Future Technology Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Business means Technology Ian Jones, NCC, Head of Research 2009 IBM Corporation
Agenda
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About NCC
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Change is the only constant…..
–Did you Know?
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Technology Trends: Enterprise 2.0 – the old guard vs the 2.0ers
Compromise 6/x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples…
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Enterprise 2.0: Examples
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Enterprise 2.0: Examples – www.twine.com
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Technology Trends - Cloud Computing
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Put simply…
Cloud Computing is… the externalisation of enterprise IT across the
internet to provide business
services from a commodity based infrastructure…. …. With and
payment by usage…
limited, if any, commitment from either side. 11 / x
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Its all about convergence - a brief history….
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Market predictions… software and IT Services
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Why?
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Why not?
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Recommendations – what now?
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Security vs. Accessibility…
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Ian Jones, NCC Head of Research Tel: 0161 242 2170 Email:
[email protected]
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Internet Security - Threat Landscape: Trends
―Attackers are increasingly targeting end users by compromising high-traffic, trusted websites. ―Attackers are moving their operations to regions with emerging Internet infrastructures and, in some instances, developing and maintaining their own service provisioning. ―Cross-functional industry cooperation in the security community is becoming imperative. ― source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009
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Internet Security T
Malicious code is installed source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009 IV • In 2008, an average of more than 245 million attempted malicious code attacks blocked worldwide each month. • Over 60% of malicious code signatures were created in 2008. • Over 90% of threats discovered in 2008 are threats to confidential information.
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Stolen Information is sold source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009 • Credit card information (32%) and Internet Security Threat Report XIVbank account credentials (19%) continue to be the most frequently advertised items.
• The price range of credit cards remained consistent in 2008, ranging from $0.06 to $30 per card number. • Compromised email accounts can provide access to other confidential information and additional resources.
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Phishing trends source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009
―In 2008, 55,389 detected phishing website hosts, – Increase of 66 percent over 2007, when 33,428 phishing hosts detected.
―In 2008, 43 percent of all phishing websites identified were located in the United States, – In 2007 69 percent of such sites were based there.
―One particular automated phishing toolkit identified was responsible for an average of 14% of all phishing attacks during 2008.
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SsSpam
source: Symantec Security Threats Report 2009 IV
• Over the past year, Symantec observed a 192 percent increase in spam detected across the Internet as a whole, from 119.6 billion messages in 2007 to 349.6 billion in 2008. • In 2008, bot networks were responsible for the distribution of approximately 90 percent of all spam email. • Russia, Turkey, and Brazil experienced significant increases in spam volume this year.
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In summary ―Technology has a pivotal role ―IT Security Policy – dust it off and update it… ―Use it… ―Make sure its owned at the highest possible level.. ―and used at all levels…
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Future Focus
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Future Focus Jay Bregman
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Focus of Future Technology Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Agenda Client Challenges and IBM Smarter Planet Focus Five Technologies that are changing Business 3. Mobile Payments and advanced RFID 4. Collaborative Technologies and Customer Interaction 5. The 3D Internet and Virtual Worlds 6. Cloud Computing Examples 7. Exploiting Data – Digital Surveillance Summary
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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For us to make sense of this new world, we must consider four critical challenges “Data is exploding and it’s “My infrastructure is inflexible “New business & process and costly” demands ” in silos”
“Our resources are limited”
I Need Insight
I need to respond quickly
I Need to Work Smart
I Need Efficiency
How can we take advantage of the wealth of information available in real time from a multitude of sources to make more intelligent choices?
How do I create an infrastructure that drives down cost, is intelligent and secure, and is just as dynamic as today’s business climate ?
How can I work smarter supported by flexible and dynamic processes modeled for the new way people live & work.
How do we align our goals & behaviors with our new responsibilities to so care for our planet and its people.
New Intelligence
Dynamic Infrastructure
Smart Work
Green & Beyond
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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2009 IBM Corporation
Four key initiatives
IBM’s smarter planet vision
New Intelligence
Dynamic Infrastructure Smart Work The world has become flatter and smaller. Now it must become smarter.
Green & Beyond
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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NFC (Near Field Communications)
Payments Access Marketing
2D barcode sensor Access to services Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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Contactless and mobile payment trends differ among regions POS
0.5M Convenience in commuting drives adoption in US
EzPass, Mobile Speed Pass early dominators Parking, Pharmacy and Retail stores following with contactless payments e.g. Chase Blink
2M Transit drives adoption in Europe
40M Japan and Korea leading the world in contactless
Effort and cost of EMV rollout slowing interest in contactless launched Visa Wave with 50K Growth driven by transit cards/mobile phones, accepted at 66 pilot systems in Paris, London, national Tesco stores Lisbon bitWallet JV pf NTT Suica adoption & Sony with 43K driven by East merchants, 23m Japan railways launches PayPass in users 7/06 with 25K cards
launched Visa Wave in 2005 with 300K cards, 2 co-brand partners Watson’s and CostCo Source: Datamonitor, June, 2006, “Contactless Payments 2006”, ePayments News Network, 7/06, ABI 3/07, Cardline, Aberdeen Group 2006, IBM analysis Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
= other pilots and trials
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Collaboration Landscape
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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COBRA … listening to the voice of the customer COBRA includes a dynamic dashboard where filters can narrow the search down to specific topics
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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2009 IBM Corporation
The Evolution of Communities Over the Centuries
Physical / Communications Reach
al
InterGalactic
t cas d a Bro 1902
Galactic
al Physic
196BC Rosetta Stone
~1041 Pi Sheng Printing Press
InterContinental
Local
~1800 First Typewriter
405BC Heliograph
Planetary
Regional
~2015 Voyager I will leave Solar system
Electric Typewriter
Solar System
Continental
b Glo
3000BC Papyrus
2000BC Alphabetic Writing
1837 Morse’s Telegraph 1792 Semaphores
1927 Television
~1860 Telephone
~1450 Gutenberg Printing Press
1969 Internet
6000BC-4000BC Symbolic Writing
Industrial Revolution and Egyptian Dynasties Roman Empire Middle Ages Renaissance Urbanization
3500BC Wheeled Carts & River Boats
2000BC
2000BC Horses Tamed
Constructed from: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_timelines
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
1000BC
0
Engineered Roads
500
Digital Divide
2400BC Courier System
3500BC
1896 Radio
1000
770 Iron Horseshoes
1500
1700
1672 Steam car
Exploration and Exploitation by Ocean Going Ships
1800
1804 Steam Locomotive 1783 Hot Air Balloon
1850
1943 Colossus
Industrialization and SubUrbanization 1900
1903 Airplane
1969 Man Reaches the Moon
1987 MMORPG 1991 3D MMORPG 1981 IBM PC
1947 1908 Supersonic Automobile Flight Assembly Line 1926 Liquid Fueled Rocket
2063 1st Warp Drive
2151 Enterprise NX-01
2000 International Space Station 1989 The WEB
1950
Digital Communities 2006 Second Life
Information Age Digital Communities
2000
1967 Concorde
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How does IBM use Virtual Worlds?
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm “Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies • Provides massively scalable computing resources from operate.” anywhere
2009 Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery • Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers
1990
Utility Computing
Grid Computing
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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Cloud Computing Network-Delivered Services are the culmination of a long term trend to simplify the purchasing of IT Services
Definition:
The 5 Layers of Cloud Services
Cloud computing is a model of shared networkdelivered services, both public and private, in which the user sees only the service, and need not worry about implementation details Types of Clouds Private Cloud
Specialty Cloud
Commodity Cloud
On-premise or remote
Provides services to a particular industry, geography, etc.
Generic services (CPU cycles, e-mail, storage, etc) available to anyone
Built with deep application knowledge
Requires massive scalability in operation and management
Service-oriented architecture Built on New Enterprise Data Center
Requires technology for security / isolation
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
People Services Business Services
Social Networking Collaboration Sales Force Automation
Customer Care
Payments
Application Services
Industry Frameworks & Information Foundation
Platform Services
Open SOA Foundation Service Bus
Infrastructure Services
Distributed Cloud Computing Services
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Growing Portfolio of IBM Cloud Computing Offerings A portfolio of leadership products and services for optimizing with cloud computing that continues to grow to support customers with cloud building and cloud delivered offerings.
Cloud Consulting
Cloud Implementation
Infrastructure strategy & planning for cloud computing Business cloud consulting services IT optimization services
IBM design and implementation for test & developer Cloud IBM Service Management Center for Cloud Computing Scale out File Services
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
Cloud Delivered IBM LotusLive Computing on Demand IBM Information Protection Services • Remote data protection service • Managed data protection for desktops and laptops
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History of exploiting data
Structured ~ 20%
Solution Area
video
Surveillance video analysis feature extraction image recognition
Analytic technology
image
speech recognition Call-center apps
audio
translation
Social Network Analysis
event recognition
Data Types
Unstructured Information ~ 80%
The ability to extract value from massive amounts of data and respond to real-time information is becoming a crucial competitive differentiator. Value is realized by making smart data-driven decisions.
text
sentiment recognition entity recognition
keyword search
term extraction Linguistic models
Numeric
-3000
0
Census
1600
1800
Forecasting Zhou Dynasty
Mesopotamia Egypt
1958 H.P. Luhn (IBM) defines the term Business Intelligence
Roman Empire
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009 data warehousing
Statistics
Inca
1960
1990
Question Answering Patent Mining
Reputation Analysis
SEC doc analysis correspondence analysis terrorist threat
2000
2010
Time
Black Monte Carlo Swans simulations neural networks Machine Learning Supply-Chain Management predictive modeling
Operations Research Optimization
1889 Hollerith Tabulating Machine Patent 395782 1654 Pascal and Fermat Credit Probability Theory
data mining
1980
Story understanding pass SAT, GRE …
clustering decision trees
Customer Segmentation
Fraud
queuing theory
Scoring
Markov decision process
Risk stochastic analysis
Portfolio Optimization Page 41
2009 IBM Corporation
Intelligent Security - Smart Surveillance Big Brother is Watching !! Turning video data into useful information
IBM Research
What: “Find red cars” Value: Respond to new threats
Customer hot spot – high value display area in store
At returns counter with product
Enters store without product
What: “Match people across cameras” Value: Prevent Returns Fraud
Sample Smart Surveillance Solutions
Lunch / After work peak traffic at store What: Count people Value: Measure Conversion Rate
Bets placed after cards are dealt
What: Space usage statistics Value: Display Effectiveness
What: Real-time Alerting Value: Prevent Cheating in Casinos
Virtual Perimeter around Tarmac
What: Real-time Alerting Value: Prevent illegal entry into secure area
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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Real-time Translation Services
Simplified Business Engines
Intelligent Utility Networks
3D Internet
“Digital Me”
Big Green Innovations
Branchless Banking for the Masses
Smart Healthcare Payment Systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Electronic Health Record System
Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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Do one brave thing today … then run like heck !!
Do one brave thing today … then run like heck !! Clive Harris, IBM Distinguished Engineer June 2009
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Future Focus
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Future Focus Suttons Consumer Products Limited Alex Grenfell
2009 IBM Corporation
WHO ARE WE? • Old established (1806) company in gardening sector • Part of foreign owned Group • Generally known as “Suttons Seeds” • Famous brand – “heritage; quality; trust”, all those sort of things • Classic SME; maybe more ‘M’ than ‘S’! • Some vitals:
Sales £18m. Profitable c.200 staff Based South Devon R.W.H. 49 / x
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WHAT DO WE DO? • “Sell / supply products to / for the amateur gardener” • Those products include Seed ( of course!) Plants – all types Bulbs Tools & Equipment Propagation etc. • Approx. 6000 sku’s • Using Suttons + 3 other brands (+ own label)
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WHO DO WE SELL TO? • Private consumers (M.O. / Ecommerce) • Smaller Independents up to major multiples (Tesco, Asda, B & Q etc.) • Garden Clubs, Local Authorities etc. • TV Home Shopping • Press / Promotional Companies / Agencies • Overseas – Russia to USA to Dubai to Italy etc. = Extremely diverse range of customers!
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SO, OUR KEY CHARACTERISTICS ARE …. • Complexity!
(Products, Customers, Brands ....)
• “Working in the ‘sleepy world’ of gardening” (but Tesco, Asda, B & Q not sleepy!) • Trusted / famous brand • “Friendly but Professional” • “Industry best” levels of service and support
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WHAT ARE OUR KEY CHALLENGES? • Managing the complexity we have – should we rationalise (pro’s and cons)? • We have a mature workforce – average age upper 40’s What thoughts on the issue of succession? (ignore it / let it happen; plan carefully; whatever ….) • The conundrum of history / heritage / modernity (internet, EDI, etc.) What thoughts on balancing these (sometimes) opposing aspects of the business?
…….. Suitable words of wisdom welcomed!
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Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Smart Ideas
2009 IBM Corporation
Smart Ideas from forward-looking organisations Future Focus website has become a hub for Smart Ideas including The Ultimate Leadership Guide – a desktop tool with a synopsis of all the best advice on everything from motivation and problem solving to planning and self-development Flexible Skills Bank – allowing smaller businesses to tap into a register of skilled professionals who work part time and freelance Study Ball – quite literally, a 21 pound ball and chain with a timed release designed to ensure your son or daughter doesn‘t slope off when they should be revising for exams (!)
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Favourite Smart Ideas: Hydrocyc from DPS Engineering DPS specialise in process systems for the oil and gas industry Now developed a domestic water recycling system called Hydrocyc Recycles 'grey' water - the waste from baths, showers and hand basins - so that it can be used for flushing toilets or watering the garden. Considerably smaller, lighter and more affordable than any alternative systems Reduces water bills by as much as 30-35pc (the amount of drinking water currently used to flush the toilet in a typical home) Homeowners should recoup the cost within just two years www.dps-global.com
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Favourite Smart Ideas: Niggle Niggle offers businesses customer feedback technology which is free at the point of use. Any organisation can advertise Niggle feedback channels to their customers, encouraging customers to send feedback via text message, mobile phone and online. The service is completely free to the business. Customer contact details are protected by Niggle, so customers trust it as an independent feedback delivery service. Niggle makes money when businesses ‘upgrade’ to use Niggle to reply to and reward customer feedback – even if it’s given anonymously. www.niggle.co.uk
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Runner-Up: OfficePOD
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The Service + Product The Full Service - site survey, enabling work, installation, customer support, repairs, relocation and removal. Lease - £5k p.a. + VAT Preferred by medium/large organisations as a full outsourced service. Purchase - £20k + VAT. Preferred by smaller organisations as tax deductible within £50k annual allowance.
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OfficePOD is a Smart Idea because it 1. Reduces fixed costs by £9k/person/annum plus for any business currently paying rent >£50 / sq ft 2. Attracts and retains the best staff – Proximity to the fixed office no longer an issue 3. Improves environmental/CSR position – Instant CO2 reduction between 46-67% 4. Increases productivity – Properly managed home-working increases productivity 5. Creates a business that’s flexible/dynamic to change with incremental growth possible 6. Shorter order & commitment period than normal office & transferable if employee moves or leaves 7. Outsource Non-Core Service – ‘One-stop shop’ for provision of the work environment
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Best Smart Idea: The Highways Agency
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Need for change 1958
2008
2.8m Vehicles
28m Cars 33m Vehicles
8.62 miles of Motorway
2025 miles of Motorway 6500 miles of Motorways and Trunk Roads
Preston Bypass cost £2.9m
M/way and Trunk Roads worth >£80bn
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Smart Ideas for managing motorways “Toolkit” of technologies and construction procedures to make better use of motorways and trunk roads
• Additional capacity for vehicles (see extra lane on left) • Piloting & evaluating new and innovative concepts • Helping to alleviate congestion • Improving the detection of & response to incidents • Reducing delays caused by incidents or congestion
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Information Technology
4,450 traffic sensors 1,030 ANPR cameras to monitor journey times (448 sites) 1,000 CCTV cameras 1,250 MIDAS sites 1,470 other outstations measuring flow Equipment Availability 98.7%
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Better Information
Mobile website
Internet Services
Information Points
Variable Message Signs
HA National Traffic Control Centre
Traffic Radio
Information Line 08457 50 40 30 66 / x
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Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus futurefocus.blog.com
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation