Thayer Vietnam Political Developments In 2009

Political Legitimacy of the OneOne-Party State: Challenges and Responses

Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009 The Australian National University Canberra, November 1919-20,2009

Outline of Presentation Political Legitimacy Bauxite Mining Controversy Catholic land issues Crackdown on Political Dissent

Political Legitimacy Z Normative status conferred on political p leaders, governing institutions, and decisions by those who are governed Z Embodies notions of moral authority Z Sources: Z Charismatic Z Traditional g and p performance Z Rational-legal

1. Bauxite Miningg Controversy y

• 10th Party Congress April 2006 5-year SocioE Economic i Plan Pl

VINACOMIN & CHALCO

• Framework Agreement November 2006

• Politburo approval • Nghi Quyet No. 167 Prime Minister’s Decision November Decision, 1, 2007

Location of bauxite mine sites: Dak Nong and Lam Dong provinces

Bauxite Production Process

Bauxite Miningg Time Line

Hanoi Seminar on bauxite and 2nd open Võ Nguyên letter by th Giáp open Giáp 9 April letter 5th J January

Politburo reviews i bauxite issue 16th April

Petition of 135 intellectuals deli ered to delivered National Assembly 17th April

Prime Minister orders review 30th April

Bauxite Miningg Controversy y Võ Nguyên Giáp (May 7)

“I hope you pay attention to bauxite mining in the Central Highlands…”

National Assembly (May 27)

Deputy Nguyễn Minh Thuyết, Son La province, Question and Answer Session

Anti--Bauxite Coalition Anti Environmentalists

Retired state officials

Social scientists

S i ti t Scientists

Retired et ed military ta y officers

Other Ot e academics acade cs & intellectuals

Economists

General Vo Nguyen Giap

Some NA Deputies

Other Anti Anti--Bauxite Opponents pp

Catholic priests’ anti-bauxite anti bauxite petition, April

Facebook and blog sites raise bauxite and China issues 2009

Thich Quang Do, UBCV, opposes bauxite mining, March 29

Pastoral Letter by Cardinal Pham Minh Man, Archbishop of Saigon opposing Saigon, bauxite mining, May 31

Lawsuit in Hanoi People’s Court and People’s Supreme Court, June 11, July 3

Response Z Environmental E i l concerns and d impact i on ethnic minorities to be taken into account Z National Assembly limited to questions only Z Chinese company fined Z Bauxite mining to proceed

2. Catholic Land Issues Z 20th July J l incident i id t att Tam T Tòa Church, Quang Binh province - 11 arrested Z Alleged All d police li brutality b t lit Z Gangs assault Catholics Z O Orchestrated h d campaign i by b state media Z 26 July & 2 August C h li stage mass Catholics protests in 3 provinces Z 8 August 178 parishes in Vinh i h diocese di hold h ld protests

Tam Tòa Protests

Tam Tòa Protests

Tam Tòa Protests

Tam Tòa Protests

Catholic Bishops call for dialogue with Government and amendment to 2003 Land Law Law. Catholics ‘are are committed to working for good of country’.

Response

3. Crackdown on Dissent Z 9th Plenum Central Committee of the Vietnam Communist Party (5-14 January) Z Difficulties: ‘acts of sabotage by hostile forces’ Z Tô Huy Rứa appointed to Politburo. Z Secretary y of the VCP Central Committee and head of Commission on Information and Education (Popularization and Education, Propaganda ad Education). Education)

Trầần Huỳ Tr Huỳnh Duy y Th Thứ ức Z Former Director One Connection Internet Z Avid blogger Z ‘Plotted to set up political party to replace VCP VCP’

French trained information technology specialist arrested M 24 May

Z Charged with ‘spreading propaganda p p g against g the state’

Lê Côngg Định Địịnh Z In contact with Viet Tan and Vietnam Democratic Party Z Avid blogger Z Corruption cases – Japanese ODA and award of bauxite contract A American i trained t i d lawyer l arrested June 13

Z Raised questions regarding relations with China

Trầần Khả Tr Khải Thanh Thủ Thủy Z Novelist, poet, essayist who wrote on Internet, edited To Quoc Z 2006 subject to h harassment t and d public bli denunciation Z Assaulted and arrested 9th October

Pro-Democracy Banners

Hai Phong 16 Aug 08 (above) and Hai Duong Nam Dinh 7 Sep 08 (below)

Hanoi 28 Jul 08

Haiphong Six On Trial

Nguyễn Tiến Trung

Trầần Anh Kim, Tr Kim Nguy Nguyễễn Tiế Tiến Trung and Vũ Vũ Hùng

Tried and convicted September 2009

Bloggers gg & Journalists Targeted g Z Huy Đức, blogged under name ‘Osin’, fired from Sài Gòn Tiếp ế Thị newspaper Z Bùi ù Thanh a Hiếu, ếu, b blogged ogged as ‘Người Ngườ Buôn uô G Gió’ ó (Wind Trader) arrested in August Z Phạm Ðoan Trang, Trang blogged about 1954 partition, critical of Chinese territorial claims Z Nguyễn ễ Ngọc Như h Quỳnh, h blogged bl d under d name ‘Mẹ Nấm’ (Mother Mushroom)

Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban y 16-August g 1,, 2009 May

General Directorate II

Political Implications p

Id l Ideology & Security bloc

Antibauxite coalition

Prime Minister

A ti AntiChinese sentiment

Towards the 11th Congress g January y 2011

Interpreting Politics Z Long Le – three distinct groups Z StratFor – factional in-fighting Z Alex Vuving – modernisers –v- anti-imperialists Z Ed Malesky – winning coalitions must be fashioned Z Martin Gainsborough – nothing important is decided by a national party congress; patronage rules!

‘Perfect Perfect Storm Storm’ Party-State g y Legitimacy

AntiChinese nationalism

Bauxite Mining Issue

Conclusion Handling of bauxite mining issue

The ‘Chinese question’

Political Legitimacy of the OneOne-Party State: Challenges and Responses

Carlyle A. Thayer Presentation to Vietnam Update 2009 The Australian National University Canberra, November 1919-20,2009