Poll Report

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SUBJECT: 2010 Cook County Democratic Primary Poll This Chicago Tribune Poll is based on interviews of confirmed registered voters likely to vote in the February 2nd Cook County Democratic primary. Interviewing was conducted December 2nd to the 8th. The sample involved 502 Cook County Democratic primary voters, for a potential margin of error of 4.4% at the 95% level of confidence.

DEMOCRATIC COOK COUNTY BOARD PRESIDENT PRIMARY Incumbent Todd Stroger is best known - but has an extremely negative opinion ratio, 17% to 61%. Name ID/Opinion; Dec. 2-8, 2009 100% 80% 60% 40% 20%

98%

Heard of

91%

Favorable

62%

61% 38% 17%

20%

35% 18%

Unfavoraable

51%

37%

32%

23% 7%

10% 4%

0%

Stroger

Brown

Preckwinkle

O'Brien

No opinion

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Other than African-American voters whose opinions are divided, county constituencies are strongly negative. Voters think more favorably of Brown, Preckwinkle, and O’Brien. Among the challengers, Brown has the highest name recognition. Recognition/Opinion, Cook Board President Candidates; Dec, 2-8 2009 Cook Cook White Black Gender County Chicago Subs Voters Voters Male Female

Todd Stroger Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Dorothy Brown Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Toni Preckwinkle Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion Terry O’Brien Heard Of Favorable Unfavorable No Opinion

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

98 17 61 20

99 19 57 23

96 13 68 15

99 4 81 14

99 35 35 29

97 19 62 17

99 15 60 23

91 38 18 35

93 41 18 34

88 34 17 37

89 28 19 42

94 57 14 23

89 35 21 33

93 41 15 36

62 23 7 32

67 26 9 32

54 19 4 31

61 25 3 33

67 23 13 31

70 24 8 38

56 23 6 27

51 10 4 37

51 9 5 36

52 12 1 39

49 11 2 36

52 8 5 39

51 9 4 37

51 11 3 37

Base: (502) (320) (182) (267) (184) (222) (280) Ques D5. “Here are names of some more people who may or may not be known in your area. Ques D 5a-d. [NAME] is your opinion of him/her... favorable, unfavorable, do you have no opinion, or have you never heard of him/her?”

Incumbent Todd Stroger is in serious trouble trailing two of his challengers in an election only eight weeks away. Candidate Would Vote For In Primary; Dec. 2-8, 2009 Cook Cook White Black Gender County Chicago Subs Voters Voters Male Female %

%

%

%

%

%

%

29 20 14 11 2 24

28 23 16 12 3 19

31 15 10 11 1 31

26 24 3 17 3 28

30 17 29 3 1 20

24 21 15 14 4 22

32 19 13 10 * 26

(502)

(320)

(182)

(267)

(184)

(222)

(280)

Brown Preckwinkle Stroger O’Brien Other cand. (Vol.) Undecided Base:

Ques D6a-b. “Candidates for Cook County Board President in the Democratic primary are.…Toni Preckwinkle, Terry O’Brien, Dorothy Brown, and Todd Stroger. If that election was held today, for whom would you vote…(Shuffle names)?” (If undecided.) “If you were voting today and really had to decide right now, would you vote for...(Shuffle names)?”

Few Democratic voters say race will be a factor in deciding on a candidate in this race.

   Page 3 Whether Race Will Influence Candidate Choice; Dec. 2-8, 2009 Cook Cook White Black Gender County Chicago Subs Voters Voters Male Female %

%

%

%

%

%

%

15 6 10 83 11 72 2

17 7 10 81 12 69 2

12 4 8 87 10 77 1

6 2 3 93 9 84 1

28 10 18 70 16 54 2

17 8 9 81 11 70 2

14 4 10 85 11 74 1

(502)

(320)

(182)

(267)

(184)

(222)

(280)

Lot/Some (Net) A lot Some Little/Not at all (Net) Very little Not at all Don’t know Base:

Ques. D7. “How much will race influence your choice of a candidate to vote for in this election….?”

Two in three Cook County Democratic primary voters disapprove of the job Todd Stroger is doing as board president, consistent with county Democrats in a poll of all registered voters last August. Cook County

Approve Disapprove No opinion

Todd Stroger Job Approval; Dec. 2-8, 2009 Cook White Black Gender Chicago Subs Voters Voters Male Female

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

16 66 18

18 64 18

13 69 18

4 82 14

33 45 22

17 69 14

15 64 21

Base: (502) (320) (182) (267) (184) (222) (280) Ques. D8. “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Todd Stroger is doing as Cook County Board President?”

The major issue has been Stroger’s vetoes of bills eliminating/reducing a recent county sales tax increase followed by hiring scandals. Three in five county Democratic primary voters disapprove of the vetoes. Approval Of Stroger Vetoes Of Sales Tax Roll-backs; Dec. 2-8, 2009 Cook Cook White Black Gender County Chicago Subs Voters Voters Male Female

Approve Disapprove No opinion Base:

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

20 62 18

20 61 19

19 65 16

11 74 15

32 46 22

24 63 14

17 62 21

(502)

(320)

(182)

(267)

(184)

(222)

(280)

Ques. D9. “Todd Stroger has repeatedly vetoed attempts to roll back the Cook County sales tax increase. Do you approve or disapprove of his action?”

Issues with Stroger extend beyond tax increase, e.g., hiring practices.

August Poll Of Cook County Voters

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In an August poll of all registered voters, 70% of Cook County Democrats disapproved of the job Stroger was doing and 68% did not want to see him reelected, also close to the opinion of countywide voters. Findings among a smaller sample suggested that many Black voters felt the same. Comparisons with current poll results are within narrow statistical errors of margin. Todd Stroger Job Approval, Reg. Voters; Aug. 27-31, 2009 Cook Party ID County Chicago Subs. Dem. Ind. GOP Whites

Approve Disapprove No opinion Base:

Blacks

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

10 70 20

14 65 21

6 75 19

13 70 18

7 70 22

6 72 22

6 77 17

22 57 21

(300)

(154)

(146)

(177)

(80)

(32)

(179)

(81)

Q14. “Do you approve or disapprove of the job Todd Stroger is doing as Cook County Board President?” Whether Would Like To See Stroger Re-elected, Reg. Voters; Aug. 27-31, 2009 Cook Party ID County Chicago Subs. Dem. Ind. GOP Whites Blacks

Re-elected Not re-elected No opinion Base:

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

%

10 72 19

13 65 22

6 79 15

13 68 19

4 80 16

6 72 22

7 79 14

17 59 23

(300)

(154)

(146)

(177)

(80)

(32)

(179)

(81)

Q15. “Next year, would you like to see Todd Stroger re-elected to another term as Cook County Board President….or would you not like to see him re-elected?”

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