Thayer Security Issues In The Asia-pacific Region

Security Issues in the  Security Issues in the Asia Pacific Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Lemhannas Presentation to Lemhannas 2 November 2009

Outline of Presentation Outline of Presentation • Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Global Financial Crisis (GFC) • Asia‐Pacific Region – Rise of China Ri f Chi – Divided states: China‐Taiwan & Korea

• South East Asia – Internal conflicts – Territorial disputes – Myanmar

Pre‐Crisis Pre Crisis Economic Trends Economic Trends

Global Financial Crisis (GFC) Global Financial Crisis (GFC) • GFC GFC has accentuated Power Shift from North  has accentuated Power Shift from North America & Europe to the Asia‐Pacific • Global recovery from recession underway Global recovery from recession underway • New structure of international decision‐ making is emerging ki i i • U.S. moral authority and capitalist model of  development under challenge q g • China’s rise most consequential global trend

Changing National Power Relativities Changing National Power Relativities

Asia‐Pacific wide Security Issues

Importance of Maritime Domain Importance of Maritime Domain

Ri Rise of China (and India) f Chi ( d I di )

Estimates of Chinese Defence Budgets Estimates of Chinese Defence Budgets

US: China’ss Defence Spending US: China Defence Spending

China: U.S. Defence Spending

Comparison of Defense Expenditures 2005 (US$ bn): China’s 2006 Defense White Paper 14

Military Military  Modernisation: Anti access/ Anti‐access/  area‐denial or  power  power projection? Conventional  Anti‐Access  Capabilities – ranges of  ballistic missiles ballistic missiles

Yulin Naval  Yulin Naval Base, Hainan  Island

South China Sea South China Sea

South China Sea Territorial Disputes South China Sea Territorial Disputes

The Korean Peninsula The Korean Peninsula • Nuclear weapons program Nuclear weapons program – Processing and enrichment – Nuclear capability Nuclear capability

• • • •

Development of longer‐range ballistic missiles Past proliferator of WMD technology Unpredictable rogue behaviour Secession issue and regime stability

South East Asia Security Issues South East Asia Security Issues • Internal conflicts – Southern Thailand – Southern Philippines

• Territorial disputes T it i l di t – Cambodia‐Thailand

• Myanmar

Southern Thailand Southern Thailand • Long Long standing ethno standing ethno‐ nationalist conflict y • Malay Muslims • Sharp escalation in  violence since 2004 • Increased jihadist  rhetoric • Internal affair – non‐ interference

Southern  Philippines

Jemmah  Islamiah/al Qaeda  remnants Abu Sayyaf  Group, RSM  24

Rogue MILF  commands

Cambodia‐Thailand Temple  Dispute • Territorial Territorial dispute taken  dispute taken to ICJ in 1962 • Both are ASEAN  members • 2008 forces mobilised,  deadly force used • Irritant in bilateral  relations • Spill over to ASEAN?

Myanmar • Elections Elections 2010 2010 • Pressure on ethnic minority cease fire groups • Imprisoned pro‐democracy activists i d d i i – Aung San Suu Kyi

• Is national reconciliation possible? • Role of US, China and other external powers , p • ASEAN and ASEAN Charter

Transnational Security Issues Transnational Security Issues • • • • • • •

Internationally networked terrorism Internationally networked terrorism International criminal syndicates Piracy i Illicit drug production and smuggling People smuggling  Pandemics Natural Disasters

Conclusion • China China will increase all dimensions of national  will increase all dimensions of national power – Newly acquired and planned weapons capabilities  Newly acquired and planned weapons capabilities pose a security dilemma to regional states

• Relative primacy of the U.S. will decline Relative primacy of the U S will decline • WMD proliferation the most serious threat • North Korea leadership secession uncertainty

Conclusion • China China – Japan + China Japan + China‐India India rivalry rivalry • Southeast Asia beset by severe internal  conflicts • Territorial disputes threaten ASEAN cohesion • ASEAN Charter and Myanmar • What type of security architecture best  yp y addresses internal conflict and its spillover  effects?

Security Issues in  the Asia Pacific

Professor Carl Thayer Presentation to Lemhannas Presentation to Lemhannas 2 November 2009