Thayer Usns Impeccable Incident South China Sea

Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Chinese-staged Naval Incident off Hainan Island Carlyle A. Thayer March 10, 2009

[client name deleted]: QUESTION: Wonder whether you've heard anything about the Sunday 'harassment' by Chinese ships towards some US naval vessels. First time this type of aggression in such many years, don't you think? You reckon it is because Admiral Robert Willard is visiting Vietnam? ANSWER: The recent incident off Hainan is the most major incident between Chinese vessels and a US navy ship since 2001 when an American reconnaissance craft collided with a Chinese fighter and was forced to land on Hainan. I do not think it is linked with the visit of the commander of the US Navy Pacific, Admiral Willard, to Vietnam because so far there has been little publicity of his visit. The incident on 8th March was preceded by separate incidents on 4th March involving another US naval vessel. The ship had a spot light turned on it and a day later was buzzed twelve times by maritime aircraft. China has always claimed any military surveillance in its Exclusive Economic Zone is illegal. The current incident appears to have been a pre-planned ‘ambush’ against a Navy oceanographic ship which was unarmed and unescorted. The Chinese ships were all smaller in size and were not naval warships. The Chinese ships involved included two small Chinese trawlers, a Maritime Fisheries patrol vessel, an oceanographic patrol vessel and a PLAN intelligence collection ship. They chose to stage an incident against a vulnerable vessel to make a point of asserting Chinese claims that the US vessel was engaged in illegal activity. It is impossible to know at this stage whether the decision to stage such an incident was made by naval commanders on Hainan or further up the chain of command on the mainland. The incident was a form of light harassment I also dismiss at this stage claims that this incident was designed to test the Obama Administration (any more than I would buy the argument that President Obama sent the USNS Impeccable to test Chinese reactions). Secretary Clinton just visited Beijing and a meeting between President Obama and his Chinese counterpart is planned for next month. China has also offered an olive branch to Taiwan. It is likely the civilian leadership will be asking the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) to explain their actions.

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Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Hainan Island Naval Incident Carlyle A. Thayer March 15, 2009

[client name deleted]: Q1. Just wonder if I’m getting too conspiratorial, but do you think it was accidental that this US-China incident in the sea south of Hainan and not far from the Paracels occurred at the same time as Admiral Willard, the commander of the US Pacific fleet was visiting Vietnam? ANSWER: I do not think the incident off Hainan was linked with the visit of the commander of the US Navy Pacific, Admiral Willard, to Vietnam because there was little publicity accorded his visit, The incident on 8th March was preceded by separate incidents on 4th March involving another US naval vessel. The ship had a spot light turned on it and a day later was buzzed twelve times by maritime aircraft. China has always claimed any military surveillance in its Exclusive Economic Zone is illegal. The 8th March incident appears to have been a preplanned ‘ambush’ against a Navy oceanographic ship which was unarmed and unescorted. China was making a point that it considers intelligence collection of any time in its EEZ to be threatening activity under UNCLOS and therefore illegal. If China were trying to make a protest about Willard’s visit, their effort was counter productive now that the US will send armed escorts. Q2. I don’t know if the incident occurred in waters that are also claimed by Vietnam, but it must be pretty nearby. ANSWER: Without the exact coordinates of the US ship it is impossible to be precise about this. The incident occurred in China’s 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone. I doubt Vietnam could (or has) made a claim to these waters. If EEZs overlap after being extended from straight base lines, it would be customary to split the difference. If the incident occurred nearer to Hainan than Vietnam’s coast, as appears to have been the case, the incident would have taken place within China’s half of the still-to-be demarcated EEZ. The location of the incident also appears outside the areas delimited by the agreement on the Tonkin (Beibu) Gulf. Q3. And isn’t the USNS Impeccable a survey ship, maybe of a similar type of hydrographic survey vessel to that which the US has agreed to let VN use for weather and seabed surveys etc? ANSWER: The USNS Bruce C. Heezen (T-AGS 64) pictured below is the hydrographic ship that the US is using with the Vietnamese for weather and hydrographic work. It is one of 25 vessels in Military Sealift Command's Special Mission ship program office. The vessel is crewed by twenty-six merchant mariners under contract to MSC. The USNS Impeccable (TAGOS 23) has a different designation and is one of five Oceanographic Surveillance Ships attached to the MSC. Q4. I don’t know, I’m just a little surprised at the coincidences and the way Vietnam has not been mentioned in all this.

3 There were certainly other development affecting the South China Sea at this time. China has announced a tourist service from Hainan to an island called Phu Lam by the Vietnamese. Le Dzung has made an oral protest. Vietnam has complained about the new Philippines base line legislation. And China has protested PM Badawai’s visit to Malaysian features in the southern end of the South China Sea. These are about sovereignty claims on territorial features in the South China Sea. The 8th March incident was about US intrusion into China’s EEZ (or high seas from the US perspective. This incident appears to have been a preplanned ‘ambush’ against a Navy oceanographic ship which was unarmed and unescorted. The PLA-Navy chose to stage an incident against a vulnerable vessel to make a point of asserting Chinese claims that the US vessel was engaged in illegal activity. It is impossible to know at this stage whether the decision to stage such an incident was made by naval commanders on Hainan or further up the chain of command on the mainland. The incident was a form of light harassment. The Chinese ships involved were all smaller in size and were not naval warships, they included two small Chinese trawlers, a Maritime Fisheries patrol vessel, an oceanographic patrol vessel and a PLAN intelligence collection ship. At this stage I dismiss claims that the 8th March incident was designed to test the Obama Administration (any more than I would buy the argument that President Obama sent the USNS Impeccable to test Chinese reactions). Secretary Clinton just visited Beijing and a meeting between President Obama and his Chinese counterpart is planned for next month. China has also offered an olive branch to Taiwan. It is likely the civilian leadership will be asking the PLAN (People’s Liberation Army Navy) to explain their actions.

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Thayer Consultancy ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Hainan Island Naval Incident Carlyle A. Thayer March 15, 2009

[client name deleted] Could you share with us your own point of view about Sino-US naval dispute recently? Below are some of my questions. I hope to receive your answers soon. Q1- What is your own point of view about the recent China - US ship dispute on the East Sea (South China Sea)? In your opinion, is it an incident or a signal of a strategic shift in Sino - US relation? ANSWER: The recent incident off Hainan is the most major incident between Chinese vessels and a US navy ship since 2001 when an American EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft collided with a Chinese fighter and was forced to make an emergency landing on Hainan. The incident on 8th March was preceded by separate incidents on 4th March involving another US naval vessel. The ship had a spot light turned on it and a day later was buzzed twelve times by maritime aircraft. China has always claimed any military surveillance in its Exclusive Economic Zone is illegal. The 8th March incident appears to have been a pre-planned "ambush' against a Navy oceanographic ship which was unarmed and unescorted. The Chinese ships were all smaller in size and were not naval warships. The Chinese ships involved included two small Chinese trawlers, a Maritime Fisheries patrol vessel, an oceanographic patrol vessel and a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) intelligence collection ship. The PLAN chose to stage an incident OF light harassment against a vulnerable vessel to make a point of asserting Chinese claims that the US vessel was engaged in illegal activity. It is impossible to know at this stage whether the decision to stage such an incident was made by naval commanders on Hainan or further up the chain of command on the mainland. I dismiss at this stage claims that this incident was designed to test the Obama Administration or was in reaction to the visit to Vietnam by the Commander of the US Pacific Fleet Admiral Willard. Secretary of State Clinton just visited Beijing and a meeting between President Obama and his Chinese counterpart is planned for next month. China has also offered an olive branch to Taiwan. Q2- Along with these strains, there are also movements to show off military power. Are they possible to lead to a military race? Is it possible that the Cold War coming back? Is this current phase any similar or different from the Cold War? Could it be a beginning of a new world power balance in the region and the world? ANSWER: What we are witnessing is the rise of China as a major power. Ever since the 1995-96 incidents in the Taiwan Straits when China fired missiles to intimidate Taiwan and the United States deployed two Aircraft Carrier Task Force groups, China has been seeking to acquire the naval capacity to overcome the technological advantage held by the United States. It is China that is running its own military arms race by annually increasing its defence budget and by plans to acquire more nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines and even an aircraft carrier. The United States navy will continue to modernize and will hold its technological advantage for decades to come. The current situation is not directly comparable

6 to the Cold War because of the economic interdependence of the US and China. They are also cooperating in many areas including in the defence field. Q3- Head of US National Intelligence Dennis Blair hinted that China was becoming more and more aggressive than ever in the South East Asia and the East Sea area. According to you, what are the reasons for China to increase military activities in the area? And why is it in the middle of the global financial and economic crisis? ANSWER: China’s plans to expand its navy pre-date the current global crisis. China is increasing its defence expenditure rather than cutting it back. China has been assertive in its territorial claims for several years as Vietnam knows from experience. China is becoming more assertive because its economic and military power is growing and it is testing the power in those cases where China has territorial and sovereignty claims. China is constructing a major naval base on Hainan Island and its construction plans indicate it will station modern warships and nuclear submarines there in the future. China is therefore sensitive to US intelligence gathering in the waters off Hainan. Q4- What are the appropriate attitude and response of small countries in the East sea region in the situation? How can these strains affect ASEAN and its relations with these powers? Can it bring the region to an uncertainty? ANSWER: The response by countries in East Asia should be to clarify their position under international law and the UN Convention on Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The United States claims that it is acting properly under international law because its ships are operating on the high seas. China, on the other hand, claims that US ships are in Chinese waters illegally. This claim can only be made if the US ships are threatening. In fact the US ships are crewed by civilians, do not carry heavy weapons, and are collecting information that will assist the US Navy in keeping track of Chinese submarines. The small states need to use diplomacy to add pressure on China and the United States to reach an understanding of international law and not let this matter escalate. Q5- China and ASEAN nations have agreed on common rules of behaviors on the East sea. Sharing the sea, what role can ASEAN nations can play in easing the recent strains? As the President of ASEAN in 2009, what can Vietnam do in improving ASEAN's role in the regional issues? ANSWER: At present the incident off Hainan island is a bilateral one between China and the United States. This matter has been taken a step further by the US decision to send in armed escorts for its intelligence collection ships. ASEAN needs to develop a common perspective on what is permissible under international law, including UNCLOS, because this will serve to reduce tensions and create a precedent for dealing with intelligence collection activities by external powers in the Exclusive Economic Zones of individual ASEAN members. The matter could be put up for discussion at the ASEAN Regional Forum, at the ASEAN Plus Three Summit and the East Asian Summit. Q6- In your opinion, is it possible for East sea marine security to be a case in UNSC? Why? In that case, who will have the greater advantages, while both are key permanent members of UNSC? ANSWER: It is extremely unlikely that this issue will come before the UN Security Council because both China and the United States are permanent members and can exercise their veto. The US has historically always asserted its right to sail on the high seas. And further, the United States has not acceded to UNCLOS. Neither power will let its interests by negatively affected by the Security Council. At the moment there is not threat to international peace and security. Q7- China announced that their military development was for peace. They deployed their ships for anti-pirate fights in Somali sea last year. In you opinion, with China's navy potentials, how can they contribute to protect international marine security? ANSWER: China is developing a naval force that will be able to project power far from its shores. Naval forces can be used as an arm of diplomacy as well as assisting the international community in maintaining global order. In past years China has offered to help

7 patrol the Straits of Malacca. In future years, no doubt, China will develop the capacity to contribute to humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. All of these Chinese initiatives should be viewed positively. But the bottom line is that naval warships can be used equally for humanitarian missions as well as war fighting. China’s successful deployment for naval forces for peaceful purposes also develops the skills, experience and capability for deployment in times of conflict. Q8 - Is there any precedent for this kind of dispute in another water zone in the world? How did it happen? How did it end? ANSWER: During the Cold War the Soviet Union regularly deployed intelligence collection ships off Hawaii, where the U.S. Pacific Command is located. They sailed in international waters just as the US did off Hainan. US military authorities would alert all military and defence civilians to the presence of Soviet spy ships and order them to take special precautions against Soviet electronic intelligence gathering. The US would also “shadow” the Soviet vessels by flying reconnaissance craft over them and even dispatching war ships to maintain a presence. Both the United States and the Soviet Union developed “rules of the game” over a period of time. Each challenged the other but a major confrontation never developed. In other words, the United States would act the same way if China sent intelligence collectors into US EEZs to spy on America.