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Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Focus of Future Technology Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Introduction
IBM analysis of top technology trends indicates evolution and innovation IT Technology Trends 2008 •
Green Data Center
•
Software as a Service
•
Virtualization 2.0
•
Cloud Computing
•
Information Management
•
Semantic Web
•
The Security Imperative
•
Emerging Country Provisioning Platform
Energy, Environment & Sustainability
IT Technology Trends 2009 2. Web Services 3. Virtualization 4. Cloud Computing 5. SaaS 6. Analytics as a Service 7. Mobile Applications / Services 8. Security 9. Embedded Intelligence
•
SOA Web2.0 Mashups
10. Unified Communications
•
Embedded Data Intelligence
11. Colaboration / Telepresence
•
Unified Communications
•
Speech Technology
•
Surface Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent
Infrastructure Development
Page 4
2009 IBM Corporation
Increased focus on technologies Explosion in financial market dataembedded volumes
Govt/Military intelligence and surveillance
> 4 Trillion RFID events per day
New York stock exchange trade & quote volume
Consumer Generated Media
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
By 2010 these, embedded internet devices like sensors, RFIDs, will represent 95% of all internet connected systems
Page 5
2009 IBM Corporation
Sensors, Sensors Everywhere – Smart Water in Galway Bay Water Systems As Utilities. Innovative Bio-Sensing. Groundwater Quality. Hydro – Geological Models. Socio – Economic Assessment. Scenario Tools. Modelling. Data Transformation / Intelligence.
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 6
2009 IBM Corporation
Mobile Applications & Services – anytime, anyplace, anywhere ... PAX goes to airline’s mobile portal
Web based application delivered via mobile browser
PAX views/modify itinerary , seat map, etc and checks-in for flight
Barcode (boarding pass ) sent to phone as a link via e-mail or sms message
Within four years, more than 70% of the workforce will connect to corporate networks via mobile devices – IDC WW Mobile Middleware 2008–2012 , Jan 2009
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 7
2009 IBM Corporation
And what about our clients? Kiosks
Self-Service
=
Web Mobile IVR/ Call Center
Choice and control is handed to customers with consistency of information and clear transition paths across channels Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 8
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration – internally & externally will be increasingly dominant Incubation
Idea Generation Publish Ideas
Select Ideas
Peer Reviews
Develop Solutions
Collaborate
Product Trials
Early User Feedback
An estimated 2 billion people will be on the Web by 2011 ... … innovation will increasingly come from multi-partner collaboration
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 9
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration Landscape
Majority of CEOs Surveyed by IBM indicated that their main source of innovation was from clients & staff – not formal R&D. Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Survey of Collaboration Tools in use by IBMers
Page 10
2009 IBM Corporation
IBMers and Clients collaborating to identify innovations
Real-time Translation Services
Simplified Business Engines
Intelligent Utility Networks
3D Internet
“Digital Me”
Big Green Innovations
Branchless Banking for the Masses
Smart Healthcare Payment Systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Electronic Health Record System
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 11
2009 IBM Corporation
Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm “Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies • Provides massively scalable computing resources from operate.” anywhere
2009 Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery • Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers
1990
Utility Computing
Grid Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 12
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
13
What is Cloud Computing? “The key characteristics of the cloud are the ability to scale and provision computing power dynamically in a cost efficient way and the ability of the consumer (end user, organization or IT staff) to make the most of that power without having to manage the underlying complexity of the technology. The cloud architecture itself can be private (hosted within an organization’s firewall) or public (hosted on the Internet).” Source: www.opencloudmanifesto.org
Service Consumers Datacenter Infrastructure
Monitor & Manage Services & Resources
Access Services
IT Cloud
Cloud Administrator
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Service Catalog, Component Library
Component Vendors/ Software Publishers Publish & Update Components, Service Templates
Page 13
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
14
Cloud Computing has the potential to evolve IT to a utility Without Cloud 100%
New Development
Software Costs
With Cloud Liberated funding for new development, transformation investment or direct saving
Strategic Change Capacity
Power Costs
Current IT Spend
Labor Costs (Operations and Maintenance)
Hardware Costs (annualized)
The IBM TAP business case re-presents an ideal environment for a private cloud implementation. By implementing virtualization and automated provisioning, the team was able to: Reduce from 488 servers to 55 Reduce from 15 admins to 2 Reduce Power costs (fewer servers)
Deployment (1-time) Software Costs
Power Costs (88.8%) Labor Costs ( - 80.7%) Hardware Costs ( - 88.7%)
Hardware, labor & power savings re-duced annual cost of operation by 83.8%
Note: Clients who have already adopted virtualization and automated provisioning will see different results.
Note: 3-Year Depreciation Period with 10% Discount Rate Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 14
2009 IBM Corporation
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 15
2009 IBM Corporation
Summary The world is fast becoming instrumented, interconnected & intelligent .... embedded computing will appear in ever more places Technology will enable us to reach further & faster (and our competitors will too!) The interaction is shifting to the end user .... do not become disintermediated redundant Collaboration is a fact of life in a connected world .... new alliances & opportunities New IT models – like Cloud – will provide new options for optimizing your IT spend
Have a strategy!!
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 16
2009 IBM Corporation
Do one brave thing today …
… then run like heck !! Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 17
17
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Technology Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Business means Technology Ian Jones, NCC, Head of Research 2009 IBM Corporation
Agenda
21 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
About NCC
22 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Change is the only constant…..
– Did you Know?
23 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends: Enterprise 2.0 – the old guard vs the 2.0ers
Compromise 24 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples…
25 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples
26 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples – www.twine.com
27 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends - Cloud Computing
28 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Put simply…
Cloud Computing is… the externalisation of enterprise IT across the
internet to provide business
services from a commodity based infrastructure…. …. With and
payment by usage…
limited, if any, commitment from either side. 29 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Its all about convergence - a brief history….
30 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Market predictions… software and IT Services
31 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Why?
32 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Why not?
33 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Recommendations – what now?
34 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Security vs. Accessibility…
35 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Ian Jones, NCC Head of Research Tel: 0161 242 2170 Email: [email protected]
36 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie Eamonn Fallon
2009 IBM Corporation
A PRODUCT BORN OUT OF FRUSTRATION...
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
39 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
40 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Today...
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
41 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Ireland’s No.1 Property Medium Monthly Uniques
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
Audience Market Share
42 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie – A property marketplace 95 out of every 100 properties for sale now listed on Daft.ie
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
Yearly rental income facilitated by the Daft lettings section
43 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Our Advertisers ― Who are they? – Individuals selling/renting property (~100,000) – Estate Agents (~1,500) – Big brands (~50)
― Where did all these advertisers come from? – The internet broke the newspaper business model – We are much cheaper and much more effective
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
44 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie is not a web business! 1. Build Audience
2. Sell Advertising
>
3. Profit?
>
X 1.2 million We are a MEDIA business! Same old formula used by newspaper, tv and radio industries for years Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
45 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
QUESTIONS?
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
46 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Focus of Future Technology Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Introduction
IBM analysis of top technology trends indicates evolution and innovation IT Technology Trends 2008 •
Green Data Center
•
Software as a Service
•
Virtualization 2.0
•
Cloud Computing
•
Information Management
•
Semantic Web
•
The Security Imperative
•
Emerging Country Provisioning Platform
Energy, Environment & Sustainability
IT Technology Trends 2009 2. Web Services 3. Virtualization 4. Cloud Computing 5. SaaS 6. Analytics as a Service 7. Mobile Applications / Services 8. Security 9. Embedded Intelligence
•
SOA Web2.0 Mashups
10. Unified Communications
•
Embedded Data Intelligence
11. Colaboration / Telepresence
•
Unified Communications
•
Speech Technology
•
Surface Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent
Infrastructure Development
Page 49
2009 IBM Corporation
Increased focus on embedded technologies Explosion in financial market data volumes
Govt/Military intelligence and surveillance
> 4 Trillion RFID events per day
New York stock exchange trade & quote volume
Consumer Generated Media
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
By 2010 these, embedded internet devices like sensors, RFIDs, will represent 95% of all internet connected systems
Page 50
2009 IBM Corporation
Sensors, Sensors Everywhere – Smart Water in Galway Bay Water Systems As Utilities. Innovative Bio-Sensing. Groundwater Quality. Hydro – Geological Models. Socio – Economic Assessment. Scenario Tools. Modelling. Data Transformation / Intelligence.
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 51
2009 IBM Corporation
Mobile Applications & Services – anytime, anyplace, anywhere ... PAX goes to airline’s mobile portal
Web based application delivered via mobile browser
PAX views/modify itinerary , seat map, etc and checks-in for flight
Barcode (boarding pass ) sent to phone as a link via e-mail or sms message
Within four years, more than 70% of the workforce will connect to corporate networks via mobile devices – IDC WW Mobile Middleware 2008–2012 , Jan 2009
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 52
2009 IBM Corporation
And what about our clients? Kiosks
Self-Service
=
Web Mobile IVR/ Call Center
Choice and control is handed to customers with consistency of information and clear transition paths across channels Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 53
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration – internally & externally will be increasingly dominant Incubation
Idea Generation Publish Ideas
Select Ideas
Peer Reviews
Develop Solutions
Collaborate
Product Trials
Early User Feedback
An estimated 2 billion people will be on the Web by 2011 ... … innovation will increasingly come from multi-partner collaboration
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 54
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration Landscape
Majority of CEOs Surveyed by IBM indicated that their main source of innovation was from clients & staff – not formal R&D. Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Survey of Collaboration Tools in use by IBMers
Page 55
2009 IBM Corporation
IBMers and Clients collaborating to identify innovations
Real-time Translation Services
Simplified Business Engines
Intelligent Utility Networks
3D Internet
“Digital Me”
Big Green Innovations
Branchless Banking for the Masses
Smart Healthcare Payment Systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Electronic Health Record System
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 56
2009 IBM Corporation
Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm “Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies • Provides massively scalable computing resources from operate.” anywhere
2009 Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery • Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers
1990
Utility Computing
Grid Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 57
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
58
What is Cloud Computing? “The key characteristics of the cloud are the ability to scale and provision computing power dynamically in a cost efficient way and the ability of the consumer (end user, organization or IT staff) to make the most of that power without having to manage the underlying complexity of the technology. The cloud architecture itself can be private (hosted within an organization’s firewall) or public (hosted on the Internet).” Source: www.opencloudmanifesto.org
Service Consumers Datacenter Infrastructure
Monitor & Manage Services & Resources
Access Services
IT Cloud
Cloud Administrator
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Service Catalog, Component Library
Component Vendors/ Software Publishers Publish & Update Components, Service Templates
Page 58
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
59
Cloud Computing has the potential to evolve IT to a utility Without Cloud 100%
New Development
Software Costs
With Cloud Liberated funding for new development, transformation investment or direct saving
Strategic Change Capacity
Power Costs
Current IT Spend
Labor Costs (Operations and Maintenance)
Hardware Costs (annualized)
The IBM TAP business case re-presents an ideal environment for a private cloud implementation. By implementing virtualization and automated provisioning, the team was able to: Reduce from 488 servers to 55 Reduce from 15 admins to 2 Reduce Power costs (fewer servers)
Deployment (1-time) Software Costs
Power Costs (88.8%) Labor Costs ( - 80.7%) Hardware Costs ( - 88.7%)
Hardware, labor & power savings re-duced annual cost of operation by 83.8%
Note: Clients who have already adopted virtualization and automated provisioning will see different results.
Note: 3-Year Depreciation Period with 10% Discount Rate Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 59
2009 IBM Corporation
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 60
2009 IBM Corporation
Summary The world is fast becoming instrumented, interconnected & intelligent .... embedded computing will appear in ever more places Technology will enable us to reach further & faster (and our competitors will too!) The interaction is shifting to the end user .... do not become disintermediated redundant Collaboration is a fact of life in a connected world .... new alliances & opportunities New IT models – like Cloud – will provide new options for optimizing your IT spend
Have a strategy!!
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 61
2009 IBM Corporation
Do one brave thing today …
… then run like heck !! Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 62
62
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Online Future in Focus John McElligott, eBay Classifieds Group June 09
Show of hands: 1. Bought a newspaper today?
2. Bought a car in the last year? 3. Understand purpose of all 42 buttons on the standard Remote Control? John McElligott, June 09
65
Agenda:
• Intro to eBay Inc and eBay Classifieds Group • Insights for today’s economy (main part) • Some Tips for the future
John McElligott, June 09
66
eBay – Our beginnings …
John McElligott, June 09
67
eBay today
John McElligott, June 09
68
eBay Classifieds Group
John McElligott, June 09
69
Four insights for today’s economy:
1
User needs stay relatively constant over time … though how best to satisfy those needs can change quickly
2
Business trends can be easy to spot … either in retrospect (bad) … or if you separate them into component parts (much better)
3
The most important thing in business is often the ability to do the basics really well
4
Several new (or at least modified) rules DO apply today. It’s rarely a good idea to ignore or fight these
John McElligott, June 09
70
1
“Will it be a fine day for the game tomorrow?”
User Needs
My Grandad My Dad Me
John McElligott, June 09
71
“I want to listen to my favourite music when and where I want” User Needs: Needs: User
1980 1880 -- 1995 1980
User Needs 2010
John McElligott, June 09
72
1 User Needs
1
Customers prefer simplicity
User Needs
Gen X
John McElligott, June 09
“Facebook generation”
73
Business trends can be easy to spot either in retrospect … or if you separate them into component parts - Motor industry example
•
Today’s cars are very reliable and never rust! •
John McElligott, June 09
Today’s cars have great performance!
74
2 Business Trends
2
“Today’s cars are …
Business Trends
2009 Toyota
… exactly the same as those of 20 years ago!
… and Toyota are the industry leader!! 1990 Toyota
… so we clearly need fewer cars to be manufactured… … and someone is surprised about this?
John McElligott, June 09
75
“I want up-to-date news for the areas in which I am interested”
In 2010
Satisfying Needs?
1. Targetted 2. Real-time 3. ‘Pull’ – user in control 4. Convenient 5. Environmentally responsible
John McElligott, June 09
76
2 Business Trends
Banks dramatically failing their customers
Who needs banks? P2P Lending - Big in 2010
9% Return via Zopa.co.uk
John McElligott, June 09
77
2 Business Trends
•Remember that …
2 Business Trends
•…recessions are the times in business when we see the greatest changes in relative competitive position •Some players simply do not survive. Certain trends are accelerated through the effects of the downturn •Despite their obvious downsides, recessions are often times of great competitive opportunities John McElligott, June 09
78
The most important thing in business is often the ability to do the basics really well
The M & M & M & M approach Market Size? Market Share? Margin (i.e. Cost base)
John McElligott, June 09
79
3 Focus on the basics
3
Enterprise Case Study: Dramatic fall in ‘P&L’
Focus on the basics
Republic of Ireland Government Balance 0.4 2004
3.0
1.7
2005
0.2 2006
2008
2009
2010
2007
-7.1 -12.0 -15.6 John McElligott, June 09
80
Apply M&M&M: If ‘Govt of Ireland Plc’ were a business and had to break-even No – Ireland is in recession, credit is tight, household wealth depleted and global conditions not favourable
Can we grow market size? i.e. Can we increase National Income (GDP)
Can we grow market share? i.e. Can we increase Tax Take?
No – Reduces competitiveness, drives away business, tried and failed in 1980’s, insufficient to bridge the necessary gap
Can we increase margins? i.e. Can we reduce Govt spending?
Yes – we would simply have to if we wanted to stay in business as a going concern
M&M&M Prognosis: John McElligott, June 09
A large scale (~20%) and regretful reduction in both spending and staff An overdue focus on performance 81
4 Several new (or at least modified) rules DO apply today. It’s rarely a good idea to ignore or fight these
Why? Grownups believe that the world is just like when they were growing up and that everything happening now is an
exception John McElligott, June 09
82
4
Transparency is unstoppable:
Modified Rules
… performance management?
Long overdue …
Democratisation?
John McElligott, June 09
83
Consumers trust complete strangers more than marketeers
Modified Rules
“… is a dreadful hotel. Rooms are in serious need of refurbishment. They smelt and the noise was intolerable. Would never stay again.”
“… is a delightful 3 bed semi detached property located at the end of this leafy estate with all amenities on your doorstep. This ideal property is a must view and is available at any time.”
John McElligott, June 09
4
84
Pay for Performance advertising is here to stay
4 Modified Rules
“A dramatic improvement over earlier models”
John McElligott, June 09
85
Tip: Measure things … in detail … regularly … Keep on top of your metrics Here are some of ours Visits, Minutes, Unique Visitors, Direct Traffic, ARPU, RPM, CPC, CTR … What about your competitors? BUT!!! Beware of extrapolation: What game-changers are possible, or even likely? How can you guard against negative ones? How can you take advantage of positive ones? John McElligott, June 09
86
Tip: It’s a great time to hire
John McElligott, June 09
87
Tip: Online Advertising - bigger in 2010
John McElligott, June 09
88
Tip: We all have to be capable of trusting our own judgement
"Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often possess more data than judgment. Elites can become so inbred that they bleed to death as soon as they are nicked by the real world." - General Colin Powell John McElligott, June 09
89
Compete and Win! Good luck!
John McElligott, June 09
90
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Focus of Future Technology Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Introduction
IBM analysis of top technology trends indicates evolution and innovation IT Technology Trends 2008 •
Green Data Center
•
Software as a Service
•
Virtualization 2.0
•
Cloud Computing
•
Information Management
•
Semantic Web
•
The Security Imperative
•
Emerging Country Provisioning Platform
Energy, Environment & Sustainability
IT Technology Trends 2009 2. Web Services 3. Virtualization 4. Cloud Computing 5. SaaS 6. Analytics as a Service 7. Mobile Applications / Services 8. Security 9. Embedded Intelligence
•
SOA Web2.0 Mashups
10. Unified Communications
•
Embedded Data Intelligence
11. Colaboration / Telepresence
•
Unified Communications
•
Speech Technology
•
Surface Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent
Infrastructure Development
Page 4
2009 IBM Corporation
Increased focus on technologies Explosion in financial market dataembedded volumes
Govt/Military intelligence and surveillance
> 4 Trillion RFID events per day
New York stock exchange trade & quote volume
Consumer Generated Media
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
By 2010 these, embedded internet devices like sensors, RFIDs, will represent 95% of all internet connected systems
Page 5
2009 IBM Corporation
Sensors, Sensors Everywhere – Smart Water in Galway Bay Water Systems As Utilities. Innovative Bio-Sensing. Groundwater Quality. Hydro – Geological Models. Socio – Economic Assessment. Scenario Tools. Modelling. Data Transformation / Intelligence.
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 6
2009 IBM Corporation
Mobile Applications & Services – anytime, anyplace, anywhere ... PAX goes to airline’s mobile portal
Web based application delivered via mobile browser
PAX views/modify itinerary , seat map, etc and checks-in for flight
Barcode (boarding pass ) sent to phone as a link via e-mail or sms message
Within four years, more than 70% of the workforce will connect to corporate networks via mobile devices – IDC WW Mobile Middleware 2008–2012 , Jan 2009
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 7
2009 IBM Corporation
And what about our clients? Kiosks
Self-Service
=
Web Mobile IVR/ Call Center
Choice and control is handed to customers with consistency of information and clear transition paths across channels Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 8
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration – internally & externally will be increasingly dominant Incubation
Idea Generation Publish Ideas
Select Ideas
Peer Reviews
Develop Solutions
Collaborate
Product Trials
Early User Feedback
An estimated 2 billion people will be on the Web by 2011 ... … innovation will increasingly come from multi-partner collaboration
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 9
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration Landscape
Majority of CEOs Surveyed by IBM indicated that their main source of innovation was from clients & staff – not formal R&D. Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Survey of Collaboration Tools in use by IBMers
Page 10
2009 IBM Corporation
IBMers and Clients collaborating to identify innovations
Real-time Translation Services
Simplified Business Engines
Intelligent Utility Networks
3D Internet
“Digital Me”
Big Green Innovations
Branchless Banking for the Masses
Smart Healthcare Payment Systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Electronic Health Record System
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 11
2009 IBM Corporation
Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm “Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies • Provides massively scalable computing resources from operate.” anywhere
2009 Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery • Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers
1990
Utility Computing
Grid Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 12
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
13
What is Cloud Computing? “The key characteristics of the cloud are the ability to scale and provision computing power dynamically in a cost efficient way and the ability of the consumer (end user, organization or IT staff) to make the most of that power without having to manage the underlying complexity of the technology. The cloud architecture itself can be private (hosted within an organization’s firewall) or public (hosted on the Internet).” Source: www.opencloudmanifesto.org
Service Consumers Datacenter Infrastructure
Monitor & Manage Services & Resources
Access Services
IT Cloud
Cloud Administrator
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Service Catalog, Component Library
Component Vendors/ Software Publishers Publish & Update Components, Service Templates
Page 13
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
14
Cloud Computing has the potential to evolve IT to a utility Without Cloud 100%
New Development
Software Costs
With Cloud Liberated funding for new development, transformation investment or direct saving
Strategic Change Capacity
Power Costs
Current IT Spend
Labor Costs (Operations and Maintenance)
Hardware Costs (annualized)
The IBM TAP business case re-presents an ideal environment for a private cloud implementation. By implementing virtualization and automated provisioning, the team was able to: Reduce from 488 servers to 55 Reduce from 15 admins to 2 Reduce Power costs (fewer servers)
Deployment (1-time) Software Costs
Power Costs (88.8%) Labor Costs ( - 80.7%) Hardware Costs ( - 88.7%)
Hardware, labor & power savings re-duced annual cost of operation by 83.8%
Note: Clients who have already adopted virtualization and automated provisioning will see different results.
Note: 3-Year Depreciation Period with 10% Discount Rate Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 14
2009 IBM Corporation
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 15
2009 IBM Corporation
Summary The world is fast becoming instrumented, interconnected & intelligent .... embedded computing will appear in ever more places Technology will enable us to reach further & faster (and our competitors will too!) The interaction is shifting to the end user .... do not become disintermediated redundant Collaboration is a fact of life in a connected world .... new alliances & opportunities New IT models – like Cloud – will provide new options for optimizing your IT spend
Have a strategy!!
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 16
2009 IBM Corporation
Do one brave thing today …
… then run like heck !! Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 17
17
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Technology Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Business means Technology Ian Jones, NCC, Head of Research 2009 IBM Corporation
Agenda
21 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
About NCC
22 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Change is the only constant…..
– Did you Know?
23 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends: Enterprise 2.0 – the old guard vs the 2.0ers
Compromise 24 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples…
25 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples
26 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Enterprise 2.0: Examples – www.twine.com
27 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Technology Trends - Cloud Computing
28 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Put simply…
Cloud Computing is… the externalisation of enterprise IT across the
internet to provide business
services from a commodity based infrastructure…. …. With and
payment by usage…
limited, if any, commitment from either side. 29 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Its all about convergence - a brief history….
30 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Market predictions… software and IT Services
31 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Why?
32 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Why not?
33 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Recommendations – what now?
34 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Security vs. Accessibility…
35 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Ian Jones, NCC Head of Research Tel: 0161 242 2170 Email: [email protected]
36 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie Eamonn Fallon
2009 IBM Corporation
A PRODUCT BORN OUT OF FRUSTRATION...
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
39 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
40 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Today...
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
41 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Ireland’s No.1 Property Medium Monthly Uniques
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
Audience Market Share
42 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie – A property marketplace 95 out of every 100 properties for sale now listed on Daft.ie
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
Yearly rental income facilitated by the Daft lettings section
43 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Our Advertisers ― Who are they? – Individuals selling/renting property (~100,000) – Estate Agents (~1,500) – Big brands (~50)
― Where did all these advertisers come from? – The internet broke the newspaper business model – We are much cheaper and much more effective
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
44 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Daft.ie is not a web business! 1. Build Audience
2. Sell Advertising
>
3. Profit?
>
X 1.2 million We are a MEDIA business! Same old formula used by newspaper, tv and radio industries for years Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
45 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
QUESTIONS?
Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date
46 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Focus of Future Technology Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center
June 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Introduction
IBM analysis of top technology trends indicates evolution and innovation IT Technology Trends 2008 •
Green Data Center
•
Software as a Service
•
Virtualization 2.0
•
Cloud Computing
•
Information Management
•
Semantic Web
•
The Security Imperative
•
Emerging Country Provisioning Platform
Energy, Environment & Sustainability
IT Technology Trends 2009 2. Web Services 3. Virtualization 4. Cloud Computing 5. SaaS 6. Analytics as a Service 7. Mobile Applications / Services 8. Security 9. Embedded Intelligence
•
SOA Web2.0 Mashups
10. Unified Communications
•
Embedded Data Intelligence
11. Colaboration / Telepresence
•
Unified Communications
•
Speech Technology
•
Surface Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Instrumented Interconnected Intelligent
Infrastructure Development
Page 49
2009 IBM Corporation
Increased focus on embedded technologies Explosion in financial market data volumes
Govt/Military intelligence and surveillance
> 4 Trillion RFID events per day
New York stock exchange trade & quote volume
Consumer Generated Media
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
By 2010 these, embedded internet devices like sensors, RFIDs, will represent 95% of all internet connected systems
Page 50
2009 IBM Corporation
Sensors, Sensors Everywhere – Smart Water in Galway Bay Water Systems As Utilities. Innovative Bio-Sensing. Groundwater Quality. Hydro – Geological Models. Socio – Economic Assessment. Scenario Tools. Modelling. Data Transformation / Intelligence.
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 51
2009 IBM Corporation
Mobile Applications & Services – anytime, anyplace, anywhere ... PAX goes to airline’s mobile portal
Web based application delivered via mobile browser
PAX views/modify itinerary , seat map, etc and checks-in for flight
Barcode (boarding pass ) sent to phone as a link via e-mail or sms message
Within four years, more than 70% of the workforce will connect to corporate networks via mobile devices – IDC WW Mobile Middleware 2008–2012 , Jan 2009
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 52
2009 IBM Corporation
And what about our clients? Kiosks
Self-Service
=
Web Mobile IVR/ Call Center
Choice and control is handed to customers with consistency of information and clear transition paths across channels Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 53
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration – internally & externally will be increasingly dominant Incubation
Idea Generation Publish Ideas
Select Ideas
Peer Reviews
Develop Solutions
Collaborate
Product Trials
Early User Feedback
An estimated 2 billion people will be on the Web by 2011 ... … innovation will increasingly come from multi-partner collaboration
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 54
2009 IBM Corporation
Collaboration Landscape
Majority of CEOs Surveyed by IBM indicated that their main source of innovation was from clients & staff – not formal R&D. Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Survey of Collaboration Tools in use by IBMers
Page 55
2009 IBM Corporation
IBMers and Clients collaborating to identify innovations
Real-time Translation Services
Simplified Business Engines
Intelligent Utility Networks
3D Internet
“Digital Me”
Big Green Innovations
Branchless Banking for the Masses
Smart Healthcare Payment Systems
Intelligent Transportation Systems
Electronic Health Record System
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 56
2009 IBM Corporation
Cloud Computing – a Disruptive New Paradigm “Clouds will transform the information technology (IT) industry… profoundly change the way people work and companies • Provides massively scalable computing resources from operate.” anywhere
2009 Cloud Computing
• Simplifies services delivery • Enables rapid innovation of new business models
Software as a Service
• Dynamic Infrastructure for next generation data centers
1990
Utility Computing
Grid Computing
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 57
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
58
What is Cloud Computing? “The key characteristics of the cloud are the ability to scale and provision computing power dynamically in a cost efficient way and the ability of the consumer (end user, organization or IT staff) to make the most of that power without having to manage the underlying complexity of the technology. The cloud architecture itself can be private (hosted within an organization’s firewall) or public (hosted on the Internet).” Source: www.opencloudmanifesto.org
Service Consumers Datacenter Infrastructure
Monitor & Manage Services & Resources
Access Services
IT Cloud
Cloud Administrator
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Service Catalog, Component Library
Component Vendors/ Software Publishers Publish & Update Components, Service Templates
Page 58
2009 IBM Corporation
0 6 / 1 5 / 0 9
59
Cloud Computing has the potential to evolve IT to a utility Without Cloud 100%
New Development
Software Costs
With Cloud Liberated funding for new development, transformation investment or direct saving
Strategic Change Capacity
Power Costs
Current IT Spend
Labor Costs (Operations and Maintenance)
Hardware Costs (annualized)
The IBM TAP business case re-presents an ideal environment for a private cloud implementation. By implementing virtualization and automated provisioning, the team was able to: Reduce from 488 servers to 55 Reduce from 15 admins to 2 Reduce Power costs (fewer servers)
Deployment (1-time) Software Costs
Power Costs (88.8%) Labor Costs ( - 80.7%) Hardware Costs ( - 88.7%)
Hardware, labor & power savings re-duced annual cost of operation by 83.8%
Note: Clients who have already adopted virtualization and automated provisioning will see different results.
Note: 3-Year Depreciation Period with 10% Discount Rate Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 59
2009 IBM Corporation
Succeeding in the New Economic Current Climate
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 60
2009 IBM Corporation
Summary The world is fast becoming instrumented, interconnected & intelligent .... embedded computing will appear in ever more places Technology will enable us to reach further & faster (and our competitors will too!) The interaction is shifting to the end user .... do not become disintermediated redundant Collaboration is a fact of life in a connected world .... new alliances & opportunities New IT models – like Cloud – will provide new options for optimizing your IT spend
Have a strategy!!
Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 61
2009 IBM Corporation
Do one brave thing today …
… then run like heck !! Pól Mac Aonghusa, CTO, Emerging Technology Incubation Center June 2009
Page 62
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2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Online Future in Focus John McElligott, eBay Classifieds Group June 09
Show of hands: 1. Bought a newspaper today?
2. Bought a car in the last year? 3. Understand purpose of all 42 buttons on the standard Remote Control? John McElligott, June 09
65
Agenda:
• Intro to eBay Inc and eBay Classifieds Group • Insights for today’s economy (main part) • Some Tips for the future
John McElligott, June 09
66
eBay – Our beginnings …
John McElligott, June 09
67
eBay today
John McElligott, June 09
68
eBay Classifieds Group
John McElligott, June 09
69
Four insights for today’s economy:
1
User needs stay relatively constant over time … though how best to satisfy those needs can change quickly
2
Business trends can be easy to spot … either in retrospect (bad) … or if you separate them into component parts (much better)
3
The most important thing in business is often the ability to do the basics really well
4
Several new (or at least modified) rules DO apply today. It’s rarely a good idea to ignore or fight these
John McElligott, June 09
70
1
“Will it be a fine day for the game tomorrow?”
User Needs
My Grandad My Dad Me
John McElligott, June 09
71
“I want to listen to my favourite music when and where I want” User Needs: Needs: User
1980 1880 -- 1995 1980
User Needs 2010
John McElligott, June 09
72
1 User Needs
1
Customers prefer simplicity
User Needs
Gen X
John McElligott, June 09
“Facebook generation”
73
Business trends can be easy to spot either in retrospect … or if you separate them into component parts - Motor industry example
•
Today’s cars are very reliable and never rust! •
John McElligott, June 09
Today’s cars have great performance!
74
2 Business Trends
2
“Today’s cars are …
Business Trends
2009 Toyota
… exactly the same as those of 20 years ago!
… and Toyota are the industry leader!! 1990 Toyota
… so we clearly need fewer cars to be manufactured… … and someone is surprised about this?
John McElligott, June 09
75
“I want up-to-date news for the areas in which I am interested”
In 2010
Satisfying Needs?
1. Targetted 2. Real-time 3. ‘Pull’ – user in control 4. Convenient 5. Environmentally responsible
John McElligott, June 09
76
2 Business Trends
Banks dramatically failing their customers
Who needs banks? P2P Lending - Big in 2010
9% Return via Zopa.co.uk
John McElligott, June 09
77
2 Business Trends
•Remember that …
2 Business Trends
•…recessions are the times in business when we see the greatest changes in relative competitive position •Some players simply do not survive. Certain trends are accelerated through the effects of the downturn •Despite their obvious downsides, recessions are often times of great competitive opportunities John McElligott, June 09
78
The most important thing in business is often the ability to do the basics really well
The M & M & M & M approach Market Size? Market Share? Margin (i.e. Cost base)
John McElligott, June 09
79
3 Focus on the basics
3
Enterprise Case Study: Dramatic fall in ‘P&L’
Focus on the basics
Republic of Ireland Government Balance 0.4 2004
3.0
1.7
2005
0.2 2006
2008
2009
2010
2007
-7.1 -12.0 -15.6 John McElligott, June 09
80
Apply M&M&M: If ‘Govt of Ireland Plc’ were a business and had to break-even No – Ireland is in recession, credit is tight, household wealth depleted and global conditions not favourable
Can we grow market size? i.e. Can we increase National Income (GDP)
Can we grow market share? i.e. Can we increase Tax Take?
No – Reduces competitiveness, drives away business, tried and failed in 1980’s, insufficient to bridge the necessary gap
Can we increase margins? i.e. Can we reduce Govt spending?
Yes – we would simply have to if we wanted to stay in business as a going concern
M&M&M Prognosis: John McElligott, June 09
A large scale (~20%) and regretful reduction in both spending and staff An overdue focus on performance 81
4 Several new (or at least modified) rules DO apply today. It’s rarely a good idea to ignore or fight these
Why? Grownups believe that the world is just like when they were growing up and that everything happening now is an
exception John McElligott, June 09
82
4
Transparency is unstoppable:
Modified Rules
… performance management?
Long overdue …
Democratisation?
John McElligott, June 09
83
Consumers trust complete strangers more than marketeers
Modified Rules
“… is a dreadful hotel. Rooms are in serious need of refurbishment. They smelt and the noise was intolerable. Would never stay again.”
“… is a delightful 3 bed semi detached property located at the end of this leafy estate with all amenities on your doorstep. This ideal property is a must view and is available at any time.”
John McElligott, June 09
4
84
Pay for Performance advertising is here to stay
4 Modified Rules
“A dramatic improvement over earlier models”
John McElligott, June 09
85
Tip: Measure things … in detail … regularly … Keep on top of your metrics Here are some of ours Visits, Minutes, Unique Visitors, Direct Traffic, ARPU, RPM, CPC, CTR … What about your competitors? BUT!!! Beware of extrapolation: What game-changers are possible, or even likely? How can you guard against negative ones? How can you take advantage of positive ones? John McElligott, June 09
86
Tip: It’s a great time to hire
John McElligott, June 09
87
Tip: Online Advertising - bigger in 2010
John McElligott, June 09
88
Tip: We all have to be capable of trusting our own judgement
"Don't be buffaloed by experts and elites. Experts often possess more data than judgment. Elites can become so inbred that they bleed to death as soon as they are nicked by the real world." - General Colin Powell John McElligott, June 09
89
Compete and Win! Good luck!
John McElligott, June 09
90
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
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