Scal Fire Potential

Issued:

Wednesday, Nov 11, 2009

Predictive Service Areas

Updated daily by 9 AM Ytd

SC01 - Eastern Sierra SC02 - Central Sierra SC03 - Southern Sierra SC04 - Sierra Foothills SC05 - Central Valley

Legend:

SC06 - Central Coast Interior

Fuel Dryness Moist - Little or no risk for large fires. Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. Very Dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.

SC07 - Central Coast SC08 - South Coast SC09 - Western Mountains SC10 - Eastern Mountains SC11 - Southern Mountains SC12 - Lower Deserts SC13 - Eastern Deserts SC14 - Central Mojave

High Risk Days At least a 20% chance of a "Large Fire" due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and an Ignition Trigger. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event. At least a 20% chance of a new "Large Fire" or significant growth on existing fires due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and a Critical Burn Environment. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event.

Ignition Trigger



Lightning - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

Critical Burn Environment

W

Windy and Dry - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

SC15 - Upper Deserts SC16 - Northern Deserts

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Weather Discussion: Skies will be mostly cloudy today as abundant high clouds continue to stream into the region. Although temperatures will be slightly above normal for this time of year, highs today will be 5-8 degrees cooler than yesterday due to the cloud cover. The flow near the surface will turn onshore this afternoon, which will allow further cooling across the coastal areas. Along with cooler temperatures, higher relative humidities can be expected this afternoon near the coast, but further inland, minimum relative humidity levels will be about the same as yesterday with many areas seeing readings in the teens. Winds will be light once again. Tomorrow, a weak system will move through central California bringing light showers and cooler weather to the region. Nearly all of the precipitation will fall north of Point Conception where a quarter to a half inch of rain will be possible in the Sierras and the central coast. Further south, little, if any rain is expected. It will be significantly cooler with highs around 15 degrees cooler for Thursday through Saturday along with higher relative humidity levels. The front will quickly move east of the region Friday, but strong north winds are expected to develop behind this system. Across the northern deserts, and the central coast some wind gusts to 40 mph look possible Friday into Saturday. Lighter winds are expected elsewhere. The flow will turn offshore Saturday night into Sunday, which will lead to warmer weather with lower relative humidity Sunday and Monday. END/RK

Fire Potential Discussion: Generally, fuels north of Point Conception are relatively moist and are experiencing some level of green up. Some light wetting rains can be expected in the Sierras and the central coast Thursday, but nearly all of the rain will miss southern California. However, cooler and more humid weather will keep the threat of large fire growth to a minimum through Saturday, even in areas which have yet to experience substantial rainfall this season. Thus, IA is expected to be at a minimum the next several days. Conditions are expected to turn warmer and drier for Sunday into the first half of next week.

CWCG Preparedness Level: CWCG Preparedness Level 3, MACS Mode 2

NOTICE: Forecast for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed below:

Wed

Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov 17

EASTERN SIERRA Owens Valley Ca Walker California CENTRAL SIERRA Shaver Californ

Additional Links PDF Version of this page National Map 7-Day ERC, F10, and F100 Projections

SOUTHERN SIERRA Cedar Grove Ca Park Ridge Cali Sugarloaf SIERRA FOOTHILLS Mariposa Califo Fancher Creek C Catheys Valley CENTRAL COAST MTNS & VLYS Hernandez Calif Parkfield Calif SOUTH COAST Case Springs Ca SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS Fawnskin DESERTS Yucca Valley Ca

7-Day Temperature and Humidity Projections Product Description and Explanation Page