Future Focus: Edinburgh June 11 2009

Future Focus Edinburgh June 11th 2009

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Andrew Sime

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Future Focus Dr James Bellini

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Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Twitter replyto:@futurefocus Or mention #futurefocus www.futurefocusblog.com 2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Richard Farleigh

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Ned Kelly

Interest Rates

Taming The Lion “A tour de force of common sense investing.” Tom Stevenson Daily Telegraph

Sir Alexander Fleming The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 1945

Igloo Thermo-Logistics

Future Focus

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Future Realities Focus

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What's Great about the “Great Recession”? Ronan Lyons

2009 IBM Corporation

Contents Where are we? Are things that bad? How did we get here? Are 'green shoots' in place? Some things never change...

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Contents Where are we? Are things that bad? How did we get here? Are 'green shoots' in place? Some things never change...

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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The recession will wipe out an estimated $50trn of global GDP by 2014 In 2007, the IMF expected world economy was expected to grow from $60trn in 2006 to $90trn by 2014 With the world economy growing by just 4% - not 16% - between 2007 and 2010, the world economy will be worth less than $80trn in 2014

Global GDP growth, 2008-2012 IMF Estimates from 2007 and 2009 6 5 4 3 2

All major economies are expected to contract this year

1

More open economies are generally being hit more – as are richer ones

-1

0 2009e 2007e

-2 2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, 2007 and 2009 Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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In the UK, almost 1m households are now in negative equity 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 York/Humber East Anglia South-East West Midlands Northern East Midlands Greater London South-West North West

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

Wales

Scotland Northern Ireland

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Like other small open economies, Scotland has proved vulnerable It's estimated that Scotland's economy will shrink 3.1% this year and see no growth in 2010, before weak growth restarts in 2011 This puts Scotland a year behind the UK average of -3.8% in 2009 and +1.2% in 2010

The Scottish PMI has been below 50 – i.e. economic activity has been contracting – for 14 months in a row The reading for May was 46.1, up from 36.1 in February and comparable to May 2008

Estimates of employment suggest that 2008 job levels may only return in 2017, with unemployment hitting 230,000 by 2011 Financial services employment may be particular hit over the coming two years Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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This recession has shattered some myths of the early 21st Century “The new global financial system does not require a new level of surveillance” The recession has made entire models of finance disappear, as well as bringing about a global re-evaluation of risk and widespread nationalization of banks Pervasive crashes in stock and housing markets starting in 2007 have destroyed anything up to 30% of global wealth

“Emerging markets have enough economic strength to decouple from the OECD” The widespread economic contraction in developed economies has been accompanied by a huge slowdown in growth in emerging markets

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Contents Where are we? Are things that bad? How did we get here? Are 'green shoots' in place? Some things never change...

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Measured by job losses, recessions up to the 1980s were short and sharp ― US as the bellwether economy for the OECD ― Recessions were frequent in the post-war era up to the 1980s

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Since then recessions have been getting less frequent, milder... and longer ― Since the 1980s, recessions have become more once-a-decade episodes ― The early 1990s recession was long – but not severe in terms of job losses

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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The “dot bomb” recession was particularly long, in terms of job recovery ― The dot.com bubble created an unsustainable amount of jobs ― It took almost five years for private sector employment to recover

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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This recession combines the worst of the different post-war recessions ― Jobs losses have been as intense as any post-war recession ― It's likely to be the longest postwar recession, barring rapid employment growth

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Globally, trade and output have fallen at least as much as in the 1930s

Source: O'Rourke & Eichengreen, http://bit.ly/korbe Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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The severity of the crisis has led to an unprecedented policy response

Source: O'Rourke & Eichengreen, http://bit.ly/korbe Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Contents Where are we? Are things that bad? How did we get here? Are 'green shoots' in place? Some things never change...

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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How did we get here? To some extent, the world economy was a victim of its success The crisis could not have happened if there had not been a long period of high growth and low levels and volatility in real interest rates Nonetheless, there was a market failure at the core of the global economic recession, due to policy failures Financial regulation did not keep up pace with innovations in financial services, meaning regulators could not track risk or stop flawed incentives Macroeconomic policies did not take into account the build-up of systemic risks in the financial system and in housing markets The global regulatory architecture and surveillance system was fragmented, which compounded the inability to see vulnerabilities and interconnections

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Contents Where are we? Are things that bad? How did we get here? Are 'green shoots' in place? Some things never change...

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Confidence and activity are returning... slowly US - manuf

UK - manuf

US - services

Eurozone -manuf

UK - services

Eurozone - services

65 60

Growth

55 50 45

Decline

40 35

r-0

9

Scotland: 44.4

Ap

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-0 8 ct O

8 Ju l-0

8 Ap r-0

n08 Ja

-0 7 O ct

7 Ju l-0

7 Ap r-0

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6 -0 ct O

6 Ju l-0

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n-

06

30

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Each region faces its own growth challenges and opportunities Where will growth come from?

USA

Europe

Asia

Business

Company balance sheets in good shape pre-recession... vigorous cost cutting since

Business - and consumers particularly dependent on bank lending

Shift towards domestic consumption and welfare systems likely to offset trade's weaker growth contribution

Demographics

Retirement of baby-boomers... USA will need to remain open to migration in the future as it has in the past

Population at work is shrinking... rapidly in some countries

Rapidly growing populations in most countries – China and Japan ageing very fast though

Banking

Major problems remain in banking Concerns over transparency of banks Lessons from 1980s and 1990s mean system but some signs of confidence and ability to develop Europe-wide financial system in good shape returning solutions

Government

Significant fiscal boost in short-term... Administrative burden and red-tape A lot of countries are in catch-up, but the shift to bigger government is an issue for business... being tackled with significant infrastructure likely to last by the EU head-on programmes

Other

Huge variety between large and small, A very flexible economy, close trading rich and poor across the 40+ Major environmental challenges links with Asian economies countries 77 / x

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Contents Where are we? Are things that bad? How did we get here? Are 'green shoots' in place? Some things never change...

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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There remain significant opportunities for alert and agile business Some of the golden rules of business apply even more so in recession than before Develop a strategy on innovation to differentiate from competition, and meeting clients' requirements at the lowest cost Maintain corporate brand and behaviour to attract and retain clients... and also staff and investors Leverage technological possibilities to enable an ambitious strategy for emerging markets Agility in identifying and capitalising on new opportunities

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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While recession has shattered some beliefs, others remain firmly in place “There are always opportunities to establish or expand” Inc.com identifies almost 20 industries and activities in demand They range from small flexible activities (such as home healthcare, niche consulting and repair services) to large industries (including education and construction) Some are staples – like fast-casual dining and temporary staffing – while others are hi-tech or green-collar, such as cloud computing, education technology and energy “Technology is a game-changer” In the dot.com collapse, belief in the potential of ICT to change our world was shaken In the current recession, faith in ICT is – if anything – stronger, as policymakers and business people see how it can cut costs, inform decisions, and change business models

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Technology really is flattening the business landscape Disruptive technologies do not care whether it's boom or bust

Scotland's most popular brands on Twitter

At the height of the boom, Facebook grew from 14m users in mid-2006 to 27m users by mid-2007 At the height of the bust, Twitter grew from 0.5m users to 4.5m users over the course of 2008 There are over 40,000 Scottish users of Twitter – the most popular are dominated by SMEs

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Thank you For more, see:

www.ronanlyons.com

Ronan Lyons – Economist June 11, 2009

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Future Realities Focus

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Future Focus In the Future We’ll All Be Older Professor David James

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Firms get out of shape in the good times Recessions force us to get back into shape Treat everyday as if you were in a recession

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What‘s Your Core Competence? 86 / x

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3.0bn 87 / x

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we‘re addressing a new

Breed of customers

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All businesses are liars....

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the media revolution we are talking to a new

Breed of customer...

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we are talking about

DIY MEDIA

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garage influentials

curators of style

Generation C(ontent)

Micro-Celebrities 92 / x

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Who are the world’s most trusted brands

? 93 / x

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you &

me

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Thank-You [email protected] 07710 754017 95 / x

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Future Focus

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Future Communications Focus

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Future Focus Euan Semple

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Future Communications Focus

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Gavin Wheeldon

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A few facts... ― Fastest growing language company in the world ― 23rd Fastest growing private company in Britain ― Over 100 full time staff in 10 offices across 7 countries ― Over 14,000 linguists worldwide in our network ― Translation and Interpreting for over 3,000 clients including Nike, Google, UN and CAT

Presenter’ Name – Presenter’ Title Date

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Future Communications Focus

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The Future of Work Chris Livesey, IBM Scotland

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IBM’s transformation: An ongoing journey

1984

1992

2004

2005

2006

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Knowledge Creation in the “old world” Subject Matter Experts

Create Content for others to use

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Access to “Experts” in the “Old World”

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Changing Nature of Work Drives a Need to Connect Dispersed Workforces

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Something Changed .............

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“Experts” are everywhere

Knowledge

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And they are networked Instant Messaging File Sharing Social Bookmarking Activities Wiki's Blogs

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....the world of work is changing From Hierarchies and Teams … Exploration & Production

to Networked Communities O’Brien

Senior Vice President

Stock

Jones

Explorations

Drilling

Production

Williams

Taylor

Stock Shapiro

G&G

Petrophysical

Production

Reservoir

Cohen

Cross

Sen

O’Brien

Shapiro

Smith

Andrews

Moore

Paine

Hughes

Cohen

Paine

Cole

Miller

Kelly

Ramirez

Jones

Andrews

Smith Miller

Hughes Bell

Extended Community who leverage Cole’s knowledge to do their jobs

Williams

Cross Hussain

Cole

Taylor Hussain

Moore Kelly

Ramirez

Bell

Sen

Social Network Analysis

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IBM’s internal innovations Profiles

Persona

Bluepages

BlueGroups

Communities

Connections Profiles

Beehive

Community tools

Connections Communities

Community Map

Connections Blogs

BlogCentral

Blogs

Connections Files

Cattail

Files

Connections Dogear

Dogear

Dogear Instant Collaboration

Activities

1998

Activity Explorer

UAM

2003

Connections Activities

OpenActivities

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IBM Lotus® Connections social software Lotus Connections is social software for business that empowers you to be more innovative and helps you execute more quickly by using dynamic networks of coworkers, partners and customers.

Home page

Profiles

Blogs

Files

Communities

Activities

Wikis

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Dogear

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Future Communications Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

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Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation