Thayer Ballistic Missiles: Us Russia China Triangle

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Background Briefing: The U.S.-Russia-China Triangle Carlyle A. Thayer September 27, 2009

[client name withheld] Question: The BBC World Service reported that warmer relations between the US and Russia will develop after President Obama cancelled the BMD [ballistic missile defence] system in Poland and Czech and this will raise concerns in Beijing. Is it possible that Russian could become a member of NATO? If that eventuates, China will have to readjust its strategic thinking. Is this a part of Obama’s grand strategy. What is your assessment? Answer: President Obama’s decision to cancel the placement of a ballistic missile defence system in Poland and Czech has resulted in reciprocation by Russia not to retaliate. This has led to a palpable warming of relations seen most recently at the United Nations when U.S. National Security Adviser General James Jones tapped his Russian counterpart on the shoulder and invited him to private discussions on new intelligence about Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Russia and the United States are now acting more in tandem. But the two national security advisers later also invited their Chinese counterpart to join them. If we view US-Russia-China relations as a triangle, recent developments have meant that China has lost its role as pivot. The Obama Administration has taken the lead. While China may harbor anxieties about closer RussianAmerican relations, China will be pleased to be included in high-level strategic decision-making. The three great powers are also cooperating over the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula by trying to revive the Six Party Talks. There is no possibility of the Russian Federation joining NATO. Moscow does not want to and until it is a democracy it will not be qualified. President Obama is not promoting a strategy designed to isolate or contain China. He is trying to work with both. The recent elevation of the G20’s role in global economic affairs is a sign that Obama is pursuing multilateralism.