Recent Developments in the South China Sea Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presenta;on to Interna;onal Workshop on ‘The South China Sea: Coopera;on for Regional Security and Development’ Diploma;c Academy of Vietnam and Vietnam Lawyers’ Associa;on, Hanoi, November 27‐28, 2009
Outline of Presenta;on Sanya Naval Base Exclusive Mari;me Zone Fishing Moratorium Territorial Claims U.S. and China’s 4 Obstacles
Es;mates of Chinese Defence Budgets
RED no transparency; ORANGE cursory treatment; YELLOW medium degree of transparency; GREEN high degree of transparency
Military Modernisa.on: An.‐access/ area‐denial or power projec.on? Conven.onal An.‐Access Capabili.es – ranges of ballis.c missiles
Yulin Naval Base, Hainan Island
Mischief Reef
Harassment of U.S. Naval Ships
Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban May 16-August 1, 2009
China’s Response to Claims for Extended Continental Shelf
U.S. Policy 1 U.S. forces will remain present and postured as the preeminent military force in the region 2 Deliberate and calibrated asser;ons of U.S. freedom of naviga;on rights 3 Building stronger security rela;onships with partners in the region… opera;onally 4 Strengthening the military‐diploma;c mechanisms U.S. has with China
China’s Four Obstacles 1 U.S.‐Taiwan military rela;onship 2 U.S.‐military aircra] and ships’ intrusions into China’s mari;me exclusive economic zone 3 U.S. legisla;on which restricts the development of the China‐U.S. military rela;onship 4 United States lacking strategic trust in China
Sugges;ons for Coopera;on 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.
U.S.‐China high‐level military mee;ngs ADMM Plus – military transparency SEANFWZ Treaty Coopera;on over fishers management From DOC to COC South China Sea SOM discussions on exclusive mari;me zones Enhance regional security architecture
Recent Developments in the South China Sea Professor Carlyle A. Thayer Presenta;on to Interna;onal Workshop on ‘The South China Sea: Coopera;on for Regional Security and Development’ Diploma;c Academy of Vietnam and Vietnam Lawyers’ Associa;on, Hanoi, November 27‐28, 2009