Scal Fire Potential

Issued:

Monday, Oct 26, 2009

Predictive Service Areas SC01 - Eastern Sierra SC02 - Central Sierra SC03 - Southern Sierra SC04 - Sierra Foothills SC05 - Central Valley

Legend:

SC06 - Central Coast Interior

Fuel Dryness Moist - Little or no risk for large fires. Dry - Low risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event. Very Dry - Low/Moderate risk of large fires in the absence of a "High Risk" event.

SC07 - Central Coast SC08 - South Coast SC09 - Western Mountains SC10 - Eastern Mountains SC11 - Southern Mountains SC12 - Lower Deserts SC13 - Eastern Deserts SC14 - Central Mojave

High Risk Days At least a 20% chance of a "Large Fire" due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and an Ignition Trigger. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event. At least a 20% chance of a new "Large Fire" or significant growth on existing fires due to a combination of either "Dry" or "Very Dry" fuel dryness and a Critical Burn Environment. High Risk Days will include a symbol indicating the type of trigger event.

Ignition Trigger



Lightning - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

Critical Burn Environment

W

Windy and Dry - Defined differently in each Predictive Service Area. See "Product Description and Explanation Page" for details.

SC15 - Upper Deserts SC16 - Northern Deserts

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Weather Discussion: It will continue to be breezy in some of the passes and canyons this morning with some local northeast winds of 25-35 mph possible in favored areas through mid-morning. During the afternoon, winds will be much lighter throughout the region. The warm weather will last one more day with highs in the inland valleys ranging from 85-95 again today with minimum relative humidity in the single digits. A dry cold front will move through the state Tuesday, resulting in much cooler temperatures and very strong north winds for the midweek timeframe. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will generally be in the 60s with 40 degree readings in the mountains. North winds of 50-60 mph can be expected in the mountains Tuesday and Tuesday night, with some gusts to 70 possible in San Marcos Pass above Santa Barbara as well as across the Grapevine. Some gusts to 40-45 mph will be likely in coastal areas as well as inland valley areas such as northern sections of the San Fernando Valley. However, due to northerly orientation of the winds, relative humidity readings should stay in the 15-20% range throughout the duration of the strong wind event over most areas. Additionally, a few showers will be possible in the Tehachapi Mountains and the eastern Sierras Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, strong northeasterly offshore wind event previously forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday is no longer expected. Winds will decrease somewhat Wednesday, but it will remain cool and breezy through Thursday. Warmer weather with less wind is expected this weekend. END/RK

Fire Potential Discussion: The near-term fire potential will decrease this morning as winds become light by afternoon. However, the respite from the strong winds will be brief as a prolonged period of strong north winds is expected over the region. The potential for large fire growth will be highest this week in some of the passes in northern sections of the Angeles and Los Padres National Forest where the strong north winds will coincide with areas which received little rainfall earlier this month. However, the cold front responsible for the strong winds will generate a modest increase in relative humidity over many areas, particularly in the mountains with north aspects above 5,000 feet. Wind driven fire behavior should be expected with any new starts due to the strong winds, but this will be mitigated somewhat by the higher RH than was experienced over this past weekend. The potential for large fire growth will decrease for Friday and beyond as wind become lighter.

CWCG Preparedness Level: NOTICE: Forecast for the following PSA's may be unavailable or unrepresentative of actual conditions due to missing observations from the stations listed below:

Updated daily by 9 AM

CWCG Preparedness Level 3, MACS Mode 2

EASTERN SIERRA Owens Valley Ca Walker California CENTRAL SIERRA Shaver Californ

Additional Links PDF Version of this page National Map 7-Day ERC, F10, and F100 Projections

SOUTHERN SIERRA Cedar Grove Ca Park Ridge Cali Sugarloaf SIERRA FOOTHILLS Mariposa Califo Fancher Creek C Catheys Valley CENTRAL COAST MTNS & VLYS Hernandez Calif Parkfield Calif SOUTH COAST Case Springs Ca SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS Fawnskin DESERTS Yucca Valley Ca

7-Day Temperature and Humidity Projections Product Description and Explanation Page