Thayer Us-china Deal On The South China Sea?

Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: US-China Deal on the South China Sea? Carlyle A. Thayer August 4, 2009

[client name deleted] Q1. There is one sentence in your recent interview with Nguoi Viet newspaper that read “Hai bên phải tiếp tục thảo luận và đi đến một thỏa ước về biển Ðông/two sides should continue to discuss and reach an agreement about the East Sea.” But as you know, China continue to advance its territorial claims to most of areas in the South China Sea while the US wants to maintain a free sea line in the South China Sea. So I don’t really understand what kinds of agreement that the US and China can reach? What demands will the US ask China to give in? Is its possible? And if it becomes true, what benefits it can bring to countries that have sea dispute with China like Vietnam? Could you explain me more on that? China continues to maintain an aggressive attitude, so how can the situation in South China Sea be resolved? ANSWER: There are two aspects to this. The first concerns China’s claim that it is illegal for foreign military vessels to conduct activities within its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), in this case off Hainan Island. The second aspect is the legal basis for China’s claims to the entire South China Sea by creating a bloc of territory by joining up all the islands, rocks and other features in the area. I was referring to the first aspect in my interview. The UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) does not prohibit peaceful military activity in a nation’s EEZ. The US views this maritime area as international waters. China claims it has the right to regulate military activity in the area on the basis of the UNCLOS and especially on the basis of domestic Chinese law. After the incident involving the USNS Impeccable, the United States called on China to discuss this matter. No formal agreement has been reached and none appears likely. But it is possible the two sides may be able to reach an informal understanding, even a confidential one. The United States will continue to send military vessels into China’s EEZ to carry out information gathering and it has threatened to send in armed escorts. China is left with several choices. It can decide to make a diplomatic protest. China can also decide to assert its sovereignty by challenging the US. China can challenge the US by a symbolic show of strength or China can resort to force. It is unlikely that China would risk an armed engagement in circumstances that clearly favor the United States. This matter is purely a bilateral one between the United States and China. With respect to the second aspect, the legal basis for China’s claim to the entire South China Sea, the United States says it rejects such claims as they have no basis in international law. The US will continue to assert its freedom of navigation across the South China Sea. China has always been careful not to interfere with safety of navigation. This matter is a multilateral one between China, other claimants to the South China Sea, and all other nations whose ships pass through the area. Sovereignty claims to the South China Sea are unlikely to be resolved. Q2. Last week, I met a Vietnamese diplomat; he told me Vietnam is now still cautious about its relations with the US because the US has said it would not intervene in a conflict between Vietnam and China. Vietnam is really worried the US can give a green light to China to take

2 over some Vietnam’s islands in Truong Sa [Spratly archipelago]in case the US and China reach an agreement in the South China Sea. What is your assessment? ANSWER: Vietnamese diplomats have told me the same thing. They fear Vietnam will fall victim to any Sino-American agreement on the South China Sea. Vietnam has nothing to fear if the US and China reach an informal understanding about the operations of US military vessels in China’s EEZ. The US will not abandon its position and will continue to send ships to monitor Chinese activity. The United States has said it will not take sides over conflicting sovereignty claims to the South China Sea. And it is unlikely the United States would come to Vietnam’s aid if it were attacked by China. But that does not mean the US would do nothing. The US would almost certainly exert political and diplomatic pressure on China (and Vietnam)in the event of a conflict. The US will cooperate with allies and partners to protect shipping in the South China Sea. If China acts aggressively towards the US it will pay a price. Vietnam is the author of its own dilemma. Vietnam has always restricted developing defence relations with the United States for two reasons. First, there are some in Hanoi who still view the US as a threat to Vietnam. Second, there are others who lean to China or who fear what China might do if Vietnam stepped up defence relations with the United States. Vietnam has thus kept itself in a weak position both diplomatically and militarily. The US is already on record as respecting Vietnam’s territorial integrity. This was included in the joint statement between President Bush and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung. The US is more concerned that American oil companies can prospect for and develop oil and gas reserves in the South China Sea without outside pressure such as China exerted in 2007. The US will defend its commercial interests. The US position on differences between Vietnam and China over sovereignty in the South China Sea should not be viewed as a zero sum game in which the US backs one side or the other. The US has more to gain by developing relations with both China and Vietnam. The US can exert diplomatic pressure to keep the relationship peaceful. Vietnam must first develop its own capacity to defend its interests and this means building up the Vietnamese navy. And Vietnam can step up defence cooperation with the US. Some military officials visited a US aircraft carrier in the South China Sea. Air Force officials recently held discussions. It is rumoured that Vietnam’s defence minister will visit the United States later this year. This would provide an opportunity for Vietnam to rethink its timid approach to defence cooperation with the United States.