Nh-02: Sept Anzalone-liszt Poll

September 22, 2008 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone / Marc Silveman Re: Summary of Polling Results in New Hampshire CD-02 Recent polling confirms that with six weeks until the election, Congressman Paul Hodes has a commanding lead over Republican challenger Jennifer Horn. Hodes has good name identification and a positive job rating. Hodes is also being helped by a political environment that favors a Democratic candidate: George Bush is wildly unpopular, Barack Obama is leading John McCain in the race for President, and former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen leads incumbent Republican Senator John Sununu in the race for U.S. Senate. Current Vote •

Hodes leads Horn by 18 points on the current vote (50% Hodes / 32% Horn / 4% Lapointe).

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Hodes is quickly solidifying his support among self-identified Democrats (83% Hodes / 5% Horn) while only 72% of self-identified Republicans support Horn.

Candidate Support Measures •

Voters have a favorable opinion of Hodes (41% favorable / 26% unfavorable) and give him a positive job rating (47% positive / 25% negative).

Political Environment •

The generic ballot favors a Democratic candidate for Congress by 15 points (51% Democratic / 36% Republican), giving Hodes a solid base of support six weeks before election day.

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George Bush receives a 39-point net-unfavorable rating here (30% favorable / 69% unfavorable), including a 58% very unfavorable rating.

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Barack Obama leads John McCain by 13 points in the race for President (52% Obama / 39% McCain). Obama’s lead has grown by seven points since May 2008 (47% Obama / 41% McCain).

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Former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen has a 17-point lead over incumbent Republican John Sununu (55% Shaheen / 38% Sununu).

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted N=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in NH CD-02. Interviews were conducted between September 14-18, 2008. Respondents were selected at random, with interviews apportioned geographically based on past voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error for these results is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.