Weekly Commodity Price Report

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TD Economics Weekly Commodity Price Report January 19, 2009

HIGHLIGHTS •

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•

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The TDCI in U.S. dollars sank 8.8% last week, as commodity prices were down across the board. An 11.5% decline in energy prices led the way, followed by a 6.7% drop in base metals prices. The index in Canadian dollars fared a little better, falling by a lesser 5%. After rising for two consecutive weeks, crude oil prices plunged 17% to US$35 per barrel. Oil demand forecasts from the EIA, OPEC and IEA were revised downwards last week, which in addition to more dismal economic data from the U.S., trumped the news that Saudi Arabia would produce less than the mandated quota in February. Natural gas prices were also hit last week, falling by nearly 8%. Despite near-record low temperatures in the U.S., the rise in residential natural gas demand has not been enough to offset the decline in industrial demand and dent storage levels. In fact, U.S. inventories are 1% above 2007’s elevated levels and 3% higher than the 5-year average.

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While all base metals lost ground last week, nickel prices led the way with a 14.5% slump. The decline was prompted by speculation that stainless steel production – which accounts for about two thirds of all nickel demand – will fall for a third straight year in 2009, as producers draw down inventories and demand remains sluggish. The agricultural sub-index slipped 3.8% on the week, led by an 8% drop in barley prices. Saudi Arabia – one of the world’s largest barley importers – reduced import subsidies by about 60%, thereby reducing demand for the grain. Precious metals prices tumbled 3% last week as the U.S. dollar strengthened and on fears that the recession will dampen demand for commodities – including precious metals. Gold prices fell by 3%, while silver prices dropped 2.6%.

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SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, JAN 16th TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products ↓ Wheat ↓ Uranium ↓ Hogs ↓ Aluminum ↓ Natural Gas ↓ Barley ↓ Nickel ↓ Crude Oil

LATEST WK 166.7 93.1 200.2 141.6 245.7 140.7 334.71 51.00 60.96 65.73 5.40 133.03 4.74 36.91

Weekly Commodity Price Report

PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 182.7 -8.8 -3.4 -42.4 US$ Sub-Indices 94.2 -1.1 -2.5 -4.8 226.1 -11.5 -5.3 -47.4 151.7 -6.7 3.3 -51.2 253.6 -3.1 -2.4 -11.2 146.1 -3.8 0.7 -27.9 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 347.34 -3.6 0.6 53.00 -3.8 -3.8 63.59 -4.1 -2.5 69.81 -5.8 1.1 5.85 -7.7 -4.7 144.44 -7.9 -2.7 5.55 -14.5 7.7 44.51 -17.1 -6.9

1

-35.0 -43.0 11.6 -40.4 -35.0 -36.8 -62.7 -59.7

52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW 405.5 162.2 109.0 602.7 329.1 309.3 264.8

93.1 190.6 137.0 219.1 133.3

787.1 86.0 86.4 145.6 13.2 255.9 14.8 142.5

306.8 44.0 54.7 65.0 5.4 127.0 4.2 32.4

January 19, 2009

www.td.com/economics TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430

TDCI - ENERGY

Index, 1997=100

700

380

Index, 1997=100

600 Overall TDCI

330

500

280 400 230 300

180 TDCI Ex. Energy

130 80 Jan-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

200 100 Jan-08

Dec-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: TD Economics.

350

300

300

250

250

200

200

150

150

Apr-08

Jul-08

Oct-08

300

108

280

106

260

104

240

102

220

100

200

98

180

96

160

94

140

92

120

Jul-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Index, 1997=100

100 Jan-08

Dec-08

Apr-08

Jul-08

Sep-08

Dec-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.

Weekly Commodity Price Report

Jul-08

TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

Index, 1997=100

Apr-08

Apr-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.

TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS

90 Jan-08

Dec-08

Index, 1997=100

100 Jan-08

Dec-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.

110

Oct-08

TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS

Index, 1997=100

100 Jan-08

Jul-08

Last week plotted: Jan 16, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.

TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350

Apr-08

2

January 19, 2009

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TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES

1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 03-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09

C$ SUB-INDICES

TDCITDCINONNONUS$ C$ PRECPREC AGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PRECPREC AGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODUS$ C$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 294.5 175.4

92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 173.9 132.3

83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 101.6 94.1

184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 404.0 214.6

108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 267.6 253.2

98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 245.1 144.9

99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 181.4 143.2

197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 310.5 212.9

130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 184.3 160.7

117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.0 114.2

258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 425.0 260.4

152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 285.3 307.4

137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 257.7 175.8

139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 192.0 173.9

1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.07 1.21

272.6 249.4 232.6 220.5 215.4 217.3 209.0 200.6 201.1 188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.9 182.7 166.7

161.1 152.4 144.9 135.8 137.6 137.5 135.6 134.1 136.0 130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.2 135.0 129.8

106.4 105.0 103.3 102.1 101.3 100.8 100.5 100.8 99.9 99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.9 94.2 93.1

373.8 337.4 312.4 297.4 286.2 289.9 275.6 261.0 260.3 240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2

262.1 264.7 243.2 223.0 220.9 222.6 219.1 222.8 243.0 228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7

212.7 190.6 177.6 157.4 163.6 162.4 157.4 153.5 154.2 145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6

153.2 143.2 138.4 136.1 138.6 140.7 141.6 136.5 137.5 133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7

289.9 282.8 274.2 273.4 269.6 254.7 254.6 250.8 247.4 236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.5 217.1 206.2

171.4 172.9 170.7 168.4 172.1 161.1 165.2 167.7 167.3 164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 161.0 160.4 160.6

113.2 119.1 121.7 126.6 126.7 118.1 122.5 126.0 122.9 124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 115.6 111.9 115.2

397.6 382.7 368.1 368.7 358.1 339.8 335.8 326.4 320.2 302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7

278.7 300.2 286.7 276.4 276.4 260.9 266.9 278.6 299.0 286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0

226.2 216.2 209.3 195.1 204.8 190.4 191.7 191.9 189.7 182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2

163.0 162.4 163.1 168.7 173.5 165.0 172.5 170.7 169.1 167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0

1.06 1.13 1.18 1.24 1.25 1.17 1.22 1.25 1.23 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24

Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD

-8.8 -3.4 -42.4 -39.1

-3.8 0.0 -31.4 -29.1

-1.1 -2.5 -4.8 -4.1

-11.5 -5.3 -47.4 -43.6

-3.1 -2.4 -11.2 -6.3

-6.7 3.3 -51.2 -49.9

-3.8 0.7 -27.9 -22.8

-5.0 -1.9 -30.4 -26.7

0.2 1.6 -17.1 -14.7

3.0 -0.9 15.0 15.5

-7.8 -3.8 -36.5 -32.1

0.9 -0.8 7.3 12.8

-2.8 5.0 -41.1 -39.7

0.2 2.4 -12.9 -7.0

4.1 1.6 20.8 20.4

52-week low 162.2 52-week high 405.5

129.3 210.4

93.1 109.0

190.6 602.7

219.1 309.3

137.0 329.1

133.3 264.8

197.3 413.0

158.1 208.2

95.9 126.7

232.0 613.9

248.7 317.0

166.8 325.7

162.4 260.6

0.98 1.26

125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1

94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1

203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3

232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8

138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6

122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1

206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7

155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8

117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8

253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5

288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2

172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7

151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3

1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12

FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010

166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3

Weekly Commodity Price Report

3

January 19, 2009

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COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1) ENERGY

FOREST PRODUCTS LUMBER

PULP

NEWSPRINT

OIL

NAT GAS

PRECIOUS METALS COAL

GOLD

SILVER

ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009

309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 206.33

554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 728.09

504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 765.00

31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 41.31

5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 5.63

28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 80.70

365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 849.74

4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 10.99

WEEKLY AVG 03-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09

260.00 252.00 240.00 232.00 225.00 220.00 221.00 224.00 226.00 225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00

871.60 860.81 851.26 844.43 842.27 831.87 824.41 823.18 799.55 793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50

765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 775.00 775.00 775.00 775.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00

96.68 86.23 75.21 68.18 65.68 64.31 58.64 52.34 52.50 45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91

7.30 6.69 6.67 6.73 6.43 6.74 6.65 6.68 6.66 6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40

121.17 111.90 104.70 96.00 100.83 104.02 104.00 85.69 78.19 76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46

869.90 887.95 819.60 748.70 742.20 742.85 734.50 749.30 817.10 769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75

12.54 11.55 10.17 9.63 9.48 10.19 9.61 9.49 10.38 9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77

-1.8 -3.8 -18.3 -16.4 728.77 890.30

0.0 0.0 27.5 27.5 600.00 775.00

-17.1 -6.9 -59.7 -56.4 32.37 142.46

-7.7 -4.7 -35.0 -29.0 5.42 13.19

0.0 4.7 -9.3 -10.7 76.09 194.79

-3.2 -2.5 -8.0 -2.7 734.50 982.65

-2.6 -1.0 -33.1 -30.1 9.48 20.20

726.25 762.50 720.00 790.00

730.00 683.75 700.00 675.00

36.25 66.25 45.00 75.00

5.73 6.63 6.15 7.00

60.00 91.25 65.00 100.00

785.00 751.25 815.00 700.00

9.54 10.14 9.60 10.50

Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -1.9 4 weeks ago -4.7 52 weeks ago -20.7 % Chg. YTD -20.8 52-week low 207.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 225.00 Annual Avg 2010 292.50 Dec 2009 250.00 Dec 2010 325.00

*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.

Weekly Commodity Price Report

4

WEIGHT ( per cent ) 21.1 9.5 5.7 5.9 52.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4.5 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05

January 19, 2009

www.td.com/economics

COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2) NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM

COPPER

NICKEL

ZINC

URANIUM

BARLEY

CANOLA

CATTLE

177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 342.03

104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 139.02

272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 363.39

82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 85.39

55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 61.43

53.00 49.00 46.00 44.00 45.00 46.00 48.00 53.00 55.00 55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00

342.45 319.68 313.49 306.81 319.70 318.45 329.71 318.90 321.46 316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71

174.50 156.94 152.22 149.06 149.60 161.42 153.81 143.80 142.34 127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03

407.81 369.35 346.38 344.16 343.97 370.84 354.67 344.70 343.10 309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14

98.40 92.59 90.43 91.15 90.57 93.53 91.99 86.79 86.71 84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59

67.85 66.79 61.29 57.43 57.49 54.74 55.50 55.67 57.99 58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96

-2.2 15.1 -46.6 -49.7 48.17 124.51

-3.8 -3.8 -43.0 -41.7 44.00 89.50

-3.6 0.6 -35.0 -30.4 306.81 787.06

-7.9 -2.7 -36.8 -25.3 127.01 255.90

-3.4 8.5 -36.3 -24.9 309.23 730.62

-3.3 -1.7 -7.9 -8.5 83.19 103.38

-4.1 -2.5 11.6 9.8 54.63 86.44

45.50 61.25 48.00 70.00

48.75 61 52.00 65.00

270.00 286.25 270.00 300.00

132.50 151.50 140.00 158.00

320.00 342.50 325.00 350.00

83.25 97.00 88.00 102.00

52.50 69.25 55.00 75.00

ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009

65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 67.29

81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 141.95

4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 5.06

37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 54.55

11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 52.33

WEEKLY AVG 3-Oct-08 10-Oct-08 17-Oct-08 24-Oct-08 31-Oct-08 7-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09

106.81 100.74 97.83 89.91 90.82 89.79 86.14 81.48 78.63 71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73

286.29 248.11 229.44 193.74 188.00 180.59 168.71 159.26 165.72 153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38

7.15 6.04 5.36 4.44 5.24 5.27 4.98 4.60 4.56 4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74

74.23 66.58 59.11 50.47 51.39 50.46 51.05 52.31 55.23 51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47

-0.8 9.0 -54.9 -55.4 128.93 398.07

-14.5 7.7 -62.7 -60.1 4.24 14.81

141.25 166.25 150.00 180.00

4.79 5.99 5.15 6.50

Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -5.8 4 weeks ago 1.1 52 weeks ago -40.4 % Chg. YTD -38.6 52-week low 64.99 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 66.25 Annual Avg 2010 91.25 Dec 2009 75.00 Dec 2010 100.00

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS WHEAT

**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.

Weekly Commodity Price Report

5

HOGS

WEIGHT ( per cent ) 14.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7.3 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05

January 19, 2009

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This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

Weekly Commodity Price Report

6

January 19, 2009