Ejercicios Sugeridos Gerencia De Produccion
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t
Dt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ft 2000 1200 3200 2300 3000 1500 1900 2350 1630 3290 2200 2030 2410 1080 1000 3460 3500 3860 2530 2060 1680 1970 2040 2570
Et 3500 1150 3200 1900 3150 1240 2000 2800 1560 3500 1900 2000 2560 1000 890 3670 3780 3670 2340 2000 1780 2000 2100 2460
1500 -50 0 -400 150 -260 100 450 -70 210 -300 -30 150 -80 -110 210 280 -190 -190 -60 100 30 60 -110
|Et| 1500 50 0 400 150 260 100 450 70 210 300 30 150 80 110 210 280 190 190 60 100 30 60 110
|Et|/Dt 75.00% 4.17% 0.00% 17.39% 5.00% 17.33% 5.26% 19.15% 4.29% 6.38% 13.64% 1.48% 6.22% 7.41% 11.00% 6.07% 8.00% 4.92% 7.51% 2.91% 5.95% 1.52% 2.94% 4.28%
Et^2 2250000 2500 0 160000 22500 67600 10000 202500 4900 44100 90000 900 22500 6400 12100 44100 78400 36100 36100 3600 10000 900 3600 12100
1200 0 -310 -300 300 -150 -120 250 160 160 -210
|Et| 1200 0 310 300 300 150 120 250 160 160 210
|Et|/Dt 60.00% 0.00% 9.69% 13.04% 10.00% 10.00% 6.32% 10.64% 9.82% 4.86% 9.55%
Et^2 1440000 0 96100 90000 90000 22500 14400 62500 25600 25600 44100
ME 7.5 MAD 130.833333 MAPE 5.73% MSE 22158.3333 Desviacion M 148.856754
t
Dt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ft 2000 1200 3200 2300 3000 1500 1900 2350 1630 3290 2200
Et 3200 1200 2890 2000 3300 1350 1780 2600 1790 3450 1990
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2030 2410 1080 1000 3460 3500 3860 2530 2060 1680 1970 2040 2570
ME 55 MAD 110 MAPE 5.10% MSE 17216.6667 Desviacion M 131.212296
1980 2700 1120 900 3380 3670 3790 2450 2130 1690 2100 2220 2670
-50 290 40 -100 -80 170 -70 -80 70 10 130 180 100
50 290 40 100 80 170 70 80 70 10 130 180 100
2.46% 12.03% 3.70% 10.00% 2.31% 4.86% 1.81% 3.16% 3.40% 0.60% 6.60% 8.82% 3.89%
2500 84100 1600 10000 6400 28900 4900 6400 4900 100 16900 32400 10000
Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
Demanda 1265 1020 1042 1113 955 1019 1187 1023 1056 953 1104 1139
Ft (SES) 1073.00 1130.60 1097.42 1080.79 1090.46 1049.82 1040.57 1084.50 1066.05 1063.04 1030.02 1052.22 1078.25 1078.25 1078.25
Et -192.00 110.60 55.42 -32.21 135.46 30.82 -146.43 61.50 10.05 110.04 -73.98 -86.78
|Et| 192.00 110.60 55.42 32.21 135.46 30.82 146.43 61.50 10.05 110.04 73.98 86.78
|Et|/Dt 15.18% 10.84% 5.32% 2.89% 14.18% 3.02% 12.34% 6.01% 0.95% 11.55% 6.70% 7.62%
Et^2 36864.00 12232.36 3071.38 1037.23 18348.27 949.81 21440.77 3782.41 101.02 12107.85 5472.31 7531.21
-192.00 168.20 45.28 -52.89 136.84 -9.26 -171.70 95.32 5.13 105.05 -108.98 -78.59
|Et| 192.00 168.20 45.28 52.89 136.84 9.26 171.70 95.32 5.13 105.05 108.98 78.59
|Et|/Dt 15.18% 16.49% 4.35% 4.75% 14.33% 0.91% 14.47% 9.32% 0.49% 11.02% 9.87% 6.90%
Et^2 36864.00 28291.24 2050.28 2797.14 18726.50 85.79 29482.55 9085.53 26.29 11035.69 11876.56 6176.68
PROMEDIO MOVIL Ft (5)
1142.5 1031.0 1077.5 1034.0 987.0 1103.0 1105.0 1039.5 1004.5 1028.5 1121.5 1139.0
ME -1.46 MAD 87.11 MAPE 8.05% MSE 10244.88 Desviacion M101.217016
Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demanda Ft (SES) Et 1265 1073.00 1020 1188.20 1042 1087.28 1113 1060.11 955 1091.84 1019 1009.74 1187 1015.30 1023 1118.32 1056 1061.13 953 1058.05 1104 995.02 1139 1060.41
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1
2
3
4
200
ME -4.80 MAD 97.44 MAPE 9.01% MSE 13041.52 Desviacion M 114.199478
0 1
2
3
4
Et
|Et|
100.5 -82.0 122.5 15.0 -200.0 80.0 49.0 86.5 -99.5 -110.5
|Et|/Dt
100.5 82.0 122.5 15.0 200.0 80.0 49.0 86.5 99.5 110.5
PROMEDIO MOVIL Ft (5)
Et^2
9.64% 7.37% 12.83% 1.47% 16.85% 7.82% 4.64% 9.08% 9.01% 9.70%
10100.3 6724.0 15006.3 225.0 40000.0 6400.0 2401.0 7482.3 9900.3 12210.3
1110.0 1032.5 1032.3 1068.5 1046.0 1071.3 1054.8 1034.0 1063.0 1065.3
Et
-1961.4 -20408.3 -2750.2 967.5 -11061.8 -4401.1 -6476.5
0.3 ALFA
0.6 ALFA 1400 1200 1000 800 Periodo Demanda
600 400 200 0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
|Et|
1961.4 20408.3 2750.2 967.5 11061.8 4401.1 6476.5
|Et|/Dt
63.86% 95.18% 72.71% 957.70% 91.36% 80.42% 85.99%
200 0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Et^2
3846997.4 ### 7563406.1 936014.9 ### 19369299.5 41944498.3
Dt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ft 2000 1200 3200 2300 3000 1500 1900 2350 1630 3290 2200 2030 2410 1080 1000 3460 3500 3860 2530 2060 1680 1970 2040 2570
Et 3500 1150 3200 1900 3150 1240 2000 2800 1560 3500 1900 2000 2560 1000 890 3670 3780 3670 2340 2000 1780 2000 2100 2460
1500 -50 0 -400 150 -260 100 450 -70 210 -300 -30 150 -80 -110 210 280 -190 -190 -60 100 30 60 -110
|Et| 1500 50 0 400 150 260 100 450 70 210 300 30 150 80 110 210 280 190 190 60 100 30 60 110
|Et|/Dt 75.00% 4.17% 0.00% 17.39% 5.00% 17.33% 5.26% 19.15% 4.29% 6.38% 13.64% 1.48% 6.22% 7.41% 11.00% 6.07% 8.00% 4.92% 7.51% 2.91% 5.95% 1.52% 2.94% 4.28%
Et^2 2250000 2500 0 160000 22500 67600 10000 202500 4900 44100 90000 900 22500 6400 12100 44100 78400 36100 36100 3600 10000 900 3600 12100
1200 0 -310 -300 300 -150 -120 250 160 160 -210
|Et| 1200 0 310 300 300 150 120 250 160 160 210
|Et|/Dt 60.00% 0.00% 9.69% 13.04% 10.00% 10.00% 6.32% 10.64% 9.82% 4.86% 9.55%
Et^2 1440000 0 96100 90000 90000 22500 14400 62500 25600 25600 44100
ME 7.5 MAD 130.833333 MAPE 5.73% MSE 22158.3333 Desviacion M 148.856754
t
Dt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Ft 2000 1200 3200 2300 3000 1500 1900 2350 1630 3290 2200
Et 3200 1200 2890 2000 3300 1350 1780 2600 1790 3450 1990
12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
2030 2410 1080 1000 3460 3500 3860 2530 2060 1680 1970 2040 2570
ME 55 MAD 110 MAPE 5.10% MSE 17216.6667 Desviacion M 131.212296
1980 2700 1120 900 3380 3670 3790 2450 2130 1690 2100 2220 2670
-50 290 40 -100 -80 170 -70 -80 70 10 130 180 100
50 290 40 100 80 170 70 80 70 10 130 180 100
2.46% 12.03% 3.70% 10.00% 2.31% 4.86% 1.81% 3.16% 3.40% 0.60% 6.60% 8.82% 3.89%
2500 84100 1600 10000 6400 28900 4900 6400 4900 100 16900 32400 10000
Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
Demanda 1265 1020 1042 1113 955 1019 1187 1023 1056 953 1104 1139
Ft (SES) 1073.00 1130.60 1097.42 1080.79 1090.46 1049.82 1040.57 1084.50 1066.05 1063.04 1030.02 1052.22 1078.25 1078.25 1078.25
Et -192.00 110.60 55.42 -32.21 135.46 30.82 -146.43 61.50 10.05 110.04 -73.98 -86.78
|Et| 192.00 110.60 55.42 32.21 135.46 30.82 146.43 61.50 10.05 110.04 73.98 86.78
|Et|/Dt 15.18% 10.84% 5.32% 2.89% 14.18% 3.02% 12.34% 6.01% 0.95% 11.55% 6.70% 7.62%
Et^2 36864.00 12232.36 3071.38 1037.23 18348.27 949.81 21440.77 3782.41 101.02 12107.85 5472.31 7531.21
-192.00 168.20 45.28 -52.89 136.84 -9.26 -171.70 95.32 5.13 105.05 -108.98 -78.59
|Et| 192.00 168.20 45.28 52.89 136.84 9.26 171.70 95.32 5.13 105.05 108.98 78.59
|Et|/Dt 15.18% 16.49% 4.35% 4.75% 14.33% 0.91% 14.47% 9.32% 0.49% 11.02% 9.87% 6.90%
Et^2 36864.00 28291.24 2050.28 2797.14 18726.50 85.79 29482.55 9085.53 26.29 11035.69 11876.56 6176.68
PROMEDIO MOVIL Ft (5)
1142.5 1031.0 1077.5 1034.0 987.0 1103.0 1105.0 1039.5 1004.5 1028.5 1121.5 1139.0
ME -1.46 MAD 87.11 MAPE 8.05% MSE 10244.88 Desviacion M101.217016
Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Demanda Ft (SES) Et 1265 1073.00 1020 1188.20 1042 1087.28 1113 1060.11 955 1091.84 1019 1009.74 1187 1015.30 1023 1118.32 1056 1061.13 953 1058.05 1104 995.02 1139 1060.41
1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1
2
3
4
200
ME -4.80 MAD 97.44 MAPE 9.01% MSE 13041.52 Desviacion M 114.199478
0 1
2
3
4
Et
|Et|
100.5 -82.0 122.5 15.0 -200.0 80.0 49.0 86.5 -99.5 -110.5
|Et|/Dt
100.5 82.0 122.5 15.0 200.0 80.0 49.0 86.5 99.5 110.5
PROMEDIO MOVIL Ft (5)
Et^2
9.64% 7.37% 12.83% 1.47% 16.85% 7.82% 4.64% 9.08% 9.01% 9.70%
10100.3 6724.0 15006.3 225.0 40000.0 6400.0 2401.0 7482.3 9900.3 12210.3
1110.0 1032.5 1032.3 1068.5 1046.0 1071.3 1054.8 1034.0 1063.0 1065.3
Et
-1961.4 -20408.3 -2750.2 967.5 -11061.8 -4401.1 -6476.5
0.3 ALFA
0.6 ALFA 1400 1200 1000 800 Periodo Demanda
600 400 200 0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
|Et|
1961.4 20408.3 2750.2 967.5 11061.8 4401.1 6476.5
|Et|/Dt
63.86% 95.18% 72.71% 957.70% 91.36% 80.42% 85.99%
200 0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Et^2
3846997.4 ### 7563406.1 936014.9 ### 19369299.5 41944498.3
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