Weekly Commodity Price Report
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www.td.com/economics
TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report May 4, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS • The spread of swine flu around the globe has added to the headwinds facing hog producers, as prices plunged 11.6% last week. While the flu cannot be transmitted via eating pork, fears that both domestic and export demand for hog and pork products will fall is dominating the market. • In contrast, crop prices gained on the week, largely due to an uptick in speculative buying that was triggered by bullish technical signs. A depreciation in the U.S. dollar also stimulated demand for crops. Wheat and barley prices each gained 4.0% on the week, while canola prices were up by a more modest 2.4%. • Uranium prices jumped 4.8% last week as higher bids drove sellers to increase asking prices. Utilities, traders and financial entities are all still active in the market, though some of this demand may be discretionary. Uranium prices are down 32% from year-ago levels.
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars rose 1.2% last week, led by a 6.8% gain in crude oil prices. In Canadian dollar terms, the picture was quite different, as a 2% appreciation of the loonie drove the index down 0.9%. • Increased optimism surrounding the U.S. economy, coupled with news that China will be reducing diesel exports in order to satisfy domestic demand, sent crude oil prices up to US$53 per barrel last week. Meanwhile, the market shrugged off an EIA report stating that U.S. demand for crude oil sank to an 11 year low in February. • Natural gas prices slid 4.6% on the week, to the lowest level since the end of 2002. The decline stemmed from the U.S. storage report which indicated that inventories are now 22.5% ahead of the 5-year average. Moreover, with economic conditions still quite weak, industrial demand for natural gas is expected to slide by 7.4% this year, thereby keeping storage levels elevated.
Dina Cover 416-982-2555
SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, MAY st TDCI US$ Index (997=00) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products Ĺ Crude Oil Ĺ Uranium Ĺ Wheat Ĺ Barley Ļ Cattle Ļ Zinc Ļ Natural Gas Ļ Hogs
LATEST WK 9. 85.7 185.5 148.5 268.4 141.2 51.07 44.00 323.21 134.64 85.46 62.37 3.29 62.46
Weekly Commodity Price Report
PRIOR WK % CHG. -WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 2-WKS 7. .2 -0. -4. US$ Sub-Indices 85.9 -0.2 1.2 -16.5 181.7 2.1 -2.9 -61.9 149.0 -0.4 7.7 -50.4 267.5 0.3 -2.4 -1.0 140.5 0.5 4.0 -27.2 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 47.83 6.8 1.5 42.00 4.8 4.8 310.86 4.0 3.5 129.52 4.0 1.2 87.79 -2.7 1.7 64.35 -3.1 6.5 3.45 -4.6 -9.7 70.64 -11.6 3.7
-55.7 -32.3 -32.0 -42.6 -7.6 -37.7 -69.4 -16.0
2-WK HIGH 2-WK-LOW 40. 4.0 109.0 602.7 294.3 303.5 200.6
84.7 177.3 130.3 219.1 131.8
142.5 64.5 491.0 255.9 103.4 102.5 13.2 86.4
32.4 40.0 301.1 121.9 81.8 48.2 3.3 54.7
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430
TDCI - ENERGY
Index, 1997=100
700
380
600
Overall TDCI
330
Index, 1997=100
500
280 400 230 300
180 TDCI Ex. Energy
130
200
80 May-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
100 May-08
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: TD Economics.
TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 May-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Index, 1997=100
100 May-08
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS 110
Oct-08
TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS
Index, 1997=100
350
Aug-08
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Index, 1997=100
260
Index, 1997=100
240
105
220 100
200
95
180 160
90
140 85 80 May-08
120 100 Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
May-08
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES
1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 01-May-09
C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCITDCINONNONC$ US$ AGRI. PREC PRECAGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC PRECTDCI- INDEX FOREST IOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODC$ US$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 265.8 163.3
92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 164.2 129.4
83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 98.6 88.7
184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 358.1 194.0
108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 269.0 270.7
98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 222.5 140.2
99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 171.9 138.0
197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 286.8 202.1
130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 179.1 160.2
117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.0 109.9
258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 384.6 240.2
152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 297.3 335.5
137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 239.6 173.5
139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 187.4 170.9
1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.11 1.24
188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.8 182.6 166.6 166.3 166.2 164.9 159.3 154.0 157.0 158.7 157.5 161.9 167.3 160.5 161.0 161.1 157.6 159.5
130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.0 134.7 129.6 129.5 130.1 130.6 130.3 128.3 127.7 126.2 126.1 127.7 128.1 126.9 128.3 131.4 130.9 130.9
99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.4 93.7 92.6 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.6 87.8 87.4 86.5 86.4 84.7 85.1 85.4 85.9 85.7
240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2 199.7 199.0 196.0 185.7 177.3 183.6 188.3 185.9 193.0 203.0 191.1 190.7 188.1 181.7 185.5
228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7 255.4 270.2 273.6 278.5 292.5 291.0 277.0 275.3 278.7 281.4 274.9 263.6 265.5 267.5 268.4
145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6 139.5 137.8 140.6 138.6 131.6 130.3 131.9 132.5 136.1 137.4 137.8 144.1 153.4 149.0 148.5
133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7 140.7 140.8 140.3 138.7 132.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 136.8 135.1 135.8 138.1 137.3 140.5 141.2
236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.3 217.0 206.1 209.6 203.3 203.5 197.1 193.6 196.8 204.2 202.4 203.6 206.0 200.8 198.6 195.1 193.7 191.9
164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 160.7 160.1 160.3 163.2 159.1 161.1 161.2 161.3 160.1 162.3 162.1 160.6 157.6 158.7 158.3 159.1 160.9 157.5
124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 114.9 111.3 114.6 115.6 111.5 110.7 111.3 112.9 112.3 113.0 112.3 108.8 106.3 105.9 105.0 103.4 105.6 103.1
302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7 251.7 243.4 241.9 229.7 222.9 230.2 242.2 239.0 242.6 249.9 239.0 235.2 227.8 223.4 223.1
286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0 322.0 330.4 337.6 344.5 367.7 364.9 356.5 353.9 350.3 346.3 343.8 325.0 321.6 328.8 323.0
182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2 175.9 168.5 173.6 171.5 165.4 163.4 169.7 170.2 171.1 169.2 172.4 177.7 185.8 183.2 178.6
167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0 177.3 172.2 173.2 171.5 166.0 165.2 170.6 171.6 172.0 166.3 169.9 170.3 166.3 172.7 169.9
1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.23 1.25 1.23 1.21 1.23 1.20
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD
1.2 -0.6 -54.1 -48.0
0.0 3.1 -32.3 -34.2
-0.2 1.2 -16.5 -10.0
2.1 -2.9 -61.9 -53.9
0.3 -2.4 -1.0 -5.4
-0.4 7.7 -50.4 -53.4
0.5 4.0 -27.2 -36.1
-0.9 -4.4 -45.6 -36.1
-2.2 -0.8 -19.8 -19.1
-2.3 -2.6 -1.0 10.8
-0.1 -6.6 -54.9 -43.3
-1.8 -6.1 17.4 16.4
-2.5 3.6 -41.3 -42.6
-1.6 0.0 -13.7 -21.3
-2.1 -3.8 18.5 23.1
52-week low 154.0 52-week high 405.5
126.1 192.5
84.7 109.0
177.3 602.7
219.1 303.5
130.3 294.3
131.8 200.6
191.9 413.0
157.5 208.2
95.9 126.7
222.9 613.9
248.7 367.7
163.4 325.7
162.4 260.6
0.98 1.29
125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1
94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1
203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3
232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8
138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6
122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1
206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7
155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8
117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8
253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5
288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2
172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7
151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3
1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12
FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3
Weekly Commodity Price Report
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS () ENERGY
FOREST PRODUCTS
LUMBER
PULP
NEWSPRINT
OIL
NAT GAS
PRECIOUS METALS
COAL
GOLD
SILVER
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 200.33
554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 681.67
504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 714.44
31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 44.77
5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 4.33
28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 70.64
365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 901.98
4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 12.55
WEEKLY AVG 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 01-May-09
225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00 197.00 193.00 191.00 199.00 200.00 199.00 197.00 198.00 193.00 192.00 196.00 202.00 208.00 212.00 210.00
793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50 709.84 707.25 701.11 688.09 682.27 680.37 679.34 667.67 661.14 660.23 657.17 652.70 645.38 646.00 647.15
765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 665.00 665.00 665.00 665.00 665.00
45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91 42.18 42.52 40.50 36.91 36.99 41.81 43.26 45.68 49.46 53.09 50.32 50.46 49.80 47.83 51.07
6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40 4.80 4.75 4.84 4.71 4.32 4.16 4.24 3.88 3.83 3.92 3.64 3.60 3.55 3.45 3.29
76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46 88.19 83.15 78.17 80.28 76.34 65.32 61.70 62.10 60.30 61.39 60.79 63.24 63.12 63.11 62.26
769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75 854.25 902.95 912.15 924.30 968.80 967.40 921.70 915.60 927.75 932.85 914.35 877.63 882.38 891.35 892.90
9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77 11.45 12.21 12.62 13.34 14.25 13.74 13.00 12.97 13.00 13.59 12.92 12.28 12.59 12.41 12.61
0.2 -1.5 -26.5 -22.4 645.38 890.30
0.0 0.0 -2.2 13.0 665.00 775.00
6.8 1.5 -55.7 -56.0 32.37 142.46
-4.6 -9.7 -69.4 -52.1 3.29 13.19
-1.3 2.4 -53.2 -40.9 60.30 194.79
0.2 -2.3 2.7 -1.8 734.50 971.35
1.7 -2.4 -24.0 -28.3 9.48 18.83
657.50 675.00 640.00 700.00
666.25 620.00 600.00 650.00
41.75 48.00 40.00 55.00
4.16 4.75 4.20 5.15
65.00 74.25 65.00 80.00
928.75 856.25 935.00 800.00
12.93 12.64 13.00 12.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -0.9 4 weeks ago 7.1 52 weeks ago -19.8 % Chg. YTD -18.9 52-week low 191.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 195.75 Annual Avg 2010 238.75 Dec 2009 200.00 Dec 2010 280.00
*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 2. 9.5 5.7 5.9 2.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4. 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2)
NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM
COPPER
NICKEL
CANOLA
CATTLE
177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 320.72
104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 131.63
272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 365.43
82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 84.54
55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 60.98
55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00 51.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 45.00 43.75 43.50 42.50 42.50 42.00 40.00 40.50 42.00 44.00
316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71 336.73 341.01 337.61 326.44 301.13 304.26 303.07 307.88 314.53 304.72 312.31 318.05 305.02 310.86 323.21
127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03 133.12 136.24 131.11 129.34 126.33 125.20 121.86 124.49 130.29 135.50 133.03 130.22 131.46 129.52 134.64
309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14 362.15 365.24 364.10 371.61 352.11 349.03 342.64 345.02 362.29 366.63 362.77 373.21 383.20 389.14 398.39
84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59 83.30 81.93 83.26 84.45 81.96 81.80 84.46 83.10 84.51 85.26 84.02 86.47 87.72 87.79 85.46
58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96 59.79 57.20 57.50 57.36 61.18 58.34 61.17 61.64 62.47 60.89 60.21 59.16 63.44 70.64 62.46
-3.1 6.5 -37.7 -48.5 48.17 102.50
4.8 4.8 -32.3 -39.7 40.00 64.50
4.0 3.5 -32.0 -46.1 301.13 491.02
4.0 1.2 -42.6 -38.2 121.86 255.90
2.4 9.8 -32.5 -40.1 309.23 663.23
-2.7 1.7 -7.6 -7.2 81.80 103.38
-11.6 3.7 -16.0 1.1 54.74 86.44
49.25 62.50 50.00 70.00
46.00 54 47.00 58.00
301.25 310.00 300.00 325.00
123.75 127.00 120.00 130.00
337.50 347.50 325.00 360.00
86.50 95.00 90.00 98.00
61.25 70.25 65.00 75.00
URANIUM
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 62.62
81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 166.08
4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 4.83
37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 55.53
11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 45.76
WEEKLY AVG 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 6-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 3-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 1-May-09
71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73 60.57 59.51 62.27 62.22 58.65 58.14 58.52 58.79 61.69 62.80 62.19 65.09 66.19 64.13 64.57
153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38 145.25 146.38 149.27 155.31 146.34 150.37 160.41 163.58 172.60 179.89 182.39 197.41 213.41 203.09 197.80
4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74 4.98 5.11 5.18 4.85 4.45 4.40 4.41 4.37 4.49 4.37 4.44 4.84 5.49 5.22 5.08
51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47 52.57 50.31 51.36 51.72 49.19 49.44 52.07 54.78 55.30 57.19 58.57 60.35 66.36 64.35 62.37
-2.6 8.4 -49.5 -54.2 128.93 398.07
-2.6 14.5 -60.7 -63.0 4.24 12.61
141.25 148.75 140.00 160.00
4.66 5.14 4.80 5.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 0.7 4 weeks ago 3.8 52 weeks ago -50.7 % Chg. YTD -50.4 52-week low 58.14 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 56.75 Annual Avg 2010 61.25 Dec 2009 57.00 Dec 2010 65.00
WHEAT
**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb)
Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS BARLEY
ZINC
HOGS
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 4.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7. 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The TorontoDominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. Weekly Commodity Price Report
May 4, 2009
TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report May 4, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS • The spread of swine flu around the globe has added to the headwinds facing hog producers, as prices plunged 11.6% last week. While the flu cannot be transmitted via eating pork, fears that both domestic and export demand for hog and pork products will fall is dominating the market. • In contrast, crop prices gained on the week, largely due to an uptick in speculative buying that was triggered by bullish technical signs. A depreciation in the U.S. dollar also stimulated demand for crops. Wheat and barley prices each gained 4.0% on the week, while canola prices were up by a more modest 2.4%. • Uranium prices jumped 4.8% last week as higher bids drove sellers to increase asking prices. Utilities, traders and financial entities are all still active in the market, though some of this demand may be discretionary. Uranium prices are down 32% from year-ago levels.
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars rose 1.2% last week, led by a 6.8% gain in crude oil prices. In Canadian dollar terms, the picture was quite different, as a 2% appreciation of the loonie drove the index down 0.9%. • Increased optimism surrounding the U.S. economy, coupled with news that China will be reducing diesel exports in order to satisfy domestic demand, sent crude oil prices up to US$53 per barrel last week. Meanwhile, the market shrugged off an EIA report stating that U.S. demand for crude oil sank to an 11 year low in February. • Natural gas prices slid 4.6% on the week, to the lowest level since the end of 2002. The decline stemmed from the U.S. storage report which indicated that inventories are now 22.5% ahead of the 5-year average. Moreover, with economic conditions still quite weak, industrial demand for natural gas is expected to slide by 7.4% this year, thereby keeping storage levels elevated.
Dina Cover 416-982-2555
SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, MAY st TDCI US$ Index (997=00) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products Ĺ Crude Oil Ĺ Uranium Ĺ Wheat Ĺ Barley Ļ Cattle Ļ Zinc Ļ Natural Gas Ļ Hogs
LATEST WK 9. 85.7 185.5 148.5 268.4 141.2 51.07 44.00 323.21 134.64 85.46 62.37 3.29 62.46
Weekly Commodity Price Report
PRIOR WK % CHG. -WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 2-WKS 7. .2 -0. -4. US$ Sub-Indices 85.9 -0.2 1.2 -16.5 181.7 2.1 -2.9 -61.9 149.0 -0.4 7.7 -50.4 267.5 0.3 -2.4 -1.0 140.5 0.5 4.0 -27.2 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 47.83 6.8 1.5 42.00 4.8 4.8 310.86 4.0 3.5 129.52 4.0 1.2 87.79 -2.7 1.7 64.35 -3.1 6.5 3.45 -4.6 -9.7 70.64 -11.6 3.7
-55.7 -32.3 -32.0 -42.6 -7.6 -37.7 -69.4 -16.0
2-WK HIGH 2-WK-LOW 40. 4.0 109.0 602.7 294.3 303.5 200.6
84.7 177.3 130.3 219.1 131.8
142.5 64.5 491.0 255.9 103.4 102.5 13.2 86.4
32.4 40.0 301.1 121.9 81.8 48.2 3.3 54.7
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430
TDCI - ENERGY
Index, 1997=100
700
380
600
Overall TDCI
330
Index, 1997=100
500
280 400 230 300
180 TDCI Ex. Energy
130
200
80 May-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
100 May-08
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: TD Economics.
TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 May-08
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Jan-09
Apr-09
Index, 1997=100
100 May-08
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS 110
Oct-08
TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS
Index, 1997=100
350
Aug-08
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Index, 1997=100
260
Index, 1997=100
240
105
220 100
200
95
180 160
90
140 85 80 May-08
120 100 Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
May-08
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
Aug-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Last week plotted: May 1, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES
1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 01-May-09
C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCITDCINONNONC$ US$ AGRI. PREC PRECAGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC PRECTDCI- INDEX FOREST IOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODC$ US$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 265.8 163.3
92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 164.2 129.4
83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 98.6 88.7
184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 358.1 194.0
108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 269.0 270.7
98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 222.5 140.2
99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 171.9 138.0
197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 286.8 202.1
130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 179.1 160.2
117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.0 109.9
258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 384.6 240.2
152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 297.3 335.5
137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 239.6 173.5
139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 187.4 170.9
1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.11 1.24
188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.8 182.6 166.6 166.3 166.2 164.9 159.3 154.0 157.0 158.7 157.5 161.9 167.3 160.5 161.0 161.1 157.6 159.5
130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.0 134.7 129.6 129.5 130.1 130.6 130.3 128.3 127.7 126.2 126.1 127.7 128.1 126.9 128.3 131.4 130.9 130.9
99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.4 93.7 92.6 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.6 87.8 87.4 86.5 86.4 84.7 85.1 85.4 85.9 85.7
240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2 199.7 199.0 196.0 185.7 177.3 183.6 188.3 185.9 193.0 203.0 191.1 190.7 188.1 181.7 185.5
228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7 255.4 270.2 273.6 278.5 292.5 291.0 277.0 275.3 278.7 281.4 274.9 263.6 265.5 267.5 268.4
145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6 139.5 137.8 140.6 138.6 131.6 130.3 131.9 132.5 136.1 137.4 137.8 144.1 153.4 149.0 148.5
133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7 140.7 140.8 140.3 138.7 132.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 136.8 135.1 135.8 138.1 137.3 140.5 141.2
236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.3 217.0 206.1 209.6 203.3 203.5 197.1 193.6 196.8 204.2 202.4 203.6 206.0 200.8 198.6 195.1 193.7 191.9
164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 160.7 160.1 160.3 163.2 159.1 161.1 161.2 161.3 160.1 162.3 162.1 160.6 157.6 158.7 158.3 159.1 160.9 157.5
124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 114.9 111.3 114.6 115.6 111.5 110.7 111.3 112.9 112.3 113.0 112.3 108.8 106.3 105.9 105.0 103.4 105.6 103.1
302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7 251.7 243.4 241.9 229.7 222.9 230.2 242.2 239.0 242.6 249.9 239.0 235.2 227.8 223.4 223.1
286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0 322.0 330.4 337.6 344.5 367.7 364.9 356.5 353.9 350.3 346.3 343.8 325.0 321.6 328.8 323.0
182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2 175.9 168.5 173.6 171.5 165.4 163.4 169.7 170.2 171.1 169.2 172.4 177.7 185.8 183.2 178.6
167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0 177.3 172.2 173.2 171.5 166.0 165.2 170.6 171.6 172.0 166.3 169.9 170.3 166.3 172.7 169.9
1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.23 1.25 1.23 1.21 1.23 1.20
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD
1.2 -0.6 -54.1 -48.0
0.0 3.1 -32.3 -34.2
-0.2 1.2 -16.5 -10.0
2.1 -2.9 -61.9 -53.9
0.3 -2.4 -1.0 -5.4
-0.4 7.7 -50.4 -53.4
0.5 4.0 -27.2 -36.1
-0.9 -4.4 -45.6 -36.1
-2.2 -0.8 -19.8 -19.1
-2.3 -2.6 -1.0 10.8
-0.1 -6.6 -54.9 -43.3
-1.8 -6.1 17.4 16.4
-2.5 3.6 -41.3 -42.6
-1.6 0.0 -13.7 -21.3
-2.1 -3.8 18.5 23.1
52-week low 154.0 52-week high 405.5
126.1 192.5
84.7 109.0
177.3 602.7
219.1 303.5
130.3 294.3
131.8 200.6
191.9 413.0
157.5 208.2
95.9 126.7
222.9 613.9
248.7 367.7
163.4 325.7
162.4 260.6
0.98 1.29
125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1
94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1
203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3
232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8
138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6
122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1
206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7
155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8
117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8
253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5
288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2
172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7
151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3
1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12
FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3
Weekly Commodity Price Report
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS () ENERGY
FOREST PRODUCTS
LUMBER
PULP
NEWSPRINT
OIL
NAT GAS
PRECIOUS METALS
COAL
GOLD
SILVER
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 200.33
554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 681.67
504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 714.44
31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 44.77
5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 4.33
28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 70.64
365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 901.98
4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 12.55
WEEKLY AVG 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 01-May-09
225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00 197.00 193.00 191.00 199.00 200.00 199.00 197.00 198.00 193.00 192.00 196.00 202.00 208.00 212.00 210.00
793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50 709.84 707.25 701.11 688.09 682.27 680.37 679.34 667.67 661.14 660.23 657.17 652.70 645.38 646.00 647.15
765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 665.00 665.00 665.00 665.00 665.00
45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91 42.18 42.52 40.50 36.91 36.99 41.81 43.26 45.68 49.46 53.09 50.32 50.46 49.80 47.83 51.07
6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40 4.80 4.75 4.84 4.71 4.32 4.16 4.24 3.88 3.83 3.92 3.64 3.60 3.55 3.45 3.29
76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46 88.19 83.15 78.17 80.28 76.34 65.32 61.70 62.10 60.30 61.39 60.79 63.24 63.12 63.11 62.26
769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75 854.25 902.95 912.15 924.30 968.80 967.40 921.70 915.60 927.75 932.85 914.35 877.63 882.38 891.35 892.90
9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77 11.45 12.21 12.62 13.34 14.25 13.74 13.00 12.97 13.00 13.59 12.92 12.28 12.59 12.41 12.61
0.2 -1.5 -26.5 -22.4 645.38 890.30
0.0 0.0 -2.2 13.0 665.00 775.00
6.8 1.5 -55.7 -56.0 32.37 142.46
-4.6 -9.7 -69.4 -52.1 3.29 13.19
-1.3 2.4 -53.2 -40.9 60.30 194.79
0.2 -2.3 2.7 -1.8 734.50 971.35
1.7 -2.4 -24.0 -28.3 9.48 18.83
657.50 675.00 640.00 700.00
666.25 620.00 600.00 650.00
41.75 48.00 40.00 55.00
4.16 4.75 4.20 5.15
65.00 74.25 65.00 80.00
928.75 856.25 935.00 800.00
12.93 12.64 13.00 12.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -0.9 4 weeks ago 7.1 52 weeks ago -19.8 % Chg. YTD -18.9 52-week low 191.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 195.75 Annual Avg 2010 238.75 Dec 2009 200.00 Dec 2010 280.00
*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 2. 9.5 5.7 5.9 2.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4. 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2)
NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM
COPPER
NICKEL
CANOLA
CATTLE
177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 320.72
104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 131.63
272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 365.43
82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 84.54
55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 60.98
55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00 51.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 45.00 43.75 43.50 42.50 42.50 42.00 40.00 40.50 42.00 44.00
316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71 336.73 341.01 337.61 326.44 301.13 304.26 303.07 307.88 314.53 304.72 312.31 318.05 305.02 310.86 323.21
127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03 133.12 136.24 131.11 129.34 126.33 125.20 121.86 124.49 130.29 135.50 133.03 130.22 131.46 129.52 134.64
309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14 362.15 365.24 364.10 371.61 352.11 349.03 342.64 345.02 362.29 366.63 362.77 373.21 383.20 389.14 398.39
84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59 83.30 81.93 83.26 84.45 81.96 81.80 84.46 83.10 84.51 85.26 84.02 86.47 87.72 87.79 85.46
58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96 59.79 57.20 57.50 57.36 61.18 58.34 61.17 61.64 62.47 60.89 60.21 59.16 63.44 70.64 62.46
-3.1 6.5 -37.7 -48.5 48.17 102.50
4.8 4.8 -32.3 -39.7 40.00 64.50
4.0 3.5 -32.0 -46.1 301.13 491.02
4.0 1.2 -42.6 -38.2 121.86 255.90
2.4 9.8 -32.5 -40.1 309.23 663.23
-2.7 1.7 -7.6 -7.2 81.80 103.38
-11.6 3.7 -16.0 1.1 54.74 86.44
49.25 62.50 50.00 70.00
46.00 54 47.00 58.00
301.25 310.00 300.00 325.00
123.75 127.00 120.00 130.00
337.50 347.50 325.00 360.00
86.50 95.00 90.00 98.00
61.25 70.25 65.00 75.00
URANIUM
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 62.62
81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 166.08
4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 4.83
37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 55.53
11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 45.76
WEEKLY AVG 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 6-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 3-Apr-09 10-Apr-09 17-Apr-09 24-Apr-09 1-May-09
71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73 60.57 59.51 62.27 62.22 58.65 58.14 58.52 58.79 61.69 62.80 62.19 65.09 66.19 64.13 64.57
153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38 145.25 146.38 149.27 155.31 146.34 150.37 160.41 163.58 172.60 179.89 182.39 197.41 213.41 203.09 197.80
4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74 4.98 5.11 5.18 4.85 4.45 4.40 4.41 4.37 4.49 4.37 4.44 4.84 5.49 5.22 5.08
51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47 52.57 50.31 51.36 51.72 49.19 49.44 52.07 54.78 55.30 57.19 58.57 60.35 66.36 64.35 62.37
-2.6 8.4 -49.5 -54.2 128.93 398.07
-2.6 14.5 -60.7 -63.0 4.24 12.61
141.25 148.75 140.00 160.00
4.66 5.14 4.80 5.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 0.7 4 weeks ago 3.8 52 weeks ago -50.7 % Chg. YTD -50.4 52-week low 58.14 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 56.75 Annual Avg 2010 61.25 Dec 2009 57.00 Dec 2010 65.00
WHEAT
**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb)
Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS BARLEY
ZINC
HOGS
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 4.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7. 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
May 4, 2009
www.td.com/economics
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The TorontoDominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. Weekly Commodity Price Report
May 4, 2009
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