Thayer Vietnam Political Developments In 2008

Political Overview Carlyle A. Thayer

Vietnam Update The Australian National University November 6-7, 2008

2008 Year of Economic Calamity Outline 1.  Framing Political Analysis 2.  Formal Politics 3.  Informal Politics 4.  Party-State Response 5.  Reconsidering Political Analysis

Indicators Index

Ranking

Organisation

Global Competitiveness Report 2008/09

70 out of 131

World Economic Forum

Corruption Perceptions Index 2008

121 out of 180

Transparency International

Index of Economic Freedom 2008

135 out of 157

Heritage Foundation/The Wall Street Journal

World Wide Press Freedom 168 out of Index 2008 173

Reporters Without Borders

①  Framing Political Analysis Conceptualizing state-society relations: •  Dominating state (bureaucratic polity) –  Mono-organisational socialism

•  Mobilizational corporatism •  Dialogical (everyday politics)

①  Formal Politics

6th Plenum (14-22 January) •  Resolution on continued improvement of the institutions for a socialist orientated market economy •  Reform of salary, social insurance and allowances for those who had rendered service for the country (2008-2012) •  Party Central Inspection Commission membership expanded

7th Plenum (9-17 July) •  Three resolutions: –  On strengthening the party’s leadership towards youth-related work –  On building the intellectual circle –  On agriculture, farmers and rural areas.

•  Assigned the Politburo to make an assessment and recommend policies to overcome weaknesses and shortcomings in order to implementing socio-economic tasks for the second half of the year.

Resolution 10/2008/NQ-CP issued April 17, 2008

National Assembly Quốc Hội

Nguyen Phu Trong - Chair 12th legislature • 3rd Session (6 May-7 June) • 4th Session (16 October-15 November)

8th Plenum (2-4 October) •  Considered a report on socio-economic development and 2008 budget spending plus major tasks for 2009 by Nguyen Sinh Hung. •  2009 top priority to achieve single digit inflation rate by 2010, thus gradually stabilizing the macro-economy with growth rate kept at an appropriate and sustainable level

③  Informal Politics •  •  •  •  • 

Pro-Democracy Activism Labour Strikes Media Reporting of Corruption Catholics Land Protests in Hanoi Ethnic Minorities and Religious Freedom in the Central Highlands

Pro-Democracy Activism

Southern office National Assembly

Hanoi July 28, 2008

Labour Strikes in Viet Nam

Source: Kerkvliet 2008b and Vietnam Investment Review, August 25, 2008

Labour Strike Da Nang, 30th January

10,000 Workers Strike at Keyhinge Toy Plan, Da Nang,January 30, 2008

Reasons for Strikes •  Inflation •  Increased productivity quotas without pay •  Overtime without compensation •  Denial of annual leave •  Delay in wages •  Inadequate meal allowance/poor meals

•  Lack of allowances (sick and maternity leave) •  Long shifts •  Enforced overtime •  No contracts •  Health and safety •  Inadequate annual bonus •  Social insurance unpaid

The Media and Corruption • Press break PMU 18 scandal • Transport Minister resigns • Deputy Minister and head of PMU 18 arrested • Press campaign called off 2006 • Deputy Minister released and exonerated • Press resume reporting on scandal • Reporters arrested

The Media and Corruption • Journalists from Thanh Nien and Tuoi Tre and their police informants arrested, tried and convicted of ‘abuse of power’ In August, press credentials revoked for 5 journalists and editors from 4 newspapers and press credentials withdrawn from 2 other reporters. In October two editors of Dai Doan Ket notified of dismissal

Catholic Church-State Land Disputes Former Vatican Embassy 42 Nha Chung

Thai Ha Parish 178 Nguyen Luong Bang

Catholic Church-State Land Disputes Peaceful Prayer Vigils

Mass Rallies of Solidarity

Catholic Church-State Land Disputes Police Intervention

Organised Gangs

Catholic Church-State Land Disputes New Public Park 42 Nha Chung

Another New Public Park 178 Nguyen Luong Bang

Religious Freedom Unified Buddhist Church of Viet Nam

Degar ethnic minority House Church Christians

Thich Quang Do New Supreme Patriarch

Puih H'Bat arrested April 9, 2008

④  Party-State Relations

Supporters of Party Secretary General

Supporters of Prime Minister

Five Deputy Prime Ministers PM Nguyen Tan Dung

Nguyen Sinh Hung

Pham Gia Khiem

Truong Vinh Trong

Nguyen Thien Nhan

Hoang Trung Hai

Cabinet Composition 8th Congress 1996

5

Pre-date PM Dung

9th Congress 2001

7

PM Dung’s cohorts

10

New comers to spearhead reforms

10th Congress 2006

⑤  Reframing Political Analysis •  •  •  •  •  •  • 

Bring the party back in Leaders and role conflict Factions and factionalism Sectoral politics Political economy Patron-client relations Beyond workers and peasants –  the role of intellectuals and clergy

•  The media –  journalists, Internet, blogs, Bishop’s letters, New Horizon Radio

Vietnam’s Power Elite Secretary General

State President

Permanent Secretary Party Secretariat

Prime Minister

Chair National Assembly Standing Committee

Performance Legitimacy

?

Leninist, Mono-organisational Socialism, Market-Leninism, Soft Authoritarian?

Vietnam Communist Party

The State

Armed Forces

Mass Organisations

Political Overview: Vietnam in 2008 Abstract & Bibliography Carlyle A. Thayer Paper presented to Vietam Update 2008, The Australian National University, Canberra, November 6-7, 2008

 

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Political Overview: Vietnam in 2008 Carlyle A. Thayer*

Abstract This paper presents an overview of the major political developments in Vietnam during 2008. The paper opens with a brief consideration of how political scientists have framed their analysis of politics in Vietnam. The main body of the paper is divided into three parts. Part one considers “formal politics”, that is, decision-making by the Vietnam Communist Party and the National Assembly. In particular, the paper analyses the main outcomes of the sixth, seventh and eighth plenary sessions of the party Central Committee, held January, July, and October, respectively. Next, the paper discusses the legislative outcomes of the third and fourth sessions of the National Assembly that met in May-June and OctoberNovember. Part two of the paper explores “informal politics” in Vietnam during the year. In particular, the paper discusses public protest in a number of issue areas. Five case studies are discussed: pro-democracy activism; labour strikes in the garment and textile industries; media reporting of corruption scandals; Catholic protests over property claims in Hanoi; and ethnic minorities and religious freedom in the Central Highlands Part three presents an analysis of how Vietnam’s party-state responded to the rapid rise in inflation. This section considers tensions between party and state over how to demarcate responsibility for dealing with this issue. The paper concludes with a reconsideration of frameworks for analysing the Vietnamese political system in light of developments in 2008.  

                                                         *

Professor of Politics, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, University College, The University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy. Professor Thayer is currently on sabbatical leav as Visiting Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, The Australian National University.

 

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Growing

Fear,

Growing

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