Thayer Australia's Strategic Context

Strategic Context: Australia and the Region

Professor Carl Thayer Senior Officer Operations Planning Course Defence Establishment Fairbairn February 26, 2007

Outline ♦Introduction ♦Strategic Environment ♦Australia and the Region ♦The Region and Australia ♦Current issues ♦Conclusion

Introduction ♦ Defending Australia – Capacity to preserve territory from attack ♦ Defending Australia’s interests – Strategic interests – Security interests ♦ Prioritizing contending interests ♦ Resource constraints

Strategic Environment

Number of Conflicts, 1946-2003

Strategic Environment Four major forces 1. Globalisation will intensify 2. Demographic change 3. International terrorism will persist 4. Continued U.S. dominance

Globalisation ♦ New levels of world economic growth ♦ Deepening interdependence ♦ Emergence of middle class ♦ World labour market ♦ East Asia centre of world growth ♦ International institutions and states will

come under challenge

Demographic Change ♦ Fall in population growth rates in

developed countries and an aging of their populations ♦ Constraints on economic growth. – Japan and Russia will be severely affected in this regard.

♦ Emergence of youth bulges in many

parts of the developing world

International Terrorism ♦ Transmutation of al Qaeda ♦ Global jihadism ♦ Politics of identity – Challenge to state legitimacy ♦ Home grown terrorism ♦ Continuing conflict in Iraq and

Afghanistan

Terrorist Attacks, 1982-2003

Lethality

U.S. Dominance ♦ Until mid-century the United States will

remain the most powerful state in all dimensions of national power ♦ Relative power of the U.S.will decline – Rise of China and India – Proliferation of nuclear weapons

♦ U.S. management of global forces will

largely determine world and regional order

Threats to Vital Australian Interests

East Asia ♦ Shift in economic power to East Asia ♦ Rise of China and India ♦ Japan: more active role in the management

of global security ♦ Potential great power rivalry – China-US – China-Japan

♦ Diffusion of military technology ♦ East Asian regionalism

South Pacific ♦ Arc of instability ♦ Transnational security issues ♦ Weak and failing states – Solomon Islands – East Timor ♦ China-Taiwan rivalry

Australia and the Region

U.S. Alliance ♦ ‘The alliance with the United States

confers major strategic, political and economic benefits on Australia. The defence relationship is a substantial force multiplier for Australia’s defence and intelligence capabilities including in relation to terrorism.’ – Australia’s National Security: A Defence Update 2005,13.

U.S. Alliance System ♦ Foundation of regional stability and

security ♦ Interoperability ♦ Further institutionalisation – Intelligence/operations – Technology transfer

♦ Ballistic missile defence ♦ Increased burden sharing by allies

Japan ♦ Largest trading partner – Free Trade Agreement

♦ Tsunami relief operations ♦ Iraq – security protection ♦ Trilateral Security Dialogue ♦ Bilateral defence co-operation

China ♦ Not an ‘either or’ choice ♦ Australia promotes good management

of China-US bilateral relations ♦ Major emerging market for Australia ♦ China’s growing energy needs ♦ Australia’s comparative advantage

Indonesia ♦ Cooperation in border security – Transnational crime: illegal drugs, people smuggling ♦ Cooperation in counter-terrorism ♦ Support for economic growth and

democratic consolidation ♦ New Framework for Security Cooperation – Disavow support for separatism

The Philippines ♦ Expansion of security relations ♦ Australian assistance – Training – Combined Exercises – Maritime surveillance – Counter-terrorism capability

Regionalism ♦ Australia promoted APEC (1989) – Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum ♦ Australia a founding member of East Asian

Summit (2005) – Mahathir’s objections – Treaty of Amity and Cooperation - Cold War relic?

The Region and Australia

U.S. Alliance ♦ “we bring an additional strength to our regional

relations, which is our strong alliance with the United States.” – Alexander Downer, May 12, 2006

♦ Australia as a dependent ally – Ballistic missile defence ♦ Howard Doctrine – Pre-emption ♦ Deputy Sheriff

China ♦ China’s growing strategic influence ♦ China as a centre of technological

development ♦ Stable markets, secure SLOCs ♦ China as major emerging market for Australia ♦ China’s energy needs

China ♦ Concern about encirclement by U.S.-

led alliance system ♦ Growing economic interdependence ♦ Taiwan Straits contingencies ♦ Increased defence cooperation

China’s National Security Objectives ♦ Maintain domestic security; prevent

separatism in Tibet and Xinjiang; and then recover control over Taiwan; ♦ Promote a stable regional security

environment, especially along China’s periphery, as the prerequisite for economic growth;

China’s National Security Objectives ♦ Maintain high levels of economic

growth to provide employment, raise income levels and prevent domestic disorder; ♦ Restore and expand China’s traditional political and diplomatic influence; and

China’s National Security Objectives ♦ Promote a multi-polar international

order to prevent encirclement or containment by the United States.

Indonesia

Lowy Institute Poll

Indonesia

Lowy Institute Poll 2005

Indonesia

Lowy Institute Poll

Current Issues

Global ♦ ANZUS as a global alliance ♦ Australian partnership with NATO ♦ Iraq - the end game? ♦ WMD Proliferation – Iran ♦ Failed and failing states – Africa and Middle East

Regional ♦ Past alignment of Australian’s

economic & security interests will diverge – U.S. cornerstone of security – China second largest trading partner

♦ Counter-terrorism

Regional ♦ WMD counter-proliferation – Proliferation Security Initiative ♦ Cooperation to meet transnational

threats ♦ Maritime security cooperation ♦ Humanitarian assistance and disaster relief

North East Asia ♦ Increased Japanese defence capacity

and increased independence from the US? ♦ Korean peninsula ♦ Taiwan ♦ Territorial disputes – China-Japan and Japan-South Korea

South East Asia ♦ Separatism in Indonesia ♦ Cooperation with the Armed Forces of

the Philippines ♦ Five Power Defence Arrangements – Area defence – Asymmetric threats – Maritme surveillance

Indonesia ♦ Working out bilateral cooperation

under the Framework for Security Cooperation: – Defence, law enforcement, counterterrorism, intelligence sharing, maritime and aviation security, WMD proliferation, emergency relief and people-to-people links

South Pacific ♦ Closer Defence Relationship with

New Zealand ♦ Pacific Island Forum - leadership role ♦ Nation-building - no exit strategy – Solomon Islands – Vanuatu, PNG

♦ Civil-Military relations – PNG, Fiji

South Asia ♦ India’s increased economic and

political clout ♦ India-United States new framework for defence relations ♦ Increased opportunities for security cooperation with India ♦ Civilian nuclear industry – Australian exports of uranium

Conclusion

Strategic Uncertainty ♦ Strategic shocks and discontinuities are

difficult to anticipate – Pandemic, state failure, catastrophic terrorist attack, military confrontation between major powers

♦ ADF will continue to be involved in broad

spectrum from high-end war fighting to stabilisation operations and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief missions

The Long War ♦ Impact of Democrat control of Congress on

lame duck US president and US strategy over next two years ♦ Will the Global War on Terrorism remain the central organising principal of US strategic policy? ♦ Possibility of ‘Iraq syndrome’ ♦ How should Australia re-adjust its policies?