Future Focus: Manchester June 9 2009

Future Focus Manchester June 9th 2009

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus David Emery

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Dr James Bellini

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Twitter replyto:@futurefocus Or mention #futurefocus www.futurefocusblog.com 2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Richard Farleigh

2009 IBM Corporation

Ned Kelly

Interest Rates

Taming The Lion “A tour de force of common sense investing.” Tom Stevenson Daily Telegraph

Sir Alexander Fleming The Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine 1945

Igloo Thermo-Logistics

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Realities Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Economic Realities Stephen Radley

2009 IBM Corporation

Overview World economy has started to thaw... ...but recovery likely to be halting Business environment will be more challenging... ... but create significant opportunities... ... with company fortunes becoming increasingly polarised

60 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

World economy has been in deep freeze… % change in GDP quarter on quarter 0.0 -0.4 -0.8 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.2 -3.6 -4.0

%

2008q3

Japan UK Italy

2008q4

Germany

2009q1

Eurozone France Spain US 61 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

… but is starting to thaw Purchasing managers index 50= no growth US - manuf

UK - manuf

US - services

Eurozone -manuf

UK - services

Eurozone - services

65 60 55 50 45 40 35

62 / x

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30

2009 IBM Corporation

Recovery driven by: End to stock reduction cycle Boost to disposable incomes from falling costs Low interest rates Massive fiscal intervention Signs that support for bank lending is starting to work

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2009 IBM Corporation

But thawing out will leave a major mopping up exercise Recessions associated with credit crises tend to be more severe with longer lasting effects Large overhang of bank debt Households need to rebuild balance sheets Action needed to address ballooning public sector deficits World trade system will take time to get functioning normally Inflation likely to remain low for some time

64 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Rebuilding Balance Sheets Likely to be Long Process UK Personal Savings ratio

14 12 10 8 6 4 2

65 / x

3

20 0

7

1

20 0

6

3 4 20 0

1

20 0

3

3

20 0

1

1

20 0

0

3

19 9

8

1 7 19 9

3

19

95

1

19 94

3

19

92

1

19 9

1

3

19

89

1 8 19 8

19

86

1

19 8

5

-2

3

0

2009 IBM Corporation

Key questions Can world economy return to past trend growth rates? Where will growth in the world economy come from? What will be the major growth markets? How serious are the dangers to business from increased protectionism, growing regulation and deglobalisation of finance? What will business need to do to thrive in this changed environment?

66 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Trend growth rates Cutbacks in investment could weaken innovation and productivity growth But recession creates opportunity and imperative to change practices Working populations shrinking... ... but hit to wealth creates incentives to work longer Increased government role in economy creates danger of misallocation of resources Regulation likely to stifle financial innovation Constraints on public infrastructure spending

67 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Where will growth come from? United States - Company balance sheets in good shape pre-recession - With vigorous cost cutting since then - Major problems remain in banking system but some signs of confidence returning - Significant fiscal boost in short-term - With shift to bigger government likely to be lasting - Major advantages from flexible economy and close trading links with Asian economies

68 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Where will growth come from? Asia - Increasingly confident and trading amongst itself - Wide differences in performance both in short and long-term - Lessons from late 80s mean financial system in good shape - Shift towards domestic consumption supported by widening of welfare systems - Partially compensating for weaker contributon from trade - Many nations still in catch-up phase with significant infrastructure programmes in train - Major environmental challenges

69 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Where will growth come from? Europe - Concerns over transparency of banks and ability to develop Europe-wide solutions - Consumers and companies particularly dependent on bank lending - Working populations shrinking - Business still more regulated than in other parts of the world but growing evidence of companies working round this - Widely varied performance across Central and Eastern Europe but some nations face similar issues to late 80s Asian Tigers

70 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

What will be the major growth markets Climate and environment - Low carbon energy, products and promoters of energy efficiency - Growing importance of energy efficiency - Significant winners and losers - Opportunities in emerging economies but global agreement uncertain - Resource efficiency a growing area - Demographic change - Strategic security

71 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

What are the dangers to business? Regulation - Some shift in sentiment away from free market approach - Increased pressure for regulation - Potential for voluntary approach in next Parliament Global trade and finance flows - Public statements positive but signs of creeping protectionism - Potential significant impact on supply chains - Recent major shift away from global finance - But longer term finance will be drawn to highest returns though return to normal may be slow

72 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

What does business need to do to thrive? Systematic focus on innovation to differentiate from competition and combine high quality with low cost Corporate reputation and behaviour increasing critical to attracting and retaining key staff and customers Ambitious and coherent approach to exploiting opportunities in emerging markets Agility in identifying and capitalising on new opportunities

73 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Key messages Worse could well be over But major problems to address and high degree of uncertainty Growth likely to be slower But business can have major influence on business environment and outlook Significant opportunities for companies who are alert and fast moving

74 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Realities Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus In the Future We’ll All Be Older Professor David James

2009 IBM Corporation

Firms get out of shape in the good times Recessions force us to get back into shape Treat everyday as if you were in a recession

77 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

What‘s Your Core Competence? 78 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

3.0bn 79 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

we‘re addressing a new

Breed of customers

80 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

All businesses are liars....

81 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

the media revolution we are talking to a new

Breed of customer...

82 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

we are talking about

DIY MEDIA

83 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

garage influentials

curators of style

Generation C(ontent)

Micro-Celebrities 84 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Who are the world’s most trusted brands

? 85 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

you &

me

86 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Thank-You [email protected] 07710 754017 87 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Communications Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus Euan Semple

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Communications Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

William Robins Director, Keystone Law Technology and the future of legal services

2009 IBM Corporation

Welcome – Technology and the future of legal services 

Introduction to Keystone Law



The arrival of the Hybrid law firm



Flexibility to offer a) stand-alone service and/or b) In-house support service



Keystone’s business model: • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Our offices in London and Manchester/satellite offices/clients offices Legal experts only, mainly City partners Central office dealing with administration and central support Clever IT platform providing the seamless service from multiple locations

Overview 

Lessons learnt



How to use technology to generate a business advantage and be disruptive



Market conditions and the rise of Keystone Law

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

What created the demand for Keystone Law? The good old days, legal services 2000 to 2007: • • • • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Salaries up Profits per partner up Legal spend up Proportion of junior lawyers up Head count up Average spend up Smaller clients dropped

The legal services market today 

Good times are gone



Press reporting redundancies across the board: • • • • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Linklaters – 270 redundancies Allen and Overy – 250 redundancies Baker McKenzie – 125 redundancies DLA – 124 redundancies Official figures suggest 4,000 redundancies Reality much higher as figures exclude trainees and other departures Not just London, Manchester has been hit hard too

The legal services market today – the “lucky ones“ 

Pay cuts across the board for associates



Eversheds profits per partner – down 27%



Latham and Watkin profits per partner – down 21%



Cameron McKenna profits per partner – down 15%



Most law firms still to report



Low moral

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

How is Keystone doing in this challenging market? 

Turnover up 80% in 2009



25 new lawyers in last 12 months (30% increase)



Fastest growing law firm in the country



Keystone has bucked the trend

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Identifying opportunity 

Easy to rise with the tide pre 2007



Much of Keystone’s growth is post 2007



Recall earlier slide on market trends: smaller clients were being dropped



Keystone recognised market undercurrents: • • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

SMEs priced out of the market Legal bills disproportionately high Work pushed down to juniors in the bid to increase profitability SME’s were frustrated Service sector no longer serving

Capitalising on opportunity 

Identifying a gap in the market is only the first step



Giving clients what they want is more of a challenge



Key message: know your market



Key to success not to have best product, but to offer clients what they need

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

The secret to Keystone’s success Using technology to gain a business advantage 

Technology is moving on



Competitors may not be using technology fully



Using technology + knowing your market = business advantage



But how to do this?

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

How to know your market 

Ask your clients what they want!



What clients tell us they want: • Cost effective legal advice • A joined up approach • Personal lawyer/client relationships



William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Now look at what is on offer to clients

Our competitors‘ services Break down of typical fixed costs – the building blocks of a traditional service 

Staffing: • • • • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Senior lawyers Junior lawyers Knowledge development lawyers Secretaries Human resources IT support Back office



Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment • Information technology • Consumables

Evaluate those building blocks Ask are these elements providing value to the client? Break down of costs 

Staffing: • • • • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Senior lawyers – highly valuable Junior lawyers – valuable in part KDLs – no direct value Secretaries – valuable in part Human resources – no value IT support – no direct value Back office – no direct value



Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment – some value and in part required • Information technology – key area • Consumables - required

Acting on the results of the evaluation 

If it adds value: • Invest in it • Improve it using technology

William Robins Director, Keystone Law



If it does not add value: • Structure round it • Outsource it to quality providers

Cost effective legal advice – Keystone‘s approach Break down of costs 

Staffing: • Senior lawyers – a priority • Junior lawyers – replace with technology • KDL’s – outsource • Secretaries – replace with technology • Human resources – not needed • IT support – outsource • Back office – streamline

William Robins Director, Keystone Law



Non-staffing: • Rent and office equipment – dispersed and flexible solution • Information technology – targeted spend • Consumables - streamline

The results of being cost effective – what our clients welcomed 

Efficiency



Experts doing what they do best



Personal tailored service



Cost savings passed on to clients



Better value than the competition by 40 to 70%



Fixed fees to align our business with our clients

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

What technology does Keystone use?  Key message: use the technology you need to address your key challenges  Our key challenges: •

How to be cost effective

•

How to deliver a seamless service from multiple locations

 What Keystone uses: • The mobile office • Online and offline IT platform • Communications technology: Web access, Gotomeeting, Huddle, VOIP, Twitter, Desk to desk video conferencing, Instant messenger

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Keystone‘s key lessons  Businesses can use technology to grow and disrupt markets  Top tips for using technology: • • • • •

William Robins Director, Keystone Law

Don’t throw money at the problem, use technology to deliver what clients really want Buy technologies to solve current and anticipated problems Buy what you need most, first Have an IT strategy aligned to the business plan Get real use out of any technology you buy

Future Communications Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus The Future of Work @IBM Paul Campion

2009 IBM Corporation

IBM’s transformation: An ongoing journey

1984

1992

2004

2005

2006

112 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Knowledge Creation in the “old world” Subject Matter Experts

Create Content for others to use

113 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Access to “Experts” in the “Old World”

114 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Changing Nature of Work Drives a Need to Connect Dispersed Workforces

115 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

Something Changed .............

116 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

“Experts” are everywhere

Knowledge

117 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

And they are networked Instant Messaging File Sharing Social Bookmarking Activities Wiki's Blogs

118 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

....the world of work is changing From Hierarchies and Teams … Exploration & Production

to Networked Communities O’Brien

Senior Vice President

Stock

Jones

Explorations

Drilling

Production

Williams

Taylor

Stock Shapiro

G&G

Petrophysical

Production

Reservoir

Cohen

Cross

Sen

O’Brien

Shapiro

Smith

Andrews

Moore

Paine

Hughes

Cohen

Paine

Cole

Miller

Kelly

Ramirez

Jones

Andrews

Smith Miller

Hughes Bell

Extended Community who leverage Cole’s knowledge to do their jobs

Williams

Cross Hussain

Cole

Taylor Hussain

Moore Kelly

Ramirez

Bell

Sen

Social Network Analysis

119 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

IBM’s internal innovations Profiles

Persona

Bluepages

BlueGroups

Communities

Connections Profiles

Beehive

Community tools

Connections Communities

Community Map

Connections Blogs

BlogCentral

Blogs

Connections Files

Cattail

Files

Connections Dogear

Dogear

Dogear Instant Collaboration

Activities

1998

Activity Explorer

UAM

2003

Connections Activities

OpenActivities

2009 120 / x

2009 IBM Corporation

IBM Lotus® Connections social software Lotus Connections is social software for business that empowers you to be more innovative and helps you execute more quickly by using dynamic networks of coworkers, partners and customers.

Home page

Profiles

Blogs

Files

Communities

Activities

Wikis

121 / x

Dogear

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Communications Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation

Future Focus

2009 IBM Corporation