Scal Fire Potential

Issued:

Saturday, Nov 28, 2009

Predictive Service Areas

Updated daily by 9 AM Ytd

SC01 - Eastern Sierra SC02 - Central Sierra SC03 - Southern Sierra SC04 - Sierra Foothills SC05 - Central Valley

Legend:

SC06 - Central Coast Interior

Fuel Dryness Moist - Little or no risk for large fires. Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. Very Dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.

SC07 - Central Coast SC08 - South Coast SC09 - Western Mountains SC10 - Eastern Mountains SC11 - Southern Mountains SC12 - Lower Deserts SC13 - Eastern Deserts SC14 - Central Mojave

High Risk Days At least a 20% chance of a "Large Fire" due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and an Ignition Trigger. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event. At least a 20% chance of a new "Large Fire" or significant growth on existing fires due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and a Critical Burn Environment. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event.

Ignition Trigger



Lightning - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

W

Windy and Dry - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

Critical Burn Environment

S NOTICE: Forecast for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed below:

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SC15 - Upper Deserts SC16 - Northern Deserts





          

















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Weather Discussion: ***COLD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SIERRA AND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THIS EVENING*** ***STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON*** An area of low pressure currently over Southern California will bring well below normal temperatures and high humidity to the region today. This low pressure area will also bring scattered showers to the Sierra and scattered showers and thunderstorms to Southern California through this evening. Most foothill and mountain locations will receive between a quarter inch and a half inch of rainfall and most coastal and valley locations will receive less than a quarter inch of rainfall with this low pressure area. The snow level will be around 5,000 feet. A ridge of high pressure will build into California from the Pacific Ocean bringing a warming and drying trend Sunday and Monday. There will be strong and gusty north to east winds over the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California tonight through Monday afternoon. Winds will be 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph over the wind prone areas. Another low pressure will drop down the California Coast bringing a cooling trend and an increase in humidity Tuesday and Wednesday. This low pressure area will also bring scattered showers with light rainfall totals to the region Wednesday. Winds will be fairly light across the region Monday night through Wednesday. END/Shameson

Fire Potential Discussion: The potential for large fire will be very low or non-existent across the region today due to well below normal temperatures and high humidity. There will also be scattered showers over the Sierra and over Southern California with light rainfall amounts through this evening. The potential for large fire will increase over Southern California Sunday and Monday due to strong and gusty offshore winds. “High Risk” days are not anticipated because humidity will not be low when the winds will be at their strongest tonight through Sunday morning. Also, the light rainfall amounts over Southern California today will help alleviate the threat for large fires. The potential for large fire will decrease over Southern California Tuesday and Wednesday as winds become light and humidity increases. There will be another chance for light showers across the region Wednesday. The threat for large fire over Central California will be very low through the end of next week. Expect IA activity to be very light today before increasing a little Sunday and Monday. Expect IA activity to become very light again Tuesday through the end of next week.

CWCG Preparedness Level: CWCG Preparedness Level 3, MACS Mode 2

EASTERN SIERRA Owens Valley Ca Walker California CENTRAL SIERRA Shaver Californ

Additional Links PDF Version of this page National Map 7-Day ERC, F10, and F100 Projections

SOUTHERN SIERRA Cedar Grove Ca Park Ridge Cali Sugarloaf SIERRA FOOTHILLS Mariposa Califo Fancher Creek C Catheys Valley CENTRAL COAST MTNS & VLYS Hernandez Calif Parkfield Calif SOUTH COAST Case Springs Ca SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS Fawnskin DESERTS Yucca Valley Ca

7-Day Temperature and Humidity Projections Product Description and Explanation Page