Il-11: Anzalone-liszt Sept Poll

September 18, 2008 To: Interested Parties Fr: John Anzalone / Jeff Liszt Re: Summary of Polling in Illinois CD-11 Democrat Debbie Halvorson continues to lead the open-seat race for Congress in Illinois’ 11th District, but this Republican-held seat remains extremely competitive, and Halvorson will need significant financial resources to maintain her lead against multi-millionaire Marty Ozinga. Halvorson currently leads Ozinga by 8 points •

Halvorson leads Ozinga by a 43% to 35% margin, with Green Party candidate Jason Wallace at 6%. Her lead is 8 points, but she still needs several points of expansion in order to win.

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Halvorson has maintained her vote share since May (43% Halvorson / 32% Ozinga). The small amount of movement in Ozinga’s vote is within the poll’s margin of error, in spite of his strong spending on television ads (more than $400,000) and his extensive direct mail program, which has included more than ten pieces and has been heavily negative.

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Halvorson’s television buy is doing a good job of expanding her personal popularity, but she needs the resources to sustain it. She currently receives a 38% favorable / 20% unfavorable rating – an increase of 14 points in her favorable rating since May. While Halvorson’s ratio of favorables to unfavorables is nearly 2:1, Ozinga’s unfavorable rating is nearly as high as his favorable rating (28% favorable / 22% unfavorable).

The political environment is competitive, and Halvorson must have the resources to continue communicating in order to win •

The generic ballot in this district is virtually even (38% Democrat / 40% Republican). Those numbers are better than you’d expect in a Republican-held district, but a Democrat like Halvorson must still build personal definition and strength in order to win. Paid communications in this expensive media market are essential.

Anzalone Liszt Research conducted n=500 live telephone interviews with likely 2008 general election voters in Illinois CD-11. Interviews were conducted between September 14-16, 2008. Respondents were selected at random with interviews apportioned geographically based on expected voter turnout. Expected margin of sampling error is ±4.4% with a 95% confidence level.