ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=p~êâçòóDë=êÉÅÉåí=îáëáí=íç=qìåáëá~K=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=~= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íÉÇ=ëÉÅìêáíó=ëáíì~íáçå=ïçìäÇ=Ü~îÉ=ÅäÉ~ê=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅíë=çå=íçìêáëã=É~êåáåÖë= ~åÇ=caf=áåÑäçïë=~ë=áåÇáÅ~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=íÉêêçê=áåÅáÇÉåí=áå=aàÉêÄ~=áå=OMMOK= = J G=J= = qìåáëá~=Ü~ë=êÉÅçêÇÉÇ=êçÄìëí=Äêç~ÇJÄ~ëÉÇ=ÖêçïíÜ=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êë=~îçáÇáåÖ=ä~êÖÉ= ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉëK=qÜáë=Ü~ë=ÜÉäéÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ÅçéÉ=êÉä~íáîÉäó=ïÉää=ïáíÜ= ÉñíÉêå~ä=ëÜçÅâë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=íÜÉ=íÉêãáå~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=jìäíáÑáÄêÉ=~ÖêÉÉãÉåí=áå=OMMR=~åÇ=íÜÉ= êÉÅÉåí=êáëÉ=áå=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉëK=kÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëëI=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=Ü~ë=êÉÅÉåíäó= éáÅâÉÇ=ìé=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=ëçãÉïÜ~í=ÇìÉ=íç=~=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=çÑ= íÉêãë=çÑ=íê~ÇÉK=qÜÉ=çîÉê~ää=éçäáíáÅ~ä=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíó=ëáíì~íáçå=êÉã~áåë=ëí~ÄäÉ=ÉîÉå=áÑ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=~Åíáîáíó=Äó=fëä~ãáÅ=ãáäáí~åíë=~Åêçëë=kçêíÜ=^ÑêáÅ~=éçáåíë=íç=ÜáÖÜÉê= ìåÅÉêí~áåíóK=qÜÉ=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=êÉJÉäÉÅíáçå=çÑ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=_Éå=^äá=áå=åÉñí=óÉ~êÛë=ÉäÉÅíáçåë= ëÜçìäÇ=ÄçÇÉ=ïÉää=Ñçê=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~Äáäáíó=áå=íÜÉ=ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=ÉîÉå=áÑ= ìåÅÉêí~áåíó=áë=äáâÉäó=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ=~ÖÉáåÖ=mêÉëáÇÉåí=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ä~Åâ=çÑ=~å= ~ééçáåíÉÇ=ëìÅÅÉëëçêK== = =

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Macro balance

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OMMU

Average EM Morocco

Information

Tunisia

dê~éÜW=qìåáëá~=ëÅçêÉë=~ÄçîÉ=bj=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çå= dê~éÜW=päçî~â=oÉéDë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ=áë=ëíêçåÖÉê=çå=äçåÖ= íÉêã=Ñ~Åíçêë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉI=~ÄëÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ÉîÉåí=êáëâ= êÉëáäáÉåÅÉ=Äìí=ÄÉäçï=çå=äáèìáÇáíó=~åÇ=ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= ~åÇ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=~ää=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ= Ä~ä~åÅÉK ã~êâÉí=ÅçìåíêáÉëI=Äìí=ëçãÉïÜ~í=ïÉ~âÉê=çå=äáèìáÇáíó= ~åÇ=ã~Åêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉK

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2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

Key data: 2003 2004 2005 2006 GDP (mn US$) 25 28 29 31 GDP/capita (US$) 2528 2828 2838 3022 GDP (change) 5.7% 6.0% 4.2% 5.2% Investments/GDP 22.0% 21.0% 20.9% 21.5% Budget balance/GDP -3.2% -2.3% -5.2% -1.4% Govt debt/GDP 60.4% 59.4% 55.5% 51.3% CPI inflation (%) 2.7% 3.6% 2.1% 4.5% Money demand (%) 4% 8% 9% 7% Stock prices (%change) -0.5% 14.6% 7.7% 14.2% Interest rates 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 5.1% Exch. Rate ($) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 Trade/GDP (%) 91% 97% 101% 103% Oil price (Brent) 38 54 65 73 Billions US $ Export of goods 11 13 14 16 Imports of goods 12 14 15 16 Other: 0 0 0 0 Current account -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.6 as % of GDP -2.9% -1.9% -1.0% -2.0% FDI 0.5 0.6 0.7 3.2 Loan repayments 190 134 144 159 Net other capital flows -189 -133 -142 -160 Balance of payments 1.0 0.5 2.3 1.1 Reserves 2.9 3.9 4.4 6.7 Total debt 18.4 20.0 17.7 18.5 o/w short term debt 3.6 3.8 3.1 3.3 Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates Rating history

2007 35 3411 6.3% 21.1% -2.8% 51.3% 3.1% 9% 9.8% 5.2% 1.3 110% 117

2008 42 4026 5.5% 21.0% -3.3% 51.0% 5.5% 6%

2009 42 3999 5.2% 20.9% -2.9% 49.8% 3.8% 5%

2010 44 4124 5.1% 20.8% -2.7% 48.6% 3.1% 5%

5.3% 1.2 113% 113

5.6% 1.3 123% 101

5.6% 1.4 126% 89

19 20 0 -0.9 -2.6% 1.5 174 -174 0.9 7.8 19.2 3.5

23 24 0 -1.4 -3.3% 1.8 177 -176 0.8 8.7 20.3 3.7

25 27 0 -1.3 -3.1% 1.8 179 -179 0.9 9.5 21.4 3.9

27 28 0 -1.0 -2.3% 1.9 181 -181 0.9 10.4 22.2 4.0

Fitch (eoy) BBBBBB BBB BBB BBB Moody's (eoy) Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 Baa2 S&P (eoy) BBB BBB BBB BBB BBB Type of government: Constitutional presidential republic Next elections Presidential and parlimentary elections in October 2009 Other: Latest PC deal None Latest IMF arrangements: Extended Fund Facility (EFF) 1988-1992 T u n is S t o c k E x c h a n g e In d e x ( U S D o lla r s )

E x c h a n g e ra te s

150

1 .9 1 .8

140

E U R /T N D

1 .7

Index

130

1 .6 1 .5

120

1 .4

U S D /T N D

110 1 .3

100

1 .2 1 .1

90 04

05

06

07

02

08

03

04

05

06

07

08 S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

U n e m p lo y m e n t 1 5 .5 0 1 5 .2 5

Percent

1 5 .0 0 1 4 .7 5 1 4 .5 0 1 4 .2 5 1 4 .0 0 1 3 .7 5 02

03

04

05

06

07 S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

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SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis September, 2008

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