E Pronosticos _ Wilber
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SEM
Yt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 13 15 17 16 9
SEM
Yt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 13 15 17 16 9
SEM
Yt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 13 15 17 16 9
PRON3
12.00 15.00 16.00 14.00
PROMEDIO MOVIL et [et]
5.00 1.00 -7.00
[et]2
5.00 1.00 7.00 13.00
25.00 1.00 49.00 75.00
DAM 4.33
EMC 25.00
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL (a=0.2) et [et] [et]2 0.2 8.00 9.00 10.20 11.56 12.45 11.76
5.00 6.00 6.80 4.44 -3.45
5.00 6.00 6.80 4.44 3.45 25.69
25.00 36.00 46.24 19.71 11.89 138.84
DAM 5.14
EMC 27.77
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL (a=0.4) et [et] [et]2 0.4 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 14.80 12.48
5.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 -5.80
5.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 5.80 22.80
25.00 25.00 25.00 4.00 33.64 112.64
DAM 4.56
EMC 22.53
L [et]/Yt
et/Yt
0.29 0.06 0.78 1.13
0.29 0.06 -0.78 -0.42
PEMA 0.38
PME -0.14
[et]/Yt
et/Yt
0.38 0.40 0.40 0.28 0.38 1.85
0.38 0.40 0.40 0.28 -0.38 1.08
PEMA 0.37
PME 0.22
[et]/Yt
et/Yt
0.38 0.33 0.29 0.13 0.64 1.78
0.38 0.33 0.29 0.13 -0.64 0.49
CIAL (a=0.2)
CIAL (a=0.4)
PEMA 0.36
PME 0.10
Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demanda 107 93 106 98 100 96
ULTIMO VALOR
107.00 93.00 106.00 98.00 100.00 96.00
MET PROM
[et] SIMPLE 14.00 13.00 8.00 2.00 4.00
DAM
107.00 100.00 102.00 101.00 100.80 100.00
8.20
MET PROMEDIOS
Periodo
Demanda
ULTIMO VALOR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
107 93 106 98 100 96 100.00 96.00 100.00 96.00
107.00 93.00 106.00 98.00 100.00 96.00 100.00 96.00 100.00
D 107 93 106 98 100 96 100.80 100.00 100.11 100.10
Periodo
Demanda
Pronostico
[et]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
132 141 137 159 146 162 166 175 194
127 130 133 135 139 144 149 155 161
5.00 11.00 4.00 24.00 7.00 18.00 17.00 20.00 33.00
SIMPLE 107.00 100.00 102.00 101.00 100.80 100.00 100.11 100.10 100.10
10
181
169
12.00
DAM
15.10
Periodo
Demanda
XY
X2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.5
132.00 141.00 137.00 159.00 146.00 162.00 166.00 175.00 194.00 181.00 159.30
132.00 282.00 411.00 636.00 730.00 972.00 1162.00 1400.00 1746.00 1810.00
17424.00 19881.00 18769.00 25281.00 21316.00 26244.00 27556.00 30625.00 37636.00 32761.00
9281
257493
Y-PRON 159.29 159.29 159.29 159.30 159.30 159.30 159.30 159.31 159.31 159.31
DAM B1
0.0020
B0
159.29
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
MET PROMEDIOS [et]
MOVIL (n=3)
14.00 6.00 4.00 1.00 4.80
102 99 101.33 98
5.96
MET PROMEDIOS D MOVIL (n=3) 107 93 106 98 102.00 100 99.00 96 101.33 101.33 98.00 98.00 99.11 99.11 98.44 98.44 99.48
[et]
SIMPLE (a=0.2)
4.00 1.00 5.33
107.00 104.20 104.56 103.25 102.60 101.28
3.44
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL D SIMPLE (a=0.2) 107 93 107.00 106 104.20 98 104.56 100 103.25 96 102.60 102.60 101.28 101.28 101.54 101.54 101.49 101.49 101.50
[et] 14 1.8 6.56 3.248 6.5984
6.44
[et] 27.29 18.29 22.29 0.30 13.30 2.70 6.70 15.69 34.69 21.69
16.29
Yt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 13 15 17 16 9
SEM
Yt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 13 15 17 16 9
SEM
Yt
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
8 13 15 17 16 9
PRON3
12.00 15.00 16.00 14.00
PROMEDIO MOVIL et [et]
5.00 1.00 -7.00
[et]2
5.00 1.00 7.00 13.00
25.00 1.00 49.00 75.00
DAM 4.33
EMC 25.00
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL (a=0.2) et [et] [et]2 0.2 8.00 9.00 10.20 11.56 12.45 11.76
5.00 6.00 6.80 4.44 -3.45
5.00 6.00 6.80 4.44 3.45 25.69
25.00 36.00 46.24 19.71 11.89 138.84
DAM 5.14
EMC 27.77
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL (a=0.4) et [et] [et]2 0.4 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 14.80 12.48
5.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 -5.80
5.00 5.00 5.00 2.00 5.80 22.80
25.00 25.00 25.00 4.00 33.64 112.64
DAM 4.56
EMC 22.53
L [et]/Yt
et/Yt
0.29 0.06 0.78 1.13
0.29 0.06 -0.78 -0.42
PEMA 0.38
PME -0.14
[et]/Yt
et/Yt
0.38 0.40 0.40 0.28 0.38 1.85
0.38 0.40 0.40 0.28 -0.38 1.08
PEMA 0.37
PME 0.22
[et]/Yt
et/Yt
0.38 0.33 0.29 0.13 0.64 1.78
0.38 0.33 0.29 0.13 -0.64 0.49
CIAL (a=0.2)
CIAL (a=0.4)
PEMA 0.36
PME 0.10
Periodo 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Demanda 107 93 106 98 100 96
ULTIMO VALOR
107.00 93.00 106.00 98.00 100.00 96.00
MET PROM
[et] SIMPLE 14.00 13.00 8.00 2.00 4.00
DAM
107.00 100.00 102.00 101.00 100.80 100.00
8.20
MET PROMEDIOS
Periodo
Demanda
ULTIMO VALOR
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
107 93 106 98 100 96 100.00 96.00 100.00 96.00
107.00 93.00 106.00 98.00 100.00 96.00 100.00 96.00 100.00
D 107 93 106 98 100 96 100.80 100.00 100.11 100.10
Periodo
Demanda
Pronostico
[et]
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
132 141 137 159 146 162 166 175 194
127 130 133 135 139 144 149 155 161
5.00 11.00 4.00 24.00 7.00 18.00 17.00 20.00 33.00
SIMPLE 107.00 100.00 102.00 101.00 100.80 100.00 100.11 100.10 100.10
10
181
169
12.00
DAM
15.10
Periodo
Demanda
XY
X2
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 5.5
132.00 141.00 137.00 159.00 146.00 162.00 166.00 175.00 194.00 181.00 159.30
132.00 282.00 411.00 636.00 730.00 972.00 1162.00 1400.00 1746.00 1810.00
17424.00 19881.00 18769.00 25281.00 21316.00 26244.00 27556.00 30625.00 37636.00 32761.00
9281
257493
Y-PRON 159.29 159.29 159.29 159.30 159.30 159.30 159.30 159.31 159.31 159.31
DAM B1
0.0020
B0
159.29
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
MET PROMEDIOS [et]
MOVIL (n=3)
14.00 6.00 4.00 1.00 4.80
102 99 101.33 98
5.96
MET PROMEDIOS D MOVIL (n=3) 107 93 106 98 102.00 100 99.00 96 101.33 101.33 98.00 98.00 99.11 99.11 98.44 98.44 99.48
[et]
SIMPLE (a=0.2)
4.00 1.00 5.33
107.00 104.20 104.56 103.25 102.60 101.28
3.44
SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL D SIMPLE (a=0.2) 107 93 107.00 106 104.20 98 104.56 100 103.25 96 102.60 102.60 101.28 101.28 101.54 101.54 101.49 101.49 101.50
[et] 14 1.8 6.56 3.248 6.5984
6.44
[et] 27.29 18.29 22.29 0.30 13.30 2.70 6.70 15.69 34.69 21.69
16.29
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