For November 16th 2009

For November 16th 2009

Questions and suggestions? Contact me at [email protected] Any information contained in this document are based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. There’s no representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This post has been prepared solely for information purposes and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy. CFD charts were generated using MetaTrader 4.0 with price data obtained from Google Finance. Beta numbers are obtained from Reuters.com.

EURUSD

EURUSD rallied instead last Monday, contrary to my expectation. The pair peaked at 1.5048 on Wednesday before it got pushed back towards 1.4820, retracing 50% of the gains since 1.4625. Friday also had the pair attempting to rally again, but so far it managed to reach 1.4937 before it settled the day and the week at 1.4901. Support at around the 50% retracement seems to hold well for now. Assuming that the recent drop to 1.4820 was merely a correction, EURUSD is seen returning to the upside area, attempting to break 1.5048/1.5059 resistance before it aims at 1.5255. If we look at the weekly chart, the price has re-entered its rising price channel after previously knocked out off it sometime ago. At the moment, the smaller channel top lies at 1.5255, but the larger channel has it at around lower 1.5900s. So, will the dollar rout resumes? We shall see that next week. As for now, while above 1.4820, aim for the 1.5255, but should the support is broken, this would imply that the structure from 1.5059 has been of a flat correction and that a revisit of 1.4625 is likely to be seen later.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD hit the expected objective at 1.6830 nicely and immediately last Monday. Subsequently knocked off the high, the pair fell to as low as 1.6514 before it renewed its strength on Friday. Similar to EURUSD, cable outlook also implies that the greenback’s rout is set to continue in the coming sessions. Resistances have been pinpointed at 1.6830-1.6870 where various retracement and projection levels intertwined, then upon successfully eliminating the yellow area, the next objectives will be 1.7041, 1.7093 and later 1.7235. The downside is to be guarded by 1.6514, 1.6482, 1.6398 and 1.6261. Below 1.6514 will suggest that the correction from 1.6842 peak is still in progress and a maximum drop to 1.6261 is to be expected. Only below 1.6261 however, the bearish pressure will set in and drag the cable back below 1.6000 handle. For now, stay bullish while above 1.6514 and look to enter long position on a dip. Suggested stop will be below 1.6514, while the targets are 1.6842 and up to above 1.7.

USDJPY

It was not until Thursday that the corrective rally that was expected last week materialized as USDJPY hit 90.60 but only after it dropped to 89.28. The new swing low set another zigzag structure downwards (91.30-89.28-90.60) aiming at 89.35, 88.57 and 87.32. The swing point high at 90.60 will be the critical resistance next week. The bearish outlook in USDJPY also supports the notion that the greenback is now the weakest currency and that the key low at 88.00 will eventually be revisited or even broken in the coming week. Look to enter short upon corrective rally with stop set above 90.60. Objectives could be set at the mentioned support levels. Above 90.60 will trigger a return move towards 92.00-92.40 area and possibly higher.

Advantest Corp. (TYO:6857)

Beta: 1.36 We are returning to the first stock that I’ve analyzed back then in late October: Advantest. Since the last analysis, the stock had fallen as expected, hitting ¥1,923 (1.618x fibo projection) this week, slightly lower than the expected target of ¥1,950. It managed to go as high as ¥2,410, so this should provide some room to short at ¥2,401 resistance level. On the daily chart, Friday’s low at ¥1,923 could set off a double bottom pattern should the stock rallies past ¥2,070. This pattern bears the projected target of ¥147 above ¥2,070 or ¥2,217, just a tad lower of ¥2,222, the 50% retracement level. In addition, the daily MACD is rising although the weekly MACD is still falling. This suggests that the current rise may be corrective. Once completed, the subsequent fall may take Advantest below ¥1,923 towards ¥1,772 or even ¥1,590. Although an immediate drop may not be likely in the short-term, anyone trying to capture the corrective rally towards ¥2,222 may want to set a tight stop below ¥1,923. After all, from the riskto-reward perspective, it’s a good trade setup. Another setup will be to enter short on an immediate break of ¥1,923 at the risk of entering too low. This second option will require a stop above ¥2,070. The third option is to wait for the corrective rally to reach either ¥2,151 or ¥2,222 before taking a short position. The least favorable option would be to wait for a break of ¥2,070 before entering long. It is unfavorable because it heightens the risk by entering 100 points higher than the current price.

Bank of China Ltd. (HKG:3988)

Beta: 0.82 BoC is one more step closer to erase all its losses since it started falling in 2007. The 2007’s peak at 5.27 is now nearby and Friday’s rally may set up a follow through towards it. Thursday’s low will be the near-term support (4.66) while the closest resistance lies at 5.03, the equivalent projection target. Once this is cleared, the focus will shift towards 5.27 and then 5.49, the 1.618x projection target. The downside is guarded by 4.28, 3.93, 3.61, and 3.36. Since BoC set higher pivot highs and pivot lows until now, the first critical pivot will be 4.28. Only below this will suggest that the rally has been completed. At the moment, look to enter long with stop set below 4.28, and targeting at 5.03, 5.27, and 5.49. Not ideal from risk-to-reward perspective, but setting 4.66 as the crucial pivot point would be too premature right now. Nevertheless, should the long trade is to be opened, the stop itself could be adjusted to be just below 4.66 once the target at 5.03 is reached.

Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk. (JSX:ANTM)

Beta: 1.36 Aneka Tambang bounced near its trendline support on Friday and settled the day at 2275. While the upside is seen capped by 2400, another attempt upwards seems to be building up. Either this will end in another failure at or near 2400, thereby forming a triangle, or that the stock will finally break the resistance and rally towards 2475. Overall, the structure of the wave since 2100 low seems corrective and thus I expect the stock is still vulnerable to a slide back towards 2100 or even lower to 2000. For now, as long as ANTM remains locked inside the 2100-2400 range, expect the stock to continue forming its triangular pattern which is now is likely to be in its final leg-5. Afterwards, unless it could clear its way above 2400, a drop below 2100 to resume the slide is to be expected. Look to short near 2400 for the continuation of the fall, set the stop above 2475.

United Tractors Tbk (JSX:UNTR)

Beta: 1.41 Stalling at 16100 recently, UNTR ended Friday in a doji candle after it retraced 38.2% of its rise from 14200 to 16100. The recent high at 16100 itself was the 76.4% retracement level of the fall from 16750 to 14200. Therefore, somehow the Fibonacci numbers have played quite a good role in calculating the support and resistance points here. Weekly MACD is still falling although the daily MACD is rising, but it is likely that the second leg of a larger zigzag correction had ended at 16100 and that the next directional bias is down, with targets seen at 14500 (0.618x projection), 13550 (1x) and as far as 12000 (1.618x). Nearby supports can be found at the retracement points of the swing from 14200-16100 at 15400, 15150, and 14950. In addition to these technical points, the entire rise from 2350 to 16750 itself had its own retracement points at 13350 (23.6%) and 11250 (38.2%). Hence, for next week as long as the top at 16100 remains solid, look to short with the objectives set at the aforementioned technical support levels. Stop could be set above 16100 or 16750 depending on the one’s risk tolerance level.

MARKET DATA – November 13th 2009 JAPAN - NIKKEI 225

Advantest Corp. Canon Inc. Daikin Industries Ltd. Honda Motor Co. Ltd Kyocera Corp Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd Nikon Corp Nippon Oil Corp Nippon Steel Corp Nissan Motor Co Ltd Sony Corp Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd TDK Corp Tokyo Electron Ltd Toyota Motor Corp Nikkei 225 HONG KONG - HANG SENG INDEX

Bank of China Bank of Communications Bank of East Asia BOC Hongkong Ltd Cathay Pacific Air China Construction Bank Corp. China Life Insurance Company Ltd. China Merchants Holdings Co. Ltd. China Mobile China Overseas Land & Investment China Petroleum& Chemical Corp. China Resources Enterprise, Ltd. China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. China TelecomCorporation Ltd. CITIC Pacific Ltd. COSCO Pacific Ltd. Esprit Holdings Foxconn International Holdings Ltd. Hang Lung Properties Ltd. Henderson Land Development Co. Ltd. HK Electric Holdings Ltd. Hong Kong & China Gas Company Ltd. Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. MTR Corporation Ltd. New World Development Company Ltd. PetroChina Company Ltd. Ping An Insurance Company of China Ltd. Sino Land Co. Ltd. Wharf Holdings Ltd. Hang Seng Index

Open 1,923 3,410 3,230 2,905 7,310 1,334 1,712 407 335 666 2,550 229 5,020 4,840 3,520 9,793.19

High 1,979 3,450 3,280 2,935 7,380 1,346 1,738 407 337 670 2,575 230 5,080 4,950 3,570 9,805.20

Low 1,923 3,390 3,220 2,870 7,230 1,318 1,686 401 331 653 2,530 227 4,960 4,810 3,510 9,719.38

Close 1,975 3,420 3,250 2,900 7,290 1,337 1,694 403 335 661 2,550 229 5,030 4,900 3,510 9,770.31

Prv Dy 1,941 3,410 3,270 2,905 7,370 1,343 1,711 409 336 662 2,555 232 5,100 4,850 3,520 9,804.49

Open High Low Close Prv Dy 4.68 4.85 4.68 4.83 4.68 9.64 9.78 9.56 9.72 9.71 33.40 34.00 32.30 32.80 34.05 19.82 19.86 19.26 19.46 19.72 13.46 13.50 13.34 13.46 13.36 7.08 7.16 7.00 7.14 7.03 38.00 38.95 38.00 38.75 38.35 26.75 26.85 26.20 26.70 26.85 74.10 74.80 73.50 73.80 74.40 16.72 17.16 16.68 17.08 16.90 6.88 6.90 6.80 6.82 6.85 26.35 26.55 25.65 25.75 26.65 37.70 38.80 37.70 38.70 38.30 3.56 3.58 3.50 3.55 3.54 22.70 22.80 21.60 22.00 22.25 11.14 11.30 11.02 11.16 11.28 52.45 52.90 52.30 52.70 52.45 6.88 6.90 6.66 6.70 6.83 30.65 31.10 30.40 30.75 30.45 54.00 54.90 53.35 53.80 55.40 42.00 42.25 41.90 42.20 41.85 18.54 18.72 18.54 18.54 18.68 55.10 55.60 54.30 54.50 54.50 6.60 6.81 6.60 6.81 6.67 27.50 27.55 27.25 27.35 27.40 16.84 16.84 16.40 16.52 16.76 10.00 10.04 9.86 9.95 10.08 72.25 73.05 71.30 72.50 72.00 14.52 14.52 14.22 14.40 14.48 41.20 42.05 41.20 41.45 42.00 22,381.34 22,707.36 22,343.99 22,553.63 22,397.57

Dy Chg 1.75% 0.29% -0.61% -0.17% -1.09% -0.45% -0.99% -1.47% -0.30% -0.15% -0.20% -1.29% -1.37% 1.03% -0.28% -0.35%

Prv Wk 1,967 3,410 3,090 2,800 7,530 1,323 1,656 424 343 657 2,590 231 5,090 4,910 3,520 9,789.35

Dy Chg Prv Wk 3.21% 4.61 0.10% 9.61 -3.67% 28.70 -1.32% 18.42 0.75% 12.68 1.56% 6.77 1.04% 37.45 -0.56% 24.70 -0.81% 74.10 1.07% 16.96 -0.44% 6.82 -3.38% 26.35 1.04% 37.20 0.28% 3.51 -1.12% 20.35 -1.06% 11.00 0.48% 53.00 -1.90% 7.40 0.99% 30.15 -2.89% 56.25 0.84% 41.60 -0.75% 18.00 0.00% 53.75 2.10% 6.47 -0.18% 27.05 -1.43% 16.74 -1.29% 9.83 0.69% 71.35 -0.55% 14.66 -1.31% 41.90 0.70% 21,829.72

Wk Chg 0.41% 0.29% 5.18% 3.57% -3.19% 1.06% 2.29% -4.95% -2.33% 0.61% -1.54% -0.87% -1.18% -0.20% -0.28% -0.19% Wk Chg 4.77% 1.14% 14.29% 5.65% 6.15% 5.47% 3.47% 8.10% -0.40% 0.71% 0.00% -2.28% 4.03% 1.14% 8.11% 1.45% -0.57% -9.46% 1.99% -4.36% 1.44% 3.00% 1.40% 5.26% 1.11% -1.31% 1.22% 1.61% -1.77% -1.07% 3.32%

Indonesia - Jakarta Stock Exchange

Astra Agro Lestari Tbk Adaro Energy Tbk Aneka Tambang (Persero) Tbk Astra International Tbk Bank Central Asia Tbk Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk Bank Danamon Tbk Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk Barito Pacific Tbk Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk Bakrie TelecomTbk Bumi Resources Tbk Central Proteinaprima Tbk Ciputra Property Tbk Bakrieland Development Tbk Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk Indika Energy Tbk Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk Kawasan Industri Jababeka Tbk Kalbe Farma Tbk Lippo Karawaci Tbk PP London Sumatera Tbk Medco Energi International Tbk Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam HolcimIndonesia Tbk Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk Truba AlamManunggal E. Tbk Bakrie Sumatra Plantations Tbk United Tractors Tbk JSX Composite

Open 21,850 1,610 2,225 32,500 4,775 1,940 7,300 4,425 670 4,675 1,330 750 130 2,350 66 275 280 3,125 2,175 11,400 24,850 1,840 127 1,290 620 7,500 2,575 3,600 14,500 1,590 7,300 8,750 122 710 15,550 2,420.08

High 22,400 1,710 2,300 32,800 4,800 2,000 7,550 4,450 710 4,750 1,400 780 131 2,475 67 285 290 3,175 2,175 11,650 25,700 1,850 130 1,320 620 7,750 2,625 3,650 14,650 1,620 7,450 8,800 124 770 15,750 2,431.23

Low 21,600 1,600 2,200 32,500 4,725 1,940 7,250 4,400 670 4,650 1,330 740 128 2,350 65 275 275 3,075 2,125 11,400 24,800 1,840 127 1,280 600 7,500 2,575 3,600 14,500 1,590 7,150 8,750 120 710 15,450 2,408.62

Close 22,150 1,620 2,275 32,700 4,750 1,970 7,450 4,450 700 4,700 1,390 770 129 2,450 66 285 285 3,100 2,175 11,600 25,650 1,850 129 1,290 620 7,750 2,625 3,625 14,550 1,610 7,150 8,750 123 760 15,550 2,426.80

Prv Dy 22,200 1,620 2,250 32,750 4,800 1,950 7,300 4,450 670 4,700 1,340 760 131 2,400 66 280 285 3,125 2,200 11,500 25,100 1,840 129 1,280 630 7,550 2,625 3,650 14,600 1,590 7,350 8,800 122 730 15,700 2,420.28

Dy Chg -0.23% 0.00% 1.11% -0.15% -1.04% 1.03% 2.05% 0.00% 4.48% 0.00% 3.73% 1.32% -1.53% 2.08% 0.00% 1.79% 0.00% -0.80% -1.14% 0.87% 2.19% 0.54% 0.00% 0.78% -1.59% 2.65% 0.00% -0.68% -0.34% 1.26% -2.72% -0.57% 0.82% 4.11% -0.96% 0.27%

Prv Wk 21,850 1,540 2,325 30,350 4,725 1,890 7,450 4,550 680 4,625 1,350 800 120 2,325 68 290 285 3,050 2,175 11,800 23,600 1,830 123 1,280 630 7,650 2,700 3,700 14,450 1,580 7,400 8,700 126 690 15,000 2,395.11

Wk Chg 1.37% 5.19% -2.15% 7.74% 0.53% 4.23% 0.00% -2.20% 2.94% 1.62% 2.96% -3.75% 7.50% 5.38% -2.94% -1.72% 0.00% 1.64% 0.00% -1.69% 8.69% 1.09% 4.88% 0.78% -1.59% 1.31% -2.78% -2.03% 0.69% 1.90% -3.38% 0.57% -2.38% 10.14% 3.67% 1.32%