Weekly Commodity Price Report
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TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report April 6, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars slid by 3.8% last week, driven by significant declines in energy and precious metals prices. Excluding energy, the index edged down only slightly, losing 0.2% on the week. The total index is down 50% from year ago levels, while the index excluding energy is down by a more modest 35%. • Following six weekly gains, crude oil prices lost some steam last week, falling by 5%. An increased possibility of GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy and a build in U.S. inventories weighed on prices early in the week, pushing them below the US$50 per barrel mark. And despite a small rally on Thursday after the G20 meeting instilled some optimism in investors, another dismal U.S. employment report pressured prices down as the week came to a close, as fears of further demand destruction trickled into the market. • Natural gas prices sank 7% last week as concerns of declining demand dominated the market. In Japan – the world’s largest LNG importer – two key importers
stated that they will be reducing LNG purchases this year. With excess storage capacity, much of the surplus will likely be headed to the North American market. • Precious metals also took a hit last week, as a rally in equity markets and speculation that the economy will improve reduced safe haven demand. Silver prices lost the most ground, falling by 5%, while gold prices shed a more muted 2%. • Bucking the trend of the rest of the agricultural subindex, wheat prices jumped 2.5% last week. Spillover from a rally in the soybean market and concerns about cold weather heading towards key wheat growing areas in the U.S. provided support to prices. • Lumber prices were also up last week, rising by 2.1%. A seasonal uptick in demand coupled with lower supplies lead to reduced inventories. Still, with North American homebuilding activity at extremely low levels, any upward pressure on lumber prices is likely to be limited.
Dina Cover 416-982-2555
SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, APRIL 3rd TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products Ĺ Wheat Ĺ Zinc Ĺ Lumber Ļ Barley Ļ Gold Ļ Silver Ļ Crude Oil Ļ Natural Gas
LATEST WK 160.9 86.7 191.1 137.8 274.9 135.8 312.31 58.57 196.00 133.03 914.35 12.92 50.32 3.64
Weekly Commodity Price Report
PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 167.3 -3.8 1.4 -49.9 US$ Sub-Indices 86.4 0.3 -1.3 -12.5 203.0 -5.9 1.5 -56.1 137.4 0.3 4.5 -54.7 281.4 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4 135.1 0.5 2.4 -34.3 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 304.72 2.5 3.0 57.19 2.4 12.5 192.00 2.1 -0.5 135.50 -1.8 9.2 932.85 -2.0 -0.8 13.59 -4.9 -0.6 53.09 -5.2 16.3 3.92 -7.1 -14.2
-44.5 -43.5 -17.6 -39.7 1.3 -25.2 -51.4 -61.7
52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW 405.5 154.0 109.0 602.7 308.0 303.5 211.7
86.4 177.3 130.3 219.1 131.8
571.3 105.1 285.0 255.9 971.4 18.8 142.5 13.2
301.1 48.2 191.0 121.9 734.5 9.5 32.4 3.6
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics TDCI - ENERGY
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430
Index, 1997=100
700
380
Index, 1997=100
600 Overall TDCI
330
500
280 400 230 300
180 TDCI Ex. Energy
130
200 100 Apr-08
80 Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Index, 1997=100
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS 110
Sep-08
TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS
Index, 1997=100
350
Jul-08
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: TD Economics.
TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Index, 1997=100
300
Index, 1997=100
280 105
260 240
100
220 200
95
180 160
90
140 120
85 Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES
1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 ytd YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09
C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCITDCINONNONC$ US$ AGRI. PREC PRECAGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC PRECTDCI- INDEX FOREST IOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODC$ US$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 272.3 305.9 164.3
92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 166.3 196.7 129.2
83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 99.5 98.0 89.8
184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 368.5 405.0 196.2
108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 269.2 287.2 272.0
98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 226.9 299.4 137.8
99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 173.8 219.7 137.7
197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 292.4 307.2 204.3
130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 180.4 197.6 160.7
117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.3 98.4 111.7
258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 394.1 406.8 243.8
152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 295.6 288.4 338.6
137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 243.1 300.7 171.3
139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 188.5 220.6 171.2
1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.10 1.00 1.24
217.3 209.0 200.6 201.1 188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.8 182.6 166.6 166.3 166.2 164.9 159.3 154.0 157.0 158.7 157.5 161.9 167.3 160.9
137.5 135.6 134.1 136.0 130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.0 134.7 129.6 129.5 130.1 130.6 130.3 128.3 127.7 126.2 126.1 127.7 128.1 127.8
100.8 100.5 100.8 99.9 99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.4 93.7 92.6 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.6 87.8 87.4 86.5 86.4 86.7
289.9 275.6 261.0 260.3 240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2 199.7 199.0 196.0 185.7 177.3 183.6 188.3 185.9 193.0 203.0 191.1
222.6 219.1 222.8 243.0 228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7 255.4 270.2 273.6 278.5 292.5 291.0 277.0 275.3 278.7 281.4 274.9
162.4 157.4 153.5 154.2 145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6 139.5 137.8 140.6 138.6 131.6 130.3 131.9 132.5 136.1 137.4 137.8
140.7 141.6 136.5 137.5 133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7 140.7 140.8 140.3 138.7 132.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 136.8 135.1 135.8
254.7 254.6 250.8 247.4 236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.3 217.0 206.1 209.6 203.3 203.5 197.1 193.6 196.8 204.2 202.4 203.6 206.0 201.3
161.1 165.2 167.7 167.3 164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 160.7 160.1 160.3 163.2 159.1 161.1 161.2 161.3 160.1 162.3 162.1 160.6 157.6 159.9
118.1 122.5 126.0 122.9 124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 114.9 111.3 114.6 115.6 111.5 110.7 111.3 112.9 112.3 113.0 112.3 108.8 106.3 108.4
339.8 335.8 326.4 320.2 302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7 251.7 243.4 241.9 229.7 222.9 230.2 242.2 239.0 242.6 249.9 239.0
260.9 266.9 278.6 299.0 286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0 322.0 330.4 337.6 344.5 367.7 364.9 356.5 353.9 350.3 346.3 343.8
190.4 191.7 191.9 189.7 182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2 175.9 168.5 173.6 171.5 165.4 163.4 169.7 170.2 171.1 169.2 172.4
165.0 172.5 170.7 169.1 167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0 177.3 172.2 173.2 171.5 166.0 165.2 170.6 171.6 172.0 166.3 169.9
1.17 1.22 1.25 1.23 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.23 1.25
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD
-3.8 1.4 -49.9 -46.3
-0.2 1.3 -34.8 -34.3
0.3 -1.3 -12.5 -8.3
-5.9 1.5 -56.1 -51.6
-2.3 -0.8 -2.4 -5.3
0.3 4.5 -54.7 -54.0
0.5 2.4 -34.3 -37.3
-2.3 -1.4 -38.4 -33.5
1.4 -1.5 -19.9 -18.7
2.0 -4.0 7.5 13.5
-4.4 -1.3 -46.0 -40.1
-0.7 -3.5 20.0 17.4
1.9 1.6 -44.3 -43.0
2.2 -0.4 -19.2 -22.4
1.6 -2.8 22.9 23.9
52-week low 154.0 52-week high 405.5
126.1 198.8
86.4 109.0
177.3 602.7
219.1 303.5
130.3 308.0
131.8 211.7
193.6 413.0
157.6 208.2
95.9 126.7
222.9 613.9
248.7 367.7
163.4 325.7
162.4 260.6
0.98 1.29
125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1
94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1
203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3
232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8
138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6
122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1
206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7
155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8
117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8
253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5
288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2
172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7
151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3
1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12
FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3
Weekly Commodity Price Report
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1) ENERGY
FOREST PRODUCTS LUMBER
PULP
NEWSPRINT
OIL
NAT GAS
PRECIOUS METALS COAL
GOLD
SILVER
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 198.14
554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 691.34
504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 731.43
31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 43.33
5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 4.57
28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 72.84
365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 906.52
4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 12.58
WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09
220.00 221.00 224.00 226.00 225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00 197.00 193.00 191.00 199.00 200.00 199.00 197.00 198.00 193.00 192.00 196.00
831.87 824.41 823.18 799.55 793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50 709.84 707.25 701.11 688.09 682.27 680.37 679.34 667.67 661.14 660.23 657.17
775.00 775.00 775.00 775.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00
64.31 58.64 52.34 52.50 45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91 42.18 42.52 40.50 36.91 36.99 41.81 43.26 45.68 49.46 53.09 50.32
6.74 6.65 6.68 6.66 6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40 4.80 4.75 4.84 4.71 4.32 4.16 4.24 3.88 3.83 3.92 3.64
104.02 104.00 85.69 78.19 76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46 88.19 83.15 78.17 80.28 76.34 65.32 61.70 62.10 60.30 61.39 60.79
742.85 734.50 749.30 817.10 769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75 854.25 902.95 912.15 924.30 968.80 967.40 921.70 915.60 927.75 932.85 914.35
10.19 9.61 9.49 10.38 9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77 11.45 12.21 12.62 13.34 14.25 13.74 13.00 12.97 13.00 13.59 12.92
-0.5 -3.3 -25.3 -21.2 657.17 890.30
0.0 0.0 6.8 17.4 660.00 775.00
-5.2 16.3 -51.4 -55.9 32.37 142.46
-7.1 -14.2 -61.7 -47.2 3.64 13.19
-1.0 -1.5 -49.2 -37.6 60.30 194.79
-2.0 -0.8 1.3 -1.6 734.50 971.35
-4.9 -0.6 -25.2 -28.3 9.48 18.83
657.50 675.00 640.00 700.00
666.25 620.00 600.00 650.00
41.75 48.00 40.00 55.00
4.16 4.75 4.20 5.15
65.00 74.25 65.00 80.00
928.75 856.25 935.00 800.00
12.93 12.64 13.00 12.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 2.1 4 weeks ago -0.5 52 weeks ago -17.6 % Chg. YTD -19.4 52-week low 191.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 195.75 Annual Avg 2010 238.75 Dec 2009 200.00 Dec 2010 280.00
*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 21.1 9.5 5.7 5.9 52.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4.5 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2) NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM
COPPER
NICKEL
ZINC
URANIUM
BARLEY
CANOLA
CATTLE
177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 322.56
104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 131.68
272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 359.55
82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 83.87
55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 60.14
46.00 48.00 53.00 55.00 55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00 51.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 45.00 43.75 43.50 42.50 42.50 42.00
318.45 329.71 318.90 321.46 316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71 336.73 341.01 337.61 326.44 301.13 304.26 303.07 307.88 314.53 304.72 312.31
161.42 153.81 143.80 142.34 127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03 133.12 136.24 131.11 129.34 126.33 125.20 121.86 124.49 130.29 135.50 133.03
370.84 354.67 344.70 343.10 309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14 362.15 365.24 364.10 371.61 352.11 349.03 342.64 345.02 362.29 366.63 362.77
93.53 91.99 86.79 86.71 84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59 83.30 81.93 83.26 84.45 81.96 81.80 84.46 83.10 84.51 85.26 84.02
54.74 55.50 55.67 57.99 58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96 59.79 57.20 57.50 57.36 61.18 58.34 61.17 61.64 62.47 60.89 60.21
2.4 12.5 -43.5 -51.3 48.17 105.12
-1.2 -4.0 -40.8 -40.1 42.00 71.00
2.5 3.0 -44.5 -47.6 301.13 571.34
-1.8 9.2 -39.7 -36.6 121.86 255.90
-1.1 5.9 -39.3 -40.7 309.23 663.23
-1.5 -0.5 -3.5 -8.2 81.80 103.38
-1.1 -1.6 6.2 3.9 54.74 86.44
49.25 62.50 50.00 70.00
46.00 54 47.00 58.00
301.25 310.00 300.00 325.00
123.75 127.00 120.00 130.00
337.50 347.50 325.00 360.00
86.50 95.00 90.00 98.00
61.25 70.25 65.00 75.00
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 61.95
81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 155.55
4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 4.73
37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 53.30
11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 46.95
WEEKLY AVG 7-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 6-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 3-Apr-09
89.79 86.14 81.48 78.63 71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73 60.57 59.51 62.27 62.22 58.65 58.14 58.52 58.79 61.69 62.80 62.19
180.59 168.71 159.26 165.72 153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38 145.25 146.38 149.27 155.31 146.34 150.37 160.41 163.58 172.60 179.89 182.39
5.27 4.98 4.60 4.56 4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74 4.98 5.11 5.18 4.85 4.45 4.40 4.41 4.37 4.49 4.37 4.44
50.46 51.05 52.31 55.23 51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47 52.57 50.31 51.36 51.72 49.19 49.44 52.07 54.78 55.30 57.19 58.57
1.4 13.7 -52.7 -56.0 128.93 398.07
1.5 0.7 -66.1 -63.8 4.24 13.18
141.25 148.75 140.00 160.00
4.66 5.14 4.80 5.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -1.0 4 weeks ago 6.3 52 weeks ago -52.4 % Chg. YTD -50.0 52-week low 58.14 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 56.75 Annual Avg 2010 61.25 Dec 2009 57.00 Dec 2010 65.00
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS WHEAT
**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
HOGS
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 14.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7.3 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The TorontoDominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. Weekly Commodity Price Report
April 6, 2009
TD Economics
Weekly Commodity Price Report April 6, 2009 HIGHLIGHTS
• The TDCI in U.S. dollars slid by 3.8% last week, driven by significant declines in energy and precious metals prices. Excluding energy, the index edged down only slightly, losing 0.2% on the week. The total index is down 50% from year ago levels, while the index excluding energy is down by a more modest 35%. • Following six weekly gains, crude oil prices lost some steam last week, falling by 5%. An increased possibility of GM and Chrysler filing for bankruptcy and a build in U.S. inventories weighed on prices early in the week, pushing them below the US$50 per barrel mark. And despite a small rally on Thursday after the G20 meeting instilled some optimism in investors, another dismal U.S. employment report pressured prices down as the week came to a close, as fears of further demand destruction trickled into the market. • Natural gas prices sank 7% last week as concerns of declining demand dominated the market. In Japan – the world’s largest LNG importer – two key importers
stated that they will be reducing LNG purchases this year. With excess storage capacity, much of the surplus will likely be headed to the North American market. • Precious metals also took a hit last week, as a rally in equity markets and speculation that the economy will improve reduced safe haven demand. Silver prices lost the most ground, falling by 5%, while gold prices shed a more muted 2%. • Bucking the trend of the rest of the agricultural subindex, wheat prices jumped 2.5% last week. Spillover from a rally in the soybean market and concerns about cold weather heading towards key wheat growing areas in the U.S. provided support to prices. • Lumber prices were also up last week, rising by 2.1%. A seasonal uptick in demand coupled with lower supplies lead to reduced inventories. Still, with North American homebuilding activity at extremely low levels, any upward pressure on lumber prices is likely to be limited.
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SUMMARY FOR WEEK ENDING FRIDAY, APRIL 3rd TDCI US$ Index (1997=100) Forest Products Energy Non-Prec. Metals & Minerals Precious Metals Agricultural Products Ĺ Wheat Ĺ Zinc Ĺ Lumber Ļ Barley Ļ Gold Ļ Silver Ļ Crude Oil Ļ Natural Gas
LATEST WK 160.9 86.7 191.1 137.8 274.9 135.8 312.31 58.57 196.00 133.03 914.35 12.92 50.32 3.64
Weekly Commodity Price Report
PRIOR WK % CHG. 1-WK % CHG. 4-WKS % CHG. 52-WKS 167.3 -3.8 1.4 -49.9 US$ Sub-Indices 86.4 0.3 -1.3 -12.5 203.0 -5.9 1.5 -56.1 137.4 0.3 4.5 -54.7 281.4 -2.3 -0.8 -2.4 135.1 0.5 2.4 -34.3 Biggest Movers this Week (per cent) 304.72 2.5 3.0 57.19 2.4 12.5 192.00 2.1 -0.5 135.50 -1.8 9.2 932.85 -2.0 -0.8 13.59 -4.9 -0.6 53.09 -5.2 16.3 3.92 -7.1 -14.2
-44.5 -43.5 -17.6 -39.7 1.3 -25.2 -51.4 -61.7
52-WK HIGH 52-WK-LOW 405.5 154.0 109.0 602.7 308.0 303.5 211.7
86.4 177.3 130.3 219.1 131.8
571.3 105.1 285.0 255.9 971.4 18.8 142.5 13.2
301.1 48.2 191.0 121.9 734.5 9.5 32.4 3.6
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics TDCI - ENERGY
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDEX (TDCI) 430
Index, 1997=100
700
380
Index, 1997=100
600 Overall TDCI
330
500
280 400 230 300
180 TDCI Ex. Energy
130
200 100 Apr-08
80 Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
TDCI- NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS 350
300
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100 Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Index, 1997=100
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: FT / Haver Analytics, Ux Weekly.
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: WSJ / Haver Analytics.
TDCI - FOREST PRODUCTS 110
Sep-08
TDCI - PRECIOUS METALS
Index, 1997=100
350
Jul-08
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: GlobalCoal, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: TD Economics.
TDCI - AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
Index, 1997=100
300
Index, 1997=100
280 105
260 240
100
220 200
95
180 160
90
140 120
85 Apr-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
100 Apr-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: Random Lengths, Pulp & Paper Weekly.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
Jul-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Last week plotted: Apr 3, 2008. Source: WCE, WSJ / Haver Analytics.
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
TD COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (TDCI) US$ SUB-INDICES
1997=100 ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2008 ytd YTD 2009 WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09
C$ SUB-INDICES
TDCITDCINONNONC$ US$ AGRI. PREC PRECAGRI. TDCI- INDEX FOREST PREC PRECTDCI- INDEX FOREST IOUS METALS PRODPRODIOUS METALS PRODPRODC$ US$ exexINDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS INDEX energy UCTS ENERGY METALS & MIN. UCTS C$/ US$ 140.8 168.6 222.9 227.3 252.1 272.3 305.9 164.3
92.9 114.2 123.2 158.9 189.9 166.3 196.7 129.2
83.8 100.4 102.1 101.8 98.0 99.5 98.0 89.8
184.4 218.0 313.4 289.4 308.6 368.5 405.0 196.2
108.6 125.1 136.2 188.4 217.3 269.2 287.2 272.0
98.2 135.1 158.3 255.6 337.8 226.9 299.4 137.8
99.2 105.2 105.6 110.6 141.2 173.8 219.7 137.7
197.6 219.3 270.0 257.7 270.0 292.4 307.2 204.3
130.4 148.5 149.3 180.2 204.2 180.4 197.6 160.7
117.6 130.6 123.6 115.5 105.3 109.3 98.4 111.7
258.7 283.6 379.6 328.2 329.7 394.1 406.8 243.8
152.4 162.8 164.9 213.7 232.4 295.6 288.4 338.6
137.7 175.8 191.8 289.9 364.1 243.1 300.7 171.3
139.2 136.8 127.9 125.5 150.4 188.5 220.6 171.2
1.40 1.30 1.21 1.13 1.07 1.10 1.00 1.24
217.3 209.0 200.6 201.1 188.1 178.4 172.6 162.2 176.8 182.6 166.6 166.3 166.2 164.9 159.3 154.0 157.0 158.7 157.5 161.9 167.3 160.9
137.5 135.6 134.1 136.0 130.7 129.3 129.8 130.8 132.0 134.7 129.6 129.5 130.1 130.6 130.3 128.3 127.7 126.2 126.1 127.7 128.1 127.8
100.8 100.5 100.8 99.9 99.1 97.0 95.5 95.1 94.4 93.7 92.6 91.7 91.2 89.7 89.9 89.8 89.6 87.8 87.4 86.5 86.4 86.7
289.9 275.6 261.0 260.3 240.2 223.1 211.5 190.6 217.5 226.1 200.2 199.7 199.0 196.0 185.7 177.3 183.6 188.3 185.9 193.0 203.0 191.1
222.6 219.1 222.8 243.0 228.2 237.5 251.7 256.0 260.3 253.6 245.7 255.4 270.2 273.6 278.5 292.5 291.0 277.0 275.3 278.7 281.4 274.9
162.4 157.4 153.5 154.2 145.1 140.2 137.0 138.0 141.3 151.7 141.6 139.5 137.8 140.6 138.6 131.6 130.3 131.9 132.5 136.1 137.4 137.8
140.7 141.6 136.5 137.5 133.3 134.0 139.6 142.5 142.9 146.1 140.7 140.7 140.8 140.3 138.7 132.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 136.8 135.1 135.8
254.7 254.6 250.8 247.4 236.6 222.6 210.2 197.3 215.3 217.0 206.1 209.6 203.3 203.5 197.1 193.6 196.8 204.2 202.4 203.6 206.0 201.3
161.1 165.2 167.7 167.3 164.4 161.3 158.1 159.2 160.7 160.1 160.3 163.2 159.1 161.1 161.2 161.3 160.1 162.3 162.1 160.6 157.6 159.9
118.1 122.5 126.0 122.9 124.6 121.0 116.3 115.7 114.9 111.3 114.6 115.6 111.5 110.7 111.3 112.9 112.3 113.0 112.3 108.8 106.3 108.4
339.8 335.8 326.4 320.2 302.1 278.2 257.5 232.0 264.9 268.6 247.7 251.7 243.4 241.9 229.7 222.9 230.2 242.2 239.0 242.6 249.9 239.0
260.9 266.9 278.6 299.0 286.9 296.2 306.4 311.5 317.0 301.3 304.0 322.0 330.4 337.6 344.5 367.7 364.9 356.5 353.9 350.3 346.3 343.8
190.4 191.7 191.9 189.7 182.5 174.9 166.8 168.0 172.1 180.2 175.2 175.9 168.5 173.6 171.5 165.4 163.4 169.7 170.2 171.1 169.2 172.4
165.0 172.5 170.7 169.1 167.6 167.2 170.0 173.4 174.0 173.6 174.0 177.3 172.2 173.2 171.5 166.0 165.2 170.6 171.6 172.0 166.3 169.9
1.17 1.22 1.25 1.23 1.26 1.25 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.19 1.24 1.26 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.29 1.29 1.26 1.23 1.25
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 4 weeks ago 52 weeks ago % Chg. YTD
-3.8 1.4 -49.9 -46.3
-0.2 1.3 -34.8 -34.3
0.3 -1.3 -12.5 -8.3
-5.9 1.5 -56.1 -51.6
-2.3 -0.8 -2.4 -5.3
0.3 4.5 -54.7 -54.0
0.5 2.4 -34.3 -37.3
-2.3 -1.4 -38.4 -33.5
1.4 -1.5 -19.9 -18.7
2.0 -4.0 7.5 13.5
-4.4 -1.3 -46.0 -40.1
-0.7 -3.5 20.0 17.4
1.9 1.6 -44.3 -43.0
2.2 -0.4 -19.2 -22.4
1.6 -2.8 22.9 23.9
52-week low 154.0 52-week high 405.5
126.1 198.8
86.4 109.0
177.3 602.7
219.1 303.5
130.3 308.0
131.8 211.7
193.6 413.0
157.6 208.2
95.9 126.7
222.9 613.9
248.7 367.7
163.4 325.7
162.4 260.6
0.98 1.29
125.3 141.5 130.6 148.1
94.2 100.8 95.1 105.1
203.7 290.6 232.1 318.3
232.5 224.8 240.7 211.8
138.6 177.0 150.7 192.6
122.2 136.4 125.0 143.1
206.7 249.5 202.2 265.7
155.7 160.8 143.7 165.8
117.1 114.5 104.6 117.8
253.0 330.1 255.3 356.5
288.8 255.5 264.8 237.2
172.2 201.0 165.8 215.7
151.8 154.9 137.5 160.3
1.24 1.14 1.10 1.12
FORECAST Annual 2009 Annual 2010 Dec 2009 Dec 2010
166.4 219.7 183.8 237.3
Weekly Commodity Price Report
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES*: AVERAGE LEVELS (1) ENERGY
FOREST PRODUCTS LUMBER
PULP
NEWSPRINT
OIL
NAT GAS
PRECIOUS METALS COAL
GOLD
SILVER
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
309.09 405.08 387.35 327.02 283.79 253.33 198.14
554.62 642.12 646.27 721.83 821.12 863.98 691.34
504.81 552.02 611.86 666.83 593.58 700.77 731.43
31.16 41.69 56.85 66.12 72.74 100.15 43.33
5.51 5.88 8.92 6.74 6.98 8.88 4.57
28.13 55.19 48.91 50.29 65.69 128.96 72.84
365.38 409.41 445.46 604.03 699.01 872.53 906.52
4.95 6.71 7.36 11.58 13.44 15.05 12.58
WEEKLY AVG 07-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 05-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 02-Jan-09 09-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 06-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 06-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 03-Apr-09
220.00 221.00 224.00 226.00 225.00 221.00 213.00 210.00 209.00 207.00 203.00 197.00 193.00 191.00 199.00 200.00 199.00 197.00 198.00 193.00 192.00 196.00
831.87 824.41 823.18 799.55 793.64 758.90 743.75 742.21 740.01 728.77 715.50 709.84 707.25 701.11 688.09 682.27 680.37 679.34 667.67 661.14 660.23 657.17
775.00 775.00 775.00 775.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 765.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 755.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 735.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00 705.00
64.31 58.64 52.34 52.50 45.50 44.71 39.65 32.37 42.50 44.51 36.91 42.18 42.52 40.50 36.91 36.99 41.81 43.26 45.68 49.46 53.09 50.32
6.74 6.65 6.68 6.66 6.44 5.69 5.67 5.42 5.66 5.85 5.40 4.80 4.75 4.84 4.71 4.32 4.16 4.24 3.88 3.83 3.92 3.64
104.02 104.00 85.69 78.19 76.09 78.25 77.81 80.56 79.19 81.44 81.46 88.19 83.15 78.17 80.28 76.34 65.32 61.70 62.10 60.30 61.39 60.79
742.85 734.50 749.30 817.10 769.30 798.30 845.05 859.94 874.83 850.65 823.75 854.25 902.95 912.15 924.30 968.80 967.40 921.70 915.60 927.75 932.85 914.35
10.19 9.61 9.49 10.38 9.49 10.17 10.87 11.01 11.15 11.06 10.77 11.45 12.21 12.62 13.34 14.25 13.74 13.00 12.97 13.00 13.59 12.92
-0.5 -3.3 -25.3 -21.2 657.17 890.30
0.0 0.0 6.8 17.4 660.00 775.00
-5.2 16.3 -51.4 -55.9 32.37 142.46
-7.1 -14.2 -61.7 -47.2 3.64 13.19
-1.0 -1.5 -49.2 -37.6 60.30 194.79
-2.0 -0.8 1.3 -1.6 734.50 971.35
-4.9 -0.6 -25.2 -28.3 9.48 18.83
657.50 675.00 640.00 700.00
666.25 620.00 600.00 650.00
41.75 48.00 40.00 55.00
4.16 4.75 4.20 5.15
65.00 74.25 65.00 80.00
928.75 856.25 935.00 800.00
12.93 12.64 13.00 12.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago 2.1 4 weeks ago -0.5 52 weeks ago -17.6 % Chg. YTD -19.4 52-week low 191.00 52-week high 285.00 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 195.75 Annual Avg 2010 238.75 Dec 2009 200.00 Dec 2010 280.00
*MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). FOREST PRODUCTS Lumber: Random Lengths' Framing Lumber Composite ($/1000 Bd Ft) Pulp: NBSK, delivered in east U.S. ($/mt) Newsprint: New York ($/mt) ENERGY Oil: Domestic Spot Market Price: West Texas Intermediate, Cushing ($/Barrel) Natural Gas: Henry Hub, LA ($/mmbtu) Coal: Austr. Therm ($/mt) PRECIOUS METALS Silver: Cash price: Silver, Troy Oz, Handy & Harman Base Price ($/Troy oz) Gold: Cash Price: London Gold Bullion, PM Fix ($/Troy oz) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 21.1 9.5 5.7 5.9 52.4 23.6 27.2 1.6 4.5 0.5 4.0 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
COMMODITY PRICES**: AVERAGE LEVELS (2) NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS ALUM
COPPER
NICKEL
ZINC
URANIUM
BARLEY
CANOLA
CATTLE
177.34 186.84 197.76 216.58 302.78 455.65 322.56
104.35 98.89 91.41 108.71 175.70 202.26 131.68
272.34 282.81 238.41 268.54 396.64 530.68 359.55
82.87 81.45 87.24 86.19 93.95 93.81 83.87
55.72 53.26 68.41 64.19 65.53 66.13 60.14
46.00 48.00 53.00 55.00 55.00 54.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 53.00 51.00 51.00 48.00 48.00 47.00 47.00 45.00 43.75 43.50 42.50 42.50 42.00
318.45 329.71 318.90 321.46 316.95 319.99 332.63 341.82 344.04 347.34 334.71 336.73 341.01 337.61 326.44 301.13 304.26 303.07 307.88 314.53 304.72 312.31
161.42 153.81 143.80 142.34 127.71 127.01 136.66 140.85 139.60 144.44 133.03 133.12 136.24 131.11 129.34 126.33 125.20 121.86 124.49 130.29 135.50 133.03
370.84 354.67 344.70 343.10 309.23 319.83 334.59 344.95 351.23 375.80 363.14 362.15 365.24 364.10 371.61 352.11 349.03 342.64 345.02 362.29 366.63 362.77
93.53 91.99 86.79 86.71 84.47 83.19 85.00 86.33 86.13 86.47 83.59 83.30 81.93 83.26 84.45 81.96 81.80 84.46 83.10 84.51 85.26 84.02
54.74 55.50 55.67 57.99 58.14 58.12 62.50 61.08 59.73 63.59 60.96 59.79 57.20 57.50 57.36 61.18 58.34 61.17 61.64 62.47 60.89 60.21
2.4 12.5 -43.5 -51.3 48.17 105.12
-1.2 -4.0 -40.8 -40.1 42.00 71.00
2.5 3.0 -44.5 -47.6 301.13 571.34
-1.8 9.2 -39.7 -36.6 121.86 255.90
-1.1 5.9 -39.3 -40.7 309.23 663.23
-1.5 -0.5 -3.5 -8.2 81.80 103.38
-1.1 -1.6 6.2 3.9 54.74 86.44
49.25 62.50 50.00 70.00
46.00 54 47.00 58.00
301.25 310.00 300.00 325.00
123.75 127.00 120.00 130.00
337.50 347.50 325.00 360.00
86.50 95.00 90.00 98.00
61.25 70.25 65.00 75.00
ANNUAL AVG 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YTD 2009
65.16 78.13 86.22 116.49 119.49 117.00 61.95
81.53 130.92 167.60 305.10 322.97 316.94 155.55
4.47 6.25 6.69 11.01 16.82 9.61 4.73
37.81 47.74 62.90 148.56 146.82 85.33 53.30
11.71 18.80 29.06 47.77 98.72 63.76 46.95
WEEKLY AVG 7-Nov-08 14-Nov-08 21-Nov-08 28-Nov-08 5-Dec-08 12-Dec-08 19-Dec-08 26-Dec-08 2-Jan-09 9-Jan-09 16-Jan-09 23-Jan-09 30-Jan-09 6-Feb-09 13-Feb-09 20-Feb-09 27-Feb-09 6-Mar-09 13-Mar-09 20-Mar-09 27-Mar-09 3-Apr-09
89.79 86.14 81.48 78.63 71.74 66.96 64.99 67.71 66.34 69.81 65.73 60.57 59.51 62.27 62.22 58.65 58.14 58.52 58.79 61.69 62.80 62.19
180.59 168.71 159.26 165.72 153.85 142.00 134.31 128.93 131.84 147.63 146.38 145.25 146.38 149.27 155.31 146.34 150.37 160.41 163.58 172.60 179.89 182.39
5.27 4.98 4.60 4.56 4.24 4.40 4.41 4.41 4.89 5.55 4.74 4.98 5.11 5.18 4.85 4.45 4.40 4.41 4.37 4.49 4.37 4.44
50.46 51.05 52.31 55.23 51.93 48.90 48.17 50.81 51.44 56.73 55.47 52.57 50.31 51.36 51.72 49.19 49.44 52.07 54.78 55.30 57.19 58.57
1.4 13.7 -52.7 -56.0 128.93 398.07
1.5 0.7 -66.1 -63.8 4.24 13.18
141.25 148.75 140.00 160.00
4.66 5.14 4.80 5.50
Latest week, % chg. from Week ago -1.0 4 weeks ago 6.3 52 weeks ago -52.4 % Chg. YTD -50.0 52-week low 58.14 52-week high 145.55 FORECAST Annual Avg 2009 56.75 Annual Avg 2010 61.25 Dec 2009 57.00 Dec 2010 65.00
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS WHEAT
**MEASURES & QUOTED PRICES ( $ is US$ unless stated otherwise; C$ prices converted to US$ using daily C$/US$ exchange rate ). NON-PRECIOUS METALS & MINERALS Aluminum: LME Aluminum, 99.7% Purity: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Copper: LME Copper, Grade A: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Nickel: LME Nickel: Closing Cash Price ($/lb) Zinc: LME Zinc: Closing Cash Price (Cents/lb) Uranium: Ux U308 ($/lb) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Wheat: 1 CWRS, Canada: St Lawrence, 13.5% (C$/mt) Barley: Canada: Cash Prices: Feed Barley: Lethbridge: Grade 1 CW (C$/mt) Canola: Canada: Cash Pr: Canola: Instore Vancouver: Grade 1 Canada NCC (C$/mt) Cattle: Live Cattle Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Hogs: Lean Hogs Futures Price: 1st Expiring Contract Open (Cents/lb) Sources: WSJ, FT, Ux Weekly, Random Lenghts, Pulp & Paper Weekly, GlobalCoal, Comtex, WCE, FRBNY / Haver Analytics.
Weekly Commodity Price Report
HOGS
WEIGHT ( per cent ) 14.7 6.6 2.6 3.4 1.0 1.1 7.3 2.8 0.3 1.2 1.8 1.2 Overall TDCI weights based on Canadian exports 2003-05
April 6, 2009
www.td.com/economics
This report is provided by TD Economics for customers of TD Bank Financial Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Financial Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Financial Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The TorontoDominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Financial Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered. Weekly Commodity Price Report
April 6, 2009
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