Bai 2-du Bao

  • June 2020
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B¶ng 2-1 dù b¸o phô t¶i Nam Dien nang y = ax +b

1995 5000 4928

1996 5260 5204

1997 5340 5479

1998 5580 5754

1999 6210 6030

2000 6310 6305

2005 7682

1 - Ph©n tÝch t­¬ng quan b»ng Lotus trªn Excel: Gi¶i thÝch: hÖ sè b ®é lÖch chuÈn cña Y b×nh ph­¬ng hÖ sè t­¬ng quan sè quan s¸t sè bËc tù do

Regression Output: Constant Std Err of Y Est R Squared No. of Observations Degrees of Freedom X Coefficient(s) Std Err of Coef.

-544552 150 0.936136 1 4 275.43 35.97

hÖ sè a ®é lÖch chuÈn cña a

2- Hµm LINEST(know_y, know x, const, stats) Gi¸ trÞ a = 275.43 b = -544551.9

C«ng thøc = INDEX(LINEST($B$5:$G$5, $B$4:$G$4),1) = INDEX(LINEST($B$5:$G$5, $B$4:$G$4),2)

Víi sè liÖu nh­ trªn dù b¸o phô t¶i ®iÖn n¨m: 2005 Y= 7682

=B23*E26+B24

KiÓm tra hÖ sè t­¬ng quan Trªn b¶ng 2-1 gi¶ sö sè liÖu c¸c « B6:G6 tÝnh b»ng c¸c hÖ sè t×m ®­îc theo ph­¬ng ph Ta dïng hµm CORREL tÝnh hÖ sè t­¬ng quan råi b×nh ph­¬ng (R): R= 0.936136 =CORREL(B5:G5,B6:G6)^2 ThÊy r»ng gi¸ trÞ R nµy trïng víi gi¸ trÞ R tÝnh b»ng ph­¬ng ph¸p Lotus 3 - Hµm FORECAST(x, know_y, know_x) §iÖn n¨ng dù b¸o n¨m 2005

7682

=FORECAST(2005,B5:G5,B4:G4)

hÖ sè t­¬ng quan

m ®­îc theo ph­¬ng ph¸p nµy

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