Dr Rui Gomes - 2009 Presentation On The Millenium Development Goals

The Millennium Development Goals: Approaches to Transformation By Rui A. Gomes 06 July 2009

Monitoring the Millennium Development Goals…

Timor-Leste: Vision 2020

Corresponding M D G

East Timor will be a democratic country with a prosperous society with adequate food, shelter and clothing for all people and a sustainable environment People will be literate, knowledgeable and skilled. They will be healthy, and live a long productive life

 

They will actively participate in economic, social and political development, promoting social equality and national unity Production and employment will increase in all sectors Living standards and services will improve for all, and income will be fairly distributed

Prices will be stable and food supplies secured. The economy and finances will be managed efficiently, transparently, and will be free from corruption The state will be based on the rule of law

The Millennium Declaration

The Millennium Declaration

0.5 0.0

Timor-Leste

1.0

Sub-Saharan Africa

100 Pacific Islands

1.5

Sub-Sahara Africa

75 Fuel Exporters

2.0

Developing Countries

50

Developing Asia

2.5

Developing Asia

25

Pacific Islands

3.0

0

Population growth, 2002-06 (in percent pa)

Fuel exporters

3.5

Timor-Leste

Population growth is high but human development indicators are low

125 150

Human Development Ranking 2008 179 (1-179, 179 is the lowest)

Human development indicators are low even in oil-producing countries 1

Norway Australia Iceland Singapore Portugal

0.9

Malaysia

0.8

Thailand Azerbaijan Philippines Indonesia VietNam Cape Verde

0.7

Sao Tome and Principe 0.6

Myanmar Cambodia Timor-Leste Sudan Papua New Guinea Nigeria Angola

0.5

0.4

Chad Mozambique Sierra Leone

0.3

0.2

Oil-producing countries

The current situation... • One in two Timorese is poor • Poverty is multidimensional and it is not just about income • Vulnerable groups are the most affected • Poverty affects men and women differently • High unemployment rate amongst youth and underemployment • Domestic violence and crime are prevalent

Mapa konoba densidade ema kiak MAP OF DENSITY OF POVERTY

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S #

#

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# # # ### # # # # ## # ## # ## ## ## # # # ### # # # ## ### # ## # # ## # # # ## # # # # # # # ## ## ### # # # # # ## ### # ## # # # # # ## ## # ## # # # # # # # # # ## # # # ## # # # # # # ## ## # # # # ### # ## # # # # # # # # ## # ## # ### # # ## ## # ### # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # ## # # ## # # # # ## ## # # ## ## # # # # # ## # # # ## ## # # # # # ## ## # ## # ## # # ## ## # # # ## # # # # ## # ## ## # ### ## ## # # # ## # ## # ### ## ### # ## ## # ## # # ## # ## #### # # # ## ## ## ## # # # # ## # # ## # # ### ## # # # ## ## # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # ### # # # # ### # # # # ### # ## # # # ## # # # # ## ## ## ## # ## # # # ## # ## # ## # # ## # ## ## ## # ### ## ###### ### # # # #### # # # # # # ## # ## # # # # # # # ### # # # # ### ## #### ## ## ## # # # # ## # # # ## ### ## # # # # ## # # # ## # # ### ## # ## ## # # ## # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # ## # # #

Baucau

Dili

Liquiçá

E

#

#

#

Lautem

Aileu

Manatuto

Ermera

Viqueque

Bobonaro

Ainaro

Manufahi

Covalima

#

# #

Densidade ema kiak Poverty Density #

Map produced by Mekong Economics Ltd and NSD for UNOPS AMCAP/OCAP Project

1 Dot = 20 people below the poverty line Ponto 1 = Ema 20 iha linya kiak nian okos For details of methodology visit http://www.mekongeconomics.com

#

Oecusse

# # # # # # # # # # #

# #

#

# #

# #

#

# # # # #

# #

# # # # ## # # # #### # ## # # # # # #

# # # ## ## # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # ## # # # # ### ## # ## # ## # # ## ## ## # ## ## ## # ## # # # ## # # # ## # # # # # ###### # # # # # # # ## # # ## # ### # ## # ## # # # ## # # ### ## ## ### # # # # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ### # # # # # ## ## # ##### # #### # # # ## ### # ## ## # # # # # # # ## # # ## ## # # # # # ## # # ## ## # ## ## ## ## # #### # # ## ## ## # # ## # # # ## ## # # # ## # ## ### ## # # ## # ## # # ## # # # # # ## # # # # # ## # # # # # ## ## # # # # # # # ## # # ### ## # # # # ## # # # ## # ## ## # # # ## ## # # ## # # # ### ## # # ## # # ## # # # # # ### # # # # # ## # # # # ### ### # ## # # # # # # # ### # # # # # # ## ## # # ### ## ## ## ## # # # ## # # # ## # ## ## ### # # # # ## # # # # # # # # ## # # # ## # ## #### # # # # ## # # # # ## # # # ## # # # # # ## ## ## # # # ### # # # # # # # # # ## # # # # # ## # ### ## # #### ### # ## # # # ## # # # # ## # # # # # ## ## # # ## # ## # # # ## # ## ## ## # # # # # ## # # # # ## # ## # # # # # ## # ## # ## # # # # ## # ## # ## # # ## ## # ## # # # # # ## # # # # ## # ## # ## ### # # # # # ## # # # # # # ## # # ## #### # ## # ## # # ### # # # # ## # # # # # # # ## # # # # ## # # # ## ## # ##### ## # ## # # # # # ## # # ## ## ## # # # # # # ## # ## #### # # # # ## ## # # # # # # # # ## ## # # ## # # # # # # # # ### #### # # # # # ## # # # ## # # ## # ### # # # ## # # # # # # # # # # ## # ## # # ### # # ## ## # ## # ## ## # ## # ## # ### ## ## # # ## ## # # # #

# # # # # # # #

# # #

## #

Timor-Leste may miss this target...

50%

36%

14%

Food security is key to achieve Goal 1...

In 2001, the children who died before they reached the age of five were 144/1000. In 2006, the rate dropped to 125/1000. The target to be reached by 2015 will be 96/1000.

Services are not down to suco and aldeia levels yet...

The possibility of an outbreak of HIV/AIDS in near future...

The incidence of malaria in Timor-Leste remains high...In 2000 the cases detected were 113/1000, and increased to 206/1000 in 2006. The targt is to bring the incidence down to 45/1000 by 2015...

Unemployment continues to be a big challenge...It is expected that the high growth rate in the domestic economy would create more job opportunities, particularly to the young...

Scaling-up for the MDGs…

Scaled-up plans to achieve the MDGs based on country needs assessments

MDG Target

Slow/little progress to date

1990

MDG BASE YEAR

2002

YEAR

2007

2015

MDG TARGET DEADLINE

FROM TECHNOCRATIC TO DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIC CHOICE FOR ACHIEVING THE MDGs EXISTING APPROACH

PROPOSED APPROACH

• • •

•

COUNTRY DRIVEN

•

FLEXIBLE PROCESS

•

EVIDENCE-BASED POLICY MAKING

•

EQUITY

•

EXPERT DRIVEN RIGID FRAMEWORK COST ESTIMATES DERIVED FROM INACCURATE MODELS ASYMMETRY

What’s next? • Stimulate the domestic economy through rural development • Invest in human capital • Invest in infrastructure • Promote peace and stability

How much it will cost to reduce income poverty? Table 1: Yearly Investment in US Dollars (million) Required to Meet Poverty Headcount Ratio Target in Rural Area

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Anti-poor growth 75.90 66.92 62.63 63.56 63.11 64.23 65.91 64.19

Neutral growth 52.06 53.18 51.74 51.97 52.27 50.31 49.00 48.35

Pro-poor growth 46.89 45.80 44.60 43.63 42.88 42.20 41.16 40.31