Weekly Commodity Price Report
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TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report March 30, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars rose 3.3% last week, driven largely by gains in energy prices. Precious and base metals prices also offered support, while agricultural and forest product prices provided some offset. In Canadian dollar terms, the index was up by a more modest 1.2%. • Crude oil prices shot up 7% last week, hitting a 4month high of US$54 per barrel on Thursday. The rally came on the back of increased optimism of a global recovery and some bullish data suggesting that fuel consumption rose during the week prior. However, crude oil fundamentals do not support a price in the mid-$50’s, and this morning, prices have fallen back below US$51 per barrel as renewed economic concerns filtered into the market. • Natural gas prices also found support from economic optimism, advancing by 2.5%. However, this increase masks the downtrend seen throughout the week as a bearish U.S storage report and a gloomy economic outlook dominated the markets.
• Reports indicating a jump in Chinese imports triggered a surge copper and zinc prices early in the week. And despite some renewed recession concerns weighing on these markets as the week progressed, both metals ended the week up, with a 4.2% rise in copper prices outshining the 3.4% increase in zinc prices. • Precious metals prices also gained last week, as the U.S. dollar slumped against the euro, boosting demand for bullion an alternative investment. Silver outperformed its yellow counterpart, with prices rising 4.5% on the week, as investors sought a cheaper alternative to gold. • Wheat prices slid 3.1% last week, as forecasts for rain in the dry U.S. Plains and signs of weaker demand put downward pressure on the market. Wheat prices, although down nearly 50% from year-ago levels, are still above historical averages.
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SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, MARCH 27th TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products Ĺ Crude Oil Ĺ Silver Ĺ Copper Ĺ Barley Ĺ Zinc Ļ Hogs Ļ Nickel Ļ Wheat
LATEST WK 167.3 86.4 203.0 137.4 281.4 135.1 53.09 13.59 179.89 135.50 57.19 60.89 4.37 304.72
Weekly Commodity Price Report
PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 157.5 3.3 6.6 -47.8 US$ Sub-Indices 86.5 -0.2 -3.6 -11.9 193.0 5.2 10.6 -52.9 136.1 1.0 5.5 -55.5 278.7 1.0 -3.3 -3.8 136.8 -1.3 2.5 -36.7 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 49.46 7.3 27.0 13.00 4.5 -1.0 172.60 4.2 19.6 130.29 4.0 8.2 55.30 3.4 15.7 62.47 -2.5 4.4 4.49 -2.5 -0.6 314.53 -3.1 0.2
-49.1 -23.7 -52.6 -37.6 -45.3 6.5 -67.8 -47.5
52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW 405.5 154.0 109.0 602.7 308.0 303.5 211.7
86.4 177.3 130.3 219.1 131.8
142.5 18.8 398.1 255.9 105.1 86.4 13.2 571.3
32.4 9.5 128.9 121.9 48.2 54.7 4.2 301.1
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics TDCI - ENERGY
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430
Index, 1997=100
700
380
Index, 1997=100
600 Overall TDCI
330
500
280 400 230 300
180 TDCI Ex. Energy
130
200 100 Apr-08
80 Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: TD Economics.
TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Index, 1997=100
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS 110
Sep-08
TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS
Index, 1997=100
350
Jun-08
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
Index, 1997=100
300
Index, 1997=100
280 260
105
240 220
100
200 180
95
160 140
90
120 85 Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES
1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09
C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCITDCINONNONUS$ C$ AGRI. PREC PRECAGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC PRECTDCI- INDEX FOREST IOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODUS$ C$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 274.0 164.5
92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 166.9 129.3
83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 99.7 90.0
184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 371.3 196.6
108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 269.1 271.8
98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 228.3 137.8
99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 174.4 137.8
197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 293.8 204.5
130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 180.7 160.8
117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.3 112.0
258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 396.5 244.2
152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 294.9 338.2
137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 244.2 171.2
139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 188.7 171.3
1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.10 1.24
217.3 209.0 200.6 201.1 188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.8 182.6 166.6 166.3 166.2 164.9 159.3 154.0 157.0 158.7 157.5 161.9 167.3
137.5 135.6 134.1 136.0 130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.0 134.7 129.6 129.5 130.1 130.6 130.3 128.3 127.7 126.2 126.1 127.7 128.1
100.8 100.5 100.8 99.9 99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.4 93.7 92.6 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.6 87.8 87.4 86.5 86.4
289.9 275.6 261.0 260.3 240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2 199.7 199.0 196.0 185.7 177.3 183.6 188.3 185.9 193.0 203.0
222.6 219.1 222.8 243.0 228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7 255.4 270.2 273.6 278.5 292.5 291.0 277.0 275.3 278.7 281.4
162.4 157.4 153.5 154.2 145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6 139.5 137.8 140.6 138.6 131.6 130.3 131.9 132.5 136.1 137.4
140.7 141.6 136.5 137.5 133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7 140.7 140.8 140.3 138.7 132.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 136.8 135.1
254.7 254.6 250.8 247.4 236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.3 217.0 206.1 209.6 203.3 203.5 197.1 193.6 196.8 204.2 202.4 203.6 206.0
161.1 165.2 167.7 167.3 164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 160.7 160.1 160.3 163.2 159.1 161.1 161.2 161.3 160.1 162.3 162.1 160.6 157.6
118.1 122.5 126.0 122.9 124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 114.9 111.3 114.6 115.6 111.5 110.7 111.3 112.9 112.3 113.0 112.3 108.8 106.3
339.8 335.8 326.4 320.2 302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7 251.7 243.4 241.9 229.7 222.9 230.2 242.2 239.0 242.6 249.9
260.9 266.9 278.6 299.0 286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0 322.0 330.4 337.6 344.5 367.7 364.9 356.5 353.9 350.3 346.3
190.4 191.7 191.9 189.7 182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2 175.9 168.5 173.6 171.5 165.4 163.4 169.7 170.2 171.1 169.2
165.0 172.5 170.7 169.1 167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0 177.3 172.2 173.2 171.5 166.0 165.2 170.6 171.6 172.0 166.3
1.17 1.22 1.25 1.23 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.23
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD
3.3 6.6 -47.8 -46.0
0.3 0.3 -35.7 -34.3
-0.2 -3.6 -11.9 -8.0
5.2 10.6 -52.9 -51.2
1.0 -3.3 -3.8 -5.5
1.0 5.5 -55.5 -53.9
-1.3 2.5 -36.7 -37.6
1.2 4.6 -36.9 -33.1
-1.8 -1.5 -22.2 -18.6
-2.3 -5.3 6.5 14.0
3.0 8.5 -43.0 -39.6
-1.1 -5.1 16.4 17.2
-1.1 3.5 -46.1 -42.9
-3.3 0.6 -23.5 -22.6
-2.1 -1.8 21.0 23.9
52-week low 154.0 52-week high 405.5
126.1 198.8
86.4 109.0
177.3 602.7
219.1 303.5
130.3 308.0
131.8 211.7
193.6 413.0
157.6 208.2
95.9 126.7
222.9 613.9
248.7 367.7
163.4 325.7
162.4 260.6
0.98 1.29
125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1
94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1
203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3
232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8
138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6
122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1
206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7
155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8
117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8
253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5
288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2
172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7
151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3
1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12
FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3
Weekly Commodity Price Report
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1) ENERGY
FOREST PRODUCTS LUMBER
PULP
NEWSPRINT
OIL
NAT GAS
PRECIOUS METALS COAL
GOLD
SILVER
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 198.31
554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 693.97
504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 733.46
31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 42.79
5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 4.64
28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 73.77
365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 905.92
4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 12.55
WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09
220.00 221.00 224.00 226.00 225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00 197.00 193.00 191.00 199.00 200.00 199.00 197.00 198.00 193.00 192.00
831.87 824.41 823.18 799.55 793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50 709.84 707.25 701.11 688.09 682.27 680.37 679.34 667.67 661.14 660.23
775.00 775.00 775.00 775.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00
64.31 58.64 52.34 52.50 45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91 42.18 42.52 40.50 36.91 36.99 41.81 43.26 45.68 49.46 53.09
6.74 6.65 6.68 6.66 6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40 4.80 4.75 4.84 4.71 4.32 4.16 4.24 3.88 3.83 3.92
104.02 104.00 85.69 78.19 76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46 88.19 83.15 78.17 80.28 76.34 65.32 61.70 62.10 60.30 61.39
742.85 734.50 749.30 817.10 769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75 854.25 902.95 912.15 924.30 968.80 967.40 921.70 915.60 927.75 932.85
10.19 9.61 9.49 10.38 9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77 11.45 12.21 12.62 13.34 14.25 13.74 13.00 12.97 13.00 13.59
-0.1 -3.0 -25.0 -20.9 660.23 890.30
0.0 -4.1 10.2 18.3 660.00 775.00
7.3 27.0 -49.1 -56.2 32.37 142.46
2.5 -5.7 -57.7 -46.0 3.83 13.19
1.8 -6.0 -48.6 -36.7 60.30 194.79
0.5 -3.6 -0.6 -1.9 734.50 971.35
4.5 -1.0 -23.7 -28.5 9.48 18.83
657.50 675.00 640.00 700.00
666.25 620.00 600.00 650.00
41.75 48.00 40.00 55.00
4.16 4.75 4.20 5.15
65.00 74.25 65.00 80.00
928.75 856.25 935.00 800.00
12.93 12.64 13.00 12.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -0.5 4 weeks ago -3.5 52 weeks ago -19.3 % Chg. YTD -19.6 52-week low 191.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 195.75 Annual Avg 2010 238.75 Dec 2009 200.00 Dec 2010 280.00
*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 21.1 9.5 5.7 5.9 52.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4.5 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2) NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM
COPPER
NICKEL
CANOLA
CATTLE
177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 323.34
104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 131.58
272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 359.31
82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 83.86
55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 60.14
46.00 48.00 53.00 55.00 55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00 51.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 45.00 43.75 43.50 42.50 42.50
318.45 329.71 318.90 321.46 316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71 336.73 341.01 337.61 326.44 301.13 304.26 303.07 307.88 314.53 304.72
161.42 153.81 143.80 142.34 127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03 133.12 136.24 131.11 129.34 126.33 125.20 121.86 124.49 130.29 135.50
370.84 354.67 344.70 343.10 309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14 362.15 365.24 364.10 371.61 352.11 349.03 342.64 345.02 362.29 366.63
93.53 91.99 86.79 86.71 84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59 83.30 81.93 83.26 84.45 81.96 81.80 84.46 83.10 84.51 85.26
54.74 55.50 55.67 57.99 58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96 59.79 57.20 57.50 57.36 61.18 58.34 61.17 61.64 62.47 60.89
3.4 15.7 -45.3 -51.8 48.17 105.12
0.0 -5.6 -41.8 -40.1 42.50 71.00
-3.1 0.2 -47.5 -47.9 301.13 571.34
4.0 8.2 -37.6 -36.3 121.86 255.90
1.2 5.0 -42.1 -40.8 309.23 663.23
0.9 4.2 -5.6 -8.6 81.80 103.38
-2.5 4.4 6.5 3.7 54.74 86.44
49.25 62.50 50.00 70.00
46.00 54 47.00 58.00
301.25 310.00 300.00 325.00
123.75 127.00 120.00 130.00
337.50 347.50 325.00 360.00
86.50 95.00 90.00 98.00
61.25 70.25 65.00 75.00
URANIUM
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 61.93
81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 153.48
4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 4.75
37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 52.89
11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 47.33
WEEKLY AVG 7-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 6-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09
89.79 86.14 81.48 78.63 71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73 60.57 59.51 62.27 62.22 58.65 58.14 58.52 58.79 61.69 62.80
180.59 168.71 159.26 165.72 153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38 145.25 146.38 149.27 155.31 146.34 150.37 160.41 163.58 172.60 179.89
5.27 4.98 4.60 4.56 4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74 4.98 5.11 5.18 4.85 4.45 4.40 4.41 4.37 4.49 4.37
50.46 51.05 52.31 55.23 51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47 52.57 50.31 51.36 51.72 49.19 49.44 52.07 54.78 55.30 57.19
4.2 19.6 -52.6 -56.2 128.93 398.07
-2.5 -0.6 -67.8 -63.6 4.24 13.18
141.25 148.75 140.00 160.00
4.66 5.14 4.80 5.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 1.8 4 weeks ago 8.0 52 weeks ago -52.3 % Chg. YTD -49.8 52-week low 58.14 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 56.75 Annual Avg 2010 61.25 Dec 2009 57.00 Dec 2010 65.00
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS BARLEY
ZINC
WHEAT
**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
HOGS
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 14.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7.3 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The TorontoDominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. Weekly Commodity Price Report
March 30, 2009
TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report March 30, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars rose 3.3% last week, driven largely by gains in energy prices. Precious and base metals prices also offered support, while agricultural and forest product prices provided some offset. In Canadian dollar terms, the index was up by a more modest 1.2%. • Crude oil prices shot up 7% last week, hitting a 4month high of US$54 per barrel on Thursday. The rally came on the back of increased optimism of a global recovery and some bullish data suggesting that fuel consumption rose during the week prior. However, crude oil fundamentals do not support a price in the mid-$50’s, and this morning, prices have fallen back below US$51 per barrel as renewed economic concerns filtered into the market. • Natural gas prices also found support from economic optimism, advancing by 2.5%. However, this increase masks the downtrend seen throughout the week as a bearish U.S storage report and a gloomy economic outlook dominated the markets.
• Reports indicating a jump in Chinese imports triggered a surge copper and zinc prices early in the week. And despite some renewed recession concerns weighing on these markets as the week progressed, both metals ended the week up, with a 4.2% rise in copper prices outshining the 3.4% increase in zinc prices. • Precious metals prices also gained last week, as the U.S. dollar slumped against the euro, boosting demand for bullion an alternative investment. Silver outperformed its yellow counterpart, with prices rising 4.5% on the week, as investors sought a cheaper alternative to gold. • Wheat prices slid 3.1% last week, as forecasts for rain in the dry U.S. Plains and signs of weaker demand put downward pressure on the market. Wheat prices, although down nearly 50% from year-ago levels, are still above historical averages.
Dina Cover 416-982-2555
SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, MARCH 27th TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products Ĺ Crude Oil Ĺ Silver Ĺ Copper Ĺ Barley Ĺ Zinc Ļ Hogs Ļ Nickel Ļ Wheat
LATEST WK 167.3 86.4 203.0 137.4 281.4 135.1 53.09 13.59 179.89 135.50 57.19 60.89 4.37 304.72
Weekly Commodity Price Report
PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 157.5 3.3 6.6 -47.8 US$ Sub-Indices 86.5 -0.2 -3.6 -11.9 193.0 5.2 10.6 -52.9 136.1 1.0 5.5 -55.5 278.7 1.0 -3.3 -3.8 136.8 -1.3 2.5 -36.7 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 49.46 7.3 27.0 13.00 4.5 -1.0 172.60 4.2 19.6 130.29 4.0 8.2 55.30 3.4 15.7 62.47 -2.5 4.4 4.49 -2.5 -0.6 314.53 -3.1 0.2
-49.1 -23.7 -52.6 -37.6 -45.3 6.5 -67.8 -47.5
52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW 405.5 154.0 109.0 602.7 308.0 303.5 211.7
86.4 177.3 130.3 219.1 131.8
142.5 18.8 398.1 255.9 105.1 86.4 13.2 571.3
32.4 9.5 128.9 121.9 48.2 54.7 4.2 301.1
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics TDCI - ENERGY
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430
Index, 1997=100
700
380
Index, 1997=100
600 Overall TDCI
330
500
280 400 230 300
180 TDCI Ex. Energy
130
200 100 Apr-08
80 Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: TD Economics.
TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Index, 1997=100
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS 110
Sep-08
TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS
Index, 1997=100
350
Jun-08
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
Index, 1997=100
300
Index, 1997=100
280 260
105
240 220
100
200 180
95
160 140
90
120 85 Apr-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Mar 27, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES
1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09
C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCITDCINONNONUS$ C$ AGRI. PREC PRECAGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC PRECTDCI- INDEX FOREST IOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODUS$ C$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 274.0 164.5
92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 166.9 129.3
83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 99.7 90.0
184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 371.3 196.6
108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 269.1 271.8
98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 228.3 137.8
99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 174.4 137.8
197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 293.8 204.5
130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 180.7 160.8
117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.3 112.0
258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 396.5 244.2
152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 294.9 338.2
137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 244.2 171.2
139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 188.7 171.3
1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.10 1.24
217.3 209.0 200.6 201.1 188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.8 182.6 166.6 166.3 166.2 164.9 159.3 154.0 157.0 158.7 157.5 161.9 167.3
137.5 135.6 134.1 136.0 130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.0 134.7 129.6 129.5 130.1 130.6 130.3 128.3 127.7 126.2 126.1 127.7 128.1
100.8 100.5 100.8 99.9 99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.4 93.7 92.6 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.6 87.8 87.4 86.5 86.4
289.9 275.6 261.0 260.3 240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2 199.7 199.0 196.0 185.7 177.3 183.6 188.3 185.9 193.0 203.0
222.6 219.1 222.8 243.0 228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7 255.4 270.2 273.6 278.5 292.5 291.0 277.0 275.3 278.7 281.4
162.4 157.4 153.5 154.2 145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6 139.5 137.8 140.6 138.6 131.6 130.3 131.9 132.5 136.1 137.4
140.7 141.6 136.5 137.5 133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7 140.7 140.8 140.3 138.7 132.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 136.8 135.1
254.7 254.6 250.8 247.4 236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.3 217.0 206.1 209.6 203.3 203.5 197.1 193.6 196.8 204.2 202.4 203.6 206.0
161.1 165.2 167.7 167.3 164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 160.7 160.1 160.3 163.2 159.1 161.1 161.2 161.3 160.1 162.3 162.1 160.6 157.6
118.1 122.5 126.0 122.9 124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 114.9 111.3 114.6 115.6 111.5 110.7 111.3 112.9 112.3 113.0 112.3 108.8 106.3
339.8 335.8 326.4 320.2 302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7 251.7 243.4 241.9 229.7 222.9 230.2 242.2 239.0 242.6 249.9
260.9 266.9 278.6 299.0 286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0 322.0 330.4 337.6 344.5 367.7 364.9 356.5 353.9 350.3 346.3
190.4 191.7 191.9 189.7 182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2 175.9 168.5 173.6 171.5 165.4 163.4 169.7 170.2 171.1 169.2
165.0 172.5 170.7 169.1 167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0 177.3 172.2 173.2 171.5 166.0 165.2 170.6 171.6 172.0 166.3
1.17 1.22 1.25 1.23 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.23
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD
3.3 6.6 -47.8 -46.0
0.3 0.3 -35.7 -34.3
-0.2 -3.6 -11.9 -8.0
5.2 10.6 -52.9 -51.2
1.0 -3.3 -3.8 -5.5
1.0 5.5 -55.5 -53.9
-1.3 2.5 -36.7 -37.6
1.2 4.6 -36.9 -33.1
-1.8 -1.5 -22.2 -18.6
-2.3 -5.3 6.5 14.0
3.0 8.5 -43.0 -39.6
-1.1 -5.1 16.4 17.2
-1.1 3.5 -46.1 -42.9
-3.3 0.6 -23.5 -22.6
-2.1 -1.8 21.0 23.9
52-week low 154.0 52-week high 405.5
126.1 198.8
86.4 109.0
177.3 602.7
219.1 303.5
130.3 308.0
131.8 211.7
193.6 413.0
157.6 208.2
95.9 126.7
222.9 613.9
248.7 367.7
163.4 325.7
162.4 260.6
0.98 1.29
125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1
94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1
203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3
232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8
138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6
122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1
206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7
155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8
117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8
253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5
288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2
172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7
151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3
1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12
FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3
Weekly Commodity Price Report
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1) ENERGY
FOREST PRODUCTS LUMBER
PULP
NEWSPRINT
OIL
NAT GAS
PRECIOUS METALS COAL
GOLD
SILVER
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 198.31
554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 693.97
504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 733.46
31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 42.79
5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 4.64
28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 73.77
365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 905.92
4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 12.55
WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09
220.00 221.00 224.00 226.00 225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00 197.00 193.00 191.00 199.00 200.00 199.00 197.00 198.00 193.00 192.00
831.87 824.41 823.18 799.55 793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50 709.84 707.25 701.11 688.09 682.27 680.37 679.34 667.67 661.14 660.23
775.00 775.00 775.00 775.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00
64.31 58.64 52.34 52.50 45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91 42.18 42.52 40.50 36.91 36.99 41.81 43.26 45.68 49.46 53.09
6.74 6.65 6.68 6.66 6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40 4.80 4.75 4.84 4.71 4.32 4.16 4.24 3.88 3.83 3.92
104.02 104.00 85.69 78.19 76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46 88.19 83.15 78.17 80.28 76.34 65.32 61.70 62.10 60.30 61.39
742.85 734.50 749.30 817.10 769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75 854.25 902.95 912.15 924.30 968.80 967.40 921.70 915.60 927.75 932.85
10.19 9.61 9.49 10.38 9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77 11.45 12.21 12.62 13.34 14.25 13.74 13.00 12.97 13.00 13.59
-0.1 -3.0 -25.0 -20.9 660.23 890.30
0.0 -4.1 10.2 18.3 660.00 775.00
7.3 27.0 -49.1 -56.2 32.37 142.46
2.5 -5.7 -57.7 -46.0 3.83 13.19
1.8 -6.0 -48.6 -36.7 60.30 194.79
0.5 -3.6 -0.6 -1.9 734.50 971.35
4.5 -1.0 -23.7 -28.5 9.48 18.83
657.50 675.00 640.00 700.00
666.25 620.00 600.00 650.00
41.75 48.00 40.00 55.00
4.16 4.75 4.20 5.15
65.00 74.25 65.00 80.00
928.75 856.25 935.00 800.00
12.93 12.64 13.00 12.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -0.5 4 weeks ago -3.5 52 weeks ago -19.3 % Chg. YTD -19.6 52-week low 191.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 195.75 Annual Avg 2010 238.75 Dec 2009 200.00 Dec 2010 280.00
*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 21.1 9.5 5.7 5.9 52.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4.5 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2) NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM
COPPER
NICKEL
CANOLA
CATTLE
177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 323.34
104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 131.58
272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 359.31
82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 83.86
55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 60.14
46.00 48.00 53.00 55.00 55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00 51.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 45.00 43.75 43.50 42.50 42.50
318.45 329.71 318.90 321.46 316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71 336.73 341.01 337.61 326.44 301.13 304.26 303.07 307.88 314.53 304.72
161.42 153.81 143.80 142.34 127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03 133.12 136.24 131.11 129.34 126.33 125.20 121.86 124.49 130.29 135.50
370.84 354.67 344.70 343.10 309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14 362.15 365.24 364.10 371.61 352.11 349.03 342.64 345.02 362.29 366.63
93.53 91.99 86.79 86.71 84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59 83.30 81.93 83.26 84.45 81.96 81.80 84.46 83.10 84.51 85.26
54.74 55.50 55.67 57.99 58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96 59.79 57.20 57.50 57.36 61.18 58.34 61.17 61.64 62.47 60.89
3.4 15.7 -45.3 -51.8 48.17 105.12
0.0 -5.6 -41.8 -40.1 42.50 71.00
-3.1 0.2 -47.5 -47.9 301.13 571.34
4.0 8.2 -37.6 -36.3 121.86 255.90
1.2 5.0 -42.1 -40.8 309.23 663.23
0.9 4.2 -5.6 -8.6 81.80 103.38
-2.5 4.4 6.5 3.7 54.74 86.44
49.25 62.50 50.00 70.00
46.00 54 47.00 58.00
301.25 310.00 300.00 325.00
123.75 127.00 120.00 130.00
337.50 347.50 325.00 360.00
86.50 95.00 90.00 98.00
61.25 70.25 65.00 75.00
URANIUM
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 61.93
81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 153.48
4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 4.75
37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 52.89
11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 47.33
WEEKLY AVG 7-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 6-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09
89.79 86.14 81.48 78.63 71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73 60.57 59.51 62.27 62.22 58.65 58.14 58.52 58.79 61.69 62.80
180.59 168.71 159.26 165.72 153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38 145.25 146.38 149.27 155.31 146.34 150.37 160.41 163.58 172.60 179.89
5.27 4.98 4.60 4.56 4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74 4.98 5.11 5.18 4.85 4.45 4.40 4.41 4.37 4.49 4.37
50.46 51.05 52.31 55.23 51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47 52.57 50.31 51.36 51.72 49.19 49.44 52.07 54.78 55.30 57.19
4.2 19.6 -52.6 -56.2 128.93 398.07
-2.5 -0.6 -67.8 -63.6 4.24 13.18
141.25 148.75 140.00 160.00
4.66 5.14 4.80 5.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 1.8 4 weeks ago 8.0 52 weeks ago -52.3 % Chg. YTD -49.8 52-week low 58.14 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 56.75 Annual Avg 2010 61.25 Dec 2009 57.00 Dec 2010 65.00
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS BARLEY
ZINC
WHEAT
**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
HOGS
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 14.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7.3 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
March 30, 2009
www.td.com/economics
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The TorontoDominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. Weekly Commodity Price Report
March 30, 2009
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