Thayer Vietnam's Regional Role 2006

Vietnam’s Emerging Regional Role

Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to Junior Officers Management and Strategic Studies Course Class 4/06 Royal Australian Naval College HMAS Creswell Jervis Bay, ACT, August 31, 2006

Outline

1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On 2.  The Military and Doi Moi 3.  Vietnam’s Regional Role

1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On Economic Change •  •  •  •  •  • 

End of central planning Decollectivisation of agriculture Market economy with socialist orientations Encouragement of direct foreign investment Poverty reduction High GDP growth rates

Doi Moi: Twenty Years On Social Change •  •  •  •  • 

Commercialization of services State control of religion Ethnic minority unrest Negative phenomena Spread of the Internet

Doi Moi: Twenty Years On Political Change •  Regularisation of politics •  New state Constitution (1992) and Electoral Laws •  Enhancing the role of the National Assembly and rule by/of law •  Administrative reform of state apparatus •  Corruption

Tenth Party Congress April 2006

Nong Duc Manh re-elected Secretary General

Corruption • Nam Cam criminal network 2003 • Ministry of Transport, PMU 18 scandal 2006

Transparency International Corruption Index •  •  •  •  • 

2001 75th of 91 countries 2002 85th of 102 countries 2003 100th of 233 countries 2004 102nd of 145 countries 2005 107th of 158 countries –  Ranked above the Philippines, PNG, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Myanmar

2. The Military and Doi Moi Political Role •  Defend the country and the socialist regime •  Dual-role elites (party-military-government) •  A bloc within the Vietnam Communist Party and National Assembly •  Central Military Party Committee •  ‘Tong Cuc 2’ – military intelligence

Military Delegates to 10th Party Congress

Dual Role Elites •  Military delegates to 10th National Party Congress cast ballots for the party leadership •  Military block on Central Committee (~10%)

General Phung Quang Thanh •  Member of the Politburo (April 2006) •  Senior LT GEN (2003) •  Vice Minister of National Defence and Chief of the General Staff (2001-06) •  Member of the Party Central Committee (2001-present) •  Commander Military Region 1 •  Trained in the Soviet Union

Minister of National Defence (June 2006)

The Military and Doi Moi •  Politburo Resolution No. 2 (1987) –  Withdrawal from Cambodia and Laos –  Demobilisation –  Budget

•  Disciplinary Problems •  Collapse of the Soviet Union

Vietnam’s Defence Expenditure 1990-02

Government Spending on Defence

Defence and GDP Growth

The Military and Doi Moi

•  •  •  •  • 

Economic and commercial activities Military-economic zones Military professionalisation Defence diplomacy Limited force modernisation

White Paper 2004 •  Vietnam must guard against the danger of lagging further behind economically •  Vietnam faces the threat of schemes and ploys by external hostile elements in collusion with internal reactionaries •  Disputes on border and maritime territories •  Non-traditional security issues

Defence Diplomacy • 

Cold War alignments • 

• 

Non-Aligned Movement • 

• 

USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos, Yugoslavia

Defence relations with more than 60 countries (2003) •  • 

33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted

Defence Diplomacy •  Accrediting of Defence Attaches •  Protocol visits •  Staff College/National Defence Institute exchanges •  Goodwill visits – External Relations Department – Song and Dance Ensemble •  Naval ship visits

High-Level Exchanges

Trends in High-Level Exchanges

Defence Diplomacy

Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand North Korea, Laos, Germany

Density of Defence Exchanges • 44 - Laos

• 17 - India

• 11 - Singapore

• 6 - Italy •  Malaysia •  Ukraine

• 36 - China

• 15 - Philippines • 10 - Australia •  France •  Indonesia

• 4 - Poland •  Slovak

• 26 - Thailand

• 13 - Russia

• 9 - Japan • 8 - Cuba

• 3 - Algeria •  Belgium •  Brunei

• 22 - Cambodia

• 12 - United States

• 7 - Myanmar •  N Korea •  S Korea

• Angola, Belarus, Bulgaria, Congo R, Mozambique, Netherlands, UK

Density of High-Level Exchanges 44% ASEAN 20% Traditional Allies 17% Major Powers China, United States, Japan

8% ‘New Europe’ 11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America and Others

Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005 •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand 3 South Korea 3 United States 2 Italy

•  •  •  •  •  •  • 

2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia 1 Japan 1 New Zealand

Memorandum of Understanding •  Annual work plans –  exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.

•  Address specific bilateral issues –  Border security (land and maritime) –  MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay

•  Combined military activities –  Medical research –  Search and Rescue –  Coordinated naval patrols

Defence Cooperation Agreements •  •  •  •  • 

India – (1994 and 2000) Russia (October 1998) Australia – post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs • 

Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea and Germany

Vietnam’s Defence Expenditure, 1991-03

Government Defence Expenditure

Procurement and Defence Industry Cooperation •  •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities

Sales and Servicing Contracts

•  •  •  •  •  • 

Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003) Ukraine (2002) India (2002) Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland, Poland ASEAN States – Singapore Other Suppliers – Israel, North Korea

Air Force Modernization •  Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22 fighter/ground attack aircraft •  Su-30 preferred air superiority fighter –  Funding a major constraint –  May opt for less expensive Su-22

•  Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyond visual range air-to-air missiles •  Military communications satellite?

Air Force Modernisation

Czech L-39C Trainers

Su-27 UBK Flanker

MiG-21 Fishbed Upgrades

Su-22 M4 Fitter

4 Su-30 MKKs Fulcrums 2003

Air Defence

S-300PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) - 2003

Deterrence capability in South China Sea

Tarantul Class (Type 1241)

4 acquired from Russia in 1996-98

Tarantul 3 Corvette

Two Molnya 1241.8 FAC (M) delivered in 2005, eight to be assembled in Vietnam

Anti-shipping Capability Styx missile

Sunburn missile

BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)

2 acquired 1998 BPS 500 now under production in Vietnam

KBO 2000 Corvette

Project 2100 Recently Cancelled

Yugo-Class Midget Submarine

Land Force Modernisation •  Main Battle Tanks –  Finland 70 (T-54 and T-55) –  Poland (150 T-72)

•  Multiple Rocket Launch System –  Czech

•  Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCs –  Singapore?

Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher

Short Range Ballistic Missiles?

Scud C ballistic missile

Reportedly sold by North Korea

3. Vietnam’s Regional Role

•  •  •  • 

Political Bureau Resolution No. 13 (1988) 7th National Party Congress (1991) Membership in ASEAN and ARF Directions and Strategies for Defending Vietnam in the New Era –  8th Central Committee Plenum (July 2003)

Vietnam’s Neighbours • 

Laos – ‘special solidarity and comprehensive cooperation’ • 

•  • 

Cambodia – border security, MIAs China – border security •  • 

• 

internal security,border control, MIAs

Military Region commanders Coordinated naval patrols

Thailand – maritime security

Defence Relations with China •  Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1991) •  Long-term Cooperative Framework Agreement (1999) –  ‘looking to the future, boosting good neighborly friendship and exploring all-around collaboration’

•  Coordinated naval patrols in Tonkin Gulf

Defence Relations with China •  First round of consultations on defensive security (Beijing, April 2005) •  Chinese Commission for Science, Technology and National Defence Industry delegation visits Hanoi (July 2005) •  General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visits Beijing (July 2005)

Defence Relations with the United States •  Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA) remains •  Normalisation of diplomatic relations (1995) •  IMET – International Military Education and Training •  Visits by Commander Pacific Command (most recent July 2006)

U.S. Naval Port Visits USS Vandegrift, Saigon, November 2003

USS Curtis Wilbur, Da Nang, July 2004 USS Gary, Saigon, March 2005 USS Patriot and USS Salvor, Saigon, July 2006

Ministerial Exchange Visits

2003

2000

2006

Defence Relations with the U.S. •  15th Asia-Pacific Military Medicine Conference held in Hanoi co-sponsored by Vietnam and the U.S. (May 2005) •  Prime Minister Phan Van Khai meets with President George Bush in Washington, D.C. ( June 21, 2005) •  Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld visits Hanoi (2006)

Military Capability

•  Maritime Capabilities –  Maritime Patrol - 48 assorted vessels –  Anti-Surface Warfare - 13 ships with SSMs –  Maritime Land Strike - no real capability –  Anti-Submarine Warfare - no real capability –  Maritime Air Defence - no ability to coordinate –  Amphibious Lodgment/Marine Forces –  Mine Warfare - 10 assorted vessels

Military Capability •  Land Capabilities –  Infantry Forces - 58 Inf Divisions –  Combined Arms Ground Forces •  3 Mech Inf and 10 Armoured Div, 10 Arty Bde, –  Special Forces –  Land Force C3I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence) –  Reserves

Military Capability

•  Air Capabilities –  Air Defence - MiG-21, SA-2/3 SAMs •  AA-2/8/10 air to air missiles –  Long Range Strike - Su-27, Su-30 –  Close Air Support - Su-22M series –  Transport - An-2, An-26, Yak-40

Military Capability •  Other Capabilities –  Chemical and Biological •  suspected Saren and mustard gas (1991) •  Scud B/C Short Range Ballistic Missiles

–  Information or Knowledge Warfare •  SIGINT •  ELINT

–  Radiological and Nuclear (none)

Conclusion •  •  •  • 

Bringing the Vietnamese ‘Military Back In’ VPA an important domestic political actor Military also a commercial actor Priority on naval, air defence and air force modernisation –  South China Sea contingencies

•  Potential regional role – ASEAN •  Rising China – balance not containment

Future Developments •  PNTR status with the U.S. •  Membership in the World Trade Organisation •  Host to APEC Summit •  Visit by President George Bush •  Non-permanent membership on UN Security Council •  Modest contribution to UN peacekeeping?

Vietnam’s Regional Role

Discussion Questions and Answers