Scal Fire Potential

Issued:

Wednesday, Nov 25, 2009

Predictive Service Areas

Updated daily by 9 AM Ytd

SC01 - Eastern Sierra SC02 - Central Sierra SC03 - Southern Sierra SC04 - Sierra Foothills SC05 - Central Valley

Legend:

SC06 - Central Coast Interior

Fuel Dryness Moist - Little or no risk for large fires. Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. Very Dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.

SC07 - Central Coast SC08 - South Coast SC09 - Western Mountains SC10 - Eastern Mountains SC11 - Southern Mountains SC12 - Lower Deserts SC13 - Eastern Deserts SC14 - Central Mojave

High Risk Days At least a 20% chance of a "Large Fire" due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and an Ignition Trigger. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event. At least a 20% chance of a new "Large Fire" or significant growth on existing fires due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and a Critical Burn Environment. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event.

Ignition Trigger




Lightning - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

Critical Burn Environment

W

Windy and Dry - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

SC15 - Upper Deserts SC16 - Northern Deserts

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Weather Discussion: ***LOCALLY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO EAST WINDS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING*** Surface high pressure centered over Idaho will maintain locally strong and gusty north to east winds over the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California through Thursday morning. Winds will continue to be mainly 12 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph over the wind prone areas. A ridge of high pressure aloft will also continue to build into California from the Pacific Ocean bringing a little warmer temperatures and very low humidity to most of the region through Thursday. Temperatures over the warmer valley locations will stay in the 80s and minimum humidity will stay in the single digits and teens. A Pacific trough will move inland into the Pacific Northwest bringing cooler temperatures and higher humidity to the region Friday and Saturday. A ridge of high pressure will build into California from the Pacific Ocean bringing a warming trend and very low humidity Sunday through early next week. There will be locally strong and gusty northerly winds over the south coast of Santa Barbara and over the Grapevine Friday night through Saturday morning and there is still a potential for widespread strong and gusty north to east winds over the mountains and below the canyons and passes of Southern California Saturday through Monday morning. At this time, winds still look to be 20 to 40 mph with gusts to 60 mph over the wind prone areas. END/Shameson

Fire Potential Discussion: The potential for large fire will continue to increase over Southern California through Thursday due to gusty offshore winds, low humidity, and warm temperatures. There will not be a high risk for large fire because winds will not be strong or widespread enough to meet the criteria. The potential for large fire will decrease Friday as temperatures cool, humidity increases, and winds become onshore. The large fire threat will increase over Southern California once again Saturday through Monday due to strong offshore winds and low humidity. At this time, winds still look to be widespread and strong so if future models continue to advertise this event at current strength “High Risk” days will be added to some Southern California PSA’s for Sunday when winds will be at their strongest. The potential for large fire will be low over Central California through early next week. Expect IA activity to be light to moderate through early next week.

CWCG Preparedness Level: NOTICE: Forecast for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed below:

Wed

Nov 24 Nov 25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov 28 Nov 29 Nov 30

CWCG Preparedness Level 3, MACS Mode 2

EASTERN SIERRA Owens Valley Ca Walker California CENTRAL SIERRA Shaver Californ

Additional Links PDF Version of this page National Map 7-Day ERC, F10, and F100 Projections

SOUTHERN SIERRA Cedar Grove Ca Park Ridge Cali Sugarloaf SIERRA FOOTHILLS Mariposa Califo Fancher Creek C Catheys Valley CENTRAL COAST MTNS & VLYS Hernandez Calif Parkfield Calif SOUTH COAST Case Springs Ca SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS Fawnskin DESERTS Yucca Valley Ca

7-Day Temperature and Humidity Projections Product Description and Explanation Page