Financial Sector Strategies For Public Financial Managers
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Debra C. von Koch Government Debt Issuance & Management Program
International Financial Crisis & Global Economic Recession Strategies and Tactics For Emerging Market Countries
2
OTA MISSION Strengthen public financial management and financial institutions in developing and transition countries
3
Real Economy • Impact of crisis reaching EM countries at varying speeds, with differing results • Economic growth contracting more than forecast – Demand for goods/services – Remittances – FDI – Commodity prices & exports – Tourism receipts 4
Government Finances • Cash Flow Problems – Revenues – Countercyclical/social spending – Interest rates on government debt
= Fiscal Gaps • IFI Credit • Prior Reform Efforts 5
Financial Markets • Reduced Hard Currency Inflows • Depreciating Local Currencies • Declining Official Reserves
6
Financial Markets -2 • Low Demand for New Debt • High Concentrations Foreign-Currency Denominated Debt/High FX Risk • Short Maturity Profile/High Rollover Risk
7
Response to Challenges • Accelerate Domestic Debt Market Development to Support: – Fiscal stability – Monetary policy transmission – Broader capital market development
8
Response to Challenges -2 • Update Debt Strategies • Debt Restructurings • Improve Cash Forecasting/Management • Improve Risk Analysis/Management 9
Response to Challenges -3 • Implement Reforms to Attract Domestic Savings • Enhance Transparency and Market Communication – Investors – Coordination fiscal and monetary policies
10
Thank you! Debra C. von Koch Associate Director U.S. Treasury International Affairs Office of Technical Assistance Government Debt Issuance & Management Program Email: [email protected] Website: www.treasuryota.us 11
International Financial Crisis & Global Economic Recession Strategies and Tactics For Emerging Market Countries
2
OTA MISSION Strengthen public financial management and financial institutions in developing and transition countries
3
Real Economy • Impact of crisis reaching EM countries at varying speeds, with differing results • Economic growth contracting more than forecast – Demand for goods/services – Remittances – FDI – Commodity prices & exports – Tourism receipts 4
Government Finances • Cash Flow Problems – Revenues – Countercyclical/social spending – Interest rates on government debt
= Fiscal Gaps • IFI Credit • Prior Reform Efforts 5
Financial Markets • Reduced Hard Currency Inflows • Depreciating Local Currencies • Declining Official Reserves
6
Financial Markets -2 • Low Demand for New Debt • High Concentrations Foreign-Currency Denominated Debt/High FX Risk • Short Maturity Profile/High Rollover Risk
7
Response to Challenges • Accelerate Domestic Debt Market Development to Support: – Fiscal stability – Monetary policy transmission – Broader capital market development
8
Response to Challenges -2 • Update Debt Strategies • Debt Restructurings • Improve Cash Forecasting/Management • Improve Risk Analysis/Management 9
Response to Challenges -3 • Implement Reforms to Attract Domestic Savings • Enhance Transparency and Market Communication – Investors – Coordination fiscal and monetary policies
10
Thank you! Debra C. von Koch Associate Director U.S. Treasury International Affairs Office of Technical Assistance Government Debt Issuance & Management Program Email: [email protected] Website: www.treasuryota.us 11
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