Thayer Maritime Strategic Overview Of The Asia-pacific

Maritime Strategic Overview of the Asia-Pacific Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Australian Defence Force Academy Presentation to RSN International Maritime Security Conference Singapore, May 13-24, 2009

Changing Global Environment  IMF forecasts ‘unusually long and severe’ global recession  ‘The primary near-term concern of the United States is the global economic crisis and its geopolitical implications’. – Director of (US) National Intelligence

 ‘China’s rise is the most consequential long term trend in the world today…’. – Hugh White, former Australian Deputy Secretary for Defence (Strategy and Intelligence)

China’s GDP to Overtake US

Changing Power Relativities

Changing Global Environment  ‘Arc of instability’ across Africa and Middle East – prominence of non-state actors

 Demographic deficits in Japan and Russia  Persisting but diminished U.S. global dominance  Emerging multipolar system  Growing importance of maritime domain

The Maritime Domain

Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics  Impact of Global Economic Crisis – U.S. moral authority dented and attraction of capitalist development model undermined – Strengthening of China’s leadership role and enhancement of state-led development model

 National economic recovery and economic growth key priority for all  North Korea – going against the tide

Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics  U.S. National Security Policy (June 2009)  U.S. commitment to allies through forward presence and power projection (Guam)  U.S.-Japan alliance – cornerstone of U.S. strategy – Defense Policy Review Initiative (transformation and realignment) – First overseas visit by Secretary Clinton

Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics  U.S.-Korea alliance – U.S. Forces Korea transformation – Assumption of war-time operational control 2012

 U.S.-India relations – Indian Maritime Doctrine (2004) – Evolving strategic partnership – Defence sales, maritime security cooperation, counter-terrorism, HA/DR engagement

Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics  China: primacy of economic growth and peaceful international environment  Defence transformation and modernization – Taiwan Strait contingencies

 U.S.-China relations – Taiwan Relations Act – Strategic and Economic Dialogue – Resumption of military-to-military relations – Rival, peer competitor, strategic partner?

Comparing Defence Budgets

China’s Critical SLOCs

Anti-access/ area-denial or power projection?

Conventional Anti-Access Capabilities – Ballistic Missiles

Yulin Naval Base

Asia-Pacific Inter-State Dynamics  Japan – Deployments to Indian Ocean, Gulf of Aden

 South Korea – Redefinition of U.S-Korea alliance – From coastal patrol to blue water fleet – ROK to assume operational control 2012

 Rise of India’s power and influence – Cooperation with US but independent actor

 Concern over China’s presence in Indian Ocean  Emergence of East Asian security architecture

The Next Decade  Continuing impact Global Financial Crisis  Hardy perennials – Korean peninsula, Taiwan, South China Sea

 Security Dilemma – naval arms build up – Submarines and other platforms

 Upgrade of Regional Security Architecture – North East Asia and Indian Ocean deficits – APEC Plus and/or EAS Plus?

Maritime Strategic Overview of the Asia-Pacific Professor Carlyle A. Thayer School of Humanities & Social Sciences University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy Canberra, Australia