For November 23rd 2009

For November 23rd 2009

Questions and suggestions? Contact me at [email protected] Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy. CFD charts were generated using MetaTrader 4.0 with price data obtained from Google Finance. FX charts were generated using Alpari UK’s MetaTrader 4.0. Beta numbers are obtained from Reuters.com.

EURUSD

Instead of heading upwards in line with my expectation last week, the pair went sideways and barely made any progress at all. There have been some adjustments on the chart, with the support now lies at 1.4786, just nearby the rising channel bottom. Lower supports are seen around 1.47011.4725 with the pivotal point at 1.4617/1.4625. If EURUSD slips below 1.4625, a double top pattern will be confirmed, bringing some 400 pips additional losses to the pair below 1.4625. It appears that the recent sideways pattern could have been a 5-legged flat correction of the rally from 1.4625 to 1.5048. Looking inside this flat correction, the fifth leg should have been completed on Friday and that the pair may as well continue its way upwards early next week. Under this assumption, the bias is up and that long position can be established while the pair stays above 1.4786. If the rising price channel is broken, the risk is that EURUSD will be pulled back downwards to retest 1.4625 low. Stop could be placed below 1.4786 although it would be better to add some tolerance as well to avoid false breakouts. The objective is seen at 1.5048/1.5059 first, then 1.5159 and up to 1.5200.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD hit the target nicely as it reached 1.6870. It was unfortunate that last Monday no dip was offered to us as the pair opened up with a gap. With the price now continues to retreat from the high of 1.6877, the focus had shifted back to the downside. Approximately 61.8% of gains from 1.6261 had been lost this week, and it is likely that the slide may continue next week towards the 76.4% retracement level at 1.6398. Beyond this there is only the crucial low at 1.6261. Upside, there isn’t many resistance to cap in the near-term. The best point of reference will be Friday’s high at 1.6675, assuming that cable had established a consecutive lower-low and lower-high for the last four days. Breaking the Friday’s peak will negate this pattern and probably ease up the current bearish pressure. Since the direction is now down, look to short on rallies but maintaining stop just above 1.6675. The objective will be the next Fibonacci level at 1.6398 and then the key support at 1.6261. Near 1.6261 we may consider exiting the position and probably switching to enter long as the risk becomes increasingly low as we head towards 1.6261.

USDJPY

Apparently it wasn’t the greenback who turned out to be the weakest, but it was yen who managed to gained against the greenback. Despite its strength, USDJPY only managed to push towards 88.63. The fall seemed to be slow as it barely made any progress downwards since last Monday. Nevertheless, the pair closed the week at 88.87, the lowest since it visited the 88.00 handle during early October. Next support is seen at 88.42 and then the 88.00 itself. Friday’s attempt upwards was capped at 89.09, so this will be the first resistance for next week. More resistances are seen at 89.37 and 89.61, but the key turning point will be 90.60. Above this, the bears will have to wait for another chance before it could attempt another push below 88.00. To enter short may a bit discouraging at the current price level as it would offer little room for gains. So it would be best to either wait on the sidelines, or to wait for corrective rally between 89.09-89.61. Small short may be attempted but with very tight stop above 89.13 on the notion that the pair had established a consecutive lower high pattern since 90.60 and above Friday’s high will naturally turn the direction upwards for a while. Targets for short positions could be set at around 88.00-88.42. Again, this trade idea has very small room for maneuvering, anyone trying to play this one will have to be extra cautious.

Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd. (TYO:8802)

Beta: 1.48 Mitsubishi Estate bounced off its projection target at ¥1,249 on Friday and settled the day in a bullish candle. Despite this however, the stock closed significantly lower on the weekly basis and as seen on the chart, the zigzag structure heading downwards remains intact. Resistance nearby is seen at ¥1,305 former swing low, then ¥1,381 the peak of the week. Below ¥1,249 the 61.8% retracement level at ¥1,198 will be the next support. It is to be noted that at ¥1,133 we have multiple technical level intertwined altogether, suggesting a strong support to be found there. Friday might have ended in a bullish candle, but overall the outlook remains bearish. Thus, look to enter short while below ¥1,381 with stop set above ¥1,381 and targets set at ¥1,198 and ¥1,133.

CITIC Pacific Ltd. (HKG:0267)

Beta: 1.79 CITIC ended the week on a weak note at 21.15. So far the rise from 19.64 has been retraced by nearly 61.8% with the 76.4% retracement level is seen at 20.38. The structure from 24.25 seems to be either 3-3-3 or 3-3-5. The first leg had been completed from 24.25 to 19.32, while the second had ended at 22.80 and the last leg is still in progress. If the third leg equals the first, we may see a fall towards 17.88, just below 18.19 the 61.8% retracement level of the rise from 14.44 to 24.25. The structure could also develop into a 5-legged triangle pattern with 3-3-3-3-3 structure. Should this be the case, the trendline from 19.32 towards 19.64 may be the next bouncing point for CITIC. The price will be at 19.90 on the trendline in the coming session. At any case, the bias is currently down, so look to short CITIC with stop above 22.80 and the target set at 19.90 first. Once there, either exit or trail the stop in anticipation of a 3x5 structure to materialize instead of 3-3-5. To confirm the 3-3-5 we will have to see the support at 19.32/19.64 to be broken. Once broken, the remaining short position may set 17.88 as the objective.

Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk. (JSX:BBRI)

Beta: 1.24 BBRI’s repeated attempts to break through 7,750 remains unsuccessful so far this week as the stock ended Friday at 7,700. Currently stuck at the 50% retracement level and the 0.618x projection target at 7,750, the stock however could finally be successful in the coming week. Critical support comes at 6,800 but a minor support at 7,200 may limit the downside as the first line of defense. As long as this support holds, the path towards 7,950 and subsequent targets will remain open for BBRI. Beyond 8,700 we have 9,950 and 10,650 awaiting to be tested. The bullish bias will be seriously dented should the price sinks below 6,800. Under this scenario, a return move towards 5,550 can not be ruled out. At any rate, look to enter long position with stop set below either 7,200 or 6,800. Targets will be between 7,950 to 8,400 for now.

Medco Energy International, Tbk. (JSX:MEDC)

Beta: 1.04 Finally reaching the 23.6% retracement at 2,775, MEDC looks set to hit 2,875, 2,975, 3,075 and 3,200 later on. Note that we have a descending trendline that stretches from 3,825 – 3,400. This line could once again, block the move higher towards 3,400 and 3,825. Support will be none other than 2,575 and afterwards, 2,425 and 2,100. Long positions may be taken once the price dips a little, with stop set below 2575.

MARKET DATA – November 20th 2009 JAPAN - NIKKEI 225

Advantest Corp. Canon Inc. Daikin Industries Ltd. Honda Motor Co. Ltd Kyocera Corp Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd Nikon Corp Nippon Oil Corp Nippon Steel Corp Nissan Motor Co Ltd Sony Corp Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd TDK Corp Tokyo Electron Ltd Toyota Motor Corp Nikkei 225 HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX

Bank of China Bank of Communications Bank of East Asia BOC Hongkong Ltd Cathay Pacific Air China Construction Bank Corp. China Life Insurance Company Ltd. China Merchants Holdings Co. Ltd. China Mobile China Overseas Land & Investment China Petroleum& Chemical Corp. China Resources Enterprise, Ltd. China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. China TelecomCorporation Ltd. CITIC Pacific Ltd. COSCO Pacific Ltd. Esprit Holdings Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. Hang Lung Properties Ltd. Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. HK Electric Holdings Ltd. Hong Kong & China Gas Company Ltd. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. MTR Corporation Ltd. New World Development Company Ltd. PetroChina Company Ltd. Ping An Insurance Company of China Ltd. Sino Land Co. Ltd. Wharf Holdings Ltd. Hang Seng Index

Open 2,050 3,340 3,160 2,700 7,010 1,248 1,608 372 311 624 2,390 215 4,640 4,910 3,440 9,460.21

High 2,060 3,410 3,200 2,725 7,060 1,281 1,615 380 319 627 2,430 221 4,710 4,980 3,470 9,513.60

Low 2,020 3,330 3,160 2,670 6,940 1,239 1,557 370 311 609 2,375 215 4,580 4,840 3,400 9,423.66

Close 2,030 3,400 3,200 2,725 7,040 1,270 1,592 380 318 621 2,410 217 4,650 4,860 3,440 9,497.68

Prv Dy 2,090 3,350 3,210 2,740 7,110 1,268 1,638 381 316 639 2,470 220 4,690 5,010 3,490 9,549.47

Open High Low Close Prv Dy 4.70 4.75 4.68 4.72 4.73 9.66 9.67 9.52 9.60 9.69 32.20 33.25 32.20 33.10 32.65 19.04 19.20 18.74 18.78 19.16 13.64 13.74 13.46 13.52 13.80 7.15 7.17 7.05 7.11 7.16 38.05 38.90 38.00 38.45 38.60 25.15 25.20 24.85 24.90 25.25 77.20 77.20 76.50 76.55 77.45 16.70 16.82 16.64 16.74 16.80 6.80 6.81 6.65 6.67 6.84 25.60 25.60 24.80 24.85 25.60 38.25 38.50 37.80 38.30 38.85 3.51 3.55 3.48 3.49 3.55 21.30 21.50 21.05 21.15 21.40 11.10 11.24 10.92 11.06 11.22 53.35 53.90 53.30 53.30 53.20 6.67 6.68 6.56 6.60 6.70 31.05 31.05 29.65 30.00 30.95 54.10 54.65 53.65 54.30 54.95 41.90 42.20 41.90 42.15 41.85 18.44 18.72 18.40 18.70 18.64 53.95 54.10 53.45 53.55 54.25 6.76 6.78 6.70 6.75 6.86 26.80 26.95 26.75 26.90 26.95 16.00 16.18 15.98 16.18 16.20 9.98 10.02 9.87 9.95 10.08 70.50 71.05 69.50 70.25 71.20 14.26 14.32 14.04 14.32 14.24 40.60 41.30 40.25 40.45 41.50 22,486.56 22,894.84 22,376.36 22,455.84 22,643.16

Dy Chg -2.87% 1.49% -0.31% -0.55% -0.98% 0.16% -2.81% -0.26% 0.63% -2.82% -2.43% -1.36% -0.85% -2.99% -1.43% -0.54%

Prv Wk 1,975 3,420 3,250 2,900 7,290 1,337 1,694 403 335 661 2,550 229 5,030 4,900 3,510 9,770.31

Dy Chg Prv Wk -0.21% 4.83 -0.93% 9.72 1.38% 32.80 -1.98% 19.46 -2.03% 13.46 -0.70% 7.14 -0.39% 38.75 -1.39% 26.70 -1.16% 73.80 -0.36% 17.08 -2.49% 6.82 -2.93% 25.75 -1.42% 38.70 -1.69% 3.55 -1.17% 22.00 -1.43% 11.16 0.19% 52.70 -1.49% 6.70 -3.07% 30.75 -1.18% 53.80 0.72% 42.20 0.32% 18.54 -1.29% 54.50 -1.60% 6.81 -0.19% 27.35 -0.12% 16.52 -1.29% 9.95 -1.33% 72.50 0.56% 14.40 -2.53% 41.45 -0.83% 22,553.63

Wk Chg 2.78% -0.58% -1.54% -6.03% -3.43% -5.01% -6.02% -5.71% -5.07% -6.05% -5.49% -5.24% -7.55% -0.82% -1.99% -2.79% Wk Chg -2.28% -1.23% 0.91% -3.49% 0.45% -0.42% -0.77% -6.74% 3.73% -1.99% -2.20% -3.50% -1.03% -1.69% -3.86% -0.90% 1.14% -1.49% -2.44% 0.93% -0.12% 0.86% -1.74% -0.88% -1.65% -2.06% 0.00% -3.10% -0.56% -2.41% -0.43%

Indonesia - Jakarta Stock Exchange

Astra Agro Lestari Tbk Adaro Energy Tbk Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk Astra International Tbk Bank Central Asia Tbk Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk Bank Danamon Tbk Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Barito Pacific Tbk Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk Bakrie TelecomTbk Bumi Resources Tbk Central Proteinaprima Tbk Ciputra Property Tbk Bakrieland Development Tbk Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Indika Energy Tbk Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Kalbe Farma Tbk Lippo Karawaci Tbk PP London Sumatera Tbk Medco Energi International Tbk Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam HolcimIndonesia Tbk Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk Truba AlamManunggal E. Tbk Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk United Tractors Tbk JSX Composite

Open 22,650 1,680 2,350 33,150 4,700 1,950 7,550 4,450 680 4,700 1,360 770 147 2,675 72 275 285 3,175 2,175 11,900 26,300 1,900 125 1,290 570 7,850 2,675 3,825 15,000 1,640 7,450 9,000 147 790 15,650 2,468.26

High 22,700 1,710 2,425 33,450 4,750 1,990 7,750 4,525 690 4,750 1,380 850 158 2,825 74 285 295 3,225 2,225 11,950 27,000 1,910 127 1,300 580 7,950 2,775 3,875 15,600 1,650 7,550 9,100 152 820 15,700 2,490.30

Low 22,350 1,660 2,325 32,900 4,675 1,950 7,550 4,400 680 4,675 1,340 770 146 2,650 71 275 280 3,175 2,150 11,850 26,200 1,880 124 1,280 550 7,800 2,650 3,825 15,000 1,630 7,400 8,950 146 780 15,500 2,458.63

Close 22,650 1,700 2,400 33,250 4,700 1,980 7,700 4,500 680 4,725 1,380 850 157 2,825 72 285 295 3,200 2,225 11,900 26,750 1,890 126 1,300 570 7,850 2,775 3,875 15,550 1,640 7,400 9,000 149 810 15,600 2,487.37

Prv Dy 22,650 1,680 2,375 33,250 4,700 1,950 7,650 4,425 680 4,725 1,370 770 148 2,625 73 280 285 3,200 2,175 11,900 26,450 1,900 125 1,290 570 7,900 2,700 3,825 15,000 1,650 7,450 9,000 149 800 15,650 2,468.79

Dy Chg 0.00% 1.19% 1.05% 0.00% 0.00% 1.54% 0.65% 1.69% 0.00% 0.00% 0.73% 10.39% 6.08% 7.62% -1.37% 1.79% 3.51% 0.00% 2.30% 0.00% 1.13% -0.53% 0.80% 0.78% 0.00% -0.63% 2.78% 1.31% 3.67% -0.61% -0.67% 0.00% 0.00% 1.25% -0.32% 0.75%

Prv Wk 22,150 1,620 2,275 32,700 4,750 1,970 7,450 4,450 700 4,700 1,390 770 129 2,450 66 285 285 3,100 2,175 11,600 25,650 1,850 129 1,290 620 7,750 2,625 3,625 14,550 1,610 7,150 8,750 123 760 15,550 2,426.80

Wk Chg 2.26% 4.94% 5.49% 1.68% -1.05% 0.51% 3.36% 1.12% -2.86% 0.53% -0.72% 10.39% 21.71% 15.31% 9.09% 0.00% 3.51% 3.23% 2.30% 2.59% 4.29% 2.16% -2.33% 0.78% -8.06% 1.29% 5.71% 6.90% 6.87% 1.86% 3.50% 2.86% 21.14% 6.58% 0.32% 2.50%