Scal Fire Potential

Issued:

Thursday, Nov 19, 2009

Predictive Service Areas

Updated daily by 9 AM Ytd

SC01 - Eastern Sierra SC02 - Central Sierra SC03 - Southern Sierra SC04 - Sierra Foothills SC05 - Central Valley

Legend:

SC06 - Central Coast Interior

Fuel Dryness Moist - Little or no risk for large fires. Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. Very Dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.

SC07 - Central Coast SC08 - South Coast SC09 - Western Mountains SC10 - Eastern Mountains SC11 - Southern Mountains SC12 - Lower Deserts SC13 - Eastern Deserts SC14 - Central Mojave

High Risk Days At least a 20% chance of a "Large Fire" due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and an Ignition Trigger. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event. At least a 20% chance of a new "Large Fire" or significant growth on existing fires due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and a Critical Burn Environment. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event.

Ignition Trigger




Lightning - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

Critical Burn Environment

W

Windy and Dry - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

SC15 - Upper Deserts SC16 - Northern Deserts

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Weather Discussion: A weak ridge of high pressure will build into California from the Pacific Ocean bringing warmer temperatures and low humidity to the region today. A couple of Pacific troughs will bring cooler temperatures and higher humidity Friday through this weekend. The first trough will bring scattered showers to Central California Friday afternoon and Friday night. Over Central California, most foothill and mountain locations will receive between a quarter inch and a half inch of rainfall and most coastal and valley locations will receive less than a quarter inch of rainfall with this trough. The snow level will be around 6,000 feet. There will be no rainfall over Southern California. This trough will also bring gusty south to west winds to the mountains and deserts Friday. The second trough will bring a few light showers to the far northern parts of Central California Sunday. The snow level will be around 7,000 feet. A ridge of high pressure will build into California from the Pacific Ocean bringing a warming trend and a decrease in humidity to the region Monday through the middle of next week. There will be locally strong and gusty northerly winds over the south coast of Santa Barbara and over the Grapevine Sunday night through Monday morning. END/Shameson

Fire Potential Discussion: The potential for large fire will remain low to very low over the entire region through this weekend. The potential for large fire will increase a little over Southern California Monday through the middle of next week as temperatures warm and humidity becomes low. Expect very light IA activity over the region through this weekend as temperatures cool and humidity increases. Scattered showers over Central California Friday afternoon and night will keep fire activity to a minimum for several days over this part of the region. Expect IA activity to increase over Southern California Monday through the middle of next week as temperatures become above normal and humidity becomes low.

CWCG Preparedness Level: CWCG Preparedness Level 3, MACS Mode 2

NOTICE: Forecast for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed below:

Thu

Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov 25

EASTERN SIERRA Owens Valley Ca Walker California CENTRAL SIERRA Shaver Californ

Additional Links PDF Version of this page National Map 7-Day ERC, F10, and F100 Projections

SOUTHERN SIERRA Cedar Grove Ca Park Ridge Cali Sugarloaf SIERRA FOOTHILLS Mariposa Califo Fancher Creek C Catheys Valley CENTRAL COAST MTNS & VLYS Hernandez Calif Parkfield Calif SOUTH COAST Case Springs Ca SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS Fawnskin DESERTS Yucca Valley Ca

7-Day Temperature and Humidity Projections Product Description and Explanation Page