Or-sen Benenson Poll Sept 2008

B E N E N S O N S T R A T E G Y G R O U P 1000 Potomac Street, N.W., Suite 420 Washington, D.C. 20007 T E L

To: From: Date: Re:

2 0 2

3 3 9

6 0 6 0

Jeff Merkley Campaign Team Pete Brodnitz September 11, 2008 Poll of Likely Oregon Voters

Democrat Jeff Merkley has pulled ahead of incumbent Republican Senator Gordon Smith, despite being outspent by Smith by $3 million in direct campaign expenditures and by at least $1.5 million when spending by outside groups is included. In the race for Senate, Merkley leads by 2% - gaining 5 points in the past month, while Smith has lost 6% in the same time frame. Currently, 43% of Oregon voters support Merkley, 41% choose Smith, 6% support Brownlow, and 10% are undecided. In the November election for U.S. Senate if the candidates were … for whom would you vote? [IF UNDECIDED] Which candidate do you lean toward? June ‘08

Aug ‘08

Sept ‘08

∆

Difference (Merkley – Smith)

-10

-9

+2

Democrat Jeff Merkley Republican Gordon Smith Constitution Party Dave Brownlow Don’t Know

38 48 4 9

38 47 4 11

43 41 6 10

+11 +5 -6 +2 -1

During the same period, support for Obama has been steady – 51% supported him in August and 49% support him in our current poll. Smith has failed to convince voters he can bring the change the country needs. One-third (32%) gives him a positive job rating, while 61% rate his performance negatively. Further, only 15% of undecided voters rate Smith’s job performance as Senator as excellent or good, and 70% rate it as fair or poor. How would you rate the job Gordon Smith has been doing as Senator?

Difference Total Excellent/Good Excellent Good Total Fair/Poor Fair Poor Don’t know

All

Undecideds

-29

-55

32 5 28 61 43 19 6

15 0 15 70 50 20 15

This marks a steady erosion of Smith’s job performance that was net negative at the end of last year and has become far worse. Between August and September Smith’s positive job rating dropped by 4%, and his negative rating increased by 2%. The Benenson Strategy Group conducted 702 interviews statewide with likely voters September 7-9, 2008. The margin of error is ±3.7%. The Benenson Strategy Group’s clients include Governor Tim Kaine (VA), Senator Jim Webb (VA), and Senator Robert Menendez (NJ). Peter Brodnitz, who conducted this survey, was named “Pollster of the Year” by the American Association of Political Consultants last year for his work for Kaine, Webb and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. It is a bi-partisan award given to one pollster every two years. PAID FOR BY JEFF MERKLEY FOR OREGON

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