The financial crisis, networks and the future of news Rolf Rosenkranz Editor. Devex ICGFM conference. Miami. 5/19/09
The problem • Downturn in global growth • Decline in commodity prices • Tightening of credit
Francis Fukuyama
Why? • Asset prices rising unsustainably • Debt resulting from prolonged credit expansion • Inability of regulators to keep up with new financial instruments
The media IFAD. EU Financial Crisis News. Crisis Talk. IMF’s Public Financial Management blog. Economist. OECD Observer. Financial Times. Inter Press Service. Devex.
Coverage • • • •
USA: no credit for Dr. Doom South Korea: trial vs. “Minerva” Russia: “We do not have it” NL: “Withdraw cash from ATM machines while you can”
Ignorance. Lack of access. News grind.
Cause + effect Ignorance. Desensitization. Mistrust. Fear.
Pew: Bleak economic outlook causes U.S. to… Sept. Oct.
Dec.
Cut back vacation 48 % 59 % 62 % spending Change savings or investments
39 % 48 % 60 %
Adjust retirement plans
23 % 26 % 32 %
Pew: Understanding the economic situation Very well
Fairly well
Not well
Total
24 %
49 %
27 %
Men
30 %
50 %
20 %
Women 19 %
48 %
33 %
Pew: What the U.S. public knows Gov’t wants banks to… (lend more money)
83 %
Who holds most U.S. debt (China)
71 %
Timothy Geithner’s job (Treasury sec.)
58 %
Current unemployment rate (ca. 8 %)
53 %
“Considering the wall-to-wall media coverage of the financial crisis, it is startling to see how few Americans have a grasp on the most basic economic facts.” -- James Bowers. managing director. Ctr. for Economic & Entrepr’l Literacy
News coverage milestones • August: U.K., Japan and others enter crisis mode • October: Iceland financial crisis • April: London G-20 summit
Media trends Concentration. Privatization. Ad wars. Less collective bargaining. Pay decreases. Generation shift. New media. Decreasing quality.
Information = news Media = press
• • • •
Audience segment: Traditionalists 46 % of the public Older, less educated, less affluent Heavy reliance on TV news Strong interest in weather
• • • •
Audience segment: Integrators 23 % of the public Middle-aged, well-educ., affluent TV is main news source, but regularly online Strong interest in (political) news
• • • •
Audience segment: Net-newsers 13 % of the public Relatively young, well-educated, affluent, male Read political blogs > watch network news Strong interest in tech news
2008 U.S. TV news coverage • Pres. elections (ca. 3,700 mins) • Economy (ca. 2,800 mins) • International coverage (1,900 minutes) -- Tyndall Report
International coverage on U.S. TV • Iraq: 244 minutes (88 from Iraq) • Beijing Olympics: 236 minutes • Afghanistan: 126 minutes • Sichuan earthquake: 119 minutes (94 from China) -- Tyndall Report
Pew: Foreign news coverage online • 27 % of total news • Key topics: Pakistan, IsraelPalestinian Territories conflict, Zimbabwe elections • Press: 17 %
Foreign coverage Overseas bureaus closing. Reliance on wire services. More freelancers. More competition. Parachute journalism. Multimedia. Time pressure. Global audience.
Journalism’s cardinal sins • Publish easy-to-gather stories • Select safe facts and ideas • Provide “false balance” • Give audiences what they want -- Nick Davies, author, “Flat Earth News”
“News organizations will have to do more than adapt to changing technology; they will have to solve their economic problems in a manner that will benefit their customers.” -- Stuart Loory, editor, Global Journalist
Winners? Trade publications. Bloggers. Software developers. Mobile phone companies. Consultants. Nonprofit media. GlobalPost. Content sharing. Pay-per-view. Custom-tailored news. Google.
ONA: Online journos optimistic • 54 % say journalism heading down wrong track • 57 % say Internet is changing journalism values • 82 % are confident profitable business model online will be found
News sought online Weather. Science & health. International. Technology. Business & financial. Politics. Sports. Entertainment. Local.
Social media
Blogs • South Korea (92 % read, 72 % write) • Philippines (90 % read, 65 % write)
• France (78 % read, 31 % write) • Canada (56 % read, 22 % write) -- Universal McCann
Online communities • Philippines (83 %) • Brazil (75 %) • China (64 %) • United States (43 %) -- Universal McCann
Social media: The business case • Mass media • Creative consumer • Viral marketing • Human touch
Credibility
Networks • Public Expenditure Management Peer Assisted Learning Network • Jordan Professional Communities • Devex
200 major donor agencies
1 million developm ent professio nals
100,000 develop ment projects
She needs a filter
We’re learning from…
Network science “the organized knowledge of networks based on their study using the scientific method” -- National Research Council
Cesar Hidalgo
Worlds apart…
United States Kenya
[email protected] One stop Value-added Wisdom
of crowds