Seb Country Analysis 2008 Korea

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Republic of Korea SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

May 25, 2008

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 98 11. E-mail: [email protected]

Activity has begun to slow as gathering clouds over the world economy are hitting domestic sentiment of this export oriented economy. Confusing policy signals form a new government have not helped ease investor concerns as seen in an increasingly volatile exchange rate.

Country Risk Analysis OMMT=ï~ë=ëíáää=~=ÖççÇ=óÉ~êK==i~ëí=óÉ~êI=çîÉê~ää=ÖêçïíÜ=êÉã~áåÉÇ=~=ëíÉ~Çó=RB= ÇêáîÉå=Äó=ëçäáÇ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇ=~åÇ=Äìçó~åí=ÉñéçêíëK==^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=íÜÉ= ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=êÉã~áåÉÇ=áå=~=ëã~ää=ëìêéäìë=~åÇ=ÅçãÄáåÉÇ= ïáíÜ=ëíÉ~Çó=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçïë=íç=ÅêÉ~íÉ=~=Ñ~îçê~ÄäÉ=ÉåîáêçåãÉåí=Ñçê=íÜÉ= ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK==cçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=áå=íÜÉ=Ü~åÇë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ÉåÇÉÇ=íÜÉ= óÉ~ê=~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=AOSM=ÄáääK== Current account balance $bill. JJ=Éèìáî~äÉåí=íç=T=ãçåíÜë=çÑ= 250 áãéçêíë=~åÇ=ÉñÅÉÉÇáåÖ= 200 ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=Äó=~=ïáÇÉ= ã~êÖáåK==qÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= 150 ÄìÇÖÉí=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=éçëí=~= 100 ëã~ää=ëìêéäìëI=ÜÉäéáåÖ= 50 êÉÇìÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄíLdamJê~íáç= 0 íç=ÄÉäçï=ORBK==^ää=íÜáë=ï~ë= áå=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=ëìÅÅÉëëÑìä= -50 êÉÅçîÉêó=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=íÉå= -100 óÉ~êë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=^ëá~å=ÅêáëáëI= -150 ïÜáÅÜ=Ü~Ç=Üáí=íÜÉ=hçêÉ~å= jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr 06 07 08 ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~êÇ=áå=NVVTLVUK= = OMMU=ÅçìäÇ=ã~êâ=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=~=åÉï=íêÉåÇK==få=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=OMMU= dam=ï~ë=ìé=RITB=Åçãé~êÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉîáçìë=óÉ~êI=Äìí=çå=~= èì~êíÉêäó=Ä~ëáë=dam=ëäçïÉÇ=íç=çåäó=MITB=ÖêçïíÜ=Åçãé~êÉÇ=ïáíÜ=OMMT=nQI=áíë= ãçëí=ãçÇÉëí=êÉëìäí=ëáåÅÉ=É~êäó=OMMQK==lÄëÉêîÉêë=êÉéçêí=çÑ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖ= ÜÉ~ÇïáåÇë=íç=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãóK==j~åìÑ~ÅíìêáåÖ=êÉã~áåÉÇ=~äãçëí=Ñä~í=çå=íÜÉ= éêÉîáçìë=èì~êíÉê=~ë=Ñáêãë=êÉéçêíÉÇäó=ÄÉÅ~ãÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=ï~êó=çÑ=íÜÉ= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáåÖ=çìíäççâ=Ñçê=ã~áå=Éñéçêí=ã~êâÉíë=~åÇ=ëÅ~äÉÇ=Ççïå=íÜÉáê= áåîÉëíãÉåí=éä~åëK==pÉêîáÅÉë=ÖêçïíÜ=ï~ë=~äëç=Üáí=áå=êÉëéçåëÉ=íç=ëçÑíÉåáåÖ= ÅçåëìãÉê=ÇÉã~åÇ=ïÜáÅÜ=êçëÉ=çåäó=MISB=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=OMMUK==qçí~ä== Éñéçêíë=î~äìÉ=~ééÉ~êë=íç=Ü~îÉ=ÜÉäÇ=ìé=êÉ~ëçå~Ääó=ïÉääI=Äìí=êÉ~ä=Éñéçêíë=Eáå= Åçåëí~åí=éêáÅÉëF=~Åíì~ääó=ÉÇÖÉÇ=ÇçïåK==qÜ~í=Å~ãÉ=çå=íÜÉ=ÜÉÉäë=çÑ= ÉñÅÉéíáçå~ääó=ëíêçåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=íÜÉ=ÑçìêíÜ=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êI=íÜìë= ã~áåí~áåáåÖ=~=äÉîÉä=ëçãÉ=NOB=ÜáÖÜÉê=íÜ~å=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=OMMTK==lå=~= Ç~êâÉê=åçíÉI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ëÜ~êéäó=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=íÉêãë=çÑ=íê~ÇÉ=E~îÉê~ÖÉ=Éñéçêí= éêáÅÉë=çîÉê=áãéçêí=éêáÅÉëF=ÇìÉ=íç=éêáÅÉë=çÑ=áãéçêíÉÇ=çáä=~åÇ=ÑççÇ=Ü~îÉ=ëç=Ñ~ê= South Korea, Current Account, Balance, Total, USD

Source: Reuters EcoWin

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 25, 2008

íÜáë=óÉ~ê=ëÉåí=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=áåíç=~=ê~éáÇäó=ïáÇÉåáåÖ= ÇÉÑáÅáí=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅçåëìãÉê=éêáÅÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=çå=íÜÉ=ï~ó=ìéK= = pçìêáåÖ=Åäáã~íÉ=ÅçãÄáåÉë=ïáíÜ=ÅçåÑìëáåÖ=éçäáÅó=ëáÖå~äëK==kçåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= ~ÄçîÉ=ïçìäÇ=åçêã~ääó=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=íç=~åó=ã~àçê=ÅçåÅÉêå=Ñçê=~=Åçìåíêó=ïáíÜ= hçêÉ~Ûë=ëçäáÇ=ÉÅçåçãó=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ã~Åêç=Ä~ä~åÅÉë=Äìí=Ñçê=íÜÉ=éçäáíáÅ~ä= ïáåÇë=åçï=ÅçãáåÖ=Ñêçã=~=åÉï=~Çãáåáëíê~íáçå=áå=íÜÉ=ÄäìÉ=ÜçìëÉK==qÜÉ=åÉï= éêÉëáÇÉåíI=jêK=iÉÉ=jìóåÖJÄ~âI=çÑ=íÜÉ=êáÖÜíJçÑJÅÉåíÉê=k~íáçå~ä=dê~åÇ=m~êíóI= ïÜáÅÜ=ïçå=~=ä~åÇJëäáÇÉ=îáÅíçêó=áå=ä~ëí=aÉÅÉãÄÉêI=Ü~ë=ã~ÇÉ=ÄìääáëÜ=éêçãáëÉë= çÑ=ëíÉééÉÇ=ìé=ÖêçïíÜK==tÜáäÉ=ãìÅÜ=çÑ=íÜáë=ã~ó=ÄÉ=ëÜêìÖÖÉÇ=çÑÑ=~ë=éçëíìêáåÖ= Ñêçã=~=åÉï=éêÉëáÇÉåí=âåçïáåÖ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=`çåëíáíìíáçå=ÖáîÉë=Üáã=çåäó=çåÉ=íÉêã= áå=çÑÑáÅÉ=íç=éìí=Üáë=ã~êâ=çå=ÜáëíçêóI=éä~åë=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=íç=ÄìáäÇ=~=ï~íÉêJï~ó= íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ãçìåí~áåçìë=hçêÉ~å=éÉåáåëìä~=ÖáîÉë=íÜÉ=áãéêÉëëáçå=çÑ= ìåêÉ~äáëã=Ü~îáåÖ=í~âÉå=íÜÉ=ÇêáîÉêÛ=ëÉ~í=áå=éçäáíáÅ~ä=ÅáêÅäÉëK==tÜáäÉ=ëìÅÜ=~åÇ= çíÜÉê=Öê~åÇáçëÉ=ëÅÜÉãÉë=~êÉ=ëíáää=çå=íÜÉ=Çê~ïáåÖ=Äç~êÇI=ãçêÉ=áããÉÇá~íÉ= ÅçåÅÉêå=áë=íÜÉ=ÖêçïáåÖ=ëìëéáÅáçå= Exchange rate íÜ~í=íÜÉ=åÉï=~Çãáåáëíê~íáçå=Ü~ë= Won/US$ ÄÉÖìå=íç=äÉ~å=ÜÉ~îáäó=çå=íÜÉ= 1075 ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=íç=ëìééçêí=çîÉê~ää= 1050 ÇÉã~åÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=ÇÉëéáíÉ= 1025 êáëáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçå=ÑÉ~êëK==qÜìëI=~ë= íÜÉ=ïçå=ÄÉÖ~å=íç=ïÉ~âÉå=ê~éáÇäó= 1000 Ñçê=çíÜÉê=êÉ~ëçåë=áå=ä~íÉ= 975 cÉÄêì~êóI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=ë~í= áÇäÉ=Ñçê=íÜêÉÉ=ïÉÉâë=ï~íÅÜáåÖ=íÜÉ= 950 ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=áå=~äãçëí=ÑêÉÉ=Ñ~ää= 925 ~Ö~áåëí=~=ëçÑíÉåáåÖ=Ççää~ê=ÄÉÑçêÉ= áí=Ñáå~ääó=áåíÉêîÉåÉÇ=áå=ëìééçêí=çÑ= 900jan apr jul okt jan apr jul okt jan apr 06 07 08 íÜÉ=ïçåK N ==qÜ~í=ëÉÉãÉÇ=íç=ëã~Åâ= çÑ=áåíÉêÑÉêÉåÅÉ=Ñêçã=~= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ïÜáÅÜ=ÅçìäÇ=ëÉÉ=~å=áåíÉêÉëí=áå=~=ïÉ~âÉê=ïçå=íç=ÜÉäé=íÜÉ=ÉñéçêíëK== ^ë=ëìÅÜ=áí=ÇìãÄÑçìåÇÉÇ=ãçëí=ã~êâÉí=é~êíáÅáé~åíë=ïÜç=Ü~Ç=ÅçãÉ=íç=ÄÉäáÉîÉ= áå=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâÛë=ÇÉ=Ñ~ÅíçI=áÑ=åçí=ÇÉ=àìêÉ=áåÇÉéÉåÇÉåÅÉK= JJ=oÉÅÉåíäóI=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=îçä~íáäáíó=êÉçÅÅìêêÉÇ=Äìí=íÜáë=íáãÉ=éêçãéíáåÖ=~= íáãÉäáÉê=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=áåíÉêîÉåíáçåK== = qÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~äëç=~ååçìåÅáåÖ=ÑìêíÜÉê=êÉÑçêãëK=lå=~=ãçêÉ=éçëáíáîÉ=åçíÉI= Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=íÜÉ=åÉï=éêÉëáÇÉåí=Ü~ë=~ååçìåÅÉÇ=êÉÑçêãë=ëìÅÜ=~ë=ÅêÉ~íáåÖ=~= Åçêéçê~íÉJÑêáÉåÇäó=ÉåîáêçåãÉåíI=~ííê~ÅíáåÖ=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄìëáåÉëë=Äó=êÉÇìÅáåÖ= êÉÖìä~íáçåë=~åÇ=íÜÉ=Åçêéçê~íÉ=í~ñ=ê~íÉëI=éêçãçíáåÖ=~å=båÖäáëÜJÑêáÉåÇäó= ÉåîáêçåãÉåí=~åÇ=ê~áëáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÑäÉñáÄáäáíó=áå=íÜÉ=ä~Äçê=ã~êâÉíK==pâÉéíáÅë=éçáåí= çìíI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=íÜ~í=ëíêçåÖ=îÉëíÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëíë=ÅçìäÇ=íÜï~êí=ëìÅÜ=êÉÑçêã=ÉÑÑçêíë= ~åÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=éêÉëáÇÉåí=~í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=Ç~ó=ã~ó=êÉëçêí=íç=ë~ÑÉê=éçäáÅáÉë=Ñçê=Üáë= éçäáíáÅ~ä=ëí~åÇáåÖ=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=ÑáëÅ~ä=éìãéJéêáãáåÖK=== = qÜÉ=éÉêÉååá~ä=èìÉëíáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=ÄêçíÜÉê=ìé=åçêíÜK==lå=íÜÉ=ã~áå= ÑçêÉáÖå=éçäáíáÅ~ä=áëëìÉ=Ó=kçêíÜ=hçêÉ~I=ëí~íìë=èìç=áë=ìåÅÜ~åÖÉÇK==fÑ=~åóíÜáåÖ=áë= åÉïI=áí=áë=çåäó=íÜÉ=áåÅêÉ~ëáåÖäó=ïáÇÉê=~ÅÅÉéí~åÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=îÉêó=ÇáÑÑáÅìäí=ëçÅá~ä= ~åÇ=Üìã~åáí~êá~å=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=kçêíÜ=hçêÉ~K==_ìí=ÑÉï=áå=íÜÉ=ëçìíÜ=ëÉÉã=

So urce: Re uters EcoWi n

1

At this time there was a coincidence of weaker net export revenues as the current account balance turned into a deficit of around 2% of GDP and a sudden drop in capital inflows to the banks, as the latter suddenly faced a sharp drop in domestic ship-builders’ future dollar sales to match the banks’ external borrowing. As a result, the balance of payments turned negative. 2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 25, 2008

ïáääáåÖ=íç=ÉåÖ~ÖÉ=áå=~=ÇáëÅìëëáçå=çå=Üçï=íç=Ü~åÇäÉ=~=ëáíì~íáçå=ïÜÉêÉ=ãáääáçåë= çÑ=ìåÇÉêÑÉÇ=ÄêÉíÜêÉåë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=åçêíÜ=ÅçìäÇ=Åêçëë=íÜÉ=ÄçêÇÉê=ÑçääçïáåÖ=~= éçëëáÄäÉ=Åçää~éëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=móçåÖó~åÖ=êÉÖáãÉ=áå=~=éÉêÜ~éë=åçí=íçç=Çáëí~åí= ÑìíìêÉK==^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=pí~åÇ~êÇ=~åÇ=mççêëI=êÉìåáÑáÅ~íáçå=Åçëíë=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ= ~åóíÜáåÖ=Ñêçã=QMBJPMMB=çÑ=dam=ëéêÉ~Ç=çîÉê=ëÉîÉê~ä=óÉ~êëK=pçãÉ=éÉçéäÉ= áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~í=ÜáÖÜÉëí=çÑÑáÅá~ä=äÉîÉäë=ëÉÉã=íç=ÄÉ=áå=~=ëí~íÉ=çÑ=ÇÉåá~äI=Åä~áãáåÖ=íÜáë= áë=~å=ìåíÜáåâ~ÄäÉ=Çáë~ëíÉê=çÑ=~=ã~ÖåáíìÇÉ=pçìíÜ=hçêÉ~=Å~ååçí=éçëëáÄäÉ=ÄÉ~ê= áíëÉäÑK==mêáî~íÉäóI=çíÜÉê=éÉçéäÉ=ëìÖÖÉëí=ìåÅçåîÉåíáçå~ä=ëçäìíáçåëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ= íÜ~í=`Üáå~=í~âÉë=çîÉê=kçêíÜ=hçêÉ~K==hÉÉéáåÖ=áå=ãáåÇ=íÜÉ=éêçäçåÖÉÇ=~åÇ= ï~íÉêíáÖÜí=ëÉé~ê~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=íïç=ÅçìåíêáÉë=íÜÉ=Éãçíáçå~ä=~ÑÑáåáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=pçìíÜ= hçêÉ~åë=íç=íÜÉáê=ÑçêãÉê=åçêíÜÉêå=Åçãé~íêáçíë=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=ïÉ~âÉåÉÇ=~ë=ãìÅÜ= íáãÉ=Ü~ë=é~ëëÉÇK==JJ=jçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêë=~ééÉ~ê=íç=~ÖêÉÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=~ÑíÉêã~íÜ=çÑ=~= êÉÖáãÉ=Åçää~éëÉ=áå=íÜÉ=åçêíÜ=áë=ÜáÖÜäó=ìåéêÉÇáÅí~ÄäÉK=_ÉÅ~ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜ~í=~åÇ=íÜÉ= éçíÉåíá~ääó=Éåçêãçìë=Åçëíë=íç=pçìíÜ=hçêÉ~=Ó=~åÇ=íç=~=äÉëëÉê=ÉñíÉåí=íç= åÉáÖÜÄçìêáåÖ=`Üáå~I=íÜÉêÉ=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=~å=áåÅÉåíáîÉ=íç=ÇÉä~ó=íÜáë=Ç~ó=çÑ= êÉÅâçåáåÖK== JGJ= hçêÉ~=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=éÉêÑçêã=ïÉää=áå=OMMTI=Äìí=Ü~ë=ëáåÅÉ=É~êäó=OMMU=ëÜçïå=ëáÖåë=çÑ= ÅÜ~åÖáåÖ=íêÉåÇë=ÇìÉ=íç=êáëáåÖ=ÅçåÅÉêåë=çîÉê=Üçï=íÜÉ=Éñéçêí=çêáÉåíÉÇ=ÉÅçåçãó=ïáää= ïÉ~íÜÉê=íÜÉ=ïçêëÉåáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÉÅçåçãóK==qÜ~í=~ÇÇë=íç=ÅçåÅÉêåë=~ãçåÖ= áåîÉëíçêë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=ã~êâÉí=é~êíáÅáé~åíë=çîÉê=Üçï=~=åÉï=éêÉëáÇÉåí=~åÇ=Üáë= ~Çãáåáëíê~íáçå=ïáää=Ü~åÇäÉ=íÜÉ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉëK==cÉ~êë=~êÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉó=ã~ó=éìêëìÉ=íçç= ~ãÄáíáçìë=Öç~äë=~åÇ=ä~ìåÅÜ=ìåêÉ~äáëíáÅ=éêçàÉÅíë=ïÜáäÉ=çîÉêJêìäáåÖ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ= çÄàÉÅíáçåë=íç=ãçåÉí~êó=É~ëáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñ~ÅÉ=çÑ=êáëáåÖ=áåÑä~íáçå=éêÉëëìêÉK=tÜáäÉ=íÜÉëÉ=~êÉ= ÅçåÅÉêåë=íÜ~í=Ñêçã=~Ñ~ê=ã~ó=äççâ=éêÉã~íìêÉ=Ñçê=~=Åçìåíêó=~ë=ëçäáÇ=~ë=pçìíÜ=hçêÉ~= êÉÅÉåí=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉ=îçä~íáäáíó=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÅçåÑáêã=íÜÉ=çäÇ=~Ç~ÖÉ=íÜ~í=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áë=É~ëáÉê= äçëí=íÜ~å=Ö~áåÉÇK==cçê=~=Åçìåíêó=áå=ëìÅÜ=~=ëíêçåÖ=êáëâ=Åä~ëë=~ë=hçêÉ~I=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=áë=~= éêÉÅáçìë=ÅçããçÇáíó=íÜ~í=ã~ó=Åçëí=ÇÉ~êäó=íç=äççëÉK==^í=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=íáãÉ=íÜÉ=Åçããìåáëí= êÉÖáãÉ=çÑ=kçêíÜ=hçêÉ~=êÉã~áåë=~=a~ãçÅäÉë=ëïçêÇ=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ëçìíÜK==^äíÜçìÖÜ=~=ïÉääJ âåçïå=~åÇ=äçåÖJëí~åÇáåÖ=íÜêÉ~íI=íÜÉ=Ç~ó=çÑ=êÉÅâçåáåÖ=ïáää=áåÉîáí~Ääó=ÄÉ=ÅçãáåÖ= ÅäçëÉêK= == hÉó=ê~íáçë

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3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 25, 2008

hÉó=Ç~í~W OMMO OMMP dam=EÄáääK=rpAF RQU SMU damLÅ~éáí~=ErpAF NN=SMN NO=UNP dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF TIMB PINB fåîÉëíãÉåíëLdam PMB PMB _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam PB NB dçîí=ÇÉÄíLdam NTB NTB `mf=áåÑä~íáçå=EBF OIUB PIRB jçåÉó=ÇÉã~åÇ=EBF UITB PIVB píçÅâ=éêáÅÉë=EBÅÜ~åÖÉF POIOB JNMIOB fåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë QIUB QIPB bñÅÜK=o~íÉ=EAF NORO NNVO qê~ÇÉLdam=EBF TOB TPB láä=éêáÅÉ=E_êÉåíF AOR AOV _áääáçåë=rp=A bñéçêí=çÑ=ÖççÇë OMP OPN fãéçêíë=çÑ=ÖççÇë NVM ONP líÜÉêW JU JS `ìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí RIQ NNIV =====~ë=B=çÑ=dam NIMB OIMB caf OIQ PIR iç~å=êÉé~óãÉåíë=EjrpaF JOP JOV kÉí=çíÜÉê=Å~éáí~ä=Ñäçïë=Ej PN PT _~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíë NS OQ oÉëÉêîÉë NPN NRN qçí~ä=ÇÉÄí NNV NPT ===çLï=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí QQ RP o~íáåÖ=Üáëíçêó cáíÅÜ=EÉçóF ___H ___H jççÇóDë=EÉçóF _~~O ^P pCm=EÉçóF ___ ^J qóéÉ=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíW kÉñí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë mêÉëáÇÉåíá~äW==OMNO líÜÉêW i~íÉëí=m`=ÇÉ~ä kçåÉ i~íÉëí=fjc=~êê~åÖÉãÉåíë pí~åÇJÄó=NVVT S to c k s :

OMMQ SUN NQ=OVO QITB OVB NB ONB PISB NIOB OOISB PIUB NNQS UMB APU

OMMR TVN NS=ROQ QIOB OVB NB OTB OITB QINB OUIRB PISB NMOQ TNB ARQ

OMMS UUV NU=QVQ RINB OUB MB OUB OIOB SIRB OSIPB QIRB VRR SUB ASR

OMMT VTM OM=NNU RIMB OUB NB OTB OIRB UITB OSITB RIOB VOV TMB ATP

OMMU VVR OM=RSP QITB OUB MB OSB PITB VIMB

OMMV NMTQ OO=NPR QITB OUB MB ORB PIOB TINB

RIPB VTP UOB ANNO

RINB VST URB ANMS

OVN ORT JS OUIO QINB VIO JPM PN PU NUU NQM RP

OVN OSU JV NRIM NIVB SIP JPN QM PN OOO NQM RQ

PNN OVR JNM RIQ MISB PIS JPN QO ON OQT NQM RR

PQR PPN JU SIM MISB NIS JPN RM OS OTP NQM RR

QNM QNN JR JSIP JMISB NIS JPN RO NS M NQM RS

QSN QQU JV PIQ MIPB NIS JPO QR NU M NQM RS

^ ^P ^J

^ ^P ^J

^H ^P ^

In t e r b a n k R a t e s , K O R IB O R , 3 M o n t h , K R W

K O S P I 1 0 0 In d e x

2000

6 ,0 0

1900

5 ,7 5

1800

5 ,5 0

1700

5 ,2 5 Percent

Index

^H ^P ^

1600 1500

5 ,0 0 4 ,7 5

1400 4 ,5 0

1300

4 ,2 5

1200 1100 ja n

apr

ju l 06

okt

ja n

apr

ju l 07

okt

ja n

4 ,0 0 ja n

apr 08

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

apr

ju l 06

okt

ja n

apr

ju l 07

okt

M 3 (b r o a d m o n e y )

C o n s u m e r P r ic e s , T o ta l In d e x

ja n

apr 08

S o u r c e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

12

3 ,5 0

11 Percent

Percent

a n n u a liz e d g r o w t h 4 ,0 0

3 ,0 0 2 ,5 0 2 ,0 0

10 9 8 7

1 ,5 0

6 ja n

m aj sep 06

ja n

m aj sep 07

ja n 08

ja n

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W in

m aj sep 06

ja n

m aj sep 07

ja n 08

S o u r c e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

4

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis May 25, 2008

Disclaimer Confidentiality Notice The information in this document is confidential and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any person. Important: This statement affects your rights The information in this document has been compiled by SEB Merchant Banking, an entity within Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) (“SEB”), for institutional investors only. It is not intended for, and must not be passed to, Retail Clients. If you are not a client of ours, you are not entitled to this report. This information is produced for the private information of recipients, and SEB Merchant Banking is not soliciting any action based upon it. Opinions contained in this report represent the bank’s present opinion only and are subject to change without notice. All information contained in this report has been compiled in good faith from sources believed to be reliable. However, no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made with respect to the completeness or accuracy of its contents and the information is not to be relied upon as authoritative. Recipients are urged to base their investment decisions upon such investigations as they deem necessary. This document is being provided for your information only, and no specific actions are being solicited as a result of it; to the extent permitted by law, no liability whatsoever is accepted for any direct or consequential loss arising from use of this document or its contents. Your attention is drawn to the fact that a member of, or an entity associated with, the bank or its affiliates, officers, directors, employees or shareholders of, such members may from time to time (a) have a long or short position in, or otherwise participate in the markets for, the currencies and securities of countries mentioned herein, (b) buy or sell, make a market (or provide liquidity) in, or participate in an issue of such securities or options, for which SEB may receive compensation SEB is a public company incorporated in Stockholm, Sweden, with limited liability. It is a member of the Stockholm Stock Exchange, the London Stock Exchange, the IPE, OM, EDX, Euronext Liffe, Euronext Paris, Eurex, CME, and CBOT exchanges. SEB is authorized and regulated by Finansinspektionen in Sweden, by the Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK, and by relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where SEB operates its business.

SEB Merchant Banking. All rights reserved.

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