Thayer Asia-pacific Security Order
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Regional Security A hit t Architecture
Professor Carl Thayer Australian Command and Staff College Security Studies (Regional) September 24, 2009
Outline of Presentation • Security Architecture • Security S it Order Od • Securityy Architecture in the AsiaPacific Region • Prime Minister Rudd Rudd’ss proposal for an Asia-Pacific community
1. Types of Security Architectures • • • •
Collective Security Collective Defence Security Regime Securityy Communityy
Collective Security • States join together to confront any an would-be aggressor – Permanent potential alliance against an unknown enemy on behalf of an unknown victim – United Nations through Security Council
• Alternative to gglobal system y of competing alliances (balance of power) – League of Nations
Collective Security Three conditions: Th diti 1. The collective security coalition must be able to apply preponderant force against the most powerful adversary 2 All major powers must share a common view 2. of what constitutes a stable and acceptable international order 3. Major powers must share a minimum of ppolitical solidarityy and moral community y
UN Charter Chapter VII Article 51 • Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.
UN Charter Chapter VIII Article 52 • Nothing in the present Charter precludes the existence of regional arrangements or agencies for dealing with such matters relating to the maintenance i t off international i t ti l peace andd security it as are appropriate for regional action provided that such arrangements or agencies and their activities are consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations.
Collective Security • United Nations –
Korean War
• Collective ll i security i or collective ll i defence? d f – North Atlantic Treaty y Organisation g NATO – South East Asia Treaty Organisation SEATO • Laotian crisis 1961-62 • Vietnam War
Collective Defence f • Alliances are one form of collective defence – coalitions, mutual assistance agreements
• Alliances are formal agreements g that pledge p g states to cooperate in using their military resources against a specific state or states. • Alliances usually obligate one or more of the signatories to use force or to consider the use of force - unilaterally or in consultation - in specified circumstances.
Functions off Alliances • Increase the power of the states which subscribe to them, and allow for an international division of labour; • Assist the signatories in maintaining their y internal security; • Serve to restrain the behaviour of other states; • Help maintain international order in an anarchical international system (e.g. by drawing g g nations)) a line, or aligning
US ‘Hub and Spokes’ p Model Japan Japan South Korea
ANZUS
USA Taiwan
Thailand
Philippines pp
Security Regime • Group of states cooperate to manage their disputes p and avoid war byy seeking g to mute the effects of security dilemma • self-restraint self restraint and non non-provocation provocation •
assumption other nations seek peace
• Security dilemma - defensive action by one state is perceived as a threat by another
Security Community A group of states – attained a ‘sense of community’ or collective identityy – adopted formal or informal institutions and p practices – become integrated – hold o d ‘dependable depe dab e e expectations pectat o s o of peace peaceful u change’ – rule out the use of force to solve disputes p
Two Types of Security Community • Amalgamated Security Community – Formal merger g of two or more independent p states into a single larger unit with common government after amalgamation – the h United i d States S
• Pluralistic Security Community – Member states retain legal independence of their separate governments – the th United U it d States St t andd Canada C d
Prerequisites 1. Total absence of armed conflict or prospects for conflict among members 2 Absence 2. Ab off competitive i i military ili build-up b ild or arms race 3 Existence 3. E it off formal f l or informal i f l institutions i tit ti andd practices to manage and resolve conflicts 4 High degree of political and economic 4. integration as a precondition of peaceful relations
Three Stages of Development • Nascent Phase – States explore coordination mechanisms, accept interdependence of their security
• Ascendant Phase – Dense networks networks, military coordination, coordination new institutions, collective identify, dependable expectations of peaceful change
• Mature Phase – Loosely and tightly coupled security communities
2 T 2. Types off SSecurity it Order Od • Balance l off Power • Hegemonic • Multilateral community-based security – Concert of great powers – Common security institution – Collective security
Power Balance in Asia-Pacific is Mixed • Part balance of power – China advocates multipolarity
• Part hegemonic – U.S. alliance system y plus p strategic g ppartners – US pursues liberal grand strategy
• Part community community-based based multilateralism – ASEAN and ASEAN Regional Forum
3 SSecurity A 3. Architecture h • Association of South East Asian Nations ( ) ASEAN (1967) • Five Power Defence Arrangements FPDA ( (1971) ) • Pacific Island Forum PIF (1971) – formerly South Pacific Forum (SPF)
• Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC (1989)
S Security A Architecture h • Council for Security Cooperation in the ( ) Asia-Pacific CSCAP (1993) – One and a half track
• ASEAN Regional Forum ARF (1994) • Asia-Europe Meeting ASEM (1996) • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO (1996) – Formerly Shanghai 5 (1996)
S Security A Architecture h • Shangri-La Dialogue (7) – International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) a UK registered charity
• Six Party y Talks ((6)) – Korea peninsula focus
• East Asia Summit EAS (4) – ASEAN Treat of Amity and Cooperation
APEC • Minus CLM • + ADMM ARF Plus
APT EAS
Chi Japan, • China South Korea
• Russia and USA?
F Power Five P Defence D f Arrangements A • United Kingdom withdrawal east of Suez – defence of Malaysia and Singapore indivisible
• FPDA formed f d 1971 – consultative body Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom – Confidence building measure between Malaysia and Singapore – annual joint training exercises
• Integrated Air Defence System (IADS)
FPDA • Integrated g Area Defence System y (2000) ( ) • Expanding role in addressing asymmetric ( ) threats (2003) • Facilitates cooperation in other areas – Malaysia in East Timor – Singapore and NZ in Afghanistan
• Only effective multilateral military structure with an operational dimension in Southeast Asia.
ASEAN Regional R l Forum F Fi First ARF Chairman's Ch i ' Statement S (1994): (1994) to foster constructive dialogue and consultation l i on political li i l andd security i issues i of common interest and concern; and to make k significant i ifi contributions ib i to efforts ff towards confidence-building and preventive diplomacy in the Asia Asia-Pacific Pacific region.
ARF 2 Chairman ARF-2: Ch i ’s Statement St t t • The approach shall be evolutionary, g , takingg pplace in three broad stages, namely – the promotion of confidence building, – development of preventive diplomacy and – elaboration of approaches to conflicts.
Membership Expansion (27) Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Australia C d Canada
China European Union Japan South Korea New Zealand PNG Russia United States L Laos
Myanmar y Cambodia Mongolia North Korea India Pakistan Timor Leste Timor-Leste Bangladesh S iL Sri Lanka k
ARF Work Program ISM on SAR 1995-97 ISM on PKO 1995-97 ISM Disaster Relief 1995-99 + 2005 ISG on CBMs 1995ISM Transnational Crime Terrorism
Sh Shangri-La L D Dialogue l • Initiated by International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) in 2002 – Participation by defence ministers from 15 countries plus 6 deputy ministers or senior officials
• IISS: ‘the best available vehicle in the Asia-Pacific region for developing and chanelling astute and effective public policy on defence and security’.
Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar New Zealand, Myanmar, Zealand Pakistan, Pakistan Philippines, Philippines Republic of Korea, Korea Russia, Russia Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor Leste, UK, US, Vietnam
4 Kevin Rudd 4. Rudd’ss Asia Pacific Community • “none of our existingg regional g mechanisms as currently configured” were capable of engaging “in in the full spectrum of dialogue, cooperation and action ti on economic i andd political liti l matters and future challenges to security.” – Kevin Rudd, Address to the Asia Society Sydney June 4, 2008
Kevin Rudd Rudd’ss Asia Pacific Community • Prime Minister Rudd proposed: “a regional institution which spans the entire Asia-Pacific region – including the h United U i d States, S JJapan, Chi China, IIndia di Indonesia and the other states of the region.”
A i Pacific Asia P ifi community
APEC
ARF
APEC
EAS
APT at core+ India
ARF at working l l level
Economies Hong Kong & Taiwan
+ Russia
EU + South America
+ USA?
Umbrella Group G6/8/10?
APEC economic issues
EAS security issues
USA
Japan
China
Core Group India
Indonesia
Australia
USA China
Japan p
Group of 8
India
or Group of 10 South Korea
Indonesia
Australia
R i Russia
Conclusion •U U.S.-led S led security system addresses ‘hard security’ threats and provides for region wide stability region-wide – Korean peninsula – Taiwan – Internationally networked terrorism
• Chi China’s ’ engagementt places l it att the th centre of all regional issues
Conclusion • Gro Growing ing interdependence across the Asia-Pacific Region • Spread of cooperative security norms • Development of regional multilateral regimes and institutions • Non-traditional (‘soft’) security issues increasingly g y on agenda g
Conclusion • No single security architecture covers the Asia-Pacific Region • Multiple M lti l architectures hit t deal d l with ith hard h d and soft security challenges • Global and regional dynamics shape the regional security architecture • Regional dynamics are complex, fluid and uncertain
Regional Security A hit t Architecture
Professor Carl Thayer Australian Command and Staff College Security Studies (Regional) September 24, 2009
Professor Carl Thayer Australian Command and Staff College Security Studies (Regional) September 24, 2009
Outline of Presentation • Security Architecture • Security S it Order Od • Securityy Architecture in the AsiaPacific Region • Prime Minister Rudd Rudd’ss proposal for an Asia-Pacific community
1. Types of Security Architectures • • • •
Collective Security Collective Defence Security Regime Securityy Communityy
Collective Security • States join together to confront any an would-be aggressor – Permanent potential alliance against an unknown enemy on behalf of an unknown victim – United Nations through Security Council
• Alternative to gglobal system y of competing alliances (balance of power) – League of Nations
Collective Security Three conditions: Th diti 1. The collective security coalition must be able to apply preponderant force against the most powerful adversary 2 All major powers must share a common view 2. of what constitutes a stable and acceptable international order 3. Major powers must share a minimum of ppolitical solidarityy and moral community y
UN Charter Chapter VII Article 51 • Nothing in the present Charter shall impair the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations, until the Security Council has taken measures necessary to maintain international peace and security.
UN Charter Chapter VIII Article 52 • Nothing in the present Charter precludes the existence of regional arrangements or agencies for dealing with such matters relating to the maintenance i t off international i t ti l peace andd security it as are appropriate for regional action provided that such arrangements or agencies and their activities are consistent with the Purposes and Principles of the United Nations.
Collective Security • United Nations –
Korean War
• Collective ll i security i or collective ll i defence? d f – North Atlantic Treaty y Organisation g NATO – South East Asia Treaty Organisation SEATO • Laotian crisis 1961-62 • Vietnam War
Collective Defence f • Alliances are one form of collective defence – coalitions, mutual assistance agreements
• Alliances are formal agreements g that pledge p g states to cooperate in using their military resources against a specific state or states. • Alliances usually obligate one or more of the signatories to use force or to consider the use of force - unilaterally or in consultation - in specified circumstances.
Functions off Alliances • Increase the power of the states which subscribe to them, and allow for an international division of labour; • Assist the signatories in maintaining their y internal security; • Serve to restrain the behaviour of other states; • Help maintain international order in an anarchical international system (e.g. by drawing g g nations)) a line, or aligning
US ‘Hub and Spokes’ p Model Japan Japan South Korea
ANZUS
USA Taiwan
Thailand
Philippines pp
Security Regime • Group of states cooperate to manage their disputes p and avoid war byy seeking g to mute the effects of security dilemma • self-restraint self restraint and non non-provocation provocation •
assumption other nations seek peace
• Security dilemma - defensive action by one state is perceived as a threat by another
Security Community A group of states – attained a ‘sense of community’ or collective identityy – adopted formal or informal institutions and p practices – become integrated – hold o d ‘dependable depe dab e e expectations pectat o s o of peace peaceful u change’ – rule out the use of force to solve disputes p
Two Types of Security Community • Amalgamated Security Community – Formal merger g of two or more independent p states into a single larger unit with common government after amalgamation – the h United i d States S
• Pluralistic Security Community – Member states retain legal independence of their separate governments – the th United U it d States St t andd Canada C d
Prerequisites 1. Total absence of armed conflict or prospects for conflict among members 2 Absence 2. Ab off competitive i i military ili build-up b ild or arms race 3 Existence 3. E it off formal f l or informal i f l institutions i tit ti andd practices to manage and resolve conflicts 4 High degree of political and economic 4. integration as a precondition of peaceful relations
Three Stages of Development • Nascent Phase – States explore coordination mechanisms, accept interdependence of their security
• Ascendant Phase – Dense networks networks, military coordination, coordination new institutions, collective identify, dependable expectations of peaceful change
• Mature Phase – Loosely and tightly coupled security communities
2 T 2. Types off SSecurity it Order Od • Balance l off Power • Hegemonic • Multilateral community-based security – Concert of great powers – Common security institution – Collective security
Power Balance in Asia-Pacific is Mixed • Part balance of power – China advocates multipolarity
• Part hegemonic – U.S. alliance system y plus p strategic g ppartners – US pursues liberal grand strategy
• Part community community-based based multilateralism – ASEAN and ASEAN Regional Forum
3 SSecurity A 3. Architecture h • Association of South East Asian Nations ( ) ASEAN (1967) • Five Power Defence Arrangements FPDA ( (1971) ) • Pacific Island Forum PIF (1971) – formerly South Pacific Forum (SPF)
• Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC (1989)
S Security A Architecture h • Council for Security Cooperation in the ( ) Asia-Pacific CSCAP (1993) – One and a half track
• ASEAN Regional Forum ARF (1994) • Asia-Europe Meeting ASEM (1996) • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation SCO (1996) – Formerly Shanghai 5 (1996)
S Security A Architecture h • Shangri-La Dialogue (7) – International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) a UK registered charity
• Six Party y Talks ((6)) – Korea peninsula focus
• East Asia Summit EAS (4) – ASEAN Treat of Amity and Cooperation
APEC • Minus CLM • + ADMM ARF Plus
APT EAS
Chi Japan, • China South Korea
• Russia and USA?
F Power Five P Defence D f Arrangements A • United Kingdom withdrawal east of Suez – defence of Malaysia and Singapore indivisible
• FPDA formed f d 1971 – consultative body Malaysia, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand and United Kingdom – Confidence building measure between Malaysia and Singapore – annual joint training exercises
• Integrated Air Defence System (IADS)
FPDA • Integrated g Area Defence System y (2000) ( ) • Expanding role in addressing asymmetric ( ) threats (2003) • Facilitates cooperation in other areas – Malaysia in East Timor – Singapore and NZ in Afghanistan
• Only effective multilateral military structure with an operational dimension in Southeast Asia.
ASEAN Regional R l Forum F Fi First ARF Chairman's Ch i ' Statement S (1994): (1994) to foster constructive dialogue and consultation l i on political li i l andd security i issues i of common interest and concern; and to make k significant i ifi contributions ib i to efforts ff towards confidence-building and preventive diplomacy in the Asia Asia-Pacific Pacific region.
ARF 2 Chairman ARF-2: Ch i ’s Statement St t t • The approach shall be evolutionary, g , takingg pplace in three broad stages, namely – the promotion of confidence building, – development of preventive diplomacy and – elaboration of approaches to conflicts.
Membership Expansion (27) Brunei Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Australia C d Canada
China European Union Japan South Korea New Zealand PNG Russia United States L Laos
Myanmar y Cambodia Mongolia North Korea India Pakistan Timor Leste Timor-Leste Bangladesh S iL Sri Lanka k
ARF Work Program ISM on SAR 1995-97 ISM on PKO 1995-97 ISM Disaster Relief 1995-99 + 2005 ISG on CBMs 1995ISM Transnational Crime Terrorism
Sh Shangri-La L D Dialogue l • Initiated by International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) in 2002 – Participation by defence ministers from 15 countries plus 6 deputy ministers or senior officials
• IISS: ‘the best available vehicle in the Asia-Pacific region for developing and chanelling astute and effective public policy on defence and security’.
Australia, Bangladesh, Brunei, Cambodia, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Myanmar New Zealand, Myanmar, Zealand Pakistan, Pakistan Philippines, Philippines Republic of Korea, Korea Russia, Russia Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Timor Leste, UK, US, Vietnam
4 Kevin Rudd 4. Rudd’ss Asia Pacific Community • “none of our existingg regional g mechanisms as currently configured” were capable of engaging “in in the full spectrum of dialogue, cooperation and action ti on economic i andd political liti l matters and future challenges to security.” – Kevin Rudd, Address to the Asia Society Sydney June 4, 2008
Kevin Rudd Rudd’ss Asia Pacific Community • Prime Minister Rudd proposed: “a regional institution which spans the entire Asia-Pacific region – including the h United U i d States, S JJapan, Chi China, IIndia di Indonesia and the other states of the region.”
A i Pacific Asia P ifi community
APEC
ARF
APEC
EAS
APT at core+ India
ARF at working l l level
Economies Hong Kong & Taiwan
+ Russia
EU + South America
+ USA?
Umbrella Group G6/8/10?
APEC economic issues
EAS security issues
USA
Japan
China
Core Group India
Indonesia
Australia
USA China
Japan p
Group of 8
India
or Group of 10 South Korea
Indonesia
Australia
R i Russia
Conclusion •U U.S.-led S led security system addresses ‘hard security’ threats and provides for region wide stability region-wide – Korean peninsula – Taiwan – Internationally networked terrorism
• Chi China’s ’ engagementt places l it att the th centre of all regional issues
Conclusion • Gro Growing ing interdependence across the Asia-Pacific Region • Spread of cooperative security norms • Development of regional multilateral regimes and institutions • Non-traditional (‘soft’) security issues increasingly g y on agenda g
Conclusion • No single security architecture covers the Asia-Pacific Region • Multiple M lti l architectures hit t deal d l with ith hard h d and soft security challenges • Global and regional dynamics shape the regional security architecture • Regional dynamics are complex, fluid and uncertain
Regional Security A hit t Architecture
Professor Carl Thayer Australian Command and Staff College Security Studies (Regional) September 24, 2009
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