Future Focus: London June 4 2009
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Future Focus London June 4th 2009
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Charles Bligh
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Dr James Bellini
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus London
Twitter replyto:@futurefocus Or mention #futurefocus www.futurefocusblog.com 2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Richard Farleigh
2009 IBM Corporation
Ned Kelly
Interest Rates
Taming The Lion “A tour de force of common sense investing.” Tom Stevenson Daily Telegraph
Sir Alexander Fleming The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 1945
Igloo Thermo-Logistics
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Realities Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Future Economic Realities Stephen Radley June 4th 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Overview World economy has started to thaw... ...but recovery likely to be halting Business environment will be more challenging... ... but create significant opportunities... ... with company fortunes becoming increasingly polarised
59 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
World economy has been in deep freeze… % change in GDP quarter on quarter 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.2 -3.6 -4.0
2008q3
%
Japan
UK
2008q4
2009q1
Italy Germany EurozoneFrance Spain
US 60 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
… but is starting to thaw Manufacturing purchasing managers index 50= no growth US
UK
Eurozone
60 55 50 45 40 35
61 / x
9 Ap r-0
9 -0 Ja n
O
ct -0
8
8 Ju l-0
r-0 8 Ap
-0 8 Ja n
7 -0 O ct
l-0 7 Ju
7 r-0 Ap
-0 7 Ja n
6 O ct -0
Ju l-0 6
6 r-0 Ap
Ja n
-0
6
30
2009 IBM Corporation
Recovery driven by End to stock reduction cycle Boost to disposable incomes from falling costs Low interest rates Massive fiscal intervention Signs that support for bank lending is starting to work
62 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
But thawing out will leave a major mopping up exercise Recessions associated with credit crises tend to be more severe with longer lasting effects Large overhang of bank debt Households need to rebuild balance sheets Action needed to address ballooning public sector deficits World trade system will take time to get functioning normally Inflation likely to remain low for some time
63 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Rebuilding Balance Sheets Likely to be Long Process UK Personal Savings ratio
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
64 / x
3
20 0
7
1
20 0
6
3 4 20 0
1
20 0
3
3
20 0
1
1
20 0
0
3
19 9
8
1 19
97
3 5
19 9
19
94
1
3
19
92
1
19 9
1
3
19
89
1 19
88
3 86
19
19
85
-2
1
0
2009 IBM Corporation
Key questions Can world economy return to past trend growth rates? Where will growth in the world economy come from? What will be the major growth markets? How serious are the dangers to business from increased protectionism, growing regulation and deglobalisation of finance? What will business need to do to thrive in this changed environment?
65 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Trend growth rates Cutbacks in investment could weaken innovation and productivity growth But recession creates opportunity and imperative to change practices Working populations shrinking... ... but hit to wealth creates incentives to work longer Increased government role in economy creates danger of misallocation of resources Regulation likely to stifle financial innovation Constraints on public infrastructure spending
66 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Where will growth come from? United States - Company balance sheets in good shape pre-recession - With vigorous cost cutting since then - Major problems remain in banking system but some signs of confidence returning - Significant fiscal boost in short-term - With shift to bigger government likely to be lasting - Major advatages from flexible economy and close trading links with Asian economies
67 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Where will growth come from? Asia - Increasingly confident and trading amongst itself - Wide differences in performance both in short and long-term - Lessons from late 80s mean financial system in good shape - Shift towards domestic consumption supported by widening of welfare systems - Partially conmpensating for weaker contributon from trade - Many nations still in catch-up phase with significant infrastructure programmes in train - Major environmental challenges
68 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Where will growth come from? Europe - Concerns over transparency of banks and ability to develop Europe-wide solutions - Consumers and companies particularly dependent on bank lending - Working populations shrinking - Business still more regulated than in other parts of the world but growing evidence of companies working round this - Widely varied performance across Central and Eastern Europe but some nations face similar issues to late 80s Asian Tigers
69 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What will be the major growth markets Climate and environment - Low carbon energy, products and promoters of energy efficiency - Growing importance of energy efficiency - Significant winners and losers - Opportunities in emerging economies but global agreement uncertain - Resource efficiency a growing area - Demographic change - Strategic security
70 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What are the dangers to business? Regulation - Some shift in sentiment away from free market approach - Increased pressure for regulation - Potential for voluntary approach in next Parliament Global trade and finance flows - Public statements positive but signs of creeping protectionism - Potential significant impact on supply chains - Recent major shift away from global finance - But longer term finance will be drawn to highest returns though return to ``normal`` may be slow
71 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What does business need to do to thrive? Systematic focus on innovation to differentiate from competition and combine high quality with low cost Corporate reputation and behaviour increasing critical to attracting and retaining key staff and customers Ambitious and coherent approach to exploiting opportunities in emerging markets Agility in identifying and capitalising on new opportunities
72 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Key messages Worse could well be over But major problems to address and high degree of uncertainty Growth likely to be slower But business can have major influence on business environment and outlook Significant opportunities for companies who are alert and fast moving
73 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Realities Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus In the Future We’ll All Be Older Professor David James
2009 IBM Corporation
Firms get out of shape in the good times Recessions force us to get back into shape Treat everyday as if you were in a recession
76 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What‘s Your Core Competence? 77 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
3.0bn 78 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
we‘re addressing a new
Breed of customers
79 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
All businesses are liars....
80 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
the media revolution we are talking to a new
Breed of customer...
81 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
we are talking about
DIY MEDIA
82 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
garage influentials
curators of style
Generation C(ontent)
Micro-Celebrities 83 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Who are the world’s most trusted brands
? 84 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
you &
me
85 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Thank-You [email protected] 07710 754017 86 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Euan Semple
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
William Robins Director, Keystone Law Technology and the future of legal services
2009 IBM Corporation
Welcome
Introduction to Keystone law
Keystone’s business model
Our satellite offices
Legal experts
Central office
Overview
Lessons learnt
Future of legal services industry
Market conditions
Trends in the legal services market 2000 to 2007
Salaries up
Profits per partner up
Legal spend up
Proportion of junior lawyers up
Head count up
Average spend up
Smaller clients dropped
The legal services market today – staff
Linklaters – 270 redundancies
Allen and Overy – 250 redundancies
Baker McKenzie – 125 redundancies
DLA – 124 redundancies
Collectively 4,000 redundancies
Trainees not taken on
The legal services market today – renumeration
Cuts across the board for associates
Eversheds profits per partner – down 27%
Latham and Watkin profits per partner – down 21%
Cameron McKenna profits per partner – down 15%
Most law firms still to report
How is Keystone doing?
Turnover up 80%
25 new lawyers
Fastest growing law firm in the country
Trends in the legal market 2000 to 2007
Salaries up
Profits per partner up
Legal spend up
Proportion of junior lawyers up
Head count up
Average spend up
Smaller clients dropped
Effects of these market trends
SMEs priced out of the market
Legal bills disproportionately high
Work pushed down to juniors in the bid to increase profitability
Keystone‘s response to these market trends
Keystone was set up to offer: • Cost effective legal advice • A joined up approach • Personal lawyer/client relationships
Cost effective legal advice Break down of typical fixed costs
Staffing: • • • • • • •
Senior lawyers Junior lawyers Knowledge development lawyers Secretaries Human resources IT support Back office
Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment • Information technology • Consumables
Cost effective legal advice An assessment of the value of fixed costs to clients Break down of costs
Staffing: • • • • • • •
Senior lawyers – highly valuable Junior lawyers – valuable in part KDLs – no direct value Secretaries – valuable in part Human resources – no value IT support – no direct value Back office – no direct value
Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment – some value and in part required • Information technology – key area • Consumables - required
Cost effective legal advice – Keystone‘s approach Break down of costs
Staffing: • Senior lawyers – a priority • Junior lawyers – replace with technology • KDL’s – outsource • Secretaries – replace with technology • Human resources – not needed • IT support – outsource • Back office – streamline
Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment – dispersed and flexible solution • Information technology – targeted spend • Consumables - streamline
The results of being cost effective
Cost savings passed on to clients
Able to undercut the competition by 40 to 70%
Fixed fees to align our business with our clients
What technology does Keystone use?
The mobile office
Online and offline functionality
Some examples: • • • • • •
Web access Maximiser Gotomeeting VOIP Desk to desk video conferencing Instant messenger
Keystone‘s key lessons Using technology: • • • • •
Don’t throw money at the problem Buy technologies based on problems and opportunities Buy what you need most, first Have an IT strategy Get real use out of any technology you buy
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus The Future of Work @IBM Brendan Tutt
2009 IBM Corporation
IBM’s transformation: An ongoing journey
1984
1992
2004
2005
2006
109 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Knowledge Creation in the “old world” Subject Matter Experts
Create Content for others to use
110 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Access to “Experts” in the “Old World”
111 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Changing Nature of Work Drives a Need to Connect Dispersed Workforces
112 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Something Changed .............
113 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
“Experts” are everywhere
Knowledge
114 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
And they are networked Instant Messaging File Sharing Social Bookmarking Activities Wiki's Blogs
115 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
....the world of work is changing From Hierarchies and Teams … Exploration & Production
to Networked Communities O’Brien
Senior Vice President
Stock
Jones
Explorations
Drilling
Production
Williams
Taylor
Stock Shapiro
G&G
Petrophysical
Production
Reservoir
Cohen
Cross
Sen
O’Brien
Shapiro
Smith
Andrews
Moore
Paine
Hughes
Cohen
Paine
Cole
Miller
Kelly
Ramirez
Jones
Andrews
Smith Miller
Hughes Bell
Extended Community who leverage Cole’s knowledge to do their jobs
Williams
Cross Hussain
Cole
Taylor Hussain
Moore Kelly
Ramirez
Bell
Sen
Social Network Analysis
116 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
IBM’s internal innovations Profiles
Persona
Bluepages
BlueGroups
Communities
Connections Profiles
Beehive
Community tools
Connections Communities
Community Map
Connections Blogs
BlogCentral
Blogs
Connections Files
Cattail
Files
Connections Dogear
Dogear
Dogear Instant Collaboration
Activities
1998
Activity Explorer
UAM
2003
Connections Activities
OpenActivities
2009 117 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
IBM Lotus® Connections social software Lotus Connections is social software for business that empowers you to be more innovative and helps you execute more quickly by using dynamic networks of coworkers, partners and customers.
Home page
Profiles
Blogs
Files
Communities
Activities
Wikis
118 / x
Dogear
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Charles Bligh
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Dr James Bellini
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus London
Twitter replyto:@futurefocus Or mention #futurefocus www.futurefocusblog.com 2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Richard Farleigh
2009 IBM Corporation
Ned Kelly
Interest Rates
Taming The Lion “A tour de force of common sense investing.” Tom Stevenson Daily Telegraph
Sir Alexander Fleming The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 1945
Igloo Thermo-Logistics
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Realities Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Future Economic Realities Stephen Radley June 4th 2009 2009 IBM Corporation
Overview World economy has started to thaw... ...but recovery likely to be halting Business environment will be more challenging... ... but create significant opportunities... ... with company fortunes becoming increasingly polarised
59 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
World economy has been in deep freeze… % change in GDP quarter on quarter 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.2 -3.6 -4.0
2008q3
%
Japan
UK
2008q4
2009q1
Italy Germany EurozoneFrance Spain
US 60 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
… but is starting to thaw Manufacturing purchasing managers index 50= no growth US
UK
Eurozone
60 55 50 45 40 35
61 / x
9 Ap r-0
9 -0 Ja n
O
ct -0
8
8 Ju l-0
r-0 8 Ap
-0 8 Ja n
7 -0 O ct
l-0 7 Ju
7 r-0 Ap
-0 7 Ja n
6 O ct -0
Ju l-0 6
6 r-0 Ap
Ja n
-0
6
30
2009 IBM Corporation
Recovery driven by End to stock reduction cycle Boost to disposable incomes from falling costs Low interest rates Massive fiscal intervention Signs that support for bank lending is starting to work
62 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
But thawing out will leave a major mopping up exercise Recessions associated with credit crises tend to be more severe with longer lasting effects Large overhang of bank debt Households need to rebuild balance sheets Action needed to address ballooning public sector deficits World trade system will take time to get functioning normally Inflation likely to remain low for some time
63 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Rebuilding Balance Sheets Likely to be Long Process UK Personal Savings ratio
14 12 10 8 6 4 2
64 / x
3
20 0
7
1
20 0
6
3 4 20 0
1
20 0
3
3
20 0
1
1
20 0
0
3
19 9
8
1 19
97
3 5
19 9
19
94
1
3
19
92
1
19 9
1
3
19
89
1 19
88
3 86
19
19
85
-2
1
0
2009 IBM Corporation
Key questions Can world economy return to past trend growth rates? Where will growth in the world economy come from? What will be the major growth markets? How serious are the dangers to business from increased protectionism, growing regulation and deglobalisation of finance? What will business need to do to thrive in this changed environment?
65 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Trend growth rates Cutbacks in investment could weaken innovation and productivity growth But recession creates opportunity and imperative to change practices Working populations shrinking... ... but hit to wealth creates incentives to work longer Increased government role in economy creates danger of misallocation of resources Regulation likely to stifle financial innovation Constraints on public infrastructure spending
66 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Where will growth come from? United States - Company balance sheets in good shape pre-recession - With vigorous cost cutting since then - Major problems remain in banking system but some signs of confidence returning - Significant fiscal boost in short-term - With shift to bigger government likely to be lasting - Major advatages from flexible economy and close trading links with Asian economies
67 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Where will growth come from? Asia - Increasingly confident and trading amongst itself - Wide differences in performance both in short and long-term - Lessons from late 80s mean financial system in good shape - Shift towards domestic consumption supported by widening of welfare systems - Partially conmpensating for weaker contributon from trade - Many nations still in catch-up phase with significant infrastructure programmes in train - Major environmental challenges
68 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Where will growth come from? Europe - Concerns over transparency of banks and ability to develop Europe-wide solutions - Consumers and companies particularly dependent on bank lending - Working populations shrinking - Business still more regulated than in other parts of the world but growing evidence of companies working round this - Widely varied performance across Central and Eastern Europe but some nations face similar issues to late 80s Asian Tigers
69 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What will be the major growth markets Climate and environment - Low carbon energy, products and promoters of energy efficiency - Growing importance of energy efficiency - Significant winners and losers - Opportunities in emerging economies but global agreement uncertain - Resource efficiency a growing area - Demographic change - Strategic security
70 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What are the dangers to business? Regulation - Some shift in sentiment away from free market approach - Increased pressure for regulation - Potential for voluntary approach in next Parliament Global trade and finance flows - Public statements positive but signs of creeping protectionism - Potential significant impact on supply chains - Recent major shift away from global finance - But longer term finance will be drawn to highest returns though return to ``normal`` may be slow
71 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What does business need to do to thrive? Systematic focus on innovation to differentiate from competition and combine high quality with low cost Corporate reputation and behaviour increasing critical to attracting and retaining key staff and customers Ambitious and coherent approach to exploiting opportunities in emerging markets Agility in identifying and capitalising on new opportunities
72 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Key messages Worse could well be over But major problems to address and high degree of uncertainty Growth likely to be slower But business can have major influence on business environment and outlook Significant opportunities for companies who are alert and fast moving
73 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Realities Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus In the Future We’ll All Be Older Professor David James
2009 IBM Corporation
Firms get out of shape in the good times Recessions force us to get back into shape Treat everyday as if you were in a recession
76 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
What‘s Your Core Competence? 77 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
3.0bn 78 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
we‘re addressing a new
Breed of customers
79 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
All businesses are liars....
80 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
the media revolution we are talking to a new
Breed of customer...
81 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
we are talking about
DIY MEDIA
82 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
garage influentials
curators of style
Generation C(ontent)
Micro-Celebrities 83 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Who are the world’s most trusted brands
? 84 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
you &
me
85 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Thank-You [email protected] 07710 754017 86 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus Euan Semple
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
William Robins Director, Keystone Law Technology and the future of legal services
2009 IBM Corporation
Welcome
Introduction to Keystone law
Keystone’s business model
Our satellite offices
Legal experts
Central office
Overview
Lessons learnt
Future of legal services industry
Market conditions
Trends in the legal services market 2000 to 2007
Salaries up
Profits per partner up
Legal spend up
Proportion of junior lawyers up
Head count up
Average spend up
Smaller clients dropped
The legal services market today – staff
Linklaters – 270 redundancies
Allen and Overy – 250 redundancies
Baker McKenzie – 125 redundancies
DLA – 124 redundancies
Collectively 4,000 redundancies
Trainees not taken on
The legal services market today – renumeration
Cuts across the board for associates
Eversheds profits per partner – down 27%
Latham and Watkin profits per partner – down 21%
Cameron McKenna profits per partner – down 15%
Most law firms still to report
How is Keystone doing?
Turnover up 80%
25 new lawyers
Fastest growing law firm in the country
Trends in the legal market 2000 to 2007
Salaries up
Profits per partner up
Legal spend up
Proportion of junior lawyers up
Head count up
Average spend up
Smaller clients dropped
Effects of these market trends
SMEs priced out of the market
Legal bills disproportionately high
Work pushed down to juniors in the bid to increase profitability
Keystone‘s response to these market trends
Keystone was set up to offer: • Cost effective legal advice • A joined up approach • Personal lawyer/client relationships
Cost effective legal advice Break down of typical fixed costs
Staffing: • • • • • • •
Senior lawyers Junior lawyers Knowledge development lawyers Secretaries Human resources IT support Back office
Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment • Information technology • Consumables
Cost effective legal advice An assessment of the value of fixed costs to clients Break down of costs
Staffing: • • • • • • •
Senior lawyers – highly valuable Junior lawyers – valuable in part KDLs – no direct value Secretaries – valuable in part Human resources – no value IT support – no direct value Back office – no direct value
Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment – some value and in part required • Information technology – key area • Consumables - required
Cost effective legal advice – Keystone‘s approach Break down of costs
Staffing: • Senior lawyers – a priority • Junior lawyers – replace with technology • KDL’s – outsource • Secretaries – replace with technology • Human resources – not needed • IT support – outsource • Back office – streamline
Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment – dispersed and flexible solution • Information technology – targeted spend • Consumables - streamline
The results of being cost effective
Cost savings passed on to clients
Able to undercut the competition by 40 to 70%
Fixed fees to align our business with our clients
What technology does Keystone use?
The mobile office
Online and offline functionality
Some examples: • • • • • •
Web access Maximiser Gotomeeting VOIP Desk to desk video conferencing Instant messenger
Keystone‘s key lessons Using technology: • • • • •
Don’t throw money at the problem Buy technologies based on problems and opportunities Buy what you need most, first Have an IT strategy Get real use out of any technology you buy
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus The Future of Work @IBM Brendan Tutt
2009 IBM Corporation
IBM’s transformation: An ongoing journey
1984
1992
2004
2005
2006
109 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Knowledge Creation in the “old world” Subject Matter Experts
Create Content for others to use
110 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Access to “Experts” in the “Old World”
111 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Changing Nature of Work Drives a Need to Connect Dispersed Workforces
112 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
Something Changed .............
113 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
“Experts” are everywhere
Knowledge
114 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
And they are networked Instant Messaging File Sharing Social Bookmarking Activities Wiki's Blogs
115 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
....the world of work is changing From Hierarchies and Teams … Exploration & Production
to Networked Communities O’Brien
Senior Vice President
Stock
Jones
Explorations
Drilling
Production
Williams
Taylor
Stock Shapiro
G&G
Petrophysical
Production
Reservoir
Cohen
Cross
Sen
O’Brien
Shapiro
Smith
Andrews
Moore
Paine
Hughes
Cohen
Paine
Cole
Miller
Kelly
Ramirez
Jones
Andrews
Smith Miller
Hughes Bell
Extended Community who leverage Cole’s knowledge to do their jobs
Williams
Cross Hussain
Cole
Taylor Hussain
Moore Kelly
Ramirez
Bell
Sen
Social Network Analysis
116 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
IBM’s internal innovations Profiles
Persona
Bluepages
BlueGroups
Communities
Connections Profiles
Beehive
Community tools
Connections Communities
Community Map
Connections Blogs
BlogCentral
Blogs
Connections Files
Cattail
Files
Connections Dogear
Dogear
Dogear Instant Collaboration
Activities
1998
Activity Explorer
UAM
2003
Connections Activities
OpenActivities
2009 117 / x
2009 IBM Corporation
IBM Lotus® Connections social software Lotus Connections is social software for business that empowers you to be more innovative and helps you execute more quickly by using dynamic networks of coworkers, partners and customers.
Home page
Profiles
Blogs
Files
Communities
Activities
Wikis
118 / x
Dogear
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Communications Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
Future Focus
2009 IBM Corporation
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