Seb Country Analysis 2009 Uaepdf

U.A.E. SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

March 23, 2009

Analyst: Rolf Danielsen. Tel : +46 8 763 83 92. E‐mail : [email protected]  

qÜÉ=Äççã=óÉ~êë=Ü~îÉ=é~ëëÉÇ=~åÇ=~=éêçÅÉëë=çÑ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=~åÇ=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ÅçåëçäáÇ~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÖìå= ìåÇÉê=íÜÉ=ÖìáÇ~åÅÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçìåíêóÛë=ãçåÉí~êó=~ìíÜçêáíáÉëK=

Country Risk Analysis

Percent

= båÇ=çÑ=íÜÉ=çáäJ=~åÇ=éêçéÉêíó=ÄççãK==páåÅÉ=ãáÇJóÉ~ê=OMMU=íìêåJ~Äçìí=áå=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=çáä= ã~êâÉíI=íÜÉ=ëÉåíáãÉåí=íç=íÜÉ=råáíÉÇ=^ê~Ä=bãáê~íÉë=~ãçåÖ=äçÅ~ä=~åÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=áåîÉëíçêë= Ü~ë=ïÉ~âÉåÉÇ=ÅçåëáÇÉê~ÄäóK== Stock markets ^ÑíÉê=ÜçäÇáåÖ=ìé=Ñçê=èìáíÉ=~= % change since end 2005 ïÜáäÉ=áåíç=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=ÅêáëáëI= 150 Oil íÜÉ=ëíçÅâ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=éäìåÖÉÇ= 125 price SMB=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ= 100 ä~ëí=óÉ~êK==cçääçïáåÖ=ëÉîÉê~ä= 75 óÉ~êë=çÑ=~=éêçéÉêíó=ã~êâÉí= EM ÄççãI=ÜçìëáåÖ=éêáÅÉë= 50 éÉ~âÉÇ=ä~ëí=Ñ~ää=~åÇ=Ü~ë= 25 ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉå=ÇêçééÉÇ=Äó=NRJ 0 ORB=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=ëÉîÉê~ä= ã~êâÉí=êÉéçêíëK==líÜÉê=é~êíë= UAE -25 çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~îÉ=~äëç= -50 ëìÑÑÉêÉÇK=qÜÉ=ÜçíÉä= -75 çÅÅìé~åÅó=ê~íÉ=áå=aìÄ~á=ï~ë= jan maj sep jan maj sep jan maj sep jan NQB=äçïÉê=áå=nP=ä~ëí=óÉ~ê= 06 07 08 09 íÜ~å=áå=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=èì~êíÉê=çÑ= OMMTI=êÉÑäÉÅíáåÖ=íÜÉ=Çêçé=áå= áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=íçìêáëãK===lå=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ëÅÉåÉI=ëìêîÉóë=ëÜçï=áåîÉëíçê=~åÇ=ÅçåëìãÉê= ëÉåíáãÉåí=ÇÉÅäáåáåÖ=ê~éáÇäóK=qÜÉ=çåäó=ëáäîÉê=äáåáåÖ=ëÉÉãë=íç=ÄÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÅççäáåÖ=çÑ= êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êëÛ=îÉêó=ÜáÖÜ=~ÅíáîáíóI=êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ=~äãçëí=NMB=~ååì~ä=ÖêçïíÜ=ê~íÉëI=Ü~ë= ÜÉäéÉÇ=êÉÇìÅÉ=éêáÅÉ=éêÉëëìêÉK=qÜÉ=`mf=éÉ~âÉÇ=~í=NNB=áå=OMMU=~åÇ=ëÜçìäÇ=Ñ~ää=íç=äÉëë= íÜ~å=RB=áå=OMMV=~ë=íáÖÜí=Å~é~Åáíó=ìíáäáò~íáçå=É~ëÉë=ïÜÉå=íÜÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=ê~íÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó=Ñ~ääë=íç=~å=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=NB=çê=äÉëëK==qÜ~í=ÇÉÅÉäÉê~íáçå=ïáää=åçí=çåäó=êÉÑäÉÅí= ëçÑíÉê=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇI=Äìí=~äëç=äçïÉê=çáä=éêçÇìÅíáçå=~ë=íÜÉ=r^b=ÅçãéäáÉë=ïáíÜ= êÉÇìÅÉÇ=lmb`=èìçí~ë=áå=~ÇÇáíáçå=íç=áíë=çïå=ëÉäÑJáãéçëÉÇ=êÉÇìÅíáçåëK== = bñíÉêå~ä=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉë=íìêå=áåíç=ÇÉÑáÅáíëK==qÜÉ=ëíÉÉé=Ñ~ää=áå=íÜÉ=çáä=éêáÅÉ=Ü~ë= ê~áëÉÇ=~ï~êÉåÉëë=~Äçìí=r^bÛë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=~åÇ=áåíÉêå~ä=Ä~ä~åÅÉëK==få=OMMVI=íÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä= Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ÅçìäÇ=íìêå=Ñêçã=~=ëìêéäìë=çÑ=NNB=çÑ=dam=íç=~=ÇÉÑáÅáí=çÑ=~äãçëí=Éèì~ä= ã~ÖåáíìÇÉI=ïÜáäÉ=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=Ä~ä~åÅÉ=ïáää=Öç=Ñêçã=~=NVBLdam=ëìêéäìë=íç=~= NRBLdam=ÇÉÑáÅáí=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=êÉÅÉåí=Éëíáã~íÉë=çÑ=áåÇÉéÉåÇÉåí=çÄëÉêîÉêëK==tÜáäÉ= íÜÉëÉ=åìãÄÉêëI=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ã~àçê=ëí~íáëíáÅ~ä=ÇÉÑáÅáÉåÅáÉëI=íÜÉó=åÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëë=é~áåí=~= éáÅíìêÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=åÉï=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖÉë=íç=íÜÉ=Åçìåíêó=ëÜçìäÇ=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ëáíì~íáçå=áå= ÖäçÄ~ä=çáä=ã~êâÉíë=ÅçåíáåìÉ=Ñçê=~=äçåÖ=íáãÉK==qÜÉ=ÑáëÅ~ä=åìãÄÉêëI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=~éé~êÉåíäó= Çç=åçí=áåÅäìÇÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=áåÅçãÉ=éêçÄ~Ääó=çÑ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=NMBLdamI=çå=~ëëìãÉÇ= ä~êÖÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=çÑ=^Äì=aÜ~ÄáI=íÜÉ=ä~êÖÉëí=~åÇ=êáÅÜÉëí=Éãáê~íÉ= United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi Securities Market, All Securities Index, Close, AED World, Energy, Oil, Brent, End of Period, USD

Source: Reuters EcoWin

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 23, 2009-03-23

çÑ=íÜÉ=råáçåK==lå=íÜÉ=çíÜÉê=Ü~åÇI=íÜÉó=ã~ó=~äëç=ìåÇÉêêÉéçêí=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí= ÉñéÉåÇáíìêÉë=çå=ÇÉÑÉåëÉ=éêçÖê~ãë=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=éìêÅÜ~ëÉë=Ñêçã=ÑçêÉáÖå=ëìééäáÉêëK== = açãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâë=ÑÉÉä=íÜÉ= ÅÜáää=çÑ=ÅÜ~åÖáåÖ=ïáåÇëK== råíáä=ä~ëí=ëìããÉê=íÜÉ= éêÉî~áäáåÖ=ãççÇ=ï~ë=Ñçê= 12% íÜÉ=ÇÜáê~ã=íç=ÄêÉ~â=áíë= 10% äçåÖëí~åÇáåÖ=éÉÖ=íç=íÜÉ= 8% Ççää~ê=~åÇ=~ééêÉÅá~íÉ=~ë= 6% É~ëó=ãçåÉí~êó=éçäáÅáÉë= áå=íÜÉ=rp=Ü~Ç=~å= 4% ìåÇÉëáêÉÇ=áåÑä~íáçå~êó= 2% ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=íÜÉ=r^bK==qÜ~í= 0% ãçíáî~íÉÇ=ã~åó= áåîÉëíçêë=íç=éçìê=ãçåÉó= áåíç=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâëK= qÜçëÉ=ÉñéÉÅí~íáçåë=ëÉÉã= íç=Ü~îÉ=ÅÜ~åÖÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ= ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMU= Å~ìëáåÖ=äáèìáÇáíó=ëÜçêí~ÖÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=~ë=ã~åó=áåîÉëíçêë=éìääÉÇ= íÜÉáê=ãçåÉó=çìíK==^ë=~=êÉëìäíI=ëáåÅÉ=ä~íÉ=OMMU=áåíÉêJÄ~åâ=ê~íÉë=Ü~îÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=íáãÉ=áå= ã~åó=óÉ~êë=é~êíÉÇ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉáê=rp=ÅçìåíÉêé~êíëI=ÖçáåÖ=ëÜ~êéäó=ìé=ïÜáäÉ=rp=ê~íÉë=Ü~îÉ= çîÉê~ää=ÖçåÉ=ÇçïåK=^ë=ÇÉãçåëíê~íÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=Öê~éÜ=çå=é~ÖÉ=SI=ÇáêÜ~ã=ê~íÉë=ÑçääçïÉÇ= rp=áåíÉêÄ~åâ=ê~íÉë=ìé=~í=íÜÉ=ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëÉîÉêÉ=ÅêÉÇáí=~åÇ=äáèìáÇáíó=ëèìÉÉòÉ=íÜ~í= ÑçääçïÉÇ=íÜÉ=iÉÜã~å=_êçíÜÉêë=ÇÉÑ~ìäíI=Äìí=ëáåÅÉ=ãáÇ=lÅíçÄÉê=ÇáêÜ~ã=ê~íÉë=Ü~îÉ= êÉã~áåÉÇ=ÉäÉî~íÉÇ=ïÜáäÉ=rp=ê~íÉë=Ü~îÉ=ëìÄëáÇÉÇK==få=êÉëéçåëÉI=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=Ü~ë= éìí=áå=éä~ÅÉ=î~êáçìë=Ñ~ÅáäáíáÉë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=~í=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=APM=ÄáääK=íç=ÜÉäé=Ä~åâë=íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ=äáèìáÇáíó=ëÜçêí~ÖÉ=~åÇ=êÉ~ëëìêÉÇ=ã~êâÉíë=íÜ~í=áí=ëí~åÇë=êÉ~Çó=íç=ëìééçêí=íÜÉ= ëóëíÉã=áÑ=åÉÉÇÉÇK= = i~êÖÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=ëÜçìäÇ=éêçîáÇÉ=~=ÅìëÜáçåK==_~êêáåÖ=~=ÑìêíÜÉê=çáä=éêáÅÉ=Çêçé=~åÇLçê= ÇÉíÉêáçê~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêÉëÉåí=ÄÉ~êáëÜ=ëÉåíáãÉåí=~ãçåÖ=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêëI=ïÉ= ÄÉäáÉîÉ=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=åÉÖ~íáîÉ=ã~êâÉí=êÉ~Åíáçå=íç=íÜÉ=r^b=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉÖáå=íç=ëí~ÄáäáòÉ= ~åÇ=íÜ~í=íÜÉêÉ=ÅçìäÇ=ÄÉ=ëçãÉ=ÄçìåÅÉJÄ~ÅâK==qÜÉ=r^b=áë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=Ü~îÉ=ëìÄëí~åíá~ä= ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=áå=íÜÉ=ê~åÖÉ=çÑ=íç=AOMMJRMM=ÄáääK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉëÉ=~êÉ=éêáî~íÉ=Éëíáã~íÉë= áå=íÜÉ=~ÄëÉåÅÉ=çÑ=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉ=åìãÄÉêë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=çê=~åó=çÑ=áíë= ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=~ÖÉåÅáÉëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=^af^I=íÜÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=~êã=çÑ=íÜÉ=^Äì=aÜ~Äá= ÖçîÉêåãÉåíK=jçëí=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=Éëíáã~íÉë=~êÉ=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=~ÅÅìãìä~íáçå=çÑ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí= ëìêéäìëÉë=çîÉê=ã~åó=óÉ~êë=~åÇ=Åìãìä~íÉÇ=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=áåÅçãÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉëÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåíëK== qÜáë=ã~ó=äÉ~îÉ=~=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí=Éëíáã~íáçå=Éêêçê=~ë=ã~åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=áåîÉëíãÉåíë=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ= ëìÑÑÉêÉÇ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=Çêçé=áå=ÖäçÄ~ä=Éèìáíó=éêáÅÉëK==qÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâÛë=Ä~ä~åÅÉ= ëÜÉÉí=ëÜçïë=çÑÑáÅá~ä=ÑçêÉáÖå=êÉëÉêîÉë=~í=AQR=ÄáääK=áå=lÅíçÄÉê=OMMUI=Ççïå=Ñêçã=AUP=ÄáääK= áå=j~êÅÜK=`çìåíÉêé~êíó=ëí~íáëíáÅë=Ñêçã=_fp=ëÜçï=ÇÉéçëáíë=Ñêçã=~ää=r^b=êÉëáÇÉåíëI= áåÅäìÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâI=~í=AVM=ÄáääK=J==tÜáäÉ=Ñ~ê=Ñêçã=ëã~ääI=ëìÅÜ=áÇÉåíáÑá~ÄäÉ= ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=~êÉ=ëíáää=ãìÅÜ=ëã~ääÉê=íÜ~å=éêáî~íÉ=Éëíáã~íÉë=çÑ=íçí~ä=ïÉ~äíÜ=~Äêç~ÇK= = i~êÖÉ=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=K=r^bÛë=ÉñíÉêå~ä=ÇÉÄí=áë=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=~í=~êçìåÇ=ANQM= ÄáääK=åÉ~êäó=~ää=çÑ=áí=Åçåíê~ÅíÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçêK=lÑ=íÜáë=aìÄ~áI=çïåë=ëçãÉ=ATM=J= AUMÄáääK===^äíÜçìÖÜ=aìÄ~á=áë=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ä~êÖÉëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëÉîÉå=Éãáê~íÉëI=áí=áë=ëíáää=ãìÅÜ= ëã~ääÉê=íÜ~å=^Äì=aÜ~ÄáI=~åÇ=áí=Ü~ë=~äãçëí=ÇÉéäÉíÉÇ=áíë=çáä=çê=Ö~ë=êÉëÉêîÉëK==fíë= ÑçêíìåÉë=çîÉê=êÉÅÉåí=íïç=ÇÉÅ~ÇÉë=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=Äìáäí=çå=íÜÉ=~Äáäáíó=íç=~ííê~Åí=ÄìëáåÉëë= áåíç=áíë=íê~ÇáåÖ=~ÅíáîáíáÉëI=Ñáå~åÅá~ä=ëÉÅíçêI=áåÇìëíêá~ä=ëÉÅíçê=JJ=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=~äìãáåìãI== ~åÇ=ãçêÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=áåíç=íçìêáëã=~åÇ=êÉ~ä=Éëí~íÉK==eçïÉîÉêI=áå=OMMSI=OMMT=~åÇ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ= çÑ=OMMUI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=éêçéÉêíó=Äççã=äçëí=Ä~ëÉ=ïáíÜ=êÉ~äáíóI=~åÇ=ÉñéçëÉÇ=Ä~åâë= íç=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=~=ÇÉÉé=ÇçïåÑ~ää=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíK==bîÉå=íÜçìÖÜ=ãçêíÖ~ÖÉë=ëíáää=êÉéêÉëÉåí=~= êÉä~íáîÉäó=ëã~ää=é~êí=çÑ=íÜÉáê=Ä~ä~åÅÉëI=ÑÉ~êë=~êÉ=íÜ~í=Ä~åâë=Ü~îÉ=äÉåí=ãçåÉó=íç= ÇÉîÉäçéÉêë=íÜ~í=~êÉ=åçï=ÑçäÇáåÖK=qÜÉëÉ=ãçåÉó=Ä~åâë=Ü~Ç=íÜÉãëÉäîÉë=íç=~=ä~êÖÉ= ÇÉÖêÉÉ=ÄçêêçïÉÇ=Ñêçã=~Äêç~ÇI=é~êíáÅìä~êäó=áå=OMMTK===qÜÉó=Ñ~ÅÉ=ä~êÖÉ=êÉé~óãÉåíë= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMVK=== =

20 0 20 4 0 20 5 0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 11

GDP, real change

2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 23, 2009-03-23

_ìí=ïáää=r^bÛë=ä~êÖÉ=êÉëÉêîÉë=ÄÉ=ìëÉÇ=íç=~îÉêí=~åó=ÇÉÑ~ìäí=ëÅÉå~êáç\==^=éçëëáÄäÉ= ÇÉÑ~ìäí=ëÅÉå~êáç=íêáÖÖÉêÉÇ=~=ëíÉÉé=êáëÉ=ìé=íç=NNRM=Äëé=áå=íÜÉ=`ap=ëéêÉ~Çë=çå=íÜÉ=ÇÉÄí= çÑ=aìÄ~á=ÉåíáíáÉë=áå=íÜÉ=Ñ~ää=çÑ=OMMUK==qÜ~í=éêçãéíÉÇ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=çÑ=íÜÉ=r^b=íç= ~ëëìêÉ=ã~êâÉíë=íÜ~í=áí=ïáää=åçí=êÉã~áå=áÇäÉK==mìêëì~åí=íç=íÜáë=áí=ÄçìÖÜí=ANM=Äáää=çÑ= ëçîÉêÉáÖå=ÄçåÇë=êÉÅÉåíäó=áëëìÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=çÑ=aìÄ~á=~åÇ=áåÇáÅ~íÉÇ= ïáääáåÖåÉëë=íç=Äìó=ãçêÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ÑìíìêÉK==^ë=~=êÉëìäí=íÜÉ=`ap=ëéêÉ~Çë=Å~ãÉ=ÇçïåI=Äìí= êÉã~áåë=ÉäÉî~íÉÇ=ëíáääK==tÉ=ÄÉäáÉîÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ã~ó=ÄÉ=Éñ~ÖÖÉê~íáåÖ=íÜÉ=êáëâ=çÑ=ã~àçê= ÇÉÑ~ìäíë=Äó=Ä~åâë=~åÇ=çíÜÉê=ÅçããÉêÅá~ä=ÉåíáíáÉë=çÑ=aìÄ~áI=Äìí=ëÉÉ=ëçãÉ=ãÉêáíë=íç=íÜÉ= ~êÖìãÉåí=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=Öì~ê~åíÉÉ=çÑ=^Äì=aÜ~Äá=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=ÅçìäÇ=ìåÇÉê=ëéÉÅá~ä=~ÇîÉêëÉ= ÅáêÅìãëí~åÅÉë=~åÇ=áå=ëçãÉ=Å~ëÉë=éêçîÉ=íç=ÄÉ=äÉëë=íÜ~å=~=NMMB=ëìééçêíK= = JGJ= = páåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=OMMUI=áåîÉëíçê=ëÉåíáãÉåí=çå=íÜÉ=r^b=Ü~ë=íìêåÉÇ=åÉÖ~íáîÉK=qÜ~í=áë= êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=åçí=çåäó=áå=çìíÄçìåÇ=Å~éáí~ä=ÑäáÖÜíI=Äìí=~äëç=áå=ëÜ~êéäó=ïáÇÉåáåÖ=çÑ=`ap=ëéêÉ~Çë=çå= aìÄ~áI=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇ=ä~êÖÉëí=~åÇ=êáÅÜÉëí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëÉîÉå=Éãáê~íÉë=ÅçãéêáëáåÖ=íÜÉ=råáçåK==tÜáäÉ=íÜ~í= ã~ó=êÉÑäÉÅí=~=íÉãéçê~êó=çîÉêëÜççíáåÖI=áí=áë=~äëç=ÅäÉ~ê=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=ÑìåÇ~ãÉåí~äë=Ñçê=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êë= ÉñíêÉãÉäó=Äìçó~åí=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ÇÉîÉäçéãÉåí=çÑ=íÜ~í=Éãáê~íÉ=áå=é~êíáÅìä~êIáë=~Äçìí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉI=~ë= • íçìêáëã=áë=Üáí=Äó=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ççïåíìêå= • aìÄ~áÛë=êçäÉ=~ë=~å=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=íê~ÇÉ=ÜìÄ=ëìÑÑÉêë=Ñêçã=ëäçïÉê=áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä=íê~ÇÉ= • qÜÉ=Äìêëí=çÑ=~å=çîÉêî~äìÉÇ=éêçéÉêíó=ã~êâÉí=áåÅìêë=äçëëÉë=çå=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=Ä~åâëK== ^äíÜçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=éçíÉåíá~ä=Ñçê=ëìÅÜ=ÅÜ~åÖÉë=ã~ó=ëáåÅÉ=äçåÖ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=Ñ~ÅíçêÉÇ=áåíç=ã~êâÉí= éÉêÅÉéíáçå=çÑ=r^bÛë=ÅêÉÇáíïçêíÜáåÉëëI=íÜÉ=íìêåJ~êçìåÇ=ëÉÉãë=íç=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=Ñ~ëíÉê=~åÇ=ëÜ~êéÉê= íÜ~å=~åíáÅáé~íÉÇ=Äó=ãçëí=çÄëÉêîÉêëK==píáääI=ã~åó=áåîÉëíçêë=í~âÉ=ÅçåÑáÇÉåÅÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=éêÉëìãÉÇ= ä~êÖÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåí=çÑ=^Äì=aÜ~ÄáI=Äìí=äáííäÉ=áë=âåçïå=~Äçìí=íÜÉáê=äáèìáÇáíóK= ^ë=ëìÅÜI=ëçãÉ=ÇçìÄíë=ÅçìäÇ=êÉã~áå=êÉÖ~êÇáåÖ=íÜÉ=~Äáäáíó=çÑ=íÜÉ=~ìíÜçêáíáÉë=çÑ=r^b=íç=Ä~áäçìí= ~ää=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉÄíçêë=îáëJ¶Jîáë=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÅêÉÇáíçêëK=== = qÜÉ=råáçå=~ë=ëìÅÜ=áë=ê~íÉÇ=çåäó=Äó=jççÇóÛë=áå=^~PK=cáíÅÜ=o~íáåÖë=~åÇ=pí~åÇ~êÇ=C=mççêë= ê~íÉ=^Äì=aÜ~Äá=çåäóK=^ää=çÑ=íÜÉã=Ü~îÉ=ã~áåí~áåÉÇ=íÜÉáê=ê~íáåÖë=ëáåÅÉ=íÜÉ=ÖäçÄ~ä=Ñáå~åÅá~ä= íìêãçáä=êÉ~ÅÜÉÇ=íÜÉ=r^b=áå=ä~íÉ=OMMUK==qÜ~í=~ëëÉëëãÉåí=êÉÖ~êÇë=íÜÉ=ëçîÉêÉáÖåK=^ë=êÉÖ~êÇë= ÖÉåÉê~ä=Åçìåíêó=êáëâI=Äó=Åçåíê~ëíI=ã~êâÉíë=ã~ó=Ü~îÉ=~=éçáåí=íÜ~í=íÜáë=Ü~ë=åçï=í~âÉå=~=Üáí=~ë= êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=êÉÅÉåí=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ëéêÉ~Çë=çå=ÇÉÄí=áëëìÉÇ=Äó=ÉåíáíáÉëI=ã~áåäó=ÇçãáÅáäÉÇ=áå= aìÄ~áI=çîÉê=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=óÉ~êK== == = =

hÉó=ê~íáçë

Resilience

OMMV

mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåF damLÅ~éáí~=EAF

13

NB

fåÑä~íáçå=

RB

`ìêêK=^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF

7

dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam

OOB

5

Liquidity

3 1 -1

Absence of event risk

NT JSB

mÉÉêë nì~í~ê== hìï~áí p~ìÇá=^ê~Äá~

Macro balance

JNRB

_ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

=pCmW=åçí=ê~íÉÇ cáíÅÜW==åçí=ê~íÉÇ

9

QPPQU

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF

bñíÉêå~ä=o~íáåÖë

11

QIT

UAE

Information

Average EM

qÜÉ=ÅäçëÉê=íç=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíêÉ=íÜÉ=ïçêëÉ=áë=íÜÉ=ëÅçêÉ> dê~éÜW=r^bDë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ=áë=ëíêçåÖÉê=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=~ää= ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí=ÅçìåíêáÉëK=qÜÉ=èì~äáíó=~åÇ=~î~áä~Äáäáíó=çÑ= Ç~í~=áë=ÜçïÉîÉê=ëíáää=ïÉ~âI=ÇÉëéáíÉ=êÉÅÉåí=óÉ~êë= áãéçêîÉãÉåíëK=qÜÉ=ãÉ~ëìêÉ=çÑ=äáèìáÇáíó=ÉñÅäìÇÉë=~ëëìãÉÇ= ä~êÖÉ=Äìí=ìåÇáëÅäçëÉÇ=ÑçêÉáÖå=~ëëÉíë=çÑ=^Äì=aÜ~ÄáDë=ëçîÉêÉáÖå= ïÉ~äíÜ ÑìåÇ

3

=

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis March 23, 2009-03-23

hÉó=Ç~í~W OMMQ OMMR dam=ErpAF NMR NPO VITB UIOB damI=êÉ~ä=ÅÜ~åÖÉ fåîÉëíãÉåíëLdam OMB OMB JMIQB UINB _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam dçîí=ÇÉÄíLdam NOITB NQIQB `mf=áåÑä~íáçå=EBF RIMB SIOB NMIRB NTISB jçåÉó=ÇÉã~åÇ=EBF TRB píçÅâ=éêáÅÉë=EBÅÜ~åÖÉF fåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë OIUB QITB bñÅÜK=o~íÉ=EAF PIST PIST qê~ÇÉLdam=EBF QNB QNB APU ARQ láä=éêáÅÉ=E_êÉåíF _áääáçåë=rp=A ORIQ PPIS bñéçêí=çÑ=ÖççÇë NTIP OMIP fãéçêíë=çÑ=ÖççÇë líÜÉêW NIP NIU `ìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí NMIS OQIR ===B=çÑ=dam NMB NUB kÉí=caf TIU TIN JOIO JPIS iç~å=êÉé~óãÉåíë JNPIR JONIP kÉí=çíÜÉê=Å~éáí~ä=Ñäçïë OIT SIS _~ä~åÅÉ=çÑ=é~óãÉåíë qçí~ä=ÇÉÄí ORIM QNIM ===çLï=ëÜçêí=íÉêã=ÇÉÄí NQIM OPIM pçìêÅÉëW=lñÑçêÇ=bÅçåçãáÅë=~åÇ=pb_=Éëíáã~íÉë o~íáåÖ=Üáëíçêó cáíÅÜ=EÉçóF pCm=EÉçóF qóéÉ=çÑ=ÖçîÉêåãÉåíW kÉñí=ÉäÉÅíáçåë líÜÉêW i~íÉëí=m`=ÇÉ~ä oÉÅÉåí=fjc=éêçÖê~ãë

OMMS NTM VIQB OPB NOIMB NQISB VIPB ONIOB STB RIQB PIST PTB ASR

OMMT NVV TITB OQB VIRB NSIOB NNINB NOINB JQOB RINB PIST QNB ATP

OMMU ORP TIMB OTB NMIRB NQIVB NNIMB PMITB ROB PIOB PIST QMB AVU

OMMV OMO MIUB PMB JSIPB ONISB RIMB NTIMB

OMNM OPV OIRB OVB JPIUB NUIOB QIMB JVITB

OMNN OSS PIMB OTB JOIUB NSIQB PIRB NUIMB

PIOB PIST PUB AQR

NIPB PIST PSB ARV

NIRB PIST PTB AST

PVIS OQIM OIP PSIM ONB TIM JNMIU NTIQ QVIT UOIM OUIM

QVIP PNIT OIN PTIM NVB JNIQ JNTIU JQSIU JOVIM NPPIM QQIM

SNIP PVIV OIN QRIM NUB RIN JNUIO JORIU SIO NQRIM RQIM

PUIM PUIV PQIQ JPNIP JNRB RIN JNUIQ QVIU RIP NRMIM RUIM

QSIT PVIM JMIO JNIV JNB RIN JNVIV OOIR RIV NSMIM SMIR

RQIO QOIV MIT UIP PB RIN JOMIQ NPIP SIQ NSRIM SPIM

k^ k^ kç=ÉäÉÅíÉÇ=ÄçÇáÉë kK^K kK^K

C o n s u m e r p r ic e s

In te r b a n k r a te s 20

6 5

US in t e r b a n k

U A E A E IB O R

15 Percent pa.

Percent

4 3 2 1 0

10

U S Fed

2005

2006

2007

5

2008

U n it e d A r a b E m i r a t e s , In t e r b a n k R a t e s , A E IB O R , 1 M o n0t h , F ix i n g , A E D U n it e d S t a t e s , P o l ic y R a t e s , F e d F u n d s E f f e c t iv e R a t e , A v e r a g2e0, 0U4 S D U n it e d S t a t e s , I n t e r b a n k R a t e s , B B A L I B O R , 1 M o n t h , F i x i n g , U S D G e n e ra l C P I S o u r c e : R e u t e r s E c o W in

2005

2006

2007

House Rent S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

A b u D h a b i , A l l S e c u r i t i e s In d e x

E x c h a n g e r a te s

7000

6 ,0 5 ,5

6000

5 ,0 Index

5000

4 ,5 4 ,0

4000 3000

3 ,5 3 ,0

2000

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007 1000

2002

E U R /A E D U S D /A E D

2004

2006

2008 S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

=

4