Thayer Catholic Protests In Central Vietnam

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Background Briefing: Catholic Protests in Central Vietnam Carlyle A. Thayer August 6, 2009

[client name deleted] Q1. There seem to have been some large Catholic protests in Quang Binh, Nghe An and Ha Tinh on 26 July. The Catholic papers talk of up to half a million protesting but the news wires are only saying 500 people in Dong Hoi. Do you have any idea of the numbers involved? ANSWER: Vietnamese Catholic news services reported that 500,000 protesters came out in public on two successive Sundays, 26th July and 2nd August. There is no independent collaboration of these numbers and they are likely to be widely exaggerated. Take the second report, for 2nd August; it states that there are 500,000 Catholics in Vinh diocese organized into 178 parishes. This report mentions that mass protests were held throughout the diocese without giving any figure except for an estimated 10,000 who gathered in front of the Bishop’s Office of Vinh Diocese at Xa Doai, Nghe An. Estimating crowd size in gatherings of this nature is notoriously unreliable. I have spoken to one analyst who calculates that the maximum number of Catholics Quang Binh, Nghe An and Ha Tinh provinces is half that number, 250,000. This is a ball park figure gathered from incomplete data on the number of Catholics in the nineteen parishes mentioned in press reporting. The successive Sunday demonstrations took place in multiple localities. There were only two specific reports by Catholic new agencies giving a figure of 500,000. One report was ambiguous and the 500,000 could indicate the total number of Catholic in the tri-province area. Other than these two reports, and discounting duplicate reporting in allied media, all the other reports have been vague citing figures in the thousands. It is clear that large numbers of Catholics were involved in public demonstrations that rival the peasant disturbances in Thai Binh province in 1997 when perhaps tens of thousands engaged in public protest. I have not seen the figure of 500 for Dong Hoi. There were an estimated 150-200 Catholics at Tam Toa at the initial incident that sparked these protests. It was later estimated that there are 3,000 Catholics in the Dong Hoi area. Q2. Apparently a couple of priests were seriously injured and this sparked vigils in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh city - again - any idea of the size of these? ANSWER: Media reports of public vigils in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City in solidarity with priests and co-religionists who were beaten by police have been vague on numbers. One report estimated that two thousand gathered in Hanoi in the evening of 27th July while ‘thousands’ gathered in Ho Chi Minh City. Q3. And finally - any idea as to whether the protests/vigils will continue of just peter out as the did in Thai Hai last year? ANSWER: In January 30, 2008 the Vatican Secretary of State Cardinal Bertone wrote to Archbishop Joseph Ngo Quang Kiet in Hanoi, “I kindly request you to intervene, so that acts which could disrupt public order be avoided, and that the situation comes back to normalcy.”

2 The Vatican Secretary urged dialogues with the authorities “in a more serene climate” and pledged that the Holy See “will not fail to explain to the government of your country the legitimate aspiration of Vietnamese Catholics.” The Hanoi demonstrations continued until August when they dropped off. I expect the same in Central Vietnam for the same and allied reasons. First, the President of Vietnam is scheduled to go to the Vatican in December and meet Pope Benedict. Secondly, the Vietnamese government has announced it has invited the Pope to make a pastoral visit to Vietnam in return. Continued protests could put the later in jeopardy. Meanwhile, on 25th July, the Vatican announced the appointment of four new bishops and one new auxiliary bishop for Vietnam.